German Growth Outlook Slides to Sub‑1% This Year
Good Morning from Germany, where consensus growth forecasts, which had been remarkably slow to change, are now starting to drift lower. Growth of just 0.8% is now expected for this year, and 1.4% for 2027. Bank of America is the most pessimistic on this year, forecasting growth of just 0.3%, while Credit Agricole is the most pessimistic on next year, at 0.8%.
Germany Mulls €1bn Emergency Gas Reserve for Two‑Week Supply
Good Morning from Germany, which is weighing a strategic natural gas reserve to protect supplies in a worst-case crisis. The proposed emergency reserve would total ~24TWh, equal to ~10% of the country’s gas storage capacity. In the event of a...
Germany's Social Burden Swells, Memorial Day Delayed
Good Morning from #Germany where the social contribution burden keeps rising. A new study says the Social Contribution Memorial Day shifts to April 11 in 2026, 2 days later than a year earlier, mainly due to higher health and long-term...
German Industrial Output Drops 0.3% in February
Good Morning from Germany, where industrial production unexpectedly declined in Feb, even before the Iran war started, casting doubt on hopes for a rapid recovery. Output fell 0.3% MoM, dragged down mainly by construction and consumer goods. https://t.co/NXOwFKBgQ8 https://t.co/GcbQrapdzf
German 10y Yields Drop 15bps on Iran Ceasefire
German 10y (nominal) yields plunge 15bps (w/10y inflation expectations down 10bps) on Iran ceasefire. https://t.co/TN4TRdNdX1
German Factory Orders Flat, Recovery Still Elusive
Good Morning from Germany, where industry was showing little sign of recovery even before the war. Factory orders rose just 0.9% in Feb MoM, missing expectations. Excl volatile large orders, demand was up a stronger 3.5%. Still, a downward revision...
Oil Benchmark Hits Record, Reflecting Iran War Shortages
A key benchmark for physical oil has surged to its highest level on record, showing that global crude markets are increasingly pricing in supply shortages caused by the Iran war. https://t.co/OCII5LIP6Z https://t.co/V7iFSd47Gu
Germany’s Deficit Swells to €127bn, Driven by Social Spending
Good Morning from Germany, where the public deficit rose to €127bn in 2025, up from €104bn a year earlier. That is the highest level since the 2022 energy crisis. The biggest increases came at the federal and local government levels....
Blue Owl's Plunge Fuels Private Credit Crisis Fears
Is this a warning sign of a private credit crisis, or just market panic? Blue Owl Capital, often considered a poster child for the private credit boom, closed at a record low as worries grow about the health of the...
Germany’s Job Stats Mask Manufacturing Decline and Export Slump
Good Morning from #Germany, where the labor market looks healthier than it really is. Headline employment is holding up, but productive jobs in manufacturing are disappearing. Growth is coming in state-funded sectors, while the country’s export engine keeps losing ground....
Spain's VAT Cut Makes Its Gasoline Cheapest in Europe
Good Morning from Germany, which now ranks only in the middle of the pack in Europe when it comes to tax-free fuel. Gasoline is most expensive (excluding taxes) in Spain, which may be because Spain subsidizes gasoline by reducing the...
Germany’s Global GDP Share Slipping to 4% by 2030
Good Morning from Germany, a country whose influence on the world stage is fading. Its share of global GDP is expected to fall to 4% by 2030. https://t.co/Y1dVwTJYJC
Jobs Surge, Unemployment Dips Despite Weaker Household Data
US job growth bounced back in Mar, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, suggesting the labor market was holding up as the war w/Iran began. Employers added 178k jobs, easily beating forecasts of 60k. Still, the household survey painted a...
German Retail Sales Slip Again, VAT Debate Misplaced
Good Morning from Germany, where retail sales unexpectedly fell in February. Sales dropped 0.6% MoM, while analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 0.3% increase. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly decline. Notably, the weakness came even before the outbreak of...
NRW Inflation Hits 1.2% MoM, Highest Since 2022
Good Morning from #Germany, where #inflation is picking up again on the back of the oil and gas shock. In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), the country’s most populous state, CPI rose 1.2% MoM; the biggest increase since Sep 2022. Year-on-year, NRW...
Iran Poised to Spark 2026's Turning Point
2026 is starting to rhyme w/2025. Same painful start, same question hanging in the air: is there an "all clear" moment coming? Last time, Liberation Day flipped everything. This time, the trigger is Iran. (via GS) https://t.co/klOL5EI674
Iran War Erases $12 Trillion, Surpassing Three Major Economies
The Iran War has wiped $12 TRILLION from global markets; more than the entire economies of Germany, Japan, and the UK combined. https://t.co/lHkpoJl7xf
German Retail Deposits Top €3 Trillion, €13bn Added in February
Good Morning from Germany, where retail deposits have surpassed the €3TRILLION mark. In February alone, more than €13bn flowed into these accounts. https://t.co/cvLzWCwiTi
Iran Crisis Could Halve Germany's 2026 Growth, VAT Rise Debated
Good Morning from Germany, where officials are warning that the Iran crisis could cut 2026 growth in half. Internal estimates suggest expansion of just 0.5% in a worst-case scenario, and 0.6% to 0.7% even under less severe assumptions of persistently...
Trump Extends Iran Deadline Amid Nasdaq Correction
Trump delivers another mini-TACO: after Nasdaq slipped into correction territory, he blinked again. Post-close, he extended the Iran deadline to April 6, citing “very productive talks." https://t.co/styN1hZ50n
German Sentiment Slumps Amid Iran War, Stagflation Fears
Good Morning from Germany, where consumer sentiment is sliding as the Iran war fuels fears of stagflation. The GfK consumer sentiment index dropped by 3.2 points to -28.0, the weakest readings since 2024. Income expectations have fallen back into negative territory,...
VIX and Oil Dip, but Volatility Remains High
👉 Fear index Vix tumbles w/oil on Trump’s softer Iran tone. Reality check: both still elevated vs. pre-war. This isn’t calm – it’s just less panic. https://t.co/1L2wIolJnp
Germany's Real 10‑Year Yields Turn Positive After Decade
Good Morning from #Germany, where 10y govt bond yields have risen >3%, their highest level since 2011. The recent increase is driven disproportionately by higher long-term inflation expectations – meaning real 10y yields have fallen from 1.35% to 0.77%. The chart...
German Gas Prices Outpace US Even Before Taxes
Good Morning from Germany, where gasoline prices – even before taxes – are now higher than the avg price Americans pay at the pump, taxes included. https://t.co/PJk0TM53gN
ECB Holds Rate at 2% Amid War‑Driven Risks
#ECB leaves deposit rate at 2.00% as expected. Says war poses upside inflation risks, downside growth risks. Says to decide based on core inflation, transmission strength. Says not pre-committing to particular rate path. https://t.co/9tExdmlBDB
Germany's New Debt Fuels Handouts, Not Investment
Good Morning from Germany, where newly issued debt has so far not been used for investment, but rather to finance election giveaways & plug budget holes – once again proving the laws of political economy. Acc to Ifo, public borrowing...
German Investor Confidence Crashes Amid Iran War
Hello from Germany, where investor confidence plummets on the Iran war. An expectations index by the ZEW institute decreased to -0.5 in March from 58.3 in Feb. That’s below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, which had foreseen a reading...
Bitcoin Outshines Gold and Stocks Amid Conflict
Bitcoin & crypto markets have looked resilient in the face of the Middle East conflict, outperforming Gold and equity indices. "Maybe it takes a physical conflict to realise Bitcoin remains the most portable (cross border), digital and liquid asset w/no...
UniCredit's €35bn Hostile Bid Meets Commerzbank Resistance
Good Morning from #Germany, where UniCredit has launched a €35bn hostile takeover bid for Commerzbank, offering a premium of just 4% over Friday’s closing price, acc to BBG calculations. Commerzbank's management is likely to rebuff UniCredit's €30.8 per share offer,...
German Gasoline Outpaces Europe After Oil Shock
Good Morning from Germany, where petrol prices have reacted much more sharply to the oil shock than in the rest of Europe. Excluding taxes and duties, petrol currently costs about 94 cents per litre at the pump in Germany, compared...
Iran Conflict Jeopardizes $300 Bn Gulf AI Investment
Iran war imperils $300bn in Gulf AI spending. UAE and Saudi Arabia have been big investors in AI and major destinations for data centers. https://t.co/V7640CyKCt https://t.co/jK6wLnogDE
Germany's
Good Morning from Germany, which investors increasingly see as one of the losers of the current oil shock. Germany’s share of global mkt cap has fallen <1.95%, lowest level since early 2025. There is growing concern that persistently high energy...
Germany's 2026 Growth Slips, Inflation Rises Amid Stagflation
Good Morning from Germany, where economic forecasts are turning increasingly stagflationary amid the conflict in the Middle East. The Ifo Institute has lowered its growth forecast for Germany for 2026 from 1% to 0.8% and raised its inflation projection from...
Tankers Attacked, Brent Nears $100, Middle East Risk Spikes
Brent crude #oil is flirting dangerously close to the $100/bbl level once again after two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, underscoring the broader risks to energy assets across the Middle East and overshadowing a record oil release from the...
German 10‑Year Auction Falls Short, Yield Climbs to 2.89%
Good Morning from Germany, where today’s 10y govt bond auction technically failed. Of the €5bn on offer, investors submitted bids for only €4.5bn. In the end, just €3.8bn was placed, at a yield of 2.89%; noticeably higher than the 2.73%...
Germany's Surplus Grows as Domestic Demand Slumps
Good Morning from Germany, where the trade surplus widened to €21bn in January, up from €17.4bn the prev month; the highest level since the summer of 2024. However, this does not signal a revival of Germany’s export model. Exports fell by...
WTI Crude Hits Record Intraday Range Since Pre‑Lockdown
#Oil’s wildest day ever? Excluding the period when the world was in lockdown while Corona, yesterday marked the largest intraday trading range in history for front-month crude WTI. https://t.co/3P4EB6ZrZ3
Trump’s Iran War Comment Sends WTI Below $90
WTI crude oil fell below $90 per barrel after President Donald Trump told CBS that the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” Earlier in the day, WTI had surged to a peak of $119. https://t.co/ElHrOuNRmc
German Gas Prices Surge to €60/MWh, Sixfold US Cost
Good Morning from Germany, where spot gas prices have surged to above €60 per megawatt hour. That makes natural gas roughly 6 times more expensive here than in the US. https://t.co/4kxjaKHMGh
Berkshire Cash Dips, Profits Plunge 30%
Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile drops to $373.31bn in 4Q down from $381.7bn in the previous quarter following after a rather disappointing quarter. Operating profits fell nearly 30% in Warren Buffett’s last quarter as CEO, as insurance underwriting earnings slumped. That metric fell by...
AI Scare Triggers 6% Drop, Software Basket Down 33% YTD
Another day, another AI scare. A Citrini blog post titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” triggered another AI-driven selloff in US equities today. The Goldman Sachs Software At Risk Basket fell 6% today and is now down 33% year to...
Software Stocks Tumble as Claude Code Disrupts Cybersecurity
The software selloff continues, w/cybersecurity stocks particularly hard hit following the release of Anthropic’s Claude Code Security due to fears that this code-focused tool will change the industry. This indicates that there is nowhere to hide when it comes to...
US Q4 Growth Stalls at 1.4% Amid Shutdown
The US econ grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, weighed down by a record-long govt shutdown, weaker consumer spending, and softer trade. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4, down sharply from 4.4% in Q3....
US Stock Premium at Risk as Tech Capex Rises
Although global markets have narrowed the gap with the US in recent weeks, US equities still trade at a roughly 40% valuation premium to the rest of the world. That premium could shrink further if big tech companies lose their...
Amazon Ends Nine‑day Slide, Halts $450bn Loss
#Amazon snaps 9d losing streak during which it lost more than $450bn in value. https://t.co/0lGS8k6lrO https://t.co/TjEQVxihvT