Lowball PE Bid Rejected, Expect 20%+ Upside
Highly asymmetric. One month timeline. Two PE firms lob a lowball bid. Management rejects immediately. Deal was dead on arrival, hard to believe they weren't prepared for round two. 20%+ bump likely. Only 6-10% downside. Full pitch on SSI 👇 https://t.co/QmQFVu9WoU
Panic Sell‑Off Makes $GMS.L a 100% Upside Play
Panic sell-off creating a perfect entry point on $GMS.L - London listed, 15 support vessel operators - Trading at 4x EBITDA with 20% FCF yield - Improving BS + massive backlog visibility - Capital dist. set to resume in '26 - 100% upside if catalyst...
California Hurdle Cleared, PRA Merger Delay Boosts Short
$PRA merger break has been a long one. As noted, nothing was expected until the June 2026 deadline, and here we are. California, as the final hurdle, was always in the thesis. Cutting it this close actually seems like a positive for...
Opco Sale Undervalued, Buyer Poised for 70% Upside
One of the most egregious privatisations in recent times. Opco is being stolen for free. Offer is dead on arrival. The buyer knew it and was likely prepared to substantially bump from day one. 40-70% upside on a bump. Full pitch on SSI...
Potential 65% Gain on CCRN After Failed Buyout
Absolute banger pitch from Long Cast on $CCRN 65% return if you timed the entry right after the previous buyout fell through. Stock being bought at $13.25/share. Previous offer was $19/share. Room for an overbid? Maybe.
KKR: High‑margin Compounder Trading at Fire‑sale Valuation
$KKR is a compounder at a fire sale price - AUM tripled since '19, on track to $1T+ by '30 - $5B+ in mgmt fees at 70% margins - Private credit fears overblown, direct lending is just 5% of AUM - Insiders bought $50M...
BARK Plummets 30% After Deal Rejection; Exit Now
What a disaster $BARK has been since the deal rejection. Down another 30% since the Lemonis bid was rejected. Insiders not coming back to the table, at least for now. Good reminder for $PETS arbs: massive spreads are there for a reason. Exit...
Weiss Joins WJL Board, Helloworld Poised for Aggressive Move
$WJL.AX just handed Gary Weiss a board seat. The same Weiss who ran a board-spill and lobbed a rejected bid last November. Cheaper to absorb him than fight another proxy war in August. The real story is Helloworld. Same 18.3% stake...
OpenSquareCap’s Q1 Letter Maps Post‑War Energy Market Outlook
Q1 letter from @OpenSquareCap is the best breakdown of Iran war energy implications I've read. The granularity of the supply chain analysis and alt data interpretation is just something else. Whatever the outcome of the conflict, this letter maps out where energy...
GME's eBay Offer Makes No Sense, Pure Hype
$GME bid clearly fails for $EBAY. But I think Cohen knows it too. There is simply no way this deal makes sense for eBay. So what's the play here? I guess it's just another way to bring retail attention to the stock....
RGS Turns Around: FCF Rising, Refinancing Could Cut Valuation
$RGS, a hair salon franchisor, is crossing the Rubicon in its turnaround. FCF inflecting, closures slowing, massive refinancing incoming. Already cheap at 12x TTM FCF. If refinancing succeeds in cutting interest, co trades at 7-8x FCF. Full pitch: https://t.co/wcFgp9Utv7 https://t.co/XKWI6URRHG
NVRI Approves Clean Earth Sale; Harsco Spin‑off Set for 202
$NVRI shareholders have approved the sale of the Clean Earth division to Veolia. Spin-off of Harsco Environmental and Rail remains on track for mid-2026. Full pitch 👇
CEO Profanity Can Signal Imminent Premium Buyout
Guess $MDV's CEO wasn't lying when he said the stock was way too f***ing low back in March. Just got bought out at a 20%+ premium to those levels. Lesson learned, look out for more swearing from CEOs. Might be a strong...
UWMC Reenters Bidding War with $12 Offer
$UWMC said they never wanted $TWO after being rejected. A month later, they're back with a higher bid. New offer at $12/share, fully cash or stock. Above CrossCountry's increased cash bid of $11.30/share. One of the most bizarre setups I've seen recently....
RPAY Rejects Deadline Waiver, Spread Widens To
Thus far this is going as expected. $RPAY board has rejected Verdace Partners' (8% stake) request to waive the nomination deadline for the upcoming AGM. Of course they did. Yet Forager's $4.80/share bid continues to be reviewed. Spread has widened to 24.5%.
ASRT Offer Launch Delayed Until Monday, Docs Incomplete
$ASRT offer launch got extended to Monday, right after the window-shop period expired. Either new interested parties showed up, or, a simpler explanation, Asserio/Garda just haven't finished the tender docs in time and need a few more days. We'll see soon.
TTD Slowdown Misread; Fundamentals Remain Solid
$TTD slowdown is misunderstood - Dominant independent DSP for open internet ads - Growth slowed in '25, stock crushed - Amazon/AI fears overblown - Advertisers still need independent DSP platforms - No scaled comps ~$10B mkt cap, $1.3B net cash, ~$1B FCF Pitch by Saga Partners https://t.co/EyIxIZoKfB
MYE Undervalued: Signature Systems Drives Hidden 70% EV
$MYE looking cheap again. Still up 30% since the original pitch, but trading at 10x EV/2025 FCF. Hidden asset Signature Systems is potentially worth 70% of EV alone. Gamco, with a 15% stake pushing for a Signature partial IPO. Management mute on...
Big‑Cap Stocks See Valuations Diverge From Fundamentals
We are seeing a massive decoupling of valuations from fundamentals. The larger the stock, the more intense this shift becomes. Here is the data on the new market reality 🧵 h/t @mjmauboussin for this wealth of data. https://t.co/3cVr2WqgiZ
TRIP Stock Faces Activist Review, 50% Upside Potential
$TRIP ticked up a bit but is still actionable. Strategic review under activist pressure. Potential upside 50%+. Full pitch below. https://t.co/oYeMLT8DbS
LFCR Undervalued; Upcoming Site Transfers Could Drive 25% Margins
$LFCR beaten down again on fears of equity issuance, lingering preferred concerns, and general liquidity worries. They have enough liquidity to cover the preferreds. Debt is not a concern as of yet. Meanwhile, the company has reported 5 site transfers in the...
CEO Exit Signals Possible Sale, Limited Upside
$RYAM setup looks diabolical. Company exploring a sale and just let go of the CEO. Not just any CEO, a big shot turnaround hire brought in just this January. Back in November, 5% shareholder AIP lobbed a strategic bid at $11-12/share. Rejected...
AI Accelerates Economic Shift: Data-Driven Insights
AI is changing the economy faster than anything before it. But what does the data actually say? Horizon Investments just dropped a great macro deck. Here are the key AI data points 🧵 https://t.co/tdY7YosR9w
Why $MAPS Feels Off: Key Concerns Explained
Some more thoughts on $MAPS if you want to hear exactly why I think this doesn't smell right.
Deep Sail Capital Sees 200% Upside in AMPG
Worth reading this one. Full AMPG pitch by Deep Sail Capital. Base case upside of 200%.
Refi Lifts Cash Flow 50% As
Successful refinancing could lift FCF by ~50% in a biz w/ thousands of franchise locations. Immediate risk is already off the table following an emergency refi. The board has been refreshed, with a new CEO and chairman, and activists are leading a...
Radoff's $SEER Offer Serves Activist Campaign, Not Deal
Radoff back with an improved bid for $SEER. $2.35/share in cash plus a CVR. Board hasn't picked up the phone in two weeks. Poison pill slapped on within days of the proposal. Here's how this plays out: the offer gets rejected....
Small Caps Remain Only Safe Haven for Fundamentalists
Ricky Sandler on closing his fund 👇 I guess small caps are the only safe haven for fundamentalists. Or so we hope... https://t.co/MOkIZVNNQs
Activist Bid Unlikely to Succeed, Expect Stock Rebound
$RPAY will likely get taken out, just not this time. Forager (owns 13%) lobbed a bid at $4.80/share. Spread sitting at 20%. Two more activists on the registry. Together, they control 30%+ of the stock. But management isn't going quietly. Poison pill...
PMVP Poised for Sale After Strong Phase 2 Results
Some movement on $PMVP worth flagging. Strong Phase 2 results, the market gave zero credit. But something is stirring. Board just appointed Laurie Stelzer as Chairman. CFO track record across multiple major pharma buyouts. Clear corporate finance chops. PMVP might be prepping for...
Nordic Market Overlooks KESKOB's Undervalued Growth Potential
Nordic market is sleeping on this one. - $KESKOB at 16x EPS on depressed earnings - Grocery cash machine (35% mkt share) funds the whole show - Building products at trough, recovery could 2x segment profits - Buying assets while peers retrench Pitch by @UpslopeCapital...
Activist Push Reveals Asset Worth Over Company Valuation
High-quality asset trapped inside a dysfunctional company. Activists with 20% stake have forced a strategic review. Core asset alone is worth more than the entire EV. 50%+ upside if the company eventually gets sold. https://t.co/2ryfkObL69
Sports Franchise Valuations Outpace Revenue Multiples, Lacking Catalyst
Padres are reportedly selling at 9x revenue. Slap that multiple on $BATRK, owner of the Atlanta Braves, and there's 100%+ upside. Ex. real estate assets. Honestly, these multiples are irrelevant, sports franchises are collectables for billionaires to have fun. But the Braves...
BLDR Undervalued: Massive Cash Flow, Housing Shortage Persists
Market is throwing out the baby with the bathwater on $BLDR. Down 28% in 2025, another 20% in Q1 2026. Yet $875MM in free cash flow, 10-13% FCF yield, and zero growth priced in. Structural US housing shortage isn't going away. Pitch by...
Most Acquirer Mergers Destroy Value; Premiums Risk Overpayment
The VIC bashing I've been seeing on Twitter is a bit over the top, honestly. $BLD got bought at a 20% premium, who's to say $QXO didn't overpay here? Remember, the absolute majority of mergers end up value-destructive for the acquirer.
Activists Target GCO Board to Unlock 10x EBITDA Value
Bradley Radoff and Jumana Capital just filed a combined 13D on $GCO, famous footwear retailer and wholesaler. Activists at almost 8%. Pzena, the well known value shop, is the largest shareholder at 11.5%. Plan is to engage the board on value unlock...
CAR Token Surges 6x in Two Weeks
$CAR (super levered car rental) does not stop squeezing. Already up 6x in the last two weeks. Anyone trading this somehow? Thoughts? https://t.co/fcdZQ57HIu
Strategic Buyer Nears Mandatory Offer with 20% Upside
Mandatory offer incoming — 20% upside on the table. Strategic buyer just crossed the triggering threshold. A bid for the remaining minority stake is likely to come within months. Well-protected downside. https://t.co/kdWd6P5ec8
Top Deep‑Value Blogs to Bookmark for Hidden Gems
Some of the best deep value / special sits blogs I've started following over the last 12 months, a mix of private investors and funds, all worth bookmarking 👇 1) @everyonehatesp1: Small & micro-cap ideas with inflection and catalyst-rich trades 2) @MaiusPartners:...
ASRT CVR: 1¢ Entry, 50¢ Potential Return
Another CVR play posted on SSI. $ASRT not technically a free CVR, but about as close as it gets. 1 cent for a 50 cent per share potential payout. Capital back in 5 weeks. Full write-up is in the public domain👇 https://t.co/FCRt9gHyy2
Arbitrage 1% SSI Merger Spread, Free CVR Optionality
New CVR play just dropped on SSI. Arb the 1% merger spread over the next 60 days and keep the CVR optionality for free. https://t.co/42wEktiVwN
AI-Built Finance Tools Force Bloomberg to Slash Prices
Just stumbled on GitHub's #1 project today, a "Bloomberg competitor" vibe-coded by Claude. One financial data platform after another is launching every week. The cost of building this stuff is collapsing. Bloombergs of the world will survive. I don't think any vibe-coded...
NVRI to Return 80% Market Cap, Remaining Assets Cheap
Large capital distribution on $NVRI is around the corner. Co will return 76–87% of market cap by mid-2026 when the sale of its major asset closes. The two remaining businesses look cheap post-distribution. Full write-up below👇 https://t.co/xF03DsgxFg
High‑Spread LSTA Merger Arb: Big Reward, 35% Risk
$LSTA merger arb for the brave👇 Spread just blew out to 48% on a cash offer. Tender postponed, buyer is hunting for financing at "better terms." Buyer previously licensed LSTA's drug. They know the asset. They want it. This is a definitive...
Fake Tender Dilutes Shareholders, Signals Stock Manipulation
Getting tons of emails on $RBNE odd lot trade. My take: the offer is fake. Here's why. Management doubles market cap via ATM offering, diluting shareholders into oblivion. Then comes back months later with a 200% partial tender to buy back a...
Activist Catalyst Could Unlock $20‑25 Valuation for ALOT
$ALOT is a solid goodco/badco setup with a clear catalyst - Activist (9.2%) ousted the CEO, took a board seat, and forced a strategic review (now underway) - Earnings power is masked by a bad acquisition a few years back - On norm....
Activist Ainsworth Ups Offer, Resolution Still Uncertain
$AGI.AX saga continues. The activist who played an instrumental role in blocking Novomatic’s lowball A$1/share bid is at it again. Ainsworth is now tendering for 5.5% of the company at A$1.30/share, ~30% above Novomatic’s offer. That said, with Novomatic management in turmoil (CEO...
Activist Galloway Backs JETMF, Claims 10x Upside
$JETMF is attracting activist attention. Galloway has become the 2nd largest shareholder with an 8.2% stake. Activist claims fair value is c. $9.5/share, implying 10x+ upside from current levels. Has anyone looked into this? Feels way too promotional. https://t.co/NxEzYYcTGj
Emerging Funds Deliver 15%+ CAGR in Last Five Years
Dropping a list of up-and-coming funds with impeccable track records and great returns since inception. Most launched in the last 5 years, still early, but impressive work thus far. 1) Jackson Peak Capital — 40% CAGR (2023) 2) Kathmandu Capital — 29%...
SE Outpaces TikTok, Valued at 7x 2028 EBITDA
$SE -45% on TikTok + margin fears looks overdone - TikTok growth is slowing and expanding the mkt more than taking share, while SE still leads in scale - Pricing is rational and reinvestment is offensive, not defensive - ~7x ’28 EBITDA with...