Oil Spike Not Worse Than 2022, SPX Panic Overblown
Not this shit again. 1st of all, this oil spike isn't more acute than 2022. In 2022 crude oil reached $129. Currently it's at $91 only. Secondly ,every time SPX is down 1%+ on Friday the usual suspects come up with their Black Monday/limit down nonsense. https://t.co/AUplOn5Z6k
QQQ Likely Tests 200‑Day MA Around 589‑590
$QQQ - As expected the choppy downtrend continues into next week. This week's low was 591.87. I expect it to make only a marginal lower low and bottom at the 200 day MA at the 589-590 range next week. https://t.co/gEEuUNwCm2
Oil Spikes 43% in Two Months, Trump Eyes Hormuz
BTW, oil rallied an additional 43% over the next 2 months. Trump will do everything he can to open the strait of Hormuz and prevent a similar outcome. As I noted in an earlier post this week, I expect it...
Oil Spikes 16%, RSI Hits 1990 Gulf War Levels
$USOIL - We're witnessing an extreme development today. Crude oil is up 16% currently. The 14 day RSI is above 89. The last time it closed above 89 was in August 1990, during the Gulf war. https://t.co/Fl62P7oRcE
APP Must Close Above 498 to Confirm Rebound
$APP - Probably made an intermediate term low 3 weeks ago when it bottomed at 359. It needs a weekly close above the 10 week MA(currently at 498) to confirm that. https://t.co/g7pYhVC2tZ
BTC's Bear Bounce Targets Falling 100‑Day MA
$BTC - Made a multi week low a month ago. The minimal target for this bear market bounce is the 100 day MA, which it has traded below since October 10. The 100 day MA is currently around 82900 but...
QQQ's Weekly Close Above 100‑DMA Could Defuse Bearish Outlook
$QQQ - Last Wednesday it had a big up day and closed above the 100 day MA ahead of NVDA earnings. Today we had a big up day ahead of AVGO earnings. The 16 week cycle points to a low...
S&P Below 100‑DMA After Hindenburg Omen Usually Falls
There has to be a distinction based on whether $SPX closed above or below the 100 DMA the next day. Those that closed above it, like 12/19/91, 1/12/98, or both the 2019 cases, did much better over the next 2...
Crude Oil Nears Peak, Iran's $200 Threat Unfounded
$USOIL - Crude oil is already showing initial signs of topping as it did last June. I can't believe that some people are gullible enough to believe, that empty threats made by Iran about $200 crude oil prices, are actually...
Series of Hindenburg Omens Echo 2020 Market Crash
Yesterday a 7th Omen was triggered. The last instances there was a cluster of 6 or 7 Omens were February 2020 and August 2019. Obviously this is not February 2020, but it's similar to the August 2019 downtrend in which...
XLE RSI Hits 80, Echoing
$XLE - The 14 week RSI is currently around 80. The last time it reached 80 was in June 2014. The June 2014 top was a major top that was followed by an almost 6 year bear market. https://t.co/VHRCjpkX18
SPX May Slip Below 100‑Day MA, Target 6720
$SPX keeps defending its 100 day MA on a closing basis, though I think it's likely to close below it by the end of the week. When it closes below the 100 DMA the next downside target will be the...
NVDA's Bullish Candle Could Shield Nasdaq 100
$NVDA - The day isn't over yet, but so far we have a bullish engulfing candle off the 200 day MA. If NVDA holds above its 200 DMA for the rest of the week maybe the Nasdaq 100 will not...
Markets Shrug Iran Strikes, Eye Earnings-Driven Sell‑off
Obviously the market doesn't really care about the strikes in Iran. The stock indices are barely down, silver is selling off big and crude oil is spiking, but nothing significant, it's nowhere near last June's high from the previous strike...
SPX Expected to Hold Above 6522, Target 40‑Week MA
$SPX - The next 16 week cycle low is due in the 2nd week of March(March 9-13). In my opinion it's unlikely to drop to the November low at 6522. The probable target is the 40 week MA that closed...
AMD Below 186 Signals Top, Targets 157
$AMD - Approaching the yearly pivot at 186. A weekly close below 186 will confirm that it made a major top in late October and will lead to a decline to the 100 week MA that is currently at 157....
Iran Strike May Push Oil to $73.90 Resistance.
$USOIL monthly - The Israeli-U.S. strike in Iran will propel the price of crude oil to the 1st yearly resistance at 73.90. Above that there's the June 2025 high at 77.64. These are the 2 potential upside targets for next...
TLT Breaks Yearly Pivot, Bullish Toward 93.07
$TLT - Closed the month above the yearly pivot at 88.18. The next upside target is the 1st yearly resistance at 93.07. The 2nd yearly resistance is 98.98. It looks bullish at the moment but you never know how high...
Silver RSI Near 1980 Peak, May Surge Past 94
$Silver - Despite the 40% drawdown from the January high, February was the 10th up month in a row, which never happened before. The 14 month RSI is now at 93.42, its highest level since the 1980 top. My expectation...
Gold Breaks Yearly Resistance, Targets 5764 Despite Record RSI
$Gold - The 14 month RSI closed at 95.67, its highest level in history, but it probably doesn't matter since gold closed the month above the 1st yearly resistance at 5043, and is headed to the 2nd yearly resistance at...
DXY Near 3‑Year Low, Breakout Needed for Confirmation
$DXY - Potentially made a 3 year cycle low in January. February was only a small up month so it's not confirmed yet. A breakout above 100.39 is needed to confirm that the 3 year cycle low is in. A...
Current Chop Mirrors 2014‑15 Pattern, Not 2024‑25 Rally
A lot of people have been comparing the action since late October to the topping process from December 2024 to February 2025 but this comparison is false because the current structure has taken much longer to develop. This is more...
S&P 500 Holds Above 100‑Day Moving Average
$SPX - Ladies and gentlemen: aaaaand stilllll above the 100 day MA: the S&P 500. Wake me up when it closes below it. https://t.co/OU2yiK3lZm
AVGO Below 299.60 Signals Decline Toward 235
$AVGO - Reports on Wednesday. Given what we saw from all big tech stocks so far the most bullish reaction would be a post earnings spike but not to a new ATH or even close to it. On the other...
S&P Holds Above 100‑Day MA, Bulls Remain Confident
$SPX - Yesterday's gap was filled. Still trading above the 100 day MA. As long as it's above the 100 DMA there's no reason for the bulls to be worried. And even if it closes below the 100 DMA we...
NVDA Slides, Targeting 200‑day Support Near $175
$NVDA - Selling off like every big tech stock in this earnings season so far. The immediate downside target is the 200 day MA around 175. https://t.co/TJUNKNN6qL
QQQ Holds Above 100‑Day MA, Eyes NVDA Earnings
$QQQ - Closed above the 100 day MA after a big up day. This marginal close above the 100 DMA with a big gap is fishy but it remains to be seen what happens tomorrow after NVDA earnings. If it...
Oracle's 61% Drop Signals Bear Market Near End
$ORCL - Bottomed at the 200 week MA in early February. The 5 month crash from September to February was significantly bigger than the 2008-2009 and 2022 bear markets in which the drawdown didn't surpass 43%. The drawdown of the...
QQQ Likely Bottomed Feb, Bounce to 614 Ahead
$QQQ - The low for February is probably in though the low of the downtrend that started on January 28 probably isn't. I expect it to bounce to at least the 100 day MA at 614 before we get another...
IGV's Record Volumes Signal Market Capitulation
$IGV - On February 4 it had the biggest volume in history. The next day it had the 2nd biggest volume in history. Yesterday it had the 3rd biggest volume in history, and today it's having the 4th biggest volume...
S&P 500 Tests 100‑Day Support, Weekly Bearish Outlook
$SPX - We had a bearish reversal after hitting the 20 day MA on Friday but found support at the 100 day MA for the 3rd time in February. Closing below the 100 day MA may turn the weekly trend...
IGV Approaches Fourth Repeated Low in 21 Months
$IGV is crashing another 5% today. It has undercut the April 2025 low, but in the last 21 months IGV made 3 separate intermediate term lows in this price range: May 31 2024 - 76.10 August 5 2024 - 75.96 April 7 2025...