Claude's Performance Dip, but Patience for Future Upgrades
Claude definitely seems worse to me than it used to be, but whatever, I can wait a few months until they get some more compute, not the end of the world.
Housing Market Set to Grow Across All Sectors in 2027
There’s maybe another 3-6 months of softness as builders work down inventories but I think residential construction, resale transactions, new home sales, and home prices will all grow in 2027.
Today's 3% Mortgage Borrowers Out
You can’t tell me that a 43-year old with a 3% mortgage rate today is worse off than people under 50 in the early 2010’s who were either underemployed or had gotten their home equity nuked.
2026 Labor Market Set to Remain Stable Amid AI Limits
[@opinion] Stabilization in the labor market data and a massively compute-constrained AI industry means 2026 is shaping up as a pretty decent year for the labor market — for now at least: https://t.co/Js1J4rf3o1
More Housing Built, Rents Fell Despite Developer Optimism
The key to falling rents is building more housing. And the key to building more housing is making developers believe rents will go up (which, in the case of Austin in 2022, they ended up being very wrong about).
Housing Supply Stabilizes While Demand Remains Tough
The supply trends in the housing market (both new and resale) have stabilized a lot this year even as demand continues to be challenging.
Court's Rollback Forces Extreme Gerrymandering
Feels like we have to do the full race to the bottom (SCOTUS getting rid of VRA districts, maybe a 52-0 map in California) before anything changes.
Corporate M&A Strategy: Exploit Admin
New full-cycle corporate approach to M&A — wait until the antitrust admin is out of office and then bribe the next admin: https://t.co/FpMfphr3vx
Sil
What’s the best US macro call that Silicon Valley elites have made over the past 10-15 years? Employment, inflation, housing, GDP growth, take your pick.
NBA Playoffs Reveal Why Betting‑Heavy States Complain
Living in Georgia where online sports betting isn’t legal I generally don’t see many related ads, but they’re all over the NBA playoffs so I have a better understanding now of why NY/DC people complain about it.
Youth Unemployment Drops Sharply in Past Six Months
A lot of people, myself included, have written about youth unemployment over the past year, so it’s worth pointing out that age 20-24 unemployment has plunged over the last 6 months: https://t.co/OfHD2ZBOvW
Apple’s Headphone Jack Removal Ignores Costly Public Transit Externalities
Pretty strange that a Cupertino-based company wasn’t thinking about the impact of its products on the public transit experience.
Non‑linear Token Pricing Needed to Curb AI Bubble
The NBA second apron is bad, but OpenAI/Anthropic need to institute the second apron for the top 1% of token consumers. In a token-constrained world, token consumption should get more expensive in a non-linear way the more you use.
Joe and Tracy Host Live Interview with Analyst #3
Just thinking about Joe and Tracy interviewing Citrini Analyst #3 on a live pod here.
Iran War Stalls 2026 Housing Recovery, Builders Eye 2027
[@opinion] Green shoots for housing coming into 2026 were dashed by the war in Iran — May might be a bit of a bounce back but we’ve already lost two crucial months of the spring selling season and builders have...
For You Feeds Prioritize Dopamine over Real Information
Even though my For You tab has gotten better at being tailored to my interests (markets/AI, politics, sports), it’s more brain rottish/bad dopamine than the Following tab, just trying to push my buttons more than inform me.
AI White‑Collar Automation Delayed Until Compute Surplus Hits
Uninformed gut feeling is that to the extent AI really can lead to large-scale automation of white collar work it won’t happen until there’s a glut of compute rather than the current environment. Double whammy on the way down in...
SF $2k/Ft Homes Ripple Into Bay Suburbs
Single-family homes going for $2,000/ft in SF is going to have trickle-down effects, just curious whether it shows up more in Bay Area suburbs or the kinds of places SF people leave when they can’t afford to stay. @mikesimonsen @NewsLambert
Iran War Market Impact Mirrors April‑May 2020 Covid Shock
To the extent Covid is the analogy for the war in Iran’s impact on markets, it might be April-May 2020 rather than February 2020.
Mythos: Powerful Model Too Risky for Public Release
Mythos is an awesome name for a model that’s too powerful to release to the public, have to hand it to them.
MARTA's Daily Chaos Hides Event‑Ready Capacity
On a daily basis MARTA is kind of a mess but because it has so much excess capacity it’s actually well-suited for big events.
Is Sam and Dario's Rhetoric Helpful or Doomerist?
Asking this in all sincerity — is the rhetoric from Sam and Dario closer to something society should want that’s broadly beneficial or doomerism?
NBA's Woes Trace to Overpaid Media Rights Deals
On some level I think the NBA’s problems stem from the league getting overpaid for media rights because streamers were desperate for content and agreed to uneconomic deals, which made the owners rich and reduced the financial pressure on them...
Prioritize Early Rounds that Capture Real Attention
I’m good with this. Better to have the first round series people will actually pay attention to.
Oil Headlines Mislead; Brent Stuck Near $100
I can’t be the only one who sees these headlines day in and day out yet sees Brent crude struggle to hold $100/barrel and thinks there must be magic supplies of oil out there somehow.
Early-Year Releases Surpass Expectations Across the Board
It’s still early in the year but it seems like most of the big releases have been beating expectations.
Even CEOs Like Schultz and Iger Follow Identical Playbooks
This is how it works in the corporate world too — Howard Schultz, Bob Iger…
Suburbs Must Offer Amenities for EV Residents, Replacing Cities
The real urbanism fight that doesn’t get talked about much is if suburbs — particularly your Johns Creek/Frisco types — can build enough amenities for your Rivian R2-type residents and consumers that they don’t need actual cities as they’re currently...
Satoshi’s Identity Remains Unknowable without Definitive Insight
Unless Joe has a view on who Satoshi is I’m just going to assume it’s unknowable.
Regulators May Force Anthropic to Go Non‑Profit
So the bear case on Anthropic (equity) is the technology is so good that the government will never allow it to stay a for-profit enterprise?
Healthcare Hiring Forces Other Sectors to Cut Jobs
[@opinion] If: -the labor force isn’t growing -healthcare adds at least a couple hundred thousand jobs a year then: -non-healthcare industries (85% of the labor market) have to be constantly shedding a modest number of jobs https://t.co/GVeOyRT44p
Algorithmic X Lets Fans Catch Baseball Highlights Next Morning
Elon’s more algo-centric X has been better for baseball than chronological Twitter. Catch some crazy play the next morning instead of having to be awake at midnight ET to see it.
AI Liquidity Surge Boosts Austin Real Estate Outlook 2027
My hot take is the AI liquidity events are bullish Austin real estate in 2027.
ICE Staffing Speeds up Hartsfield-Jackson Security, Benefits Flyers
Can’t speak to what the TSA situation at airports has been the past several weeks, but I just went through security at Hartsfield-Jackson and it was a breeze — ICE officers checking ID’s made it overstaffed in a way that...
Job Growth Breakeven Low; Wages Slow, Healthcare Leads
Labor market thoughts: -Clearly, the breakeven job growth number to maintain stable unemployment is low right now -Nominal job growth is muted, entirely concentrated in healthcare -Wage growth continues to slow, aggregate payroll growth is consistent with maybe 4% NGDP growth
Healthcare Gains While Other Sectors Lose Jobs
Over the past year the US economy has added 680,000 healthcare and social assistance jobs and lost 420,000 jobs in all other industries.
TACO Market Delays Pain, Recovery Expected by July
Feels like the market shifting of the goalposts on TACO is "Even if April will be bad, it'll be fine by July."
Strait Closure Likely Extends Beyond Two Weeks
My only thought is 2-3 weeks is unlikely to turn into 7-10 days so that’s at least two more weeks of Strait closure.
June WTI Futures May Have Already Peaked
POLL: Has the June WTI crude oil futures contract peaked? ($104 on March 9th, $99 last night, $94 currently)
Suburban vs DC Buyers: Short‑Term Focus Over Housing Cycles
This piece from @mattyglesias makes me wonder if there’s a difference in perspective between an Alpharetta and a DC townhouse buyer, just less familiarity with multi-generational housing cycles of aging and renewal and more focus on the now: https://t.co/yWIIKEvGiH
Google Paper Threatens Memory Stocks, Sparks Fear
If he really wants to scare people he’ll talk about that Google paper and the implications for memory stocks.
High Oil Prices Feel Justifiable, Low Prices Seem Foolish
TACO and $65 oil always seemed dumb to me but tapping out at $120+ oil on the other hand…
Earnings Outlook Determines Whether Stocks or Bonds Look Cheap
If forward earnings estimates materialize, a lot of stocks seem pretty cheap. If earnings estimates don’t materialize, bonds seem cheap.
Starbucks Belongs in Nashville: A Cultural Fit for 2026
Starbucks should move the whole company to Nashville tbh. It's a better cultural fit for what the brand is in 2026: https://t.co/R0oQPKKkd6
Markets Care About Oil Flow, Not Hormuz Control
Markets don’t really care who controls the Strait of Hormuz as long as the oil starts to flow again — “give markets what they want” doesn’t necessarily mean a US win.
Housing Market Unchanged Despite War, Higher Rates
No noticeable impact from the war/higher mortgage rates in the weekly housing data yet: https://t.co/f4wx5tgXQn
Immersive Giant Screens Drive Experience‑First Entertainment Trend
-Premium large format movie screens -COSM -Sphere Unclear how many of these things there’s a market for but the trend is screens/experiences you can’t get at home.
Hyperliquid Fan Excited, yet Wary of Gossip Posts
I’m Hyperliquid-pilled now, just hope their X account never posts about the girlfriends of pro athletes.
Check Atlanta Airport Wait Times Before You Travel
The peak wait times at the Atlanta airport are obviously bad right now but there are still shorter wait times, just seems like a case of having to check before you go: https://t.co/rTf1lD2BrV
Big Tech Giants Stagnant for Over Two Years
$META and $AMZN stocks are flat over the past ~1.5 years. $MSFT is flat over the past 2+ years. Kind of interesting.