Iran Challenges Trump, Threatens Civilian Hostages at Power Plants
Iran is calling Trump's bluff. They want him to attack And if the Iranian military, at the point of a gun, forcibly puts dozens, if not hundreds, of civilians on bridges and at the front entrance of all of the power plants, what are we going to do?
Why Target Bitcoin Over Trillion‑Dollar Banking Systems?
Please explain why, having this technology, you would focus on Bitcoin? Why not Fedwire, and take trillions from the banking industry? Do hackers really think this small?
Brent Crude Hits New High, Up 59% Since War
Nearby Brent Crude Oil Futures made a new closing high today. Up 59% since the war began. https://t.co/659nwQCHcc
US Navy's Proximity Stalls Commercial Traffic in Hormuz
And Trump just explained why there’s virtually no commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz right now. The Lincoln is ~600 miles off Iran’s coast. That gives it several minutes of warning time, plus an entire air wing, three destroyers, a...
War Triggers Swing From Expected Cuts to Near‑zero Hikes
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz
Crisis Unites Yield and Oil: Correlations Converge
Tick chart starting Friday afternoon. 10-year yield (white) Nearby WTI crude oil futures (blue) In a crisis, all correlations go to 1. https://t.co/0ubKfHkt9Q
Markets Surge as Israel Fears Trump’s Quick Iran Deal
After hours risk markets are "popping" higher on this story. No word on if this includes opening the Strait of Hormuz (or they agree to keep it closed and stop shooting.) Channel 12s source is the Israeli Government, suggesting they are...
Awaiting Iran's “Tape Bomb”—Deal Hinges on Surprise Announcement
So, we are waiting for a "tape bomb" at any moment saying either Iranians agreed to talk (positive) or not agreeing to talk (effectively ending the possibility of deal).
Bitcoin Slides 5% After Trump's 48‑hour Ultimatum
Bitcoin now down 5% since Trump’s 48 hour ultimatum. Markets open in 40 minutes https://t.co/FdLpQqqAjk
Markets Reprice Inflation Shock, Not Recession Fears
1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up...
10‑Year Yield Climbs to 4.38%, Highest Since July
1/6 The 10-year yield was up 13 bps yesterday, closing at 4.38%, the highest level since late July The bond market's view changed in the last few days. 🧵 https://t.co/QnAMwCkKch
Lifting Sanctions Boosts Iran's Oil Profits, Not Global Prices
Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and...
Asia Faces Demand Destruction as Middle Eastern Crude Hits $150
1/5 Where Is the Demand Destruction? tl:dr - Asia because they are reliant on Middle Eastern Crude oil, and it is now over $150/barrel. This is keeping (for now) the American and European grades "only" ~$100. (% gain since the war) https://t.co/A6Rk6TjszH
War Drives Gas Prices Up 86 Cents, 28.8% Rise
Yesterday was day #17 of the war. The national average of gasoline is up 86 cents (middle panel) Or 28.8% (bottom panel) https://t.co/I26G2JAxHr
AIS‑active Ships Signal Genuine Reopening Underway
The most important chart right now. Note that this only tracks ships with their AIS (Automated Identification System) turned on, think the GPS on your phone or in your car. More ships are going through, but they turn off their AIS. But once...
Gas Prices Surge 25% in Just Two Weeks
National average of gas prices is up 73 cents since the war started 15 days ago (middle panel), or 25% (bottom panel). https://t.co/NhhuStQnOD
Dubai Flight Halt Threatens Elite’s Tax‑haven Allure
*DUBAI TEMPORARILY SUSPENDS FLIGHTS AT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT For years, Dubai, the UAE and Qatar have presented themselves as bulletproof tax havens and sanctuaries for the global elite. Just four years ago, Qatar hosted the 2022 World Cup, signaling the region's arrival...
Oil Price Hinges on Strait Progress, $90 or $110
Regarding crude at $90 or $110 Monday. ... Joint Chiefs Dan Caine said we are going to hit 6K targets today. I assume the same on Saturday and Sunday. So, Monday morning, I assume Caine says we hit 18K targets. If we see...
Iran's Move Could Crash Oil Prices, Lose Leverage
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Highway Feels Like a Playground, Minus the Speed
The only reason I do not allow my children to play in the middle of the highway is the cars speeding at 70 MPH. Otherwise, the highway is open as a playground.
Fed Cuts Would Spike Yields Amid Oil‑driven Demand Destruction
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
Goldman’s Shifting Forecasts Reveal War to Reopen Hormuz
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
Neutralize Iran's Shipping Threats to Lower Oil Prices
"There is no reason, whether or not Trump declares that war is over, to think that Iran will not continue for some time to threaten to destroy the ships that try. Why should they stop?" --- Exactly, Trump cannot TACO. If he...
Generals Stuck in Past, Ignore Emerging Drone Threats
He learned little/nothing from the drone warfare between Russia and Ukraine. Or the Houthis in the Red Sea. Or Hamas in Gaza against Israel. They ignored the Ukrainians when they said they have a defensive option against drones. Generals always prepare for the last...
Gas Prices Surge 20.6% in 11 Days, Historic Rise
The chart below shows the national average retail gasoline price from an AAA Motor Club survey. Yesterday was day 11 since the war started on February 28. The middle panel shows the 11-day dollar rise. The current 61-cent rise was exceeded...
Seafarer Deaths Surpass US Casualties, Strait Reopening Uncertain
1/6 Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war. The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of...
Oil Prices Swing Amid Naval Escort and Mine Threats
Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the...
Navy Escort Through Hormuz Eases Supply Fears, Oil Falls
This Bloomberg headline crossing now may explain the new downturn in crude oil prices (repost) --- *US NAVY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
US Oil Slides 15% to $80, 32% Below Peak
*US OIL PRICES EXTEND DECLINE, FALL 15% TO TRADE NEAR $80/BBL April 2026 WTI futures are now down ~32% since Sunday night's peak https://t.co/9QugACQ3Q0
War Drives Gas Prices up 18% in Eight Days
Yesterday was day 8 of the war. The national average of gas prices is up 54 cents (18%) since it started. Prices were up 6 cents yesterday. https://t.co/gCWn8VQcNz
Oil Slides as Hormuz Transits Expected to Ease War Impact
*WTI OIL DROPS AS MUCH AS 10% TO $85.52/BBL AT START OF [Tuesday] TRADING *TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR WILL END 'SOON' BUT NOT THIS WEEK Not to be callous ... but the market really cares about oil tankers moving through the Strait...
Trump's Iran Comment Pushes Oil Below $90, Markets Rally
As I noted in this thread, no oil infrastructure was damaged. This was all about waiting for a resolution to gets the ships moving again. Looks like that happened and the market is pricing in the end of the war. Headlines * TRUMP...
Year‑long 10% Energy Surge Adds 40bps Inflation, Cuts Growth
1/5 A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. So, what price measures "persists for a...
Brent Crude Jumps 25% Amid Middle East Conflict
*BRENT CRUDE OIL EXTENDS SURGE TO 25% ON MIDEAST WAR DISRUPTION In addition to rallying 25% today (Sunday night), May Brent Crude oil futures are up 56% since last Wednesday's low (March 4th). https://t.co/Afycm5leiS
Gas Prices Jump 15%, Boost March CPI by 0.45%
The national average of gasoline prices is up 45 cents since the war began last week, or a 15.12% increase. This is the second largest increase in the last two decades, depending on the measure you choose (dollar or percentage). All things...
Retail‑Heavy Korean Market Crashes, Triggers Circuit Breaker
*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED AFTER S. KOREA'S KOSPI PLUNGES 8% *KOREA'S KOSPI EXTENDS DROP TO 10% AFTER TRADING RESUMES The chart shows that the South Korean KOSPI stock index has doubled since last August (green) and has already corrected 17% from Friday's high...
Stocks May Need to Tumble as Bonds Buy Crash Insurance
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
SPX Near Record High Amid Soaring Stock Volatility
As of Fri's close, the SPX sat just 0.99% below its Jan 28 all-time high (~6,978.6). Yet everyone's screaming "chaos & uncertainty"? Blue = mkt-cap wgted avg "VIX" of the 500 constituents (now 38) Orange = standard 30-day VIX (17.6) Green =...
Software Stocks Tumble; Crypto Mirrors the Decline
Software stocks are struggling again today. $IGV (iShares Software ETF) is essentially back to last week's panic lows. Don't forget there's another type of software, "programmable money," crypto. Bitcoin (blue) with the software index (orange). They are the same thing. https://t.co/tLEELqcWcJ
