Germany's
Good Morning from Germany, which investors increasingly see as one of the losers of the current oil shock. Germany’s share of global mkt cap has fallen <1.95%, lowest level since early 2025. There is growing concern that persistently high energy prices could derail fragile economic recovery.
Germany's 2026 Growth Slips, Inflation Rises Amid Stagflation
Good Morning from Germany, where economic forecasts are turning increasingly stagflationary amid the conflict in the Middle East. The Ifo Institute has lowered its growth forecast for Germany for 2026 from 1% to 0.8% and raised its inflation projection from...
Tankers Attacked, Brent Nears $100, Middle East Risk Spikes
Brent crude #oil is flirting dangerously close to the $100/bbl level once again after two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, underscoring the broader risks to energy assets across the Middle East and overshadowing a record oil release from the...
German 10‑Year Auction Falls Short, Yield Climbs to 2.89%
Good Morning from Germany, where today’s 10y govt bond auction technically failed. Of the €5bn on offer, investors submitted bids for only €4.5bn. In the end, just €3.8bn was placed, at a yield of 2.89%; noticeably higher than the 2.73%...
Germany's Surplus Grows as Domestic Demand Slumps
Good Morning from Germany, where the trade surplus widened to €21bn in January, up from €17.4bn the prev month; the highest level since the summer of 2024. However, this does not signal a revival of Germany’s export model. Exports fell by...
WTI Crude Hits Record Intraday Range Since Pre‑Lockdown
#Oil’s wildest day ever? Excluding the period when the world was in lockdown while Corona, yesterday marked the largest intraday trading range in history for front-month crude WTI. https://t.co/3P4EB6ZrZ3
Trump’s Iran War Comment Sends WTI Below $90
WTI crude oil fell below $90 per barrel after President Donald Trump told CBS that the Iran war is “very complete, pretty much.” Earlier in the day, WTI had surged to a peak of $119. https://t.co/ElHrOuNRmc
German Gas Prices Surge to €60/MWh, Sixfold US Cost
Good Morning from Germany, where spot gas prices have surged to above €60 per megawatt hour. That makes natural gas roughly 6 times more expensive here than in the US. https://t.co/4kxjaKHMGh
Berkshire Cash Dips, Profits Plunge 30%
Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile drops to $373.31bn in 4Q down from $381.7bn in the previous quarter following after a rather disappointing quarter. Operating profits fell nearly 30% in Warren Buffett’s last quarter as CEO, as insurance underwriting earnings slumped. That metric fell by...
AI Scare Triggers 6% Drop, Software Basket Down 33% YTD
Another day, another AI scare. A Citrini blog post titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” triggered another AI-driven selloff in US equities today. The Goldman Sachs Software At Risk Basket fell 6% today and is now down 33% year to...
Software Stocks Tumble as Claude Code Disrupts Cybersecurity
The software selloff continues, w/cybersecurity stocks particularly hard hit following the release of Anthropic’s Claude Code Security due to fears that this code-focused tool will change the industry. This indicates that there is nowhere to hide when it comes to...
US Q4 Growth Stalls at 1.4% Amid Shutdown
The US econ grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, weighed down by a record-long govt shutdown, weaker consumer spending, and softer trade. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4, down sharply from 4.4% in Q3....
US Stock Premium at Risk as Tech Capex Rises
Although global markets have narrowed the gap with the US in recent weeks, US equities still trade at a roughly 40% valuation premium to the rest of the world. That premium could shrink further if big tech companies lose their...
Amazon Ends Nine‑day Slide, Halts $450bn Loss
#Amazon snaps 9d losing streak during which it lost more than $450bn in value. https://t.co/0lGS8k6lrO https://t.co/TjEQVxihvT