Satirical Call for Extreme Market
Now build out a 6 month +-7% range, take Ethereum down 50%, kill the high beta trash, bomb Iran again but this time close the Strait of Hormuz, and then rally $ES_F twice in a row off the 200 dma. https://t.co/ykFk2TIWMU
Bitcoin Spikes in War, Crashes in Peace
$BTCUSD: -45% on no war $BTCUSD: +4.3% on war: The chaos hedge is working perfectly https://t.co/xUYlRbhtuw
Current ES_F
Not for nothing but any other time in say the last 8 years of Fintwit the current broadening $ES_F chart would have hundreds of 07-08 analogs on it.
Durable Moves Allow Either Repression or Disinflation, Not Both
Nothing new here, and cycles matter + drivers/duration, but I'd note in more durable moves you can repress or disinflate, but you can't do both. The room for repression is def far less, the durability and duration of the drivers in...
Weekly Macro TA Setup Beats Daily Oil Spike
Reiterating this remains one of my more favorite TA setups in macro. You could add the Oil setup to this but it was on the daily, the weekly I find the best given they take significant time to develop or the...
Claude Ignores Jokes, Sticks to Original Question
When you try to slide in a joke while 'conversing' with Claude only to have it respond w a one line answer to the original question https://t.co/rScgPSE3oT
Simple Crowd‑contrarian Setups with Defined Risk Levels
So there's no exact playbook for trading against the crowd but I try to share some decent probability setups and wanted to attach notes to them. 1 thing I'd say is it doesn't need to be super complex, but you do...
Silver Rally Driven by Speculation, Not Fundamentals
At the time this trade had zero catalysts other than $JPM calling for $30 and everyone chasing $Silver at 110+. It's never hwere the crowd is looking/chasing and if you study the thread there were months of absolutely nothing happening outside...
CEO Executes Double‑Digit Million Dollar Sales at Highs
What's interesting about this is those sales at the high's were also from the CEO and in the double digit M range. $TTD https://t.co/QSWxF4cpQX
Trade Against Crowd, Wait for Strong Risk‑Reward Setup
This is what trading against the crowd using behavior and sorta simple TA looks like I'd add to this the low in oil came as Silver was topping out too but more importantly is you can't predict the future vs waiting...
Significant XLF Selling Spike Mirrors $GS Trend
Related to the $GS post, subset of selling in XLF in the last 30 days. https://t.co/iuSWLKwbpm