Dalius – Special Sits

Dalius – Special Sits

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Event-driven and merger-arbitrage commentary; posts deal spread tables and take analyses.

Emerging Funds Deliver 15%+ CAGR in Last Five Years
SocialApr 15, 2026

Emerging Funds Deliver 15%+ CAGR in Last Five Years

Dropping a list of up-and-coming funds with impeccable track records and great returns since inception. Most launched in the last 5 years, still early, but impressive work thus far. 1) Jackson Peak Capital — 40% CAGR (2023) 2) Kathmandu Capital — 29%...

By Dalius – Special Sits
SE Outpaces TikTok, Valued at 7x 2028 EBITDA
SocialApr 15, 2026

SE Outpaces TikTok, Valued at 7x 2028 EBITDA

$SE -45% on TikTok + margin fears looks overdone - TikTok growth is slowing and expanding the mkt more than taking share, while SE still leads in scale - Pricing is rational and reinvestment is offensive, not defensive - ~7x ’28 EBITDA with...

By Dalius – Special Sits
XPEL Poised for 100%+ Upside After Earnings Inflection
SocialApr 15, 2026

XPEL Poised for 100%+ Upside After Earnings Inflection

Multibagger pitch on $XPEL from @AltaFoxCapital - High quality share gainer in a secularly growing mkt - 3 years of heavy investment → earnings inflection ahead - EBIT margins set to 2x by FY28 - 100% upside on conservative EPS forecast - 250% if...

By Dalius – Special Sits
AI Revolutionizes Investment Research and Idea Generation
SocialApr 14, 2026

AI Revolutionizes Investment Research and Idea Generation

Just stumbled into @AskeladdenTX's Q2'25 letter. AI's implications for investing research and how they are enhancing internal idea generation, tracking, and research processes. Great read and fully agree with the premise. We are doing similar things internally at SSI👇 https://t.co/pWPY3NugdY

By Dalius – Special Sits
Activists Push Discounted $SEER Offer to Force Control
SocialApr 14, 2026

Activists Push Discounted $SEER Offer to Force Control

Activists lob a Kevin Tang-style bid for $SEER. $2.25/share + a CVR to recieve 80% of the net proceeds from future asset sales. Cash offer comes at a discount to likely year-end net cash after WC and leases. Spread to cash...

By Dalius – Special Sits
Close LEG Merger Arb Now: 14% Return in 11 Days
SocialApr 14, 2026

Close LEG Merger Arb Now: 14% Return in 11 Days

Great outcome for $LEG merger arb, 14% return in 11 days. Def. agreement reached, only 3% spread remains. Closing out now makes the most sense. Reg. risk is real, and the offer likely won't be bumped (exchange ratio was already increased)👇...

By Dalius – Special Sits
XPOF Spikes 30% as Activists Force Sale Exploration
SocialApr 13, 2026

XPOF Spikes 30% as Activists Force Sale Exploration

$XPOF continues to run up; up 30% over the last month. Two activists with a major combined stake are pushing for a sale. And most importantly, mgmt caved in and started exploring strategic alts.

By Dalius – Special Sits
MRX Thrives in Chaos, Poised for Multibagger Upside
SocialApr 13, 2026

MRX Thrives in Chaos, Poised for Multibagger Upside

War, volatility, chaos - $MRX's earnings love all of it. - Financial infra firm dressed up as a brokerage - Counter-cyclical by design - 30%+ earnings growth expected - Trades at 8-9x P/E vs. 13-14x for peers - Multibagger upside if the re-rate happens Pitch by...

By Dalius – Special Sits
WJL.AX at 45% Discount; Bidders Still Eye Asset
SocialApr 10, 2026

WJL.AX at 45% Discount; Bidders Still Eye Asset

Time to revisit $WJL.AX. The stock is at an all-time low, ~45% below recent takeover bids. Despite the market losing interest, both bidders likely remain engaged. Recent management changes and continued Helloworld buying suggest prep for another run at the asset👇...

By Dalius – Special Sits
Activist Push Highlights CHGG's Undervalued Split Potential
SocialApr 9, 2026

Activist Push Highlights CHGG's Undervalued Split Potential

$CHGG looks like dead money… yet activism just entered the chat. Galloway disclosed a 5.5% stake, pushing to split Skilling and legacy Academic. Too cheap for a biz with a growth asset and a melting ice cube (Academic) that is still generating...

By Dalius – Special Sits
ADW Capital Presses CODI Liquidation, Targets $26 Share
SocialApr 8, 2026

ADW Capital Presses CODI Liquidation, Targets $26 Share

$CODI is a collection of crown jewels trapped in a fee-mining structure. SOTP lands at ~$12/share vs. the stock at ~$9.6/share. If corporate overhead is eliminated, liquidation value could reach ~$26/share. That’s what ADW Capital is now pushing for: a full piecemeal liquidation. The...

By Dalius – Special Sits
PLTK Faces Sale After 90% Decline, 4x EBITDA
SocialApr 8, 2026

PLTK Faces Sale After 90% Decline, 4x EBITDA

$PLTK is a prominent gaming company that may be up for sale. A strategic review has finally been announced after five difficult years since the IPO. The stock is down about 90% over this period. The company trades at around 4x EV/ 2026E...

By Dalius – Special Sits
KAI: Durable, High‑Margin Supplier Now At Attractive Valuation
SocialApr 7, 2026

KAI: Durable, High‑Margin Supplier Now At Attractive Valuation

$KAI is a mission-critical industrial supplier getting cheaper. With two-thirds of revenue coming from recurring parts and services, this is a durable, high-margin business trading at an attractive price. Pitch by SouthernSun Asset Management https://t.co/Aoh5GLtd0F

By Dalius – Special Sits
FORA MBO Yields Modest Bump, High Upside Potential
SocialApr 7, 2026

FORA MBO Yields Modest Bump, High Upside Potential

$FORA bump finally here. Definitive agreement signed with the founder-led consortium at $2.17/share, but only a 3.3% increase over the original $2.10 bid. Not great, not terrible, given the insider control and the redomiciling move to ease shareholder approval. Looks done.

By Dalius – Special Sits