XPEL Poised for 100%+ Upside After Earnings Inflection
Multibagger pitch on $XPEL from @AltaFoxCapital - High quality share gainer in a secularly growing mkt - 3 years of heavy investment → earnings inflection ahead - EBIT margins set to 2x by FY28 - 100% upside on conservative EPS forecast - 250% if mgmt hits its targets https://t.co/FIRQg1jhLl
AI Revolutionizes Investment Research and Idea Generation
Just stumbled into @AskeladdenTX's Q2'25 letter. AI's implications for investing research and how they are enhancing internal idea generation, tracking, and research processes. Great read and fully agree with the premise. We are doing similar things internally at SSI👇 https://t.co/pWPY3NugdY
Activists Push Discounted $SEER Offer to Force Control
Activists lob a Kevin Tang-style bid for $SEER. $2.25/share + a CVR to recieve 80% of the net proceeds from future asset sales. Cash offer comes at a discount to likely year-end net cash after WC and leases. Spread to cash...
Close LEG Merger Arb Now: 14% Return in 11 Days
Great outcome for $LEG merger arb, 14% return in 11 days. Def. agreement reached, only 3% spread remains. Closing out now makes the most sense. Reg. risk is real, and the offer likely won't be bumped (exchange ratio was already increased)👇...
XPOF Spikes 30% as Activists Force Sale Exploration
$XPOF continues to run up; up 30% over the last month. Two activists with a major combined stake are pushing for a sale. And most importantly, mgmt caved in and started exploring strategic alts.
MRX Thrives in Chaos, Poised for Multibagger Upside
War, volatility, chaos - $MRX's earnings love all of it. - Financial infra firm dressed up as a brokerage - Counter-cyclical by design - 30%+ earnings growth expected - Trades at 8-9x P/E vs. 13-14x for peers - Multibagger upside if the re-rate happens Pitch by...
WJL.AX at 45% Discount; Bidders Still Eye Asset
Time to revisit $WJL.AX. The stock is at an all-time low, ~45% below recent takeover bids. Despite the market losing interest, both bidders likely remain engaged. Recent management changes and continued Helloworld buying suggest prep for another run at the asset👇...
Activist Push Highlights CHGG's Undervalued Split Potential
$CHGG looks like dead money… yet activism just entered the chat. Galloway disclosed a 5.5% stake, pushing to split Skilling and legacy Academic. Too cheap for a biz with a growth asset and a melting ice cube (Academic) that is still generating...
ADW Capital Presses CODI Liquidation, Targets $26 Share
$CODI is a collection of crown jewels trapped in a fee-mining structure. SOTP lands at ~$12/share vs. the stock at ~$9.6/share. If corporate overhead is eliminated, liquidation value could reach ~$26/share. That’s what ADW Capital is now pushing for: a full piecemeal liquidation. The...
PLTK Faces Sale After 90% Decline, 4x EBITDA
$PLTK is a prominent gaming company that may be up for sale. A strategic review has finally been announced after five difficult years since the IPO. The stock is down about 90% over this period. The company trades at around 4x EV/ 2026E...
KAI: Durable, High‑Margin Supplier Now At Attractive Valuation
$KAI is a mission-critical industrial supplier getting cheaper. With two-thirds of revenue coming from recurring parts and services, this is a durable, high-margin business trading at an attractive price. Pitch by SouthernSun Asset Management https://t.co/Aoh5GLtd0F
FORA MBO Yields Modest Bump, High Upside Potential
$FORA bump finally here. Definitive agreement signed with the founder-led consortium at $2.17/share, but only a 3.3% increase over the original $2.10 bid. Not great, not terrible, given the insider control and the redomiciling move to ease shareholder approval. Looks done.
SoFi's Fintech Façade Hides Risky Unsecured Loan Engine
$SOFI's "fintech" mask hides a massive unsecured lending operation - Bank in disguise: lending ~90% of profits, NII >60% - Growth driven by risky unsecured loans in a saturated market - Aggressive accounting inflates earnings - Re-rate to bank multiples => 60%+ downside https://t.co/ZZ8DRGoMRM
Activists, Including Kanen Wealth, Pressure XPOF for Sale
Another activist has joined the fight against $XPOF. Kanen Wealth (owns 4%) is pushing for a sale. The fight won’t be easy, despite activists now owning close to 23% of equity. The board is staggered, and insiders own 40%.
Spread Spike Likely Overreaction to Unexplained Market Shift
Spread has blown out to ~30% for no clear reason, with the stock back to pre-announcement levels. In just 6 weeks, sentiment flipped from pricing a bump (trading above the deal) to questioning close risk entirely. That is a sharp swing, and...
B
$BILD.V is a “boring” flooring roll-up led by a CEO who understands capital allocation. While the housing sector is weak, co is acquiring assets at 1–2x EBITDA. In 2–3 years, it could be trading at a 13–15% FCF yield, with further roll-up...
NRP Poised for 30% Upside as Distributions Return
$NRP is up 30% over the past 12 months. With preferreds retired, the company is set to resume higher distributions. Timing has slipped, though, due to a severe soda ash downcycle forcing reinvestment into the segment. Management now guides to likely distributions...
WNDR.TO Loses Appeal as Spread Narrows, Risks Rise
Time to move on here. $WNDR.TO spread has tightened from ~40% to ~13%, with shares back to prior levels. Op performance has deteriorated meaningfully, and a major early backer has fully exited. With regulatory risk still lingering, the risk/reward no longer...
WMG CEO Outlines AI Risk, Publishing Economics, Growth Outlook
Nice industry breakdown from $WMG CEO. Covers everything from AI risk to music publishing economics to the long-term growth outlook and overall moatiness of the space. Good read: https://t.co/XTKkxy6RPv https://t.co/sGhhtzDs4B
KZR Acquisition Offers Modest 12% Premium, CVR Overvalued
$KZR gets bought out at $6.955/share in cash + CVR. As noted, at $6.20/share, the upside was limited, so a ~12% premium to that level + CVR is a better outcome for shareholders than I expected. As to the CVR play, it...
TWO Bids Heat Up: Cash Offers Near $10.80
Bidding for $TWO may not be over. The company recently received a revised $10.80/share all-cash offer from CrossCountry, with the stock now trading slightly above that level. The original all-stock bid from $UWMC was closer to $12/share before the broader market sell-off...
M&A Spreads Surge, PRTH Hits 29% without News
M&A spreads are just blowing up! $PRTH is spread now at 29%, with no news whatsoever beyond the general market sell-off.
Insiders Acquire Firm at 18% Premium in Privatization
Privatization with a wide ~18% spread. Insiders with majority control are buying out the company’s operations at a price slightly above its cash value. https://t.co/Pesdx9I3wK
FORA's Stellar Year Suggests Bid Should Rise
$FORA just recorded outstanding end-of-year results. Revenue in Q4 was up 37% YoY. Full-year revenue grew 50%, with EBITDA increasing 70%. Management is clearly lowballing, and the bid should be increased. Discussions with the special committee are still ongoing.
OpenAI Stalls Sora Video AI; Erotic Bot Paused
OpenAI closed its video generator Sora. Erotic chatbot plans on hold “indefinitely” 😅 All sensible decisions… but the headlines are absolute gold.
Activist Targets $DRVN, Sees $30 Fair Value, 150% Upside
$DRVN is drawing activist interest. AWD is pushing to end the diversification era and return capital via a competitive sale process. The activist sees fair value north of $30/share, nearly 150% upside from current levels. https://t.co/Yjxfco0zMX
GLNG Eyes Sale After Strategic Alternatives Announcement
$GLNG finally started moving in recent days Yesterday, the company announced it is exploring strategic alternatives. A potential sale is on the table. This could get interesting over the next few months. Read @LuisVSanchez777’s pitch from Sep '25 for more details.
CTRI Poised for Comeback with 30% IRR Target
$CTRI is a broken spin-off staging a comeback - Parent $SWX fully exited; 80% supply overhang is gone - Pure-play exposure to grid load growth and gas infrastructure - DD organic growth + long roll-up runway - Implied 30% IRR with a target of...
Buyout Likely as Activists Target Governance, Shares Plunge
Market is ignoring the looming governance catalyst. Super-voting shares are being phased out as two activists build meaningful stakes, one owning a highly complementary peer. With shares at multi-year lows and the biz stabilizing, the path to a buyout is increasingly likely....
Privatization Arbitrage: Opening Bid Likely to Be Outbid
A new privatization arbitrage opportunity with a reasonable chance that the offer will be bumped. With vote from disinterested shareholders required, the current offer is likely just the opening bid. https://t.co/Z5SqvNRZjD
Jana Partners Demands Board Overhaul, Immediate Sale of FUN
Jana Partners is done waiting for $FUN turnaround. Activist is officially demanding a board overhaul and an immediate sale process. As a reminder, Jana was part of the group that pushed for a turnaround at the end of last year. This must...
Altai Capital Presses OSUR Sale, Activ
$OSUR is a cash box with a diagnostic business attached. Altai Capital is pushing for a full strategic review/sale. Activist has also nominated two directors for the upcoming AGM. Altai's SOPT in the screenshot. https://t.co/tAJzNe8cMy
Even in Bitcoin’s Free Fall, Value Arguments Persist
Bitcoin’s in free fall, might as well have some fun. Here’s one of the most elaborate VIC pitches on Bitcoin from last year, plus the longest debate I’ve seen on the topic. I’m a value guy, no skin in the game, but...
Learn Energy Markets with Palgrave Handbook
Amid commodity chaos, it’s time to learn more about energy markets. One of the best educational resources is Palgrave Handbook of International Energy Economics. Covers everything from replacement value of energy assets to detailed S&D dynamics👇 https://t.co/v8BqCYbaZB
ASTS Clears Technical Hurdle, Targets Six Satellites Monthly
$ASTS just crossed the Rubicon With the largest commercial antenna ever deployed now operational, the technical risk is gone. Focus shifts to a production cadence of 6 satellites per month. Pitch by @CrossroadsOnX https://t.co/djAsgaqhct
LNSR Spread Widens, Credit Line Hints at Deal Delay
$LNSR spread to the $14 cash offer back to ~40% after the latest update. Co disclosed a credit line allowing it to borrow up to $9.2m. Market seems to read this, together with the last update, as a signal that the...
LEG Merger Arb Spread Swells to 18% Amid Turmoil
$LEG merger arb is getting juicy. Deal is non-binding. Spread now ~18%. Spread went from ~6% → 18%, mostly on recent mkt turmoil. Mgmt gave $SGI long DD access, cancelled the conf call, and multiple execs just got CoC bonuses. Downside ~10% if...
OpenAI Preferred Shares Pitch Sparks Quiet Market Buzz
OpenAI preferreds were pitched on Value Investors Club a few days ago. But yeah, nothing to see here. Totally normal market😅 https://t.co/N0ptnqecdA
PETS Faces 30% Decline, Cash Burn Threatens Survival
$PETS is down about 30% since January. Not a surprise, it looked far too risky at those prices, and management did not seem particularly eager to sell. Operations seem to be deteriorating quarter after quarter. In Q3 (Dec ’25 end), revenue declined...
Irth Capital Eyes $47 Takeover Bid for PZZA
$PZZA is back in the rumor mill - This time Irth Capital is mentioned alongside Brookfield. - Irth already owns ~5% and reportedly tried to bid last year. - Rumored price: $47/share vs $36 today. - At ~10x EBITDA, there’s room for...
Nano‑cap Short $CASI Plummets 30%, Spread 700%
If it was easy to short every nano-cap shitco, this would have been a great short. $CASI, now known as $CASIF, is down 30% since my post. This likely goes to zero. Let’s see how things develop, tracking it closely anyway. The spread...
PRTH Still Cheap
$PRTH spread remains wide at 17% - Co just reported earnings, with rev and EBITDA in line with guidance - Expected a 19% slowdown from LDD in one of the segments, making the overbid thesis harder. - Yet, the bid still looks too...
FTAI's Narrative Shifts Toward Capital‑Light Model
The narrative on $FTAI is starting to change - Leading MRO franchise for CFM56 engines - Transforming into a capital-light, high-visibility model - Yet still valued like a cyclical lessor - Perception began to shift in Q4 - Time to take a closer look Pitch by...
XPOF Sale Push Could Yield 2x+ Returns
$XPOF setup is getting interesting - Voss Capital (19%) pushing for a sale - Boutique fitness franchisor trading at ~6x EBITDA vs peers in the mid-teens - If sold, this could easily be a 2x+ - Key issue is the staggered board + insiders...
DSX Raises Offer, Poison Pill Hinders GNK Takeover
$DSX isn’t giving up on acquiring $GNK - New bid at $23.50/shr (~14% above the rejected offer) - Spread ~7% - DSX (owns 14.5%) brought in $SBLK as a deal partner - Might be interesting at these levels - But keep in mind management...
Founder Group Poised to Close $RSVR Buyout Above $11
$RSVR buyout likely gets done with a bump - Founder-led group (own 65%) bid $10.5/sh days after Irenic (9%) floated $10–11 - Deal likely lands with the founder group at $11+, ~10% above current px - At 15.6x EBITDA, the offer looks somewhat...
Croatti Family Blocks UNF Deal Despite Activist Pressure
$UNF $CTAS rumor mill is back in action. Consider me highly skeptical, this is bound to fail again. Since 2022, UNF has rejected every single approach, including the latest one in December 2025. Now rumors suggest that CTAS is willing to raise its...
Activists Target SEER at 60% Cash, 35% Upside
Activists close in on a net-net trading at ~60% of cash - $SEER trades at $1.83/shr vs ~$3/shr in net cash - Founder lost super-voting control in Dec ’25 - Now activists (7.6%) are pushing for a sale - Board is declassified and up...
Caesars Sale Rumors Spark Share Jump Amid Low Valuation
Famed casino operator back in play? - $CZR reportedly exploring a sale after takeover interest incl. Tilman Fertitta - Shares +20% on the news but still near 5yr lows - Trades ~8x Adj. EBITDA - Some room for improved bid, but ~$30B EV vs...
Company Sells OpCo, Returns 90% Proceeds, Exceeds Market Cap
Sale followed by a large capital return - Co selling its entire OpCo while returning 90% of the proceeds to shareholders - Distributions alone exceed the co's current mcap - Plus you get a RemainCo with meaningful net cash and a small growth...