Wall Street's Oil Bullishness Faded; Expect Price Plunge
The repost details the Wall Street consensus that the Strait is days away from reopening, and this will lead to crude prices plummeting. Add this chart. It shows that most of the net long positions among managed money (CTAs) and Large Speculators were established BEFORE the war began (and made good money), and they have been paring it back since the opening days of the war (prices are higher today). Restated, Wall Street's peak oil bullishness was over two months ago, and they have been pulling back every week. Industry professionals (i.e., Commercial Traders) are on the other side of Wall Street. Which side do you want to be on? @CommodMkt
Cleveland Fed Predicts May CPI Rise to 4.2%
April y/y CPI was 3.8% The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast has May y/y CPI jumping to 4.2%.
10-Year Treasury Yield Near Record High, Treasury Says Focus
Reminder “The president wants lower rates… He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury and what is the yield of that.” — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, 2/5/25. The 10-year yield at 4.60% is just 2 bps from the highest yield since...
30-Year Yield Hits Bush-Era
The last time the 30-year yield traded at this level, George W Bush was President. Let's see if it closes at this level (5 PM ET). https://t.co/WKu0a9lHZB
Fed Signals Cuts, Market Expects 2027 Hike—New Chair Faces Mismatch
The blue line is what the Fed is communicating. 2 rate cuts this year. The orange line is what the market is pricing in, a rate HIKE by Summer 2027. Warsh starts as Fed Chairman on Friday. High on his agenda...
Yield vs Oil: Diverging Trends on 3-Day Tick Chart
3-day tick chart ... * White (right scale), U.S. 10-year yield * Blue (left scale), June WTI Crude Oil Futures What is the difference? https://t.co/nwUGdEL9j4
Iran's Blockade Over Humanitarian
Please explain to me like I’m 5 or a golden retriever why stopping the humanitarian effort to get ships out but keep the blockade going is what Iran wants and we happily agree to?
Iran's AIS Jamming Disrupts Shipping, Causes Signal Gaps
Iran is jamming the AIS (or GPS) signals of shipping. Notice what happens to it below, and how they jump around and then disappear.
War Stalemate Threatens Global Energy and Fertilizer Supplies
Signaling no restart to the war? No War No Peace No Shipping No Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, or Helium.
UK 30‑Year Yield Peaks at 5.76%, Highest Since 1998
*UK 30-YEAR YIELD CLIMBS TO 5.76%, HIGHEST SINCE 1998 -- On September 27, 2022, the 30-year UK hit 4.99%. This was so intolerable that UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was forced to resign. Today, the UK's 30-year yield is 77 bps higher. https://t.co/NotUU2B1Gv
Oil Drives Bond Volatility, Raising Yields
Oil's impact on the bond market I would argue that oil (blue) is driving bond volatility (orange), not the other way around. That means wider daily ranges and, given the current environment, higher yields (>volatility = higher yields). https://t.co/oUEp8B4rEQ
Oil Futures Hit New Highs, Expect $90+ Prices
What does the oil market think? Both the July (orange) and December (blue) Brent Crude Oil Futures Contracts are at new highs. The December contract is now signaling that the market expects crude oil to be above $90 for the next seven...
Brent Oil Volatility Spikes with Every War Headline
July Brent Crude Oil gyrations over the last 24 hours on every War headline. https://t.co/NguXR9zWen
Iranian Ex‑CEO Threatens Carriers, Trump’s Optimism Looks Misplaced
This is from the Former head (CEO) of Fars News Agency (a major state-aligned, hardline Iranian news outlet often linked to the IRGC) He says they will sink American Aircraft Carriers that approach the Strait of Hormuz. No, I do not worry...
Trump’s Non‑announcement Leaves Markets Unmoved, White House Stuck
Apparently, Trump did NOT announce the Navy will start escorting ships through the Strait tomorrow (even though that is what he posted two hours ago). This might explain why markets are hardly moving on this news ... he effectively announced nothing...