Job Growth Breakeven Low; Wages Slow, Healthcare Leads
Labor market thoughts: -Clearly, the breakeven job growth number to maintain stable unemployment is low right now -Nominal job growth is muted, entirely concentrated in healthcare -Wage growth continues to slow, aggregate payroll growth is consistent with maybe 4% NGDP growth
Healthcare Gains While Other Sectors Lose Jobs
Over the past year the US economy has added 680,000 healthcare and social assistance jobs and lost 420,000 jobs in all other industries.
TACO Market Delays Pain, Recovery Expected by July
Feels like the market shifting of the goalposts on TACO is "Even if April will be bad, it'll be fine by July."
Strait Closure Likely Extends Beyond Two Weeks
My only thought is 2-3 weeks is unlikely to turn into 7-10 days so that’s at least two more weeks of Strait closure.
June WTI Futures May Have Already Peaked
POLL: Has the June WTI crude oil futures contract peaked? ($104 on March 9th, $99 last night, $94 currently)
Suburban vs DC Buyers: Short‑Term Focus Over Housing Cycles
This piece from @mattyglesias makes me wonder if there’s a difference in perspective between an Alpharetta and a DC townhouse buyer, just less familiarity with multi-generational housing cycles of aging and renewal and more focus on the now: https://t.co/yWIIKEvGiH
Google Paper Threatens Memory Stocks, Sparks Fear
If he really wants to scare people he’ll talk about that Google paper and the implications for memory stocks.
High Oil Prices Feel Justifiable, Low Prices Seem Foolish
TACO and $65 oil always seemed dumb to me but tapping out at $120+ oil on the other hand…
Earnings Outlook Determines Whether Stocks or Bonds Look Cheap
If forward earnings estimates materialize, a lot of stocks seem pretty cheap. If earnings estimates don’t materialize, bonds seem cheap.
Starbucks Belongs in Nashville: A Cultural Fit for 2026
Starbucks should move the whole company to Nashville tbh. It's a better cultural fit for what the brand is in 2026: https://t.co/R0oQPKKkd6
Markets Care About Oil Flow, Not Hormuz Control
Markets don’t really care who controls the Strait of Hormuz as long as the oil starts to flow again — “give markets what they want” doesn’t necessarily mean a US win.
Housing Market Unchanged Despite War, Higher Rates
No noticeable impact from the war/higher mortgage rates in the weekly housing data yet: https://t.co/f4wx5tgXQn
Immersive Giant Screens Drive Experience‑First Entertainment Trend
-Premium large format movie screens -COSM -Sphere Unclear how many of these things there’s a market for but the trend is screens/experiences you can’t get at home.
Hyperliquid Fan Excited, yet Wary of Gossip Posts
I’m Hyperliquid-pilled now, just hope their X account never posts about the girlfriends of pro athletes.
Check Atlanta Airport Wait Times Before You Travel
The peak wait times at the Atlanta airport are obviously bad right now but there are still shorter wait times, just seems like a case of having to check before you go: https://t.co/rTf1lD2BrV
Big Tech Giants Stagnant for Over Two Years
$META and $AMZN stocks are flat over the past ~1.5 years. $MSFT is flat over the past 2+ years. Kind of interesting.
Powell's Comments Lower Odds of His Gubernatorial Exit
Odds of Powell leaving as governor just took a meaningful leg down after his comments: https://t.co/BAkNISx8fo
Homebuilder Outlook Improves: Inventory Stabilizes, Costs Decline
[@opinion] My housing friends may think I'm early, but I think the outlook for homebuilders has shifted from 🔴to 🟡 this year -- resale inventory is stabilizing, costs are coming down, and they've made a big enough dent on affordability...
Atlanta TSA Chaos Persists; DHS Fix Expected by Weekend
The TSA situation at the Atlanta airport seems really bad now, hope this DHS situation gets sorted out by the weekend.
Admin's Gas Price Panic Mirrors Two‑Week Pandemic Urgency
There’s a bit of a “Two weeks to stop the spread” vibe when the admin talks about the pain of higher gas prices.
Regional Housing Markets Shape Inflation Perceptions
I’m convinced that a lot of people’s views on inflation right now are driven by whether they live in the Sun Belt (experiencing housing deflation/disinflation) or NY/SF.
U.S. Keeps Troops In, Trump May Just Quit
“U.S. officials, however, say privately there are no plans to withdraw forces—more Marines and warships are headed to the region—and some expected the fighting to last weeks or longer. Another scenario, the officials said: Trump simply declares victory and calls it...
Iran May Extort Oil Deals After $120 Price Surge
Why wouldn’t Iran wait until oil hits $120/barrel and then put out the word that if you’re friendly to them and pay them you can get your oil, mafia-style?
Oil Price Expected to Peak Within Six Weeks, Markets Shift
I don't know if the peak oil price will be $125 or $225 but I strongly suspect on a time basis it comes in the next 4-6 weeks, and markets will trade differently after that peak (like June 2022).
Suggesting a Jones Act Episode for Odd Lots Listeners
@TheStalwart @tracyalloway Have you thought about doing an episode on the Jones Act? I could see Odd Lots listeners being interested in it, maybe having some opinions.
Binary Labels Mask the Strait’s Complex Phases
At some point (idk when) "the Strait is closed/open" is going to be a bit like "we shut down/reopened the economy for covid" -- a binary that glosses over various phases of the process.
After 10 Days, 500M Barrels Loss Seen as Acceptable
10-11 days into this it feels like a good-ish outcome would be getting out of this with only 500 million barrels of lost oil production?
Oil Price Spikes Topple Presidents, a Universal Threat
A surging oil price arguably ended the presidencies of all of Nixon, Carter, GHWB, and Biden — it’s maybe the one thing every President should be paranoid about.
Big‑budget Film Praised, yet Still Under the Radar
They spent a gazillion dollars making this and the reviews seem strong but I don’t feel like the marketing push has gotten the movie into the zeitgeist at all yet: https://t.co/Obnbhrzjz2
Skanda Skips CPI Spaces; Oil Dynamics Dominate Focus
Skanda can’t do CPI Spaces this morning — disappointed to miss it but probably not the most impactful report given the current oil dynamics.
Don't Conflate War Talk with Strait of Hormuz Energy Debate
I feel like there’s war discourse and there’s Strait of Hormuz/energy discourse and some people are conflating the two in unhelpful ways even if they’re obviously linked.
Frisco’s Growth Echoes Inland Empire’s Rapid Boom
When I was in Frisco, Texas a couple years ago I thought "Oh huh this is just like the Inland Empire, no wonder it's growing so fast."
Markets Question Reopening Timing Amid Falling Oil Prices
The hard thing for markets is reading this while oil prices are falling — I think the question is whether markets correctly anticipate a reopening before it happens or whether it needs a big headline.
He’ll Keep Oil Above $100, Not Below $80
My 2-cent take — he’ll try to jawbone to keep oil below $100, but he won’t deescalate to bring oil below $80 (to the extent he’s really in control here anyway). And the oil floor probably keeps going up while...
Investors Shocked by Liberation Day, Split on Hormuz Risks
Liberation Day: Investors stunned, didn’t think he’d do it after Trump 1.0, tariffs universally hated among investors Strait of Hormuz situation: Investors more afraid of a TACO, Wall Street opinions about the Iran operation not as universally negative as Liberation Day
Strait of Hormuz Closure Threat Triggers S&P Futures Drop
If Citrini publishes a substack post this weekend about an extended Strait of Hormuz closure scenario S&P futures are going to open Sunday night limit down huh
All‑Sector Slump Hits Jobs, Oil, Credit, AI
So in the same day we got negative data points/price action on: -jobs -oil -private credit -AI capex intentions
Asian Unemployment Surpasses Overall Rate in February
Outside of a handful of months in 2020 the Asian unemployment rate has been below the overall unemployment rate for the entirety of the last 20 years, but it popped above in February: https://t.co/i10DDosA0u
Office Mandates Won’t Stop Talent Choosing Cheaper Cities
Interesting read. Even as most big companies have put in place return-to-office mandates it’s still structurally easier for talent to pick where to live (a suburb of Denver or Dallas rather than NY/CA) than it used to be, and it...
Data Centers Must Fund Infrastructure, Not Expect Tax Breaks
It used to be that municipalities would give tax breaks for factories (jobs), but now the data center developers need to come with bags of money for infrastructure and the tax base.
Software Hiring Cycle Predicts Slowdown in Next 18 Months
This is the industry cycle I’ve been thinking about re: software company employment over the next 12-18 months: https://t.co/38u2sTZ13o
Avoid Rehashing Fed Gold/ETF Debate if ZIRP Returns
I just hope if we really do end up back at ZIRP that we don’t debate the Fed buying gold or ETF’s, that was bad discourse.
Severe Unemployment & Stock Crash Trigger Major Fiscal Response
If the unemployment rate hits 6% with stocks down 25-30% (roughly the thresholds when we got TARP/CARES Act), we’ll get a big fiscal policy response. But it won’t be actual TARP or CARES, it depends on what the crisis looks...
Economists Needed to Assess AI’s Macro Economic Impact
We need real economists (@ModeledBehavior, @arpitrage, @tylercowen, Krugman etc) to take a crack at the fast AI scenarios from an NGDP, RGDP, productivity growth, inflation, 30,000-foot macro standpoint. What are the tech/VC/hedge fund people missing?
