Ian Bremmer
Founder & President, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; leading voice on geopolitics/geoeconomics shaping global markets and trade.
Iran Sees Ceasefire Extension as Strategic Advantage
iran continues to believe they have the upper hand in negotiations…and that extending the “ceasefire” benefits them, not the americans.
Iran Conflict Triggers Recession, Accelerates Renewable Shift
principal near term impact of ongoing iran war: global recession. bad for everyone. principal long term impact of ongoing iran war: end of opec, faster move away from oil & gas towards post-carbon renewables. good for everyone, especially china.
Services, Not Manufacturing, Drive Mass Income Growth
despite what your local politicians tell you, the path to higher income for large populations is the services sector, not manufacturing. v useful dataviz on the long term labor market
US Deploys Destroyers, Iran Hits Back—Strategic Showdown
us announces “project freedom" and sends destroyers into the strait. iran responds with missiles and drones. that’s not a misunderstanding, that’s strategy. @gzeromedia
Project Freedom Shifted From Shipping Lanes to Mine Mapping
trump's ‘project freedom’ meant reopening shipping lanes. what it became: mapping mines, avoiding escalation, and asking others to help. @gzeromedia
Trump's Grudge, Not Strategy, Drives Troop Pullout
any strategic purpose of withdrawing 5,000 us troops from germany? no. trump feeling personally insulted by the german chancellor is the policy priority.
State Ownership Now Dominates Global Oil Reserves
during the 1973 oil crisis, private companies controlled 85% of global proven reserves. today, state owned enterprises control 75%. (and that number would be 90% if it wasn’t for the shale boom)
Iran War Marks Trump’s First Major Economic Downturn
the iran war is the first time of trump’s presidency—in either term—that he is responsible for a major economic downturn. i don’t see any capacity (and, for now, even any intent) to turn this around before midterm elections in november.
UAE's OPEC Exit Signals Broader Regional Power Struggle
uae is withdrawing from opec. what looks like energy politics is something deeper. a fight over the region’s future. @gzeromedia.com
UAE Exits OPEC, Abu Dhabi Takes Lead Amid Dubai Uncertainty
united arab emirates leaves opec. abu dhabi asserting itself now that dubai safe haven status is in doubt.
Xi Prioritizes Blockade Issue at Trump Summit
if blockade is still in place, don’t see how it’s not issue number one for xi in his summit with trump.
Trump's Unilateral Iran Deal Withdrawal Lacked Strategic Planning
starting to think president trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the iranian nuclear deal wasn’t well thought through.
Iran Refuses Talks Until US Lifts Blockade, Heads to Islamabad
iran said absolutely no talks unless the united states ends blockade. blockade still in place. iranian delegation en route to islamabad.
When Tech Titans Outpace Nations: A New Global Power
what happens when tech companies become more powerful than countries? imagine a supercharged east india company, shifting global fortunes, and military influence... a little forecasting with @trevornoah for @whatnowpodcast
Iran Keeps Exporting One Million Barrels Daily Despite Blockade
despite the us blockade, iran remains on track to export about one million barrels of oil per day in april. half of what they exported in march. but still a lot of money.