Ian Bremmer
Founder & President, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; leading voice on geopolitics/geoeconomics shaping global markets and trade.
China Advances Tech, Economy Hesitates, Military Stalls
our first ask ian live. a caller asked if china is shifting from second gear to third. technologically, yes. economically, maybe. militarily, not so much. xi still playing the long game. @gzeromedia
Trump Unwilling to Resume Military Strikes on Iran
key takeaway here (which is equally clear to the iranians): president trump really doesn’t want to return to military strikes against iran.
Gulf States' Disunity Over Iran War Explained
the gulf states have been far from unified in their response to the iran war. here’s one big reason:
Ceasefire Indefinite as Trump Nears War Exit
talks suspended, ceasefire now indefinite. trump edging closer to getting out of the war irrespective of outcomes in the region.
Vance Delay Extends Ceasefire Talks, Pressures Trump
more delays on vp vance traveling to islamabad. but negotiations on core issues still proceeding, just pushes trump on extending out (or not breaching) ceasefire.
Tiny Triggers Can Jeopardize $110 Trillion Economy
turns out it doesn’t take much to hold a $110 trillion global economy at risk.
Iran Ceasefire Holds; Deal Likely, Implementation Uncertain
iran ceasefire holding. for now. talks coming. deal announcement looking reasonably likely. implementation? that's a different matter. @gzeromedia
Iran Drops Lebanon Ceasefire Precondition, Softens Stance
during the first round of talks, iran said lebanon ceasefire was precondition…and then quietly dropped that red line. i wouldn’t read that much into iranian demands on the united states lifting blockade or else no talks...
Iranian Hardliners See Reason to Extend Ceasefire, Not Implement Agreement
the iranian government—the hardliners included—have every reason to engage in talks with the united states that extends the ceasefire. implementing an agreement is another matter.
US‑Iran Deal Nears: Stockpile Trade, 5‑Year
the outlines of a us-iran deal are taking shape/getting closer. the us wants iran's enriched uranium stockpile and a 20-year moratorium on enrichment. iran is offering stockpile plus 5 years, wants $20 billion in frozen funds released plus sanctions relief.
Global Energy Crisis Hits Developing Nations Hardest, Europe Barely Notices
iea: this is the largest energy crisis we have ever faced. europe: ~6 weeks of jet fuel. flight cancellations coming. developing countries in asia, africa, latin america: already hit harder, heard less.
U.S. Defense Spending Set to Surge Beyond $
$2t → $2.7t in 6 years. and that's before the iran war, before europe's (and asia's) defense spending push, before the $90b ukraine loan. the chart from 2026 is going to look even steeper.
S&P 500 Rebounds, Ignoring War, Oil, Inflation
the s&p 500 has fully recovered to pre-iran war levels. the strait of hormuz is still effectively closed, disrupting global supply chains. oil is still near $100. inflation just hit a three-year high. the market has decided none of that...
IMF Warns Iran Conflict Could Spark Fifth Global Recession
the imf's worst case scenario for the iran war: oil at $110 this year, $125 next year. inflation hitting 6%. global growth falling below 2%. that would be a global recession — the fifth since 1980.
Ukrainian Drones Outpace Russian Replacement, Eroding Manpower Edge
russia taking increased casualties over recent months because of ukrainian drones…now greater than russia’s troop replacement rate. plus ukraine recently captured a russian position using exclusively drones and unmanned ground vehicles—no soldiers. russia’s manpower advantage is now weaker than it has...
Trump’s Withdrawals Gave Iran Nuclear Leverage, Now Trapped
the reason iran has a stockpile of highly enriched uranium…is because trump unilaterally pulled out of jcpoa. the reason iran has leverage over the strait…is because trump decided to on a regime change war with iran. trump now trying to...
Hungary Ousts Orbán, Rejecting Corruption and Stagnation
orbán out after 16 years. not about left vs right. voters rejected corruption and stagnation. a very important signal for europe and for trump’s allies. @gzeromedia
All‑out Regime‑change War on Iran Is Reckless
iran’s nuclear & ballistic missile programs were a real threat. more to israel and the gulf states than than to the united states, but real nonetheless. responding to that threat with an all out regime change war is one of...
Only 12% View US as Ally, 36% See Threat
only 12% of europeans polled across six countries see the united states as a close ally. 36% see it as a threat.
Only Seven Ships Cross Strait Post‑Ceasefire, Mostly Bulk Car
only seven vessels have passed through the strait since the ceasefire went into effect on tuesday. six of them bulk cargo carriers, the other apparently a chinese-owned tanker.
Iran-Israel Ceasefire Uncertain, US Deal at Risk
hard to see the iran-israel component of a ceasefire holding. whether that breaks the broader us-iran agreement is an open question.
Trump Blames Greenland for NATO Breakup
the unnecessary origin story of trump's nato breakup, in his own words: "it all began with greenland."
Trump Threatens Iran: Open Strait or Face Larger Strikes
trump’s latest message to iran: open the strait or face even bigger strikes. iran isn’t negotiating with the us. but it is talking to everyone else. @gzeromedia
Trump's 2027 Budget Prioritizes Defense, Cuts Social Programs
trump's proposed 2027 budget. defense up $440.9 billion. most everything else — health, housing, education, labor, agriculture — cut.
Singapore Fuel Prices Surge, Threatening Shipping Operations
singapore shipping fuel market going off the chart—this is shipping fuel shortage live. at that price, shippers will defer orders, park their ships and either wait till the war is over or go out of business.
U.S. Already Neutralized Iran—Why Prolong Conflict?
if the united states has 1) already destroyed iran’s military capabilities 2) has the ability to hit iran at any point if they try to gain access to their enriched uranium and 3) isn’t interested in (or has already achieved) regime...
Trump Claims Iran War's Sole Aim: Halt Nuclear Program
trump now says only one goal in iran war: to ensure they don’t develop nuclear weapon upside: new war goal achieved downside: pretty much everything else
China Takes Direct Role in Hormuz Security After Iran War
china involving itself directly in the business of hormuz strait security is an important unintended consequence of the iran war.
China‑Pakistan Peace Plan Aims to End Iran War
china and pakistan release five point peace plan for ending iran war. no mention of us and israel call to restore full passage of strait of hormuz (no iran ability to disrupt/charge tolls). initiative should be welcomed by pretty much everybody.
Trump's Biggest Move: Iran War, No Strategy Disclosed
the most consequential decision of trump’s presidency. war with iran. troops deploying. and the president still hasn't explained the strategy. @gzeromedia
Putin Thrives as U.S. Pivots Away From Russia’s Sanctions.
a surprisingly good month for putin. russia making bank on oil, gas. fertilizer. us sanctions suspended. us weapons now prioritized for iran war. russia supporting iran without consequence. and a russian tanker with oil now allowed through to cuba by...
Ground Forces Needed as Trump’s Air Plan Fails
trump can’t reopen the strait of hormuz with an air campaign. and the iranians aren’t going to accept that outcome willingly. ground troops are coming.
G7 Confronts War, Iran, Hormuz—And US Accountability
g7 foreign ministers meeting in france today. on the agenda: stop the war, end iran's nuclear program, reopen the strait of hormuz. also on the agenda, implicitly: explain to allies why the us launched this war without telling them and ask...
Iran Ships 1.5M Barrels Daily, Prices Surge
four weeks in, iran continues to export oil through the strait of hormuz. 1.5 million barrels a day, at significantly higher prices than before the war.
Trump’s Negotiation Talk Masks Oil and Troop Moves
if you’re iran right now, you hear lots of president trump talking about negotiations. while you see him 1) trying his hardest to talk down oil prices, 2) getting ground troops in place for phase two of operations.
Insider Trade Exploits Trump’s Iran Pause Announcement
6:49am: sudden spike in oil futures trading. no news. no announcement. nothing public. 7:05am: trump announces a pause on iran strikes. markets move. someone knew. 16 minutes early. $580 million in contracts. the corruption is staggering.
Bipartisan Bill Seeks to Ban Officials From Prediction Market Trading
bipartisan legislation introduced to ban members of congress, the president, and senior executive branch officials from trading prediction markets. the right move and long overdue. we already banned it at eurasia group.
Trump's Iran Strategy: Seize Oil Infrastructure, Risk Escalation
trump wants a win in iran. one option? take the oil infrastructure and hold it. that would be a massive escalation. @gzeromedia
Trump Retreats From Iran Deadline, Averting Disaster
president trump has backed away from his self-imposed 48 hour deadline on iran. this is to be welcomed. if trump had followed through it would have been a disaster for all sides. as of now, nothing else has changed.
Trump Claims Iran War Nearing End, $200B Aid Unnecessary
trump: very close to winding down war in iran. presumedly $200 billion supplemental no longer necessary.
Iran Could Outproduce Its Own Drone Attacks Daily
if iran retains one-third of its reported 10,000 per month production it would produce more drones per day than it is currently firing.
No Viable Short‑term Plan to Open Strait without Troops
i’ve yet to hear a workable near term (next 4-6 weeks) plan for how to open the strait that doesn’t involve us boots on the ground.
Trump Likely to Block Russia's Oil Shipments to Cuba
russia sending two shipments of oil. and gas to…cuba. will president trump order interdiction? i’d say pretty good chance he will.
Diplomatic Visit to Xi Delayed by Gulf Troop Deployment
can’t travel to beijing to meet with xi if it’s right after troops arrive in the persian gulf for a ground incursion.
Europe Rejects Trump's Unconsulted War on Iran
europe wants nothing to do with president trump’s war on iran. they don’t understand the aims, see the costs as extraordinary and weren’t asked about it before the missiles started flying.
Americans Reject Ground Troops in Any Iran War
americans do not want—and did not vote for—boots on the ground in a war with iran.
US Marines Deploy to Iran; Conflict and Economic Turmoil Persist
two weeks before us marine expeditionary force—some 2,500 marines—now being deployed to iran arrives in the mideast. this war (and global economic disruption) isn’t over soon.
Supply Shocks and Politics Won’t Push Oil Prices Down
exploding tankers, the us releasing 40% of its remaining oil reserve, and trump bragging about how well things are going: not indications for low oil prices.
Trump's Quick End Threatened by Hormuz Oil Leverage
trump may want to end the iran war quickly. but closing the strait of hormuz or even threatening it keeps oil high and the conflict alive. @gzeromedia
France Deploys Warships, Europe Stays Engaged Amid Oil Surge
france sending warships to the med/red sea and potentially toward hormuz — framing it as “strictly defensive” and about freedom of navigation. message: europe won’t be (completely) sidelined as us–israel–iran escalation hits shipping lanes and pushes oil toward $100+.