Warsh Praises Greenspan, Sidesteps Recent Fed Chairs
Warsh, in his first speech as Fed Chair, references Alan Greenspan's contributions -- not those of his successors. Not coincidentally, I would think, Warsh has been critical of Bernanke's, Yellen's and Powell's policies. He only says he's known 5 of the former Fed Chairs, some closely (Paul Volcker being the fifth)
Anthropic Likens AI Race to a Modern Manhattan Project
Anthropic frames the AI race as a Manhattan Project in a new white paper without calling it such. It helps make sense of the dramatic AI buildout. https://t.co/Ls5tbnCpPn https://t.co/t5NbDwYSSQ
ChatGPT Needs
Yes, I use ChatGPT more than @grok — but only because I often have to ask it 3 times to get a decent answer, while Grok usually nails it on the first try. — this tweet has been edited by Grok...
Waller Warns Productivity Surge Could Raise Borrowing Costs
Fed's Waller: starts by trashing Goolsbee's model -- anticipated productivity will be associated with higher borrowing costs if 'everyone' scrambles to invest, acting as a dampener.
1990s Productivity Ambiguity Led Greenspan to Delay Rate Hikes
Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee: the productivity again in the 1990s was not clear in the data. Greenspan imputed it based on other data and held back raising rates. It was only clear with hindsight.
Fed Official Questions if Shock Is Temporary or Lasting
San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly: "in a shock, how do you know whether it's temporary or persistent? [...] I'm trying not to use the word 'transitory', but you know what it refers to" 🤷♂️
Fed Seeks Level Playing Field for Banks Vs. Non‑banks
Fed's Michelle Bowman: the regulatory environment has pushed credit to non-bank financial institutions banks. Proposed changes are aimed to have traditional banks better compete.
Regulators Block Bank Liquidity Requests, Scarce Reserves Inefficient
How to shrink the balance sheet? @DuffieDarrell Due to regulatory pressure, large banks have not come to the Fed to get liquidity. Making reserves scarce again would be 'massively inefficient and stupid' (referencing Fed's Chris Waller's recent speech)
AI Drives Local Production, Undermining Globalization
Globalization is a victim of AI (because local production is more cost effective) @marvinjbarth @HooverInst
From 80-Year Peaceful System to Uncertain Future
.@CondoleezzaRice: we are in transition we have left behind an 80 year-ld system that did not believe in 'zero sum', and did not pursue wars over resources. What's ahead is less known. @HooverInst
Fed Must Address Fiscal Sustainability, Says Mike Levy
The Fed should be able to talk about fiscal sustainability, MIke Levy says (crediting @B_Eichengreen for bringing it up) as it affects monetary policy. @HooverInst
Bond Investors, Fed Use Different Treasury Valuation Models
Bond investors and Fed policy makers use different models on how to look at Treasuries, @HannoLustig says. @HooverInst
Debt Service Ratio, Not Total Debt, Drives Markets
Eichengreen rightfully points out that total debt is far less relevant than debt service ratio. Large balances make for good headlines, but don't correlate with markets. @B_Eichengreen @HooverInst
Dollar's Reserve Role Erodes as Allies Shift Amid NATO Tensions
'US dollar as reserve currency has been in long-term decline. Lists a long list of contributing factors, notably also states that if history is any guide, countries keep reserves with allies, and NATO tensions may negative impact Treasury holdings.' @B_Eichengreen...
Regional Fed Presidents Guard Against Groupthink
David Wilcox: regional Federal Reserve Presidents play crucial role in avoiding groupthink at the Fed. @HooverInst