First Non‑EU Fiscal Response Signals Upcoming Continental Action
First fiscal response out the block; tiny mind, but I suspect continental governments will not be far behind, as will the EU. Important for the ECB's reaction function too.
Iran’s Hormuz Standoff Exposes Global Power Game
Ugly game theoretics at play in Iran. Teheran has found its pain point in Hormuz, Russia is happy as it gets to sell its 'sanctioned oil', China is flapping like a kite in a hurricane, Europe has an incentive to...
Transport Services Inflation Leads Core CPI Pressure
Transport services inflation will be the first core CPI/HICP components to feel the heat, though these data are very sensitive to ampling in any given month.
Energy Spike Could Lift Eurozone Inflation to 2.3%
First scores on doors I've seen ... and it's boringly close to what we have been telling readers in the past week. At the current futures curve in oil, you get 2.3% in 2026 (roughly), with gas not doing much...
ECB Warns of Inflation Risks Despite Muted Growth Concerns
The first is interesting here, as the cut-off date was well before the flurry in oil prices. You can basically at this make a reasonable case for anything from 0.1pp to 0.4pp extra on the 2026 headline forecast.
ECB Faces Three Paths: Hold, Modest Tighten, Panic Hike
We see three scenarios for the ECB. 1) They hold their nerve "in a good place". 2) They pull fwd the tightening that has long been priced into 27/28 and take the depo rate to the higher end of neutral...
ECB Must Lean on Fiscal Support in Crises
Another really important part of the ECB reaction function; fiscal support. I mean they can’t afford it … but that’s what emergencies are for.
2026 Carry Trade Plans Faltered as Curves Flattened
Basically; 2026 was supposed to be the year where you bought carry in 26 STIR contracts, and cash bond curves would steepen. Best laid plans and all that.
Economic Upturn Threatened by Rising Oil Prices
Global leading indicators, February 2026 - Upturn confirmed, will it slip in rising oil prices? https://t.co/bHBBQw0j9O, my latest blog post.
March Cold Snap Won’t Significantly Raise Consumer Gas Prices
A cold spell in Europe in March would definitely put the cat among the pigeons, but worth remembering that it takes a while for gas prices to feed through to consumer prices, so "flash in the pan" shift won't matter,...
Eurozone Inflation Dovish, yet France‑Spain Surprises Challenge Doves
EZ inflation still looks dovish to us for February, but upside surprises in France and Spain this morning doing doves no favours; the "in a good place" mantra to stay. Let's see what Germany's state CPIs throw at us in...
Indra Shows Capital Surge in Small EU Defence Sector
Indra Sistemas still one of the better examples of a lot capital flowing into a relatively small market-cap sized EU defence theme
LEI Chartbook Shows Strong Economic Indicator
The latest LEI chartbook is up, and it's looking pretty good, if you believe this kind of indicator that is -> https://t.co/jA0iOD7MzE
European Small‑Cap Funds Eye Amadeus Fire Amid Labor Uncertainty
Any European small/mid cap FMs catching the falling knife in Amadeus Fire? If Germany's labour market turns, it should have some legs, though perhaps its model is doomed?
Belgian Dentists Shift Half Pension to Private Credit
Belgian dentists recently allocating 50% of their pension pot to private credit after volatility has come down a notch. https://t.co/vOglUU153U
Treasuries Prefer Higher Inflation Over Low Rates for Revenue
One of the under-reported stories in DM fiscal discourse is that for all the talk about how treasuries in the UK, US, France etc 'want' lower rates, they also want, and desperately, need high(er) inflation and the nominal tax revenue...