SoFi's Fintech Façade Hides Risky Unsecured Loan Engine
$SOFI's "fintech" mask hides a massive unsecured lending operation - Bank in disguise: lending ~90% of profits, NII >60% - Growth driven by risky unsecured loans in a saturated market - Aggressive accounting inflates earnings - Re-rate to bank multiples => 60%+ downside https://t.co/ZZ8DRGoMRM
Activists, Including Kanen Wealth, Pressure XPOF for Sale
Another activist has joined the fight against $XPOF. Kanen Wealth (owns 4%) is pushing for a sale. The fight won’t be easy, despite activists now owning close to 23% of equity. The board is staggered, and insiders own 40%.
Spread Spike Likely Overreaction to Unexplained Market Shift
Spread has blown out to ~30% for no clear reason, with the stock back to pre-announcement levels. In just 6 weeks, sentiment flipped from pricing a bump (trading above the deal) to questioning close risk entirely. That is a sharp swing, and...
B
$BILD.V is a “boring” flooring roll-up led by a CEO who understands capital allocation. While the housing sector is weak, co is acquiring assets at 1–2x EBITDA. In 2–3 years, it could be trading at a 13–15% FCF yield, with further roll-up...
NRP Poised for 30% Upside as Distributions Return
$NRP is up 30% over the past 12 months. With preferreds retired, the company is set to resume higher distributions. Timing has slipped, though, due to a severe soda ash downcycle forcing reinvestment into the segment. Management now guides to likely distributions...
WNDR.TO Loses Appeal as Spread Narrows, Risks Rise
Time to move on here. $WNDR.TO spread has tightened from ~40% to ~13%, with shares back to prior levels. Op performance has deteriorated meaningfully, and a major early backer has fully exited. With regulatory risk still lingering, the risk/reward no longer...
WMG CEO Outlines AI Risk, Publishing Economics, Growth Outlook
Nice industry breakdown from $WMG CEO. Covers everything from AI risk to music publishing economics to the long-term growth outlook and overall moatiness of the space. Good read: https://t.co/XTKkxy6RPv https://t.co/sGhhtzDs4B
KZR Acquisition Offers Modest 12% Premium, CVR Overvalued
$KZR gets bought out at $6.955/share in cash + CVR. As noted, at $6.20/share, the upside was limited, so a ~12% premium to that level + CVR is a better outcome for shareholders than I expected. As to the CVR play, it...
TWO Bids Heat Up: Cash Offers Near $10.80
Bidding for $TWO may not be over. The company recently received a revised $10.80/share all-cash offer from CrossCountry, with the stock now trading slightly above that level. The original all-stock bid from $UWMC was closer to $12/share before the broader market sell-off...
M&A Spreads Surge, PRTH Hits 29% without News
M&A spreads are just blowing up! $PRTH is spread now at 29%, with no news whatsoever beyond the general market sell-off.
Insiders Acquire Firm at 18% Premium in Privatization
Privatization with a wide ~18% spread. Insiders with majority control are buying out the company’s operations at a price slightly above its cash value. https://t.co/Pesdx9I3wK
FORA's Stellar Year Suggests Bid Should Rise
$FORA just recorded outstanding end-of-year results. Revenue in Q4 was up 37% YoY. Full-year revenue grew 50%, with EBITDA increasing 70%. Management is clearly lowballing, and the bid should be increased. Discussions with the special committee are still ongoing.
OpenAI Stalls Sora Video AI; Erotic Bot Paused
OpenAI closed its video generator Sora. Erotic chatbot plans on hold “indefinitely” 😅 All sensible decisions… but the headlines are absolute gold.
Activist Targets $DRVN, Sees $30 Fair Value, 150% Upside
$DRVN is drawing activist interest. AWD is pushing to end the diversification era and return capital via a competitive sale process. The activist sees fair value north of $30/share, nearly 150% upside from current levels. https://t.co/Yjxfco0zMX
GLNG Eyes Sale After Strategic Alternatives Announcement
$GLNG finally started moving in recent days Yesterday, the company announced it is exploring strategic alternatives. A potential sale is on the table. This could get interesting over the next few months. Read @LuisVSanchez777’s pitch from Sep '25 for more details.
CTRI Poised for Comeback with 30% IRR Target
$CTRI is a broken spin-off staging a comeback - Parent $SWX fully exited; 80% supply overhang is gone - Pure-play exposure to grid load growth and gas infrastructure - DD organic growth + long roll-up runway - Implied 30% IRR with a target of...
Buyout Likely as Activists Target Governance, Shares Plunge
Market is ignoring the looming governance catalyst. Super-voting shares are being phased out as two activists build meaningful stakes, one owning a highly complementary peer. With shares at multi-year lows and the biz stabilizing, the path to a buyout is increasingly likely....
Privatization Arbitrage: Opening Bid Likely to Be Outbid
A new privatization arbitrage opportunity with a reasonable chance that the offer will be bumped. With vote from disinterested shareholders required, the current offer is likely just the opening bid. https://t.co/Z5SqvNRZjD
Jana Partners Demands Board Overhaul, Immediate Sale of FUN
Jana Partners is done waiting for $FUN turnaround. Activist is officially demanding a board overhaul and an immediate sale process. As a reminder, Jana was part of the group that pushed for a turnaround at the end of last year. This must...
Altai Capital Presses OSUR Sale, Activ
$OSUR is a cash box with a diagnostic business attached. Altai Capital is pushing for a full strategic review/sale. Activist has also nominated two directors for the upcoming AGM. Altai's SOPT in the screenshot. https://t.co/tAJzNe8cMy
Even in Bitcoin’s Free Fall, Value Arguments Persist
Bitcoin’s in free fall, might as well have some fun. Here’s one of the most elaborate VIC pitches on Bitcoin from last year, plus the longest debate I’ve seen on the topic. I’m a value guy, no skin in the game, but...
Learn Energy Markets with Palgrave Handbook
Amid commodity chaos, it’s time to learn more about energy markets. One of the best educational resources is Palgrave Handbook of International Energy Economics. Covers everything from replacement value of energy assets to detailed S&D dynamics👇 https://t.co/v8BqCYbaZB
ASTS Clears Technical Hurdle, Targets Six Satellites Monthly
$ASTS just crossed the Rubicon With the largest commercial antenna ever deployed now operational, the technical risk is gone. Focus shifts to a production cadence of 6 satellites per month. Pitch by @CrossroadsOnX https://t.co/djAsgaqhct
LNSR Spread Widens, Credit Line Hints at Deal Delay
$LNSR spread to the $14 cash offer back to ~40% after the latest update. Co disclosed a credit line allowing it to borrow up to $9.2m. Market seems to read this, together with the last update, as a signal that the...
LEG Merger Arb Spread Swells to 18% Amid Turmoil
$LEG merger arb is getting juicy. Deal is non-binding. Spread now ~18%. Spread went from ~6% → 18%, mostly on recent mkt turmoil. Mgmt gave $SGI long DD access, cancelled the conf call, and multiple execs just got CoC bonuses. Downside ~10% if...
OpenAI Preferred Shares Pitch Sparks Quiet Market Buzz
OpenAI preferreds were pitched on Value Investors Club a few days ago. But yeah, nothing to see here. Totally normal market😅 https://t.co/N0ptnqecdA
PETS Faces 30% Decline, Cash Burn Threatens Survival
$PETS is down about 30% since January. Not a surprise, it looked far too risky at those prices, and management did not seem particularly eager to sell. Operations seem to be deteriorating quarter after quarter. In Q3 (Dec ’25 end), revenue declined...
Irth Capital Eyes $47 Takeover Bid for PZZA
$PZZA is back in the rumor mill - This time Irth Capital is mentioned alongside Brookfield. - Irth already owns ~5% and reportedly tried to bid last year. - Rumored price: $47/share vs $36 today. - At ~10x EBITDA, there’s room for...
Nano‑cap Short $CASI Plummets 30%, Spread 700%
If it was easy to short every nano-cap shitco, this would have been a great short. $CASI, now known as $CASIF, is down 30% since my post. This likely goes to zero. Let’s see how things develop, tracking it closely anyway. The spread...
PRTH Still Cheap
$PRTH spread remains wide at 17% - Co just reported earnings, with rev and EBITDA in line with guidance - Expected a 19% slowdown from LDD in one of the segments, making the overbid thesis harder. - Yet, the bid still looks too...
FTAI's Narrative Shifts Toward Capital‑Light Model
The narrative on $FTAI is starting to change - Leading MRO franchise for CFM56 engines - Transforming into a capital-light, high-visibility model - Yet still valued like a cyclical lessor - Perception began to shift in Q4 - Time to take a closer look Pitch by...
XPOF Sale Push Could Yield 2x+ Returns
$XPOF setup is getting interesting - Voss Capital (19%) pushing for a sale - Boutique fitness franchisor trading at ~6x EBITDA vs peers in the mid-teens - If sold, this could easily be a 2x+ - Key issue is the staggered board + insiders...
DSX Raises Offer, Poison Pill Hinders GNK Takeover
$DSX isn’t giving up on acquiring $GNK - New bid at $23.50/shr (~14% above the rejected offer) - Spread ~7% - DSX (owns 14.5%) brought in $SBLK as a deal partner - Might be interesting at these levels - But keep in mind management...
Founder Group Poised to Close $RSVR Buyout Above $11
$RSVR buyout likely gets done with a bump - Founder-led group (own 65%) bid $10.5/sh days after Irenic (9%) floated $10–11 - Deal likely lands with the founder group at $11+, ~10% above current px - At 15.6x EBITDA, the offer looks somewhat...
Croatti Family Blocks UNF Deal Despite Activist Pressure
$UNF $CTAS rumor mill is back in action. Consider me highly skeptical, this is bound to fail again. Since 2022, UNF has rejected every single approach, including the latest one in December 2025. Now rumors suggest that CTAS is willing to raise its...
Activists Target SEER at 60% Cash, 35% Upside
Activists close in on a net-net trading at ~60% of cash - $SEER trades at $1.83/shr vs ~$3/shr in net cash - Founder lost super-voting control in Dec ’25 - Now activists (7.6%) are pushing for a sale - Board is declassified and up...
Caesars Sale Rumors Spark Share Jump Amid Low Valuation
Famed casino operator back in play? - $CZR reportedly exploring a sale after takeover interest incl. Tilman Fertitta - Shares +20% on the news but still near 5yr lows - Trades ~8x Adj. EBITDA - Some room for improved bid, but ~$30B EV vs...
Company Sells OpCo, Returns 90% Proceeds, Exceeds Market Cap
Sale followed by a large capital return - Co selling its entire OpCo while returning 90% of the proceeds to shareholders - Distributions alone exceed the co's current mcap - Plus you get a RemainCo with meaningful net cash and a small growth...
Tender Offer Likely Post‑Sale, Potential 40‑80% Upside
Tender offer potentially followed by liquidation - After a major asset sale, a tender is likely in the coming months - While not official, signs point to a full sale or wind-down - Co divested all non-core and half of core assets - Expected...
KORE Deal Surprises: 85% Bid Jump, 100% Return
Expected a $KORE definitive agreement to be struck. Did not expect an 85% bump to the original $5/shr bid. Over 100% total return since Nov'25. Remaining spread to the $9.25/share bid is just ~3%. One of the most unexpected M&A outcomes I’ve...
Special Committee Rejects Buyout, Stock Stays Flat
Special committee decision is in on $INMD. All bids were deemed inadequate, so the buyout thesis is off the table, at least for now. The stock has basically never moved from pre-announcement levels. The market was highly efficient on this one.
FTC Delays Alcon Deal, Closing Slips to H1’26
FTC compliance with the second request is ongoing in Alcon’s $LNSR takeout. Closing pushed again: now H1’26 from Q1’26 (already delayed from YE’25). With an ~18% spread to the cash offer, it’s getting harder to believe this deal closes.
Activist Demands Full Sale, Board Faces Ouster
Strategic review under activist pressure w/ ~70% upside - Prominent activist pushing for full sale + plans to replace majority of board - AGM a few months away - Stock at all-time lows (~4x EBITDA) - One seg. sale announced; board now pressured to...
VRE Buyout Offers 5% Cap Rate, Minimal Downside
Good outline of the $VRE buyout. There’s probably a small chance of an overbid here. But, to be honest, probably close to zero, at a 5% implied cap rate. But we’ll see. Downside is only ~10% and the buyer isn’t walking, so...
AGI Privatization Falters; Stock Trades Above $1 Bid
As expected, $AGI.AX privatization failed - Novomatic (67%) failed to reach 75% delisting threshold - Stock now ~15% above the A$1.00/sh bid since Sep - Activist argues for ~A$3.00/sh (likely stretched) - Novo can re-bid in a few months, overbid thesis looks enticing now.
Nelson Peltz Flags WEN Undervaluation, Potential Buyout
$WEN targeted by LT shareholder & former Chairman Nelson Peltz (13D filed). - Says shares are undervalued and strategic options incl. a buyout may be explored. - He looked at a deal in 2022 but walked. - Stock at ~8x...
Fund 1 Takes 10% Stake, Presses FNKO Sale
Fund 1 pops a 10% stake in $FNKO. Pushing for a sale of the struggling branded collectibles biz. Co trades ~5x Q3 run-rate EBITDA w/ room for further normalization. Staggered board though, so tough to see real movement unless mgmt is open to...
HZO Faces Activist Pressure, $35 Bid and Strategic Review Demand
$HZO continues to face pressure from Donerail. - Activist/bidder is opposing the CEO’s re-election at the upcoming AGM. - Donerail has reiterated its $35/share offer. - Levin Capital (~3%) is also calling for a strategic review after HZO failed to capitalize on...
ONL Rejects $2.75 Offer, Provokes Kawa Proxy Battle
$ONL is a left-for-dead small-cap REIT spin-co. - Entered a cooperation agreement with Kawa Capital (~10%) and launched a strategic review - Kawa offered $2.75/sh last year (stock ~$2.55 today) - Board rejected it as undervaluing, triggering a proxy fight from Kawa. https://t.co/UAlAiUmg9p
Oil & Gas Consolidation Accelerates; KNTK Near Deal Valuation
Consolidation in Oil & Gas keeps accelerating - $KNTK is reportedly being approached by $OXY-backed $WES. - Delaware Basin pipeline operator is up 10%+ on the news and even more ytd - Upside looks limited, any deal likely prices near the current mcap....
