Compute Costs Limit AI's Job Disruption to High-Value Tasks
A big determinant of AI's job impact is driven by the lack of compute, especially for agentic work, which takes a lot of it. That makes AI expensive. So companies will only want to burn compute on high-value tasks (eg coding), because, in other jobs, humans remain much cheaper.
AI Maps Lighthouses, Then Turns Them Into Monster‑warding Game
I had Codex create a version of the map of the lighthouses of the Northern seas, including real colors, light patterns & distances But then I had it also create a mode set in a Lovecraftian 1920s where you need to...
Weak AGI Already Passed Turing, Winograd, SAT—Only Atari Remains
Lets look at the criteria for "weak AGI": ✅Loebner prize was a weak Turing Test, equivalent achieved by GPT-4.5 ✅Winograd passed by GPT-3 ✅SAT passed at 75% by GPT-4 Only remaining thing is playing an old Atari game from 1984. The...
AI Isn’t Inherently Homogenizing; Prompts Unlock Diverse Ideas
The claim that AI is inevitably homogenizing is not what research finds. By default, AI produces similar answers, but with better prompting, context, or human interaction, you can get a lot of idea diversity.
AI Labs Prioritize Self‑improving Models over Consumer Products
The core focus for the AI Labs really is "make the smartest model you can so it can make better models so it can make a superintelligence 1st." That is where the money goes The fact that they ship a whole...
Funding Surge Fuels Diverse AI Paths Beyond LLMs
There are now over a half dozen extremely well-funded companies from famous AI researchers building alternative approaches to AI, betting LLM-based technologies hit a wall. The overall effect is that there are now more pathways than ever for keeping AI...
NotebookLM's Video AI Crafts Witty Sauron Strategy
NotebookLM: Do a deep research report and make a video where a consultant gives Sauron a strategy for actually winning the War of the Ring: "All you need to do is sign off to put a simple door on...
Even a Pause, AI Will Reshape White‑Collar Jobs
We really could stop AI development right now and it would still transform a substantial portion of white collar work, often unrecognizably, over the next 5-10 years as people figure out how to make the technology work in various industries,...
Overbroad AI Governance Stifles Distributed Decision-Making
It seems it was unfortunate that companies lumped every concern about AI into the overall labels of "governance" or "responsible AI" It creates a giant tangle around discussions of the risks and rewards of AI use cases, and often centralizes decisions...
AI's Real Power Lies in Boosting Organizational Efficiency
The "how does AI improve individual productivity" discussion is much less interesting than "how does AI improve organizational efficiency?" We have a lot of answers to the former, but it will always get eaten by the latter if we don't...
Microsoft's New Cowork Clone Raises Transparency and Longevity Concerns
Microsoft seems to be launching its own branded version of Cowork (though I hesitate to discuss products I haven’t tried) A big question is whether it will continue to use lower-end models without telling you. Also whether it will keep up...
New Slay the Spire 2 Release Derails My Productivity
Oh no, Slay the Spire 2 just came out, and I was being so productive.
AI Frontier Stable Until LLM Plateau, Market Reshapes
The frontier AI field seems pretty set, and it is unlikely to add new players until LLM-centric progress starts to plateau. If/when that happens the market will change a lot. On the LLM side, two unknowns: Can Meta re-enter the race?...
AI Productivity Gains Finally Appear in Macro Data
Alex has been tracking the evidence on whether AI is showing up in the productivity stats. Seems like that may have actually started.
Outdated IT Policies Still Block AI, Others Deploy Freely
It is amazing how many companies I talk to STILL have AI effectively blocked by IT & legal departments for out-of-date reasons when many companies in highly regulated industries have figured out ways to deploy enterprise ChatGPT, Claude & Gemini...
Dedicated AI Labs Drive Real Value in Large Enterprises
Kli is doing awesome work at Colgate-Palmolive & his results provide a really good example of the benefits of having a dedicated "AI Lab" inside of large companies run by a company veteran who actually gets what these sorts of...
AI Sparked No Major Corporate Shifts in 2025
As someone who has spent a lot of time with large companies talking about AI, I can say fairly confidently that no big organizational changes happened as a result of AI in 2025 I don’t think that tells us...
AI Shrinks Education Skill Gap by 75% on Tasks
New randomized experiment shows AI narrows skill gaps. We found this among talent levels at the same job, but this paper looks at education. They find that AI reduces the gap between more & less educated people on a business...
AI Adoption Slower Than Expected, Short‑Term Limits Overlooked
People on this site systematically overestimate the speed at which companies can deeply adopt AI & underestimate the impact of AI’s jagged abilities in limiting AI’s utility in the short run. Work will certainly start to change but companies have a...
AI Call Transcripts Are Everywhere—Establish Clear Usage Rules
At this point, in any call, it is likely someone is AI transcribing, whether they tell you (& whether that is legal or not). We really need clear norms & rules about how these transcripts can be used, since AI makes...
AI-Driven Redesign Lets Small Groups Shape Future Systems
Underestimated moment of agency/leverage is that many systems are being redesigned for AI & fluid for the first time in a long time (how do you hire? How does scientific publishing work?) That creates an opening for small groups to set...
AI Data Center Funding Proves Massive, Rapid Growth
There are reasons to argue about financial bubbles in the funding of data centers, but it is increasingly clear from the numbers that the frontier AI companies are showing that AI is, indeed, a very massive business with high demand...
Seedance 2.0 Crafts 15‑Second Narrative Arcs
The most interesting thing about Seedance 2.0 is that clips can be just long enough (15 seconds) to have something interesting happen, and the LLM behind it is good enough to actually make a little narrative arc, rather than cut...
AI Adoption Requires Leadership, Not Just Employee Compliance
A corporate position that workers should "just use AI to do stuff" has never been enough. AI use in companies is a leadership problem that involves answering fundamental questions about what people should do with their time, how work is...
