Powell Hints at Skipping SEP, New Chair Needed
Powell: if we ever were to skip an SEP (Summary of Economic Projections), this would be a good one. We just don't know. Um, the Fed does have the power to skip the SEP. But I gather it takes a new Fed chair to change bad habits.
Markets Signal Persistent Oil Shock Beyond Short-Term
The market is gradually pricing in that this is more than a short-term oil shock. Below: white: oil futures curve, current blue: oil futures curve, a week ago orange: oil futures curve, 6 months ago https://t.co/8wQF3jaa8y
European Aid to Ukraine Fuels Iran War Effort
~200 Ukrainian anti-drone experts now deployed to the Middle East isn’t happening in isolation—Kyiv’s ability to provide that expertise depends heavily on continued European support at home. In that sense, Europe supports the war in Iran. https://t.co/XxqEEUt8f4
Fragmented Alliances Will Boost Global Security Risk Premium
"The ongoing rewriting of the rules of world order and the resulting fragmentation of global alliances in defense, trade and finance will raise the security risk premium across asset classes and geographies." @ctorresreporter writes in https://t.co/48SyYtQz8S
Analysts Predict Future Hikes Already Passed
A hallmark about most fancy analysts, including many I respect, is that they don't appear to be filling up at the gas station. Most of them talk about future price hikes in the coming days, not realizing that they have...
Regime Change Impossible; Short‑Term Pain Required for Strategy
A discussion with @CondoleezzaRice — she visited the White house a week ago. Very helpful as she makes it clear that regime change is not only not the goal, but not even feasible, pointing out that autocratic regimes are...
Markets View Iran Conflict as Brief, Not Prolonged Crisis
Rational arguments are made as to why the Iran war won't be over soon, even as it "should" be over to prevent an economic calamity. Yet the market prices this as a temporary shock. What gives? What's the market seeing that...
Deutsche Bank Repeats Risky Credit Expansion Despite Past Missteps
When the financial crisis was heating up, geniuses at Deutsche Bank opted to buy more "highly rated" tranches of mortgage backed securities. With that in mind, when I see that DB says they are expanding their private credit exposure, I...
AI Cuts Chores, Amplifies Mental Overload and Burnout
Will AI give you lots of free time? The opposite is happening: AI allows you to skip unproductive tasks, with the result that you constantly focus on complex topics, risking cognitive overload and burnout. https://t.co/mKYhukwThs
Crude and Gas Prices Mirror Each Other After Nine Days
9 trading days into the conflict, crude and gas price trajectory has been very similar oil: https://t.co/O0orfuxpnw
Two-Year Oil Futures Spike Since
Oil price futures, 2 years out: White: current blue: a week ago purple: 6 months ago Source: Bloomberg. https://t.co/IjF2clfIGe
Markets Price Supply Shock, Real Rates Rise
FWIW/IMHO: markets are pricing in a supply shock. Different from the pandemic, no expectation of rate cuts that wouldn't help. Real rates up.
Fed's Massive Balance Sheet, Not Warsh, Needs Trimming
"Kevin Warsh Isn’t Crazy, the Fed’s Big Balance Sheet Is" The obvious path to shrink the Fed's balance sheet is to go back to a corridor system. It worked for over 100 years as @josephsternberg points out. The problem: the establishment...
EU Debt Issuance
If the EU were only able to issue its own debt, imagine the possibilities… Yeah, imagine if you gave EU bureaucrats the power to spend an astronomical amount in addition to its power to regulate https://t.co/KAqbSOG71R