Gilts and the Pound Shield Britain From Fiscal Chaos
Gilts, and possibly GBP, ultimately stand between Britain and leftwing fiscal recklessness. Both will wake up, at some point, but as long as inflation is high and nominal GDP is purring, the government can get away with a lot.
Leasehold Can Be Abolished; Labour's Reforms Trap Owners
Odd piece which seems to acknowledge that leasehold is deeply flawed while simultaneously relying on quotes from vested interests who argue that it can't be reformed out of existence. The reality is of course that it can, and should. Hopefully...
Three Rate Hikes Flatten Curve, Buying Duration Risk
+ 1 ... at more than two hikes priced, the curve really should be flat as a pancake if not inverted (in Z6/Z7 space). At +3 hikes, I think you are buying the belly/duration.
Eurozone Inflation at 3% Forces ECB to Hold, Stagflation Returns
Decidedly grim survey data in the Eurozone for April nails the ECB's decision for a hold next week, despite another increase in inflation, to around 3%. Stagflation economics is back; did it ever leave?
Markets Price Aggressive ECB Hikes Amid Stagflation Risks
ERZ6 still pricing in 60-70bp in ECB hikes this year—in effect still glued to oil prices—even as the services PMIs drop through the trap door opened by Mr. Trump in the Middle East. Stagflation is tricky, and markets still see...
Homebuilders Push Freehold Sales, Let Residents Choose Management
Astonishing that homebuilders believes that they can actually get away this. Just sell the share of freehold and let the residents choose their mgt agent. They'd be selling with a higher margin anyway.
Potential Impact on European Inflation, Stay Open‑minded
It could be nothing, or it could be significant, for inflation in Europe. At this point, I think it's worth keeping an open mind. https://t.co/48mNR7PmNZ
Energy Bulls and Bears Spar More Fiercely than Stocks
If you thought the emotions around the bull/bear case for stocks often run high, it is nothing compared to the lines currently being drawn up between bulls and bears in oil, gas and the wider energy complex.
Navy Boarding Gets TV Praise, Not Strategic Gain
The US navy disabling and boarding an Iranian tanker plays well with the base on the 9 o'clock news, on FOX, but it doesn't get the strait open. Trump will have to choose, eventually.
ECB Likely to Hold, Eyes June Hike Amid Oil‑energy Turmoil
The April decision by the ECB is definitely hostage to the fortunes of oil/energy and conditions on the ground in the ME, but the path of least resistance is for a hold. Will suit cautious policymakers and hawks will feel...
Underpriced Inflation Risk: 2021 Gas Surge From Refill Delay
Still think this is an underpriced inflation risk, not due to the ME situation per se, though it doesn't help. In 2021, gas prices rose strongly too in the latter part of the year on the eve of the...
Eurozone's 2.5% Inflation Becomes New Normal
An in the Eurozone 2.5% is the new 2%; it was before the war in Iran. I think this can be explained in part, by a simple macro framework via the interaction between looser fiscal and tighter monetary...
Sector Churn Fuels Equity Rally Amid Narrative Hype
Can we just stop this please ... Spoos/NDX closing in on new highs, so everyone is just backfilling a narrative to support that. I am here for a discussion whether equities are delusional, or otherwise. My view: sector churn is...
UK Working Wages Fall Short, Universal Credit Hits 8.4 Million
In the UK, a "working salary" is basically not enough to live on, so the government tops up, paid for by what is now a shrinking and squeezed tax base. 1/2
UK Leasehold Traps Undermine Downsizing Into Flats
@HarryScoffin working away to expose the issues ailing UK flats; here on downsizing. Selling your family home to move into a nice flat sounds nice, in theory, and in most countries it makes sense, but not in the UK, due...
Sector Churn Protects Index, Crisis Far From
I don't have a particularly strong view on equities here—the sector churn is conducive for active managers and leaves the index protected to the downside—but for those who claim this crisis is "over" ... what are you smoking?! 1/2
ECB Confident of Another Soft Landing Amid Oil Shock
Yes, the ECB achieved a soft landing after the last inflation shock which suggests that it believes it will be able to do so again as it tightens into the oil price shock. Let's hope so.
Revelation Space: A Wild Ride for Hardcore Sci‑Fi Fans
Just finished Alastair Reynold's Revelation Space, what a wild ride. Will review soon on the blog. Definitely recommend, but for hardcore sci-fi fans only.
March 2026 Leading Indicators Reveal Emerging Economic Weakness
My latest blog post -> Global Leading Indicators, March 2026 - A Chink in the Armour https://t.co/ZGzleYt87c
Trump Blames NATO, but Europe Doubts US Security Guarantee
Classic Trump to externalise the sh'tshow he has created in the ME on Europe by linking it to "NATO not helping" ... plays well the base, but has very little influence in Europe as no one serious here has believed...
Veteran ERZ
Followed by everyone, and it does seem like everyone in EZ rate space, who has been long ERZ6 since 97 and change.
UK Gilts Mirror Trump’s Spoof: Market Holds the Power
Gilts are to the sitting UK government what Spoos is to Trump; the game will continue until either market says no more.
Hedge Fund Mirrors 5x Ultra Oil ETF, Resetting After Collapse
This dude is basically running his hedge fund as a 5x Ultra ETF on oil, and if he blows up, he just restarts again with the exact same model. #scenes.
Reform Turns Into the Very System It Opposes
Baffling pivot by Reform. They're morphing into that which they purport to be an alternative to.
Eurozone Inflation Likely Exceeds 4.5% Next
We're slightly above 4.5% in the Eurozone for next year, adding 0.2-to-0.3pp to the headline on its own, and I feel like we're lowballing it. No amount of demand destruction are likely to stop that either, unless it gets really...
Istat Naps When Data Matters Most
Istat falling asleep at the wheel at the one time in the year when their data actually matter ...
StarCraft: The Definitive Late‑90s Strategy Masterpiece
Best strategy game of the late 1990s and early 2000s, by a mile; the Brood Wars expansion was great too.
Eurozone Inflation Surprise up; Core Falls, Italy Softens
Advance HICP data tracking a slight upside surprise in the EZ headline today, but the core likely fell, and the Italian number should be soft as the wild jump in services inflation in February, Winter Olympics, reverse.
Travel Cuts Needed for Poor, Middle Class; Ibiza Remains Expensive
Correction; poor and middle class people should cut back on travel. Will be lovely, albeit expensive, on the Ibiza beaches this summer, if you can get there.
Odd‑even Plate Rules May Dictate Rationing Schedule
How will they ration then? Odd number plates get to buy on Tuesday and the like?
Governments Cut Energy Taxes, but Economics Suffer
Governments are now pulling the obvious lever that is right in front of them; cutting indirect taxes on energy as the oil price shock filters through strongly and immediately to consumer prices. The economics of this, meanwhile are suboptimal. 1/2
Leaseholders Warn of Rising Service Charges
Leaseholders seeing people post council tax bills on the houses they hope to one day occupy, realising they would just be paying a new form of always rising service charge if they ever make it out. I am seeing bills...
Upcoming March EZ PMIs May Signal Three Rate Hikes
% min until the first EZ PMIs start to trickle in for March, with ERZ6 pricing in three hikes for this year. Let's see whether the latter holds. Remember,that the PMIs will tend to import this shock as "strength" via...
CPI Risks Distortion From Rationing and Price Spikes
No idea how CPIs will import this, but I fear the worst. Rationing + sampling distorted by the few remaining live routes, where prices will go vertical. Some stats offices might even have to impute price, which could paradoxically cushion...
Reeves, Miliband, Bell Call For
Reeves, Miliband and Bell will look at Gilts and go ... we need to spend more and raise taxes.
JPM Predicts Back-to-Back ECB and BOE Rate Hikes
JPM woke up this Friday morning and chose violence ... looking for back-to-back hikes from both the ECB and BOE.
Rates Likely Hike Unless Growth Collapses, Says Sell‑Side
And the sell side rolls in. April is punchy; I doubt they will see anything in the March HICP that scares them relative to the baseline. But the message is clear. Unless growth collapses they will hike, I think justifying...
New
I mean, why would they signal this when they just got ahead of the curve with their new forecasts ... I have two hikes in my fct (in June/July), but judging by the overall tone today and new forecasts I...
Lagarde’s Mic‑drop Secures Two ECB Rate Hikes
If I heard correctly, Lagarde just talked the ECB into two hikes this year with her mic drop at the end.
Lagarde Signals Two Rate Hikes in Upgraded Outlook
Wait what ... that was a bonkers cliff hanger by Lagarde. She basically say that their *upgraded* inflation baseline, and new growth forecasts, includes two hikes this year?! While their scenarios include nothing. That basically underwrites market expectations ... as...
Lag
Have a sense this will be a hawkish presser, on balance ... difficult for Lagarde to push back against market expectations given these new forecasts, unless you take a very asymmetric view on inflation v growth risks, which they may...
ECB Sees Higher Inflation, yet Hesitates to Tighten
Big plot twist for the ECB; yes their forecasts might be out of date, but the HICP fcts are reasonably punchy for 2026 ... smart move; the big question though is; why not tighten? They see materially higher inflation and...
Eurozone Data Imminent: Construction Output, Notes, Q4 Labor Costs
5 min until key EZ data drop; Construction output for, checks notes ... January, and Q4 labour costs.
European Gas Buyers Must Panic Immediately Amid Price Shock
European gas buyers need to panic ... now. Brutal for the more price elastic EM buyers here.
Dreaming of a Second Car: S5 V8 or B7 S4
Dream car this .... there might just be one or two around when I have the chance to run one as a 2nd car. Alternatively the S5 v8 manual is a close second, or roll the dice on a cheapo...
Considering a Used EV as First Car In
Indeed; not hating this. Might pick one up used as my first EV in 3-4 years.
EU Gas Buyers May Replicate 2022 Spending Surge
This is a key theme for EZ inflation/gas. The curve in gas suggests that EZ buyers hold their nerve, but supply is paramount. The longer it goes on, the higher is the risk that EU buyers will do what...
Align Incentives, Cut Annual Flat Costs by £1K
Same; we stopped the bleeding and now set the budget every year. Managed to get the annual charge down by about 1K for my two-bed flat. No detours; lifts, common parts utilities etc cost money, but if incentives are aligned,...
Freehold Lobby Recycles Debunked Claims; Media Still Gullible
The freehold empire has quietly struck back in the battle over leasehold reform with a report, pushing the same old arguments that have been debunked over and over again. Sadly, mainstream media are still eating it, hook, line and sinker...
Expect Tomorrow's EZ Inflation Forecasts to Surprise Markets
Have sense that the floodgates will open on EZ inflation forecasts tomorrow. We have been updating daily since last week with the final HICPs from the individual countries, and I still think we're behind the curve ahead of the numbers...