Ian Bremmer
Founder & President, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; leading voice on geopolitics/geoeconomics shaping global markets and trade.
Ceasefire Indefinite as Trump Nears War Exit
talks suspended, ceasefire now indefinite. trump edging closer to getting out of the war irrespective of outcomes in the region.
Vance Delay Extends Ceasefire Talks, Pressures Trump
more delays on vp vance traveling to islamabad. but negotiations on core issues still proceeding, just pushes trump on extending out (or not breaching) ceasefire.
Tiny Triggers Can Jeopardize $110 Trillion Economy
turns out it doesn’t take much to hold a $110 trillion global economy at risk.
Iran Ceasefire Holds; Deal Likely, Implementation Uncertain
iran ceasefire holding. for now. talks coming. deal announcement looking reasonably likely. implementation? that's a different matter. @gzeromedia
Iran Drops Lebanon Ceasefire Precondition, Softens Stance
during the first round of talks, iran said lebanon ceasefire was precondition…and then quietly dropped that red line. i wouldn’t read that much into iranian demands on the united states lifting blockade or else no talks...
Iranian Hardliners See Reason to Extend Ceasefire, Not Implement Agreement
the iranian government—the hardliners included—have every reason to engage in talks with the united states that extends the ceasefire. implementing an agreement is another matter.
US‑Iran Deal Nears: Stockpile Trade, 5‑Year
the outlines of a us-iran deal are taking shape/getting closer. the us wants iran's enriched uranium stockpile and a 20-year moratorium on enrichment. iran is offering stockpile plus 5 years, wants $20 billion in frozen funds released plus sanctions relief.
Global Energy Crisis Hits Developing Nations Hardest, Europe Barely Notices
iea: this is the largest energy crisis we have ever faced. europe: ~6 weeks of jet fuel. flight cancellations coming. developing countries in asia, africa, latin america: already hit harder, heard less.
U.S. Defense Spending Set to Surge Beyond $
$2t → $2.7t in 6 years. and that's before the iran war, before europe's (and asia's) defense spending push, before the $90b ukraine loan. the chart from 2026 is going to look even steeper.
S&P 500 Rebounds, Ignoring War, Oil, Inflation
the s&p 500 has fully recovered to pre-iran war levels. the strait of hormuz is still effectively closed, disrupting global supply chains. oil is still near $100. inflation just hit a three-year high. the market has decided none of that...
IMF Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Fifth Global Recession
the imf's worst case scenario for the iran war: oil at $110 this year, $125 next year. inflation hitting 6%. global growth falling below 2%. that would be a global recession — the fifth since 1980.
Ukrainian Drones Outpace Russian Replacement, Eroding Manpower Edge
russia taking increased casualties over recent months because of ukrainian drones…now greater than russia’s troop replacement rate. plus ukraine recently captured a russian position using exclusively drones and unmanned ground vehicles—no soldiers. russia’s manpower advantage is now weaker than it has...
Trump’s Withdrawals Gave Iran Nuclear Leverage, Now Trapped
the reason iran has a stockpile of highly enriched uranium…is because trump unilaterally pulled out of jcpoa. the reason iran has leverage over the strait…is because trump decided to on a regime change war with iran. trump now trying to...
Hungary Ousts Orbán, Rejecting Corruption and Stagnation
orbán out after 16 years. not about left vs right. voters rejected corruption and stagnation. a very important signal for europe and for trump’s allies. @gzeromedia
All‑out Regime‑change War on Iran Is Reckless
iran’s nuclear & ballistic missile programs were a real threat. more to israel and the gulf states than than to the united states, but real nonetheless. responding to that threat with an all out regime change war is one of...