Ian Bremmer
Founder & President, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; leading voice on geopolitics/geoeconomics shaping global markets and trade.
Only 12% View US as Ally, 36% See Threat
only 12% of europeans polled across six countries see the united states as a close ally. 36% see it as a threat.
Only Seven Ships Cross Strait Post‑Ceasefire, Mostly Bulk Car
only seven vessels have passed through the strait since the ceasefire went into effect on tuesday. six of them bulk cargo carriers, the other apparently a chinese-owned tanker.
Iran-Israel Ceasefire Uncertain, US Deal at Risk
hard to see the iran-israel component of a ceasefire holding. whether that breaks the broader us-iran agreement is an open question.
Trump Blames Greenland for NATO Breakup
the unnecessary origin story of trump's nato breakup, in his own words: "it all began with greenland."
Trump Threatens Iran: Open Strait or Face Larger Strikes
trump’s latest message to iran: open the strait or face even bigger strikes. iran isn’t negotiating with the us. but it is talking to everyone else. @gzeromedia
Trump's 2027 Budget Prioritizes Defense, Cuts Social Programs
trump's proposed 2027 budget. defense up $440.9 billion. most everything else — health, housing, education, labor, agriculture — cut.
Singapore Fuel Prices Surge, Threatening Shipping Operations
singapore shipping fuel market going off the chart—this is shipping fuel shortage live. at that price, shippers will defer orders, park their ships and either wait till the war is over or go out of business.
U.S. Already Neutralized Iran—Why Prolong Conflict?
if the united states has 1) already destroyed iran’s military capabilities 2) has the ability to hit iran at any point if they try to gain access to their enriched uranium and 3) isn’t interested in (or has already achieved) regime...
Trump Claims Iran War's Sole Aim: Halt Nuclear Program
trump now says only one goal in iran war: to ensure they don’t develop nuclear weapon upside: new war goal achieved downside: pretty much everything else
China Takes Direct Role in Hormuz Security After Iran War
china involving itself directly in the business of hormuz strait security is an important unintended consequence of the iran war.
China‑Pakistan Peace Plan Aims to End Iran War
china and pakistan release five point peace plan for ending iran war. no mention of us and israel call to restore full passage of strait of hormuz (no iran ability to disrupt/charge tolls). initiative should be welcomed by pretty much everybody.
Trump's Biggest Move: Iran War, No Strategy Disclosed
the most consequential decision of trump’s presidency. war with iran. troops deploying. and the president still hasn't explained the strategy. @gzeromedia
Putin Thrives as U.S. Pivots Away From Russia’s Sanctions.
a surprisingly good month for putin. russia making bank on oil, gas. fertilizer. us sanctions suspended. us weapons now prioritized for iran war. russia supporting iran without consequence. and a russian tanker with oil now allowed through to cuba by...
Ground Forces Needed as Trump’s Air Plan Fails
trump can’t reopen the strait of hormuz with an air campaign. and the iranians aren’t going to accept that outcome willingly. ground troops are coming.
G7 Confronts War, Iran, Hormuz—And US Accountability
g7 foreign ministers meeting in france today. on the agenda: stop the war, end iran's nuclear program, reopen the strait of hormuz. also on the agenda, implicitly: explain to allies why the us launched this war without telling them and ask...
Iran Ships 1.5M Barrels Daily, Prices Surge
four weeks in, iran continues to export oil through the strait of hormuz. 1.5 million barrels a day, at significantly higher prices than before the war.
Trump’s Negotiation Talk Masks Oil and Troop Moves
if you’re iran right now, you hear lots of president trump talking about negotiations. while you see him 1) trying his hardest to talk down oil prices, 2) getting ground troops in place for phase two of operations.
Insider Trade Exploits Trump’s Iran Pause Announcement
6:49am: sudden spike in oil futures trading. no news. no announcement. nothing public. 7:05am: trump announces a pause on iran strikes. markets move. someone knew. 16 minutes early. $580 million in contracts. the corruption is staggering.
Bipartisan Bill Seeks to Ban Officials From Prediction Market Trading
bipartisan legislation introduced to ban members of congress, the president, and senior executive branch officials from trading prediction markets. the right move and long overdue. we already banned it at eurasia group.
Trump's Iran Strategy: Seize Oil Infrastructure, Risk Escalation
trump wants a win in iran. one option? take the oil infrastructure and hold it. that would be a massive escalation. @gzeromedia
Trump Retreats From Iran Deadline, Averting Disaster
president trump has backed away from his self-imposed 48 hour deadline on iran. this is to be welcomed. if trump had followed through it would have been a disaster for all sides. as of now, nothing else has changed.
Trump Claims Iran War Nearing End, $200B Aid Unnecessary
trump: very close to winding down war in iran. presumedly $200 billion supplemental no longer necessary.
Iran Could Outproduce Its Own Drone Attacks Daily
if iran retains one-third of its reported 10,000 per month production it would produce more drones per day than it is currently firing.
No Viable Short‑term Plan to Open Strait without Troops
i’ve yet to hear a workable near term (next 4-6 weeks) plan for how to open the strait that doesn’t involve us boots on the ground.
Trump Likely to Block Russia's Oil Shipments to Cuba
russia sending two shipments of oil. and gas to…cuba. will president trump order interdiction? i’d say pretty good chance he will.
Diplomatic Visit to Xi Delayed by Gulf Troop Deployment
can’t travel to beijing to meet with xi if it’s right after troops arrive in the persian gulf for a ground incursion.
Europe Rejects Trump's Unconsulted War on Iran
europe wants nothing to do with president trump’s war on iran. they don’t understand the aims, see the costs as extraordinary and weren’t asked about it before the missiles started flying.
Americans Reject Ground Troops in Any Iran War
americans do not want—and did not vote for—boots on the ground in a war with iran.
US Marines Deploy to Iran; Conflict and Economic Turmoil Persist
two weeks before us marine expeditionary force—some 2,500 marines—now being deployed to iran arrives in the mideast. this war (and global economic disruption) isn’t over soon.
Supply Shocks and Politics Won’t Push Oil Prices Down
exploding tankers, the us releasing 40% of its remaining oil reserve, and trump bragging about how well things are going: not indications for low oil prices.
Trump's Quick End Threatened by Hormuz Oil Leverage
trump may want to end the iran war quickly. but closing the strait of hormuz or even threatening it keeps oil high and the conflict alive. @gzeromedia
France Deploys Warships, Europe Stays Engaged Amid Oil Surge
france sending warships to the med/red sea and potentially toward hormuz — framing it as “strictly defensive” and about freedom of navigation. message: europe won’t be (completely) sidelined as us–israel–iran escalation hits shipping lanes and pushes oil toward $100+.
War's Oil Surge Mirrors $50 Carbon Tax Estimate
fun fact: at $90/barrel, the impact of the war is equivalent to a ~$50/ton carbon tax, right where the biden administration estimated the social cost of carbon
Putin Benefits as Russia Aids Iran, US Relaxes Sanctions
russia providing iran with targeting assistance against the us military. us reducing sanctions on russian oil export. quite the both/and for putin.
Trump Reshuffles Noem, Avoids Disgruntled Ex‑officials
secy of homeland security kristi noem sacked but given a new post (a la mike waltz). learning from his first term, president trump really doesn’t want jilted formers causing trouble.
Trump Abandons Iran Regime Change, Hints at Oil Focus
trump has backed away from regime change in iran. so what’s the strategy? if not tehran, then maybe the oil. @gzeromedia
Congress Debates Trump’s Iran War Powers, Unlikely to Act
congress debating trump’s iran war powers… after strikes already underway. as with previous administrations, odds congress actually takes responsibility for war powers are slim.
Why the US‑Israel Strike on Iran Matters Now
the us and israel attacked iran. why now and what comes next? i break down the decision, the risks of escalation, and what to watch. with @ted
North Korea's Nuclear Push Shows Strategic Resilience
north korea looking a lot smarter for developing nuclear weapons despite all the international opposition and pressure.
U.S.-Israel Dominance Reshapes Middle East Power Balance
american and israel military escalation dominance is the most important geopolitical story in the middle east post-october 7. no ability of iran or its proxies to counter strikes against them. and nobody willing or capable to support them outside the...
OpenAI Partners Pentagon on Guarded Classified AI Model
sam altman says openai is working with the pentagon to find a classified-use model that keeps safety guardrails — a de-escalation pitch following anthropic’s standoff over battlefield applications.
Multiple Crises, Stalled Talks, White House Impatience Signal Change
two conflicts. two stalled negotiations. one impatient white house. the next few weeks could look very different from today. @gzeromedia
Voters Reject Iran War; Trump Should Rethink
us voters did not sign up for a large scale military campaign in iran. venezuela was popular because no americans were hurt and military operations were over almost before they started. president trump should think carefully before he gives the...
Trump Must Accept Limited Iran Deal to Avert Strikes
two rounds of iran talks, very little progress so far. unless trump is prepared to accept a limited deal (focused on nuclear capacity, not missiles or support for regional proxies), military strikes in coming weeks looking likely.
NATO Remains Vital Amid Transatlantic Trust Crisis
for all the criticism and hand wringing, nato continues to serve a useful role for all members and nobody is trying to leave it or replace it. there’s a crisis of trust in the transatlantic relationship. but not an existential...