Memory Supply Chain Faces Growing Constraints, Market Unaware
The memory point is not the only interesting comment here, but we have had a range of supply chain chats on memory, and I don't think the market fully grasps what's coming. We are stacking constraints at this point. This from UBS. https://t.co/E4K06gcO9N
Tech Giants Wield Supply Chains to Crush Competition
Not just Apple making it hard on competition via supply chain power, but NVIDIA and Broadcom also. I outlined all this in my Master of the Supply Chain report. https://t.co/9ZCdGgQZVs
Memory Market Focus Shifts to Duration Over Demand
New report in the @DiligenceStack. Memory market update and sharing the framework for our tracking model of the cycle's durability. The Next Debate in Memory Is Duration, Not Demand https://t.co/gB1OsgGpBW
Prediction Validated: Multiple Supply Chains Confirm Forecast
This was what I predicted. I've heard the same as well via multiple supply chain channels.
MediaTek Pushes 400G Copper Limits; Optical Next
Good discussion here on copper/optical with @mediatek. They are pushing the limits with NPC (near package copper) and CPC (co-packaged copper) at 400G per lane, with distinct efficiencies in those solutions. But past that, most likely optical NPO/CPO.
MediaTek's Flexible IP Strategy Positions It for Customer‑Owned Tooling
Being flexible, customer friendly, and willing to work with as little or as much customer owned IP the customer wants is an approach @mediatek does seem well positioned for. If you believe customer owned tooling becomes a thing. They seem competitive....
Mediatek's Custom XPU Gains Edge via TSMC Ties
This may be the money slide for @mediatek on custom XPU solutions. One area I do believe they have a distinct advantage is their privileged relationship with TSMC. https://t.co/2dIFSrVRMz
MediaTek Unveils XPU Within Broader Custom Solution Stack
The XPU is one part of what is now becoming a custom solutions approach (not just the compute ASIC) but @mediatek showing what they have been investing in across the custom solution stack. Hadn’t seen many of these details before....
Diverse Supply Chains Boost Customer Confidence, MediaTek Shows
In a supply chain world of constraints having a diverse supply chain and key partners gives customers higher confidence in execution. @mediatek showing that depth as an advantage for their datacenter efforts. https://t.co/OMAXc4kkPE
MediaTek's Decade-Long Data Center XPU Efforts Unveiled
Getting into the guts of @MediaTek data center/custom XPU details but this slide is informative of market work they have been doing in this space since 2011. Expecting more details on SerDes, advanced packaging, fabric, and their networking capabilities. https://t.co/OWT2MbypXK
January Launch Hits Substack Tech Top‑20 Bestseller
Wild stuff that we launched this in January of this year, and already top 20 in best sellers in tech on Substack. https://t.co/3P1v1ikB0L
Supply Chain Memory Issues Set to Worsen Next Year
Came across some interesting things from supply chain friendlies on memory. And... Not going to get better anytime soon. Next year will be worse than this year.
Nvidia‑Marvell Tie‑up Could Lock Supply Chain via Custom XPU Racks
Per the $NVDA + $MRVL investment... I do wonder if this also opens the door to $NVDA selling CPU racks to custom XPUs made by $MRVL for hyperscale customers. Obvsiously, it does help them lock up more parts of the...
Yearly Blood Panels Enable Adaptive, Sustainable Health Tracking
This is all true. But, the blood panel (and doing that yearly) and tracking to my health metrics, and a possible nutrition data set, both things that need to adapt as you age could be a sustainable value proposition.
Generating $2B/Month, Outpacing Internet Era Titans
"We are now generating $2B in revenue per month. At this stage, we are growing revenue four times faster than the companies who defined the Internet and mobile eras, including Alphabet and Meta." https://t.co/DauN0xDYOe
Memory Market Still On Track for $200 B
Will do a memory market update next week. But in the meantime. Nothing has changed since this report a month ago. Memory still on track to ~$200B https://t.co/QSHAd1OxK2
800 VDC Marks Inflection Point for Data Center Power
Was fun going deep on 800 VDC. I had to talk to my friends in the trade working on these data centers for context lol. Lots of juicy nuggets I uncovered. 800 VDC: The Inflection Point Reshaping Datacenter Power...
Skipping the DTC Playbook, They Launched Soft Basics
They didn’t follow the DTC playbook and get into soft joggers, short shorts, quarter zips, soft polos, etc.. 😂
Understanding 800VDC: Shaping Data Center Power Future
Tomorrow on @DiligenceStack Primer on 800vDC and how to think about the future of power in the data center. https://t.co/HIMjUJ0hIB https://t.co/5Bpqj83kUT
Enterprise AI Adoption Still Under 7%, Not Fully Deployed
Definitely a fad. Fewer than ~7% of enterprises have deployed AI at any kind of scale. 0% fully deployed. https://t.co/DePSverGtr
H100 GPUs Skyrocket in Price, Supply Remains Scarce
Lots of SKUs of H100 commanding much higher prices. Inference has moved to N-2,3 etc compute hardware. And we don’t have nearly enough.
Future Silicon Will Be Built for Agentic AI
From here on out, all silicon architecture designs will be designed with agentic AI in mind. Basically, all silicon becomes agentic workload-focused.
Compute Gap Vast; AMD Poised to Fill It
The compute gap is very large. I'd love to come up with an estimate of how large, will try, but its large. NVIDIA alone can't fill the gap, not sure even TPU scale can help fill the gap at...
MicroStrategy Discusses BE Strategy with Applied Materials
MS on $BE Had a long chat with folks at AMAT on all this last month. https://t.co/KWTiLzZLV5
TSMC's CoWoS Pattern Drives Silicon Photonics Growth
Had a lot of optical discussions at GTC last week. While it may not be one foundry to rule them all, we still think all roads will lead back to TSMC. TSMC COUPE: Why the CoWoS Pattern Is Repeating...
Optical Supply Gap Hits 20‑30% Amid Rapid 800G Demand
Interesting interview with a Sr Engineer in networking at AWS. Optical is ramping fast. Looking to shift to 1.6T but still can't get all the capacity they need at 800G. Diversified across vendors with InnoLight currently the most share....
TurboQuant: When It Hurts vs Helps Memory Demand
Ok, class, listen up. Your homework today is to come up with scenarios where TurboQuant is negative to memory demand and scenarios where it may actually boost memory demand.
Conversational Maps Redefine Everyday Navigation with Gemini
Just used Gemini in Google Maps to find a stop on my way home from SF and it’s amazing. How did we live without conversational maps.
Agentic CPUs Drive Datacenter Growth Amid Specific Workloads
In this report, we detail why, and what workloads specifically, are causing the datacenter CPU growth cycle. A new architecture emerges as agentic native CPUs find their place in the market. Report: Secret Agent CPU https://t.co/jjdrB3k1Bt
Arm Projects $100B AI CPU Market by 2030
$arm believed the dollar TAM for Arm IP, subsystems, and their AGI CPU is ~100b. That’s across customer dollars and agentic CPU dollars down their merchant solution. We do believe the new CPU server TAM across scenarios range from...
Purpose‑Built CPUs Drive New Cloud‑Native and Agent‑Native Markets
Purpose designed CPU for agentic workloads is the reason we will have cloud (web software) native data center CPUs and then agent native CPUs as a greenfield growth category. Good for everyone making CPUs whether Arm or x86. https://t.co/lfWNEf64U5
ARM Expands From IP Licensing to Chips, Boosting Revenue
$arm CEO @renehaas237 emphasizing @arm now sells IP, complete subsystems, and now chips. Tapping into a much larger revenue pool than just licensing should bring $$ upside faster than most have modeled. https://t.co/VKPOyqBzLS
Heavy Computing Demands Lots of CPU Power
Also, since I’m publishing on this topic tomorrow… computer use require A LOT of CPUs.
Excited to See Arm Ecosystem Unveiled at Upcoming Event
I’ll be there. Looking forward to the news and seeing a large part of the Arm ecosystem on display.
TSMC to Depend Heavily on OSATs for Capacity
I do genuinely enjoy some of the company names on Asian exchanges that literally make clear what they do. Global Wafers is another one. That said, TSMC is going to lean heavily on OSATs for capacity support. Interesting times....
Long‑term Supply Contracts Now Standard Through 2028
Yep, and through 2028 now at least. Everyone in the supply chain we talk to is noting how LTA's extend with every customer conversation. Now multi-year is the standard--which is something if you know historical memory supplier agreements.
Elon’s 100k WPM
Still think he was better of JVing with Intel foundry. He will struggle to get ASML machines, even if @substrate is invlolved it is many years before this 100k WPM is remotely possible. I'm sure Elon is taking the...
Testing AI Tennis Ball Machine's Pro-Level Rallies
About to play tennis with this smart AI ball machine. Apparently can simulate pro level rallies. Will get video and report back. https://t.co/YMlVxMRXD8
Price Barrier Leaves Millions Craving Affordable Macs
Our consumer research has always validated a large cohort of people who wanted a Mac but price was too much of a barrier. Most of these respondents were not "heavy" users. Neo success should not surprise. ~1.4B unique customers...
Measuring AI Factories' Value Essential for Agentic Enterprise
As we transition to the agentic enterprise. Stil work to be done to fully model the value of intelligence manufacturing plants (AI Factories). https://t.co/HbYZCQFhhC
On‑prem Token Generators Reshape Edge Hardware Strategy
We think these token generators that can live on-prem and serve tokens to teams are a new factor to consider in modeling where all this hardware goes and how agentic plays at the edge. Good example from @dell here with...
Buy‑side Questions Cycle Durability; Stay Bullish yet Cautious
Talking to a lot of the buy side, it's clear that, despite understanding the constraints and the demand, the central debate is still the durability of the cycle across the board. It is ok to be bullish, but being sensitive...
NVIDIA's AI Factory Expansion Shrinks Competitors' Window
$NVDA post GTC report on The @DiligenceStack The product family is now a full drop in AI factory. NVIDIA Is Expanding the AI Factory and Narrowing the Competitive Window https://t.co/N1Sb2hBqxm
Your Optical View Determines Semiconductor Market Position
Optical was a big discussion in my meetings with many in the semis ecosystem at GTC. This part of the discussion is a debate most underappreciated, as your view on this dictates how it plays out and who is...
Micron
MS note on $MU. I get it, and this both makes sense and makes no sense at the same time. https://t.co/eXaRfWNQ04
Earnings Calls Will Spotlight Memory, Storage Margin Growth
Remember what I said, a few quarters ago, the story will be for memory and storage. Margin expansion. You will hear it all over these earnings calls.
Jensen Highlights Mastery of 2,000‑Provider Supply Chain
Jensen also mentioned that their supply chain consists of roughly 2000 providers. As I wrote in this report, they are masters of the supply chain. https://t.co/9ZCdGgQZVs
Groq Rack Packs 8 LPU, FPGA, CPU, DPU Per
Groq rack is 8 LPU, 1 FPGA, 1 CPU, 1 BF DPU per tray and 32 trays in a rack.
Vera Rack Packs 256 CPUs, 64 DPUs, Liquid‑cooled
Vera CPU tray. 8 CPUs per tray total 256 CPUs per rack. 64 Bluefield DPU (still a CPU) per rack. No wattage disclosed yet for a full Vera CPU rack. Fully liquid cooled. https://t.co/6bbrZEGGuP
Groq’s AI Rack Comb
Groq board. FPGA (likely Altera) and CPU head node (likely Intel) and 8 Groq LPUs on top. Groq rack also on the right paired with VR NVL72. https://t.co/CM4ni9TDyX