Powell's Comments Lower Odds of His Gubernatorial Exit
Odds of Powell leaving as governor just took a meaningful leg down after his comments: https://t.co/BAkNISx8fo
Homebuilder Outlook Improves: Inventory Stabilizes, Costs Decline
[@opinion] My housing friends may think I'm early, but I think the outlook for homebuilders has shifted from 🔴to 🟡 this year -- resale inventory is stabilizing, costs are coming down, and they've made a big enough dent on affordability...
Atlanta TSA Chaos Persists; DHS Fix Expected by Weekend
The TSA situation at the Atlanta airport seems really bad now, hope this DHS situation gets sorted out by the weekend.
Admin's Gas Price Panic Mirrors Two‑Week Pandemic Urgency
There’s a bit of a “Two weeks to stop the spread” vibe when the admin talks about the pain of higher gas prices.
Regional Housing Markets Shape Inflation Perceptions
I’m convinced that a lot of people’s views on inflation right now are driven by whether they live in the Sun Belt (experiencing housing deflation/disinflation) or NY/SF.
U.S. Keeps Troops In, Trump May Just Quit
“U.S. officials, however, say privately there are no plans to withdraw forces—more Marines and warships are headed to the region—and some expected the fighting to last weeks or longer. Another scenario, the officials said: Trump simply declares victory and calls it...
Iran May Extort Oil Deals After $120 Price Surge
Why wouldn’t Iran wait until oil hits $120/barrel and then put out the word that if you’re friendly to them and pay them you can get your oil, mafia-style?
Oil Price Expected to Peak Within Six Weeks, Markets Shift
I don't know if the peak oil price will be $125 or $225 but I strongly suspect on a time basis it comes in the next 4-6 weeks, and markets will trade differently after that peak (like June 2022).
Suggesting a Jones Act Episode for Odd Lots Listeners
@TheStalwart @tracyalloway Have you thought about doing an episode on the Jones Act? I could see Odd Lots listeners being interested in it, maybe having some opinions.
Binary Labels Mask the Strait’s Complex Phases
At some point (idk when) "the Strait is closed/open" is going to be a bit like "we shut down/reopened the economy for covid" -- a binary that glosses over various phases of the process.
After 10 Days, 500M Barrels Loss Seen as Acceptable
10-11 days into this it feels like a good-ish outcome would be getting out of this with only 500 million barrels of lost oil production?
Oil Price Spikes Topple Presidents, a Universal Threat
A surging oil price arguably ended the presidencies of all of Nixon, Carter, GHWB, and Biden — it’s maybe the one thing every President should be paranoid about.
Big‑budget Film Praised, yet Still Under the Radar
They spent a gazillion dollars making this and the reviews seem strong but I don’t feel like the marketing push has gotten the movie into the zeitgeist at all yet: https://t.co/Obnbhrzjz2
Skanda Skips CPI Spaces; Oil Dynamics Dominate Focus
Skanda can’t do CPI Spaces this morning — disappointed to miss it but probably not the most impactful report given the current oil dynamics.
Don't Conflate War Talk with Strait of Hormuz Energy Debate
I feel like there’s war discourse and there’s Strait of Hormuz/energy discourse and some people are conflating the two in unhelpful ways even if they’re obviously linked.
Frisco’s Growth Echoes Inland Empire’s Rapid Boom
When I was in Frisco, Texas a couple years ago I thought "Oh huh this is just like the Inland Empire, no wonder it's growing so fast."
Markets Question Reopening Timing Amid Falling Oil Prices
The hard thing for markets is reading this while oil prices are falling — I think the question is whether markets correctly anticipate a reopening before it happens or whether it needs a big headline.
He’ll Keep Oil Above $100, Not Below $80
My 2-cent take — he’ll try to jawbone to keep oil below $100, but he won’t deescalate to bring oil below $80 (to the extent he’s really in control here anyway). And the oil floor probably keeps going up while...
Investors Shocked by Liberation Day, Split on Hormuz Risks
Liberation Day: Investors stunned, didn’t think he’d do it after Trump 1.0, tariffs universally hated among investors Strait of Hormuz situation: Investors more afraid of a TACO, Wall Street opinions about the Iran operation not as universally negative as Liberation Day
Strait of Hormuz Closure Threat Triggers S&P Futures Drop
If Citrini publishes a substack post this weekend about an extended Strait of Hormuz closure scenario S&P futures are going to open Sunday night limit down huh
All‑Sector Slump Hits Jobs, Oil, Credit, AI
So in the same day we got negative data points/price action on: -jobs -oil -private credit -AI capex intentions
Asian Unemployment Surpasses Overall Rate in February
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
Office Mandates Won’t Stop Talent Choosing Cheaper Cities
Interesting read. Even as most big companies have put in place return-to-office mandates it’s still structurally easier for talent to pick where to live (a suburb of Denver or Dallas rather than NY/CA) than it used to be, and it...
Data Centers Must Fund Infrastructure, Not Expect Tax Breaks
It used to be that municipalities would give tax breaks for factories (jobs), but now the data center developers need to come with bags of money for infrastructure and the tax base.
Software Hiring Cycle Predicts Slowdown in Next 18 Months
This is the industry cycle I’ve been thinking about re: software company employment over the next 12-18 months: https://t.co/38u2sTZ13o
Avoid Rehashing Fed Gold/ETF Debate if ZIRP Returns
I just hope if we really do end up back at ZIRP that we don’t debate the Fed buying gold or ETF’s, that was bad discourse.
Severe Unemployment & Stock Crash Trigger Major Fiscal Response
If the unemployment rate hits 6% with stocks down 25-30% (roughly the thresholds when we got TARP/CARES Act), we’ll get a big fiscal policy response. But it won’t be actual TARP or CARES, it depends on what the crisis looks...
Economists Needed to Assess AI’s Macro Economic Impact
We need real economists (@ModeledBehavior, @arpitrage, @tylercowen, Krugman etc) to take a crack at the fast AI scenarios from an NGDP, RGDP, productivity growth, inflation, 30,000-foot macro standpoint. What are the tech/VC/hedge fund people missing?