Iran War Stalemate Fuels Oil Price Gamble
The bottom line is the Iran War is "stuck." No War (shooting) No Peace No Shipping No Crude Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, and/or Helium And it will stay "stuck" until circumstances change. The most likely change ... * The US/Israel restart kinetic attacks with the goal of forcing the Iranians to their position * The Iranians hold the stalemate long enough to drive up crude oil prices to intolerable levels for the developed world to get the US/Israelis to accept their positions. I guess a third option is that the blockade imposes unbearable economic pain on the Iranians to force them to accept the US positions. I say "guess" because the thinking now is this might take a long time, which plays into the Iranian point above about holding the stalemate to drive up crude oil prices to intolerable levels. As we are starting to understand, the Iranian regime has a high tolerance for economic pain, and the larger population cannot overthrow them. So, the maximum pain point, the so-called "tank top" of their crude oil storage facilities getting full, might be several weeks away.
Americans Spend War Money on Driving, Matching Military
The US Military estimates it has spent $25B prosecuting the war since February 28 … American motorist have spent almost the same.
Low Savings Rate Signals Confidence, Not Financial Discipline
The saving rate is income minus disposable spending. It does NOT include investment performance (such as stock or housing prices rising). So, I view the saving rate as a sentiment indicator. It is low because households don't need to hold...
Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since 1969
*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 189,000 IN APRIL 25 WEEK; EST. 212K This is the lowest reading since September 1969! (Note: this week is subject to revisions) https://t.co/E7TDSpivny
White House Blocks Anthropic’s Wider Mythos Rollout
They are treating Mythos like a doomsday machine. Bear in mind that every lab will have a similar model in a few months, including the Chinese. *ANTHROPIC PROPOSED LETTING 70 ADDITIONAL COS USE MYTHOS: WSJ *WHITE HOUSE OPPOSES ANTHROPIC PLAN TO EXPAND MYTHOS...
Oil Surges to Wartime Highs as US Eyes Iran
Screaming Red Headline on Bloomberg *OIL HITS WARTIME HIGH ON REPORT US EYING IRAN MILITARY OPTIONS June Brent futures (green) have doubled since the beginning of the year December Brent Futures (blue) set a new all-time high. https://t.co/MdXjetPtqJ
30‑Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5%, Near 18‑Year
*US 30-YEAR YIELD TOUCHES 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2025 Now just 11 bps from a new 18-year high. https://t.co/Aow1azOUWb
Explaining Powell Critique Live with Jack Farley, Max Wiethe
I will be on with @JackFarley96 and @maxwiethe in about 15 minutes. And for those torching me on my Powell takes, I will explain further. (For everyone else, Powell is making a terrible mistake by staying.)
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Vanished After War Began
A reminder ... This is what Strait of Hormuz traffic looked like the day before the war started (February 27). Now compare it to the repost below. @mercoglianos @johnkonrad https://t.co/IS4MCRm6PB
War Drives Brent Futures to New 2026 High
What is the long-term impact of this war? A good measure might be to look at deferred futures contracts. The blue line is the December 2026 Brent Crude Oil Futures contract. It made a new high today, holding its uptrend, and up...
War’s Shift Turns Defense Stocks Negative
I wrote the repost about the changing nature of war. This chart is unusual ... war is now bad for defense stocks? Maybe the stock market also sees that the defense procurement business model has to change, and that legacy defense contractors...
Iran Could Weaponize Oil Spill to Break US Blockade
Note that the US response to Ghalibaf's threats below is that Iran is three days away from "tank top," as Trump said this morning on Fox News. This means they are running out of oil storage (because they cannot ship due...
Ships Use Territorial Waters to Bypass US Blockade
How can dozens of ships defeat the US Blockade, as the FT repost below says is happening? The map shows how a tanker can travel from Kharg Island to Mumbai while remaining within the territorial waters of Pakistan and India. The US...
Blockade Persists: No War, No Peace, No Shipments
Trump: I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted. - So: No war No peace No ships No oil, LNG, fertilizer, or...
Fed's Shift: From Late Powell to Sock Puppet Warsh
It seems like the Fed is going from “Too Late” Powell to “Sock Puppet” Warsh. Will “Sock Puppet” Stick?
Russia Threatens European Drone Factories Amid War Struggles
Former President of Russia warning Russia will bomb drone factories in Europe that supply Ukraine. Why? Russia is either losing the war or mightily struggling against Ukraine. And it is drones that are giving Russia fits. Welcome to the 21st century.
S&P 500 Near Record, 10‑Day Rally
The S&P 500 all-time closing high was January 27, 2026, at 6,78.60 As I write this, the S&P 500 is at 6955, less than 14 points away. The last six months of closing the S&P 500 is below. The green annotation...
TLT Trading Volume Hits Three-Year Low, Signaling Waning Bond Interest
TLT is a good proxy for bond market interest. And interest (volume) is now at a 3+ year low. * $TLT's volume today was 12.720M shares, the lowest daily volume since January 2023 (and this INCLUDES holidays) * The 5-day average volume...
US Oil Export Shift Requires Double Tanker Fleet, Years
Yes, it appears supertankers are heading to the US to get oil. The US exports 5 million barrels a day. So, the US has it. BUT.... The majority of Middle Eastern crude oil goes to Asia. That is a 21-day trip from the...
Trump Announces US Blockade of Hormuz Shipping
*TRUMP SAYS US WILL BEGIN BLOCKADE OF SHIPS TO AND FROM HORMUZ The shipping tourists can stop counting ships. It is now zero. https://t.co/1AQGj4UeEF
Energy Market Volatility Drives Vitol’s Costly Derivatives Losses
My working hypothesis is that the extreme volatility in the energy markets has largely led to losses. No one can make money when prices are soaring and collapse by $20 in a few days. --- https://t.co/S30XPZwVcq Vitol Group is reorganizing its derivatives team in...
US Destroyer Turns Back After Iran Threat via Pakistan
https://t.co/BrBdceeoER Interesting take by Bloomberg: A US destroyer was seen moving from Fujairah toward the waterway, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency said separately. Iran’s armed forces monitored it and conveyed this to the US via Pakistani mediators, the news agency said. The US vessel...
Only Iranian-Linked Vessels Now Using the Strait
While everyone is focused on variations of this chart, the story reposted below might be more important. Essentially, only Iranian-linked ships are passing through the Strait; no one else. https://t.co/SvcJA7aoSC
Ceasefire Holds Two Days; Pakistan Talks Loom This Weekend
1/2 The ceasefire is holding for a second day. Now comes the talks in Pakistan this weekend. https://t.co/5eNrGiPQPH
SaaS Index Plummets 40% While S&P Slides 1%
This chart starts 10/28/25, the all-time high of the SaaS index (blue). SaaS is now -40%, while the SPX is -1% (black). Over the last 3 days, the power/fear of Mythos (repost) has SaaS at -11.46%, -5.15% today (bottom panel), the...
War Alone Doesn't Explain 74‑Year Low Consumer Confidence
The University of Michigan has been conducting a consumer confidence survey for 74 years (starting in 1952). The lowest reading in this history is the number out today for April 2026 at 47.6. The commentary from the University of Michigan attributes...
Iran's Drone Strikes Drop to Seven After Massive Launch
Iran has so far fired just 7 drones today, all at Bahrain, this after launching a monthly high of 149 missiles and drones yesterday. Will it last? Will it get ships moving? https://t.co/RNn07BEdGM
Shipping Stalls in Hormuz Until Iran Halts Attacks
The last plot is through 9:43 AM ET today (April 8th). It is on track to be the highest of the last month. Again, this has to go to zero for shipping to start moving through the Strait. Note that the uptick...
Iran Agrees to Ceasefire, Reopening Strait of Hormuz Soon
*IRAN ACCEPTS PAKISTAN'S TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL: NYT -- "ceasefire will come into force when Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz" -- So, this chart will be at zero tomorrow, and ships can start moving immediately? https://t.co/3VFPp2rq6x
May WTI Crude Surges to New High, Up 20%
May WTI crude oil futures are now at a new high and up 20% from Friday's low. https://t.co/rqftGvnrgP
Iran Challenges Trump, Threatens Civilian Hostages at Power Plants
Iran is calling Trump's bluff. They want him to attack And if the Iranian military, at the point of a gun, forcibly puts dozens, if not hundreds, of civilians on bridges and at the front entrance of all of the power plants,...
Why Target Bitcoin Over Trillion‑Dollar Banking Systems?
Please explain why, having this technology, you would focus on Bitcoin? Why not Fedwire, and take trillions from the banking industry? Do hackers really think this small?
Brent Crude Hits New High, Up 59% Since War
Nearby Brent Crude Oil Futures made a new closing high today. Up 59% since the war began. https://t.co/659nwQCHcc
US Navy's Proximity Stalls Commercial Traffic in Hormuz
And Trump just explained why there’s virtually no commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz right now. The Lincoln is ~600 miles off Iran’s coast. That gives it several minutes of warning time, plus an entire air wing, three destroyers, a...
War Triggers Swing From Expected Cuts to Near‑zero Hikes
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
Crisis Unites Yield and Oil: Correlations Converge
Tick chart starting Friday afternoon. 10-year yield (white) Nearby WTI crude oil futures (blue) In a crisis, all correlations go to 1. https://t.co/0ubKfHkt9Q
Markets Surge as Israel Fears Trump’s Quick Iran Deal
After hours risk markets are "popping" higher on this story. No word on if this includes opening the Strait of Hormuz (or they agree to keep it closed and stop shooting.) Channel 12s source is the Israeli Government, suggesting they are...
Awaiting Iran's “Tape Bomb”—Deal Hinges on Surprise Announcement
So, we are waiting for a "tape bomb" at any moment saying either Iranians agreed to talk (positive) or not agreeing to talk (effectively ending the possibility of deal).
Bitcoin Slides 5% After Trump's 48‑hour Ultimatum
Bitcoin now down 5% since Trump’s 48 hour ultimatum. Markets open in 40 minutes https://t.co/FdLpQqqAjk
Markets Reprice Inflation Shock, Not Recession Fears
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
10‑Year Yield Climbs to 4.38%, Highest Since July
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
Lifting Sanctions Boosts Iran's Oil Profits, Not Global Prices
Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and...
Asia Faces Demand Destruction as Middle Eastern Crude Hits $150
1/5 Where Is the Demand Destruction? tl:dr - Asia because they are reliant on Middle Eastern Crude oil, and it is now over $150/barrel. This is keeping (for now) the American and European grades "only" ~$100. (% gain since the war) https://t.co/A6Rk6TjszH
War Drives Gas Prices Up 86 Cents, 28.8% Rise
Yesterday was day #17 of the war. The national average of gasoline is up 86 cents (middle panel) Or 28.8% (bottom panel) https://t.co/I26G2JAxHr
AIS‑active Ships Signal Genuine Reopening Underway
The most important chart right now. Note that this only tracks ships with their AIS (Automated Identification System) turned on, think the GPS on your phone or in your car. More ships are going through, but they turn off their AIS. But once...
Gas Prices Surge 25% in Just Two Weeks
National average of gas prices is up 73 cents since the war started 15 days ago (middle panel), or 25% (bottom panel). https://t.co/NhhuStQnOD
Dubai Flight Halt Threatens Elite’s Tax‑haven Allure
*DUBAI TEMPORARILY SUSPENDS FLIGHTS AT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT For years, Dubai, the UAE and Qatar have presented themselves as bulletproof tax havens and sanctuaries for the global elite. Just four years ago, Qatar hosted the 2022 World Cup, signaling the region's arrival...
Oil Price Hinges on Strait Progress, $90 or $110
Regarding crude at $90 or $110 Monday. ... Joint Chiefs Dan Caine said we are going to hit 6K targets today. I assume the same on Saturday and Sunday. So, Monday morning, I assume Caine says we hit 18K targets. If we see...
Iran's Move Could Crash Oil Prices, Lose Leverage
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Highway Feels Like a Playground, Minus the Speed
The only reason I do not allow my children to play in the middle of the highway is the cars speeding at 70 MPH. Otherwise, the highway is open as a playground.