Apple Signals Pricing as New Margin Tool Amid Supply Costs
I indicated this exact thing on @T_h_e_Circuit episode on Apple Dec Q results. Via MS and Apple's 10-Q: "Apple is explicitly flagging pricing as a margin-management lever for the first time in a decade. In its latest 10 Q filing, the company points to “industry-wide supply constraints and increasing costs for components such as advanced semiconductors, storage (NAND) and memory (DRAM)” as drivers of volatility in net sales and gross margins. What stands out, however, is Apple’s explicit acknowledgment – also a first in the past decade – that “product pricing and product pricing actions that the Company may take in response to such [supply constraints and cost] pressures” could be part of its response. Historically, Apple has limited its pricing commentary to competitive dynamics, and pricing has typically been a last resort when navigating inflationary environments like the one today."
AI Interfaces Will Replace SaaS Dashboards Soon
Codex is pretty great, and it's an interface battle right now between Codex and Claude/Cowork. Battle for the business/productivity interface keeps heating up. Once these can connect to all your apps/services, there is little reason to visit your SaaS...
Semiconductor Contracts Overhaul Memory and Storage Naming
Only if you have covered semis, and been through the scars of memory and storage, can you fully grasp how big of a change this is for mem and storage names. Really, the entirety of semis supply chain contracts are...
Industry Shifts Boost Intel’s Momentum
For a brief moment. Honestly, this is wild. A lot of momentum and specific industry dynamics are starting to swing in favor of $INTC. https://t.co/32eDESc5Yf
AI Compute Supplier Contracts Undergoing
More people need to pick up on this fundamental contract change highlighted on $SNDK earnings. Time to rethink everything you thought you knew about supplier contracts related to AI compute/infra. No paywall :) @DiligenceStack https://t.co/iagsiKBdOI
SNDK Highlights Predictable, Less Cyclical Business Model
$SNDK prepared remarks. "More predictable and less cyclical business." True for memory names as well. https://t.co/7oBUPr0Itp
Apple Beats Estimates, Shows Broad Segment Strength
$AAPL this is a clean beat with broad strength. iPhone +22%, Services +16%, China +28%, gross margin 49.3%, and the $100B buyback. If management’s call commentary does not walk down June-quarter expectations, this should read bullish.
Memory and Storage Firms Enjoy Soaring Gross Margins
The continued era of margin expansion for memory and storage players. $SNDK gross margin 78.4% $WDC gross margin 50.2%
Microsoft's AI Spend Secures Enterprise Agent Stack
Full report on $MSFT now up @DiligenceStack. Now all three CSP growth thesis reports are finalized. The durability of the cycle foundation set, so we can focus on tracking progress now :) Microsoft’s AI Capex Is Buying the Enterprise Agent...
MediaTek's ASIC Revenue Set to Outpace Entire Company
My custom ASIC market report is holding well on things I outlined for MediaTek as an opportunity. Revenue projections for MTK in 2028 just for custom ASIC could be more than total company revenue FY 2025. MediaTek trekking...
AI Infrastructure Drives Explosive Step‑Function Cloud Backlog Growth
The chart shows the cloud backlog story moving from steady accumulation to step-function growth, with the most recent quarters suggesting the AI infrastructure cycle is now converting into contracted demand at a much larger scale. https://t.co/RYugYQJg5L
Big Tech Shifts to Usage‑Based Intelligence Utility Model
MSFT, GOOG, AMZN all insinuating consumption/usage-based business models. Welcome to the intelligence utility era, friends. https://t.co/cspnwjWdqN
Microsoft Call Shows Strong Inference Margins
Q on the MSFT call. The answer, my friend, is inference margins are VERY good. https://t.co/7UtLynInd8
Compute Limits Revenue: Build More Capacity Fast
Hyperscalers' revenue all constrained because of compute constraints. When you run an AI hotel, and there is a massive line waiting for rooms, you build more hotels as fast as you can. Compute = revenue.
Qualcomm Announces Entry Into Custom ASIC Market
$QCOM dropped this new nugget on the call. They are officially in the custom ASIC game. Rumors had swirled they were engaged with Google (speculative, but it's likely Google on TPUs). I expect more at FA day...
Google Cloud Revenue Jumps 63%, Backlog Nearly Doubles
$GOOG 👀 "Google Cloud revenues grew 63% with backlog nearly doubling quarter on quarter to over $460 billion."
AWS Hits 28% Growth, Chips Hit $20B Run Rate
$AMZN “AWS is growing 28% (our fastest growth in 15 quarters) on a very large base, our chips business topped a $20 billion revenue run rate (growing triple digits year-over-year)" Folks were hoping for 30+ % but still growing.
Designers Choose EMIB Over TSMC for Strategic Benefits
Thanks Gemini lol. I used "strategic bridge" as a frame for EMIB intentionally but can't find the exact report. Joy. Gemini at least somewhat helpful. As @austinsemis and I will outline soon, there are very good reasons designers...
AI Boom Drives Hyperscaler Growth Despite Low Enterprise Adoption
Assuming the AI cycle will again prove durable today, post-hyperscaler earnings. AWS hopefully +30% growth Azure hopefully +40% growth GCP hopefully still +40% Eyes on if capex is raised again... Less than 7% enterprises deploy AI at any kind of scale...
OpenAI and AWS Discuss Compute, Infra, Token Budgets
Met some interesting folks from OpenAI at AWS event today. Some good discussions around compute/infra/token budgets, etc.
Tranium Boosts Inference Margins, Driving OpenAI’s Focus
Given what we have been seeing/hearing on TPU/Tranium inference economics, margins are even better (inference margins are high to begin with) but OpenAI emphasizing Tranium is partially also for better margins.
AWS Deal Boosts Confidence in Amazon’s Growth Thesis
Wrote this growth thesis on $AMZN driven by @awscloud before this OpenAI deal. This only gives me far more confidence in the AWS growth story. https://t.co/nNOw2zxeuB
OpenAI Highlights Tight Model‑AWS Integration Advantage
Emphasizing the tight training of the model to the harness seems to be a touted advantage from folks here from OpenAI on the AWS relationship. https://t.co/xtmgEHmecU
Customers Demand OpenAI on Trusted AWS Platform
Commentary here by Matt Garmin, customers have been asking us for this for a long time. They wanted to run OpenAI, but in the environment they trust = AWS. This positioning by @benthompson is also right. https://t.co/5MmOPIHecH
Custom ASICs Ensure Long-Term Flexibility on AWS
Here at @AWS event, and included in @sama commentary on the announcement of integration on AWS, emphasized bringing workloads to AWS and not having to worry about what compute infra. This is why custom ASICs are key long-term.
Customers Demand Exact Delivery Times for Better Scheduling
@FedEx you really need a way to track exact time a package will be delivered so can be ready to jump of a zoom call/meeting to go sign for the package.
Ben's Intel Defense Redeemed: Key TPU Takeaways From Cloud Next
Was a good discussion. Should have named it Ben's redemption for defending Intel since day 1 of the pod in 2023 lol. Also, sharing all I learned from TPU discussions at Cloud Next.
AI Success Vs. Pilot Stagnation: Report Coming Soon
I’m collecting a good sample of customer success stories with AI in enterprise that is encouraging around adoption and ROI. I’m also collecting a good sample of stories where AI is stuck in “pilot” purgatory. Interesting times. Report coming soon.
Intel's CPU Foundry Must Match TSMC to Meet Demand
I still maintain my CPU foundry of choice thesis here for $INTC. They don't have to be better than TSMC, just parity, and increasingly aid to fill CPU demand. https://t.co/dKqm16myKH
AMD Likely to Use Intel Foundry Amid Capacity Crunch
I’m not going to die on this hill, for a ton of reasons lol but hard to see AMD not making CPUs at Intel Foundry before too long. Capacity is scarce, Intel is the floor space to ramp capacity.
Intel Boosts Margins by Selling Salvaged Edge-Die Chips
Got some clarity from Intel IR on additional lift to margins. Intel got an unexpected margin lift from better yield salvage. Chips that would normally have been lower-value edge-die on the wafer were binned down and still sold into usable...
Morgan Stanley's Cynical Intel Call Misses Major Upside
MS is taking a L on their post-earnings note on Intel.. I get some of the risk reward debate, but cmon. "We have missed a large move here at EW, and we aren't trying to be stubborn - we just remain...
CPU Resurgence Fuels Gains for Intel, AMD, ARM, Qualcomm
$INTC, $AMD, $ARM, $QCOM all about to open higher on the great CPU resurgence. Expectations are $QCOM fleshes out their data center CPU/accelerator strategy soon.
Intel Emerges as the Go‑to CPU Foundry
$INTC because they are the only foundry who has line of sight to manufacturing expansion short-term. That, plus what I have been sharing for some time on my thesis Intel becomes the CPU foundry of choice for many. https://t.co/dKqm16myKH
Graviton Win Fuels $5B AWS CPU Revenue Growth
Solid win for Graviton, the most mature custom Arm CPU program of any hyperscaler. This business is around ~5B annualized revenue for AWS, and this will help escalate that number. AWS needs more CPUs. I know a foundry...
Intel's Server CPU TAM Set to Quadruple by 2030
Definitely glad I never gave up on $INTC. Still execution milestones to watch, but as we anticipate the server CPU TAM to from ~$25b this year to ~$95b in our base case in 2030 it's greenfield dollar expansion. ...
Intel's CPU Surge Powers Sixth Straight Guidance Beat
Ah the mighty agentic CPU surge. Good for $INTC. Solid beat, guidance is great, six consecutive quarters of beating guidance.
Exploring AI and Infrastructure at Google Next
Off to Google Next to spend a few days digging into all things AI and AI infra. https://t.co/EJhpRAF6nX
Intel Foundry Event Showcases Early Foundations Laid
This was from an Intel Foundry event we were at this time last year. Ground work was being laid. https://t.co/gHzErpfhB4
IREN Should Remain Power Landlord, Not Neocloud
Lot's of people harping on $IREN because of this, and it's fair. In my report on neoclouds/power landlords, you can argue $IREN should just be a power landlord, not try and be a neocloud. https://t.co/ZqN97xWAFI
AI Workloads Justify Rising Cost per Transistor
We all knew the cost per transistor was likely to go up in the angstrom era. If it weren't for AI workloads, the leading edge would have been much harder to justify the cost increase. Full report: Foundry Economics...
Tim Cook's Greatest Legacy: Preserving Apple’s Core Culture
Tim Cook will deservedly get a great deal of credit for helping Apple scale into one of the most powerful economic machines in the world. But I think an equally important part of his legacy is cultural. His job was not...
John Ternus Drives Apple’s Full‑Stack Growth Flywheel
Good of time as any to recirculate this. Which is now the growth flywheel John Ternus will lead. Apple: The Full Stack Compunder https://t.co/JOdLgVdVhl
Apple's New Leadership: Ternus CEO, Cook Chairman
Sort of how we felt it would go. John Ternus CEO of Apple, and Tim Cook to Chairman. Johny Srouji is also now Chief Hardware Officer. Apple is in good hands.
800 VDC Shift Heightens Data Center Labor Shortage
The labor challenge when it comes to new data center builds is rightly getting better attention today. I covered that at length in this report and the shift to 800 VDC will amplify this as well. This will be...
Agentic AI Adds $1.2B to CPU Substrate Market, Shortage Deepens
The one area I did not go deep in my CPU report. Morgan Stanley on the ABF substrate demand tied to the CPU TAM expansion. - Agentic AI to broaden the Server CPU ABF Substrate TAM by US$1.2B: - ABF Substrate under-supply...
Server CPUs Drive Volume and Revenue Growth
That is largely server CPU only so all agentic increase in volume and dollars and general purpose servers.
AVGO Leads in SerDes; MRVL Eyes Google LPU
Agree with this from the JPM note on $AVGO. For at least the time being who has the best SerDes... On TPU / $MRVL it's not for TPU but possible LPU like product for $GOOG https://t.co/fZx7brNrka
Report Still Holds Up After TSMC Earnings
Yep, I detailed in depth in this report. Even going through it post-TSMC earnings, this report is holding up very well. https://t.co/C0GIvgrEll
Agentic CPUs Forecast Hits $100B by 2030, Consensus Forms
Morgan Stanley's report on agentic CPUs has a TAM expansion forecast in line with mine from a month ago. I thought I was crazy for saying it will reach ~$100B in 2030, and now that is becoming consensus. https://t.co/jjdrB3k1Bt