Expect a 50‑100bps Fed Hiking Cycle, Not a Single Hike
Rather than odds of one solo rate hike over the next 9-12 months, a better way of thinking about it is the market’s odds of a 50-100bps hiking cycle. The Fed won’t hike just once.
Diversify with San Francisco Real Estate or CAT Stock
If investors want to diversify they can always move their money into San Francisco real estate or $CAT stock.
Prioritize People Over Developers to Solve Housing Crisis
What would “choosing people over developers” look like in practice and how would that lead to more housing?
Rare Clean Jobs Report Arrives On Schedule, No Asterisks
Feels like the first time in ages we’re getting a clean jobs report on time and with no asterisks, looking forward to chatting about it with @IrvingSwisher: https://t.co/IBdjzH5es9
Atlanta's Gentrification Stalled; Millennial Upgrades Vanished Recently
I can only speak for Atlanta here, but in the 2010-21 period there was both urban gentrification and a lot of generic middle-class Boomer neighborhoods that became upper-middle class Millennial neighborhoods, but not so much of that over the past...
Luxury Home Market Booms Nationwide, San Francisco Leads
It's most acute in San Francisco but I'm pretty bullish on the luxury home market nationwide now: https://t.co/S4Wwc2Xr7l
Becoming
I might even be a little more hawkish than this Hammack statement, where I’m no longer as sure about the downside risks to growth and employment: https://t.co/uk3gVJjAZQ
Housing and Economy Stabilize, Reducing 2026 Labor Concerns
Signs of stabilization in the housing market and the economy/consumer weathering the war/energy shock so well have made me significantly less worried about the labor market for the balance of 2026.
The Bear's Season 5 Becomes Hot Chicken Country Joint
Season 5 of the Bear: they turn it into a hot chicken joint that plays country music.
Questioning Evidence That NIMBY Voters Trade Housing for Schools
Asking this in all sincerity: what is the evidence that voters in NIMBY states would be persuaded to build more housing if you told them the alternative is fewer kids/school closures? Have you met voters?
Oil Price Standoff: Unclear Who Will Yield First
So is the idea that once oil hits $130 or $140 someone will cave but we just don’t know who? This is like a pro sports standoff heading into a strike but more annoying.
Claude Pro's Token Costs Dwarf AI Job Disruption Prospects
I burned through all my tokens in a session on Claude Pro this morning in maybe 10 minutes trying to pull data out of one PDF — there’s just no way there’s enough compute to disrupt a meaningful number of...
Sun Belt Housing Surge Lifts My Economic Outlook
I’ve come to accept that my mood (well, economic mood) is overly sensitive to the Sun Belt housing market and it just feels like things are picking up for real now.
Short‑Form Video Forces News to Redefine Reporter vs Influencer
Something a lot of us saw over the weekend raised a question that's probably worth exploring -- particularly as news organizations embrace short-form video, what differentiates a reporter from a content creator from an influencer?
Premium Screens Boost Hollywood Box Office Despite Affordability Worries
The fact that seemingly every major Hollywood film has been beating box office expectations lately and it’s increasingly being driven by premium screens is an interesting trend given the broader affordability discourse.