French Master the Art of Holiday‑adjacent Leave
No surprise that the French have perfected the art of managing leave around public bank holidays.
ECB Relieved by EURUSD Rally, Fears Below 1.05
It won't move the needle for the ECB in June, but it's a relief for the bank that EURUSD is rallying, all the same. Nightmare for them would be a trap door to 1.05 or lower exacerbating imported inflation.
German Factory Orders Surge, Boosting European March Outlook
German factory orders finishing Q1 strongly, adding to decent French IP and Italian retail sales data yesterday for March. Welcome news.
UK Growth Steady, Inflation Surges, Rate Hike Needed
@Robwoodecon on the UK PMIs -> "Growth holds up and inflation rockets, the MPC will need to hike."
Navy's Return Home Paves Way for Resolution
The US navy will soon go home and then, and only then, can we move towards a resolution.
Only US Markets or Inflation Shift Can Move the Fed
Macro pain, or weakness in asset prices, outside the US won't move the needle. It has to be either US stocks, bonds, or a sustained shift in inflation, pulling the Fed by the nose (all three?). Until then, the slow-motion...
Bidding War Ban Threatens Fair Tenant Allocation
So many issues with this, which will be fixed once the rubber hits the road. The most baffling is the ban on bidding wars and "discrimination" ... how do you think LLs will allocate their tenancies if they can't do...
Leaseholders Need Manager Control, Not Just Rent Caps
Assuming @UKLabour is actually going to push through ground rent cap as promised (which is debatable), the next crucial step is to allow leaseholders to appoint their own managers and control their work. Caps won't get us anywhere, but...
Lagarde
I mean, Lagarde all but confirmed this when she said a) inflation is moving away from the baseline and b) the baseline is conditional on two hikes.
Lagarde Signals Two Rate Hikes in March Forecast
Lagarde basically underwriting the idea that the baseline forecasts in March includes two rate hikes
Downside Risks Loom for EZ Q1 GDP Amid Spanish Slowdown
Risks are shifting to the downside for the EZ Q1 GDP print today, especially if Spanish growth cools more than expected and Ireland mean-reverts further.
Rising Yields Safe Until Recession Hits Deficits
See lots of reference to higher gilt yields and the threat to public finances. As long as nominal GDP is purring at +5% it doesn't matter. But if you have a recession, and a nominal slowdown, with automatic stabilisers blowing...
Nervous Market Stagnates Amid Energy Crisis and Stagflation
Nervy equilibrium here ... no one wants to sell, let alone short, equities and risk being caught out by a TACO ... in the meantime the global energy structure is reeling and the macro outlook is sinking deeper into a...
Markets Must Push Harder as US 10‑Year Hits
Markets need to try a lot harder if they want Trump to tap out in Iran. US 10y above 5% and 5-to-10% lower in Spoos, at least ...
Price Expectations Surge, Near Last Year's Peak
Selling price expectations in the April EC survey are ugly all day long. Clear upside pressures building in the core components on a six/12m basis and in food, the index has, in two months, leapt to within the peak last...