Fed Cuts Would Spike Yields Amid Oil‑driven Demand Destruction
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the inability of tankers to get through the Strait of Hormuz. So, someone has to consume less crude oil. Surging crude oil prices are the market’s way of forcing the marginal buyer to stop purchasing, bringing supply and demand back into balance. If the Fed tries to offset higher crude oil/gasoline prices by cutting rates, the market will respond by pushing prices even higher. It will not stop until enough people refrain from consuming crude oil/gasoline to restore balance between supply and demand. This vicious cycle would be viewed as inflation returning, like 2022, and the bond market would sell off hard, sending yields soaring. Scott Bessent knows this, which is why the smart move is to let the market do its job and keep Powell on hold until the supply shock passes.
Goldman’s Shifting Forecasts Reveal War to Reopen Hormuz
Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again...
Neutralize Iran's Shipping Threats to Lower Oil Prices
"There is no reason, whether or not Trump declares that war is over, to think that Iran will not continue for some time to threaten to destroy the ships that try. Why should they stop?" --- Exactly, Trump cannot TACO. If he...
Generals Stuck in Past, Ignore Emerging Drone Threats
He learned little/nothing from the drone warfare between Russia and Ukraine. Or the Houthis in the Red Sea. Or Hamas in Gaza against Israel. They ignored the Ukrainians when they said they have a defensive option against drones. Generals always prepare for the last...
Gas Prices Surge 20.6% in 11 Days, Historic Rise
The chart below shows the national average retail gasoline price from an AAA Motor Club survey. Yesterday was day 11 since the war started on February 28. The middle panel shows the 11-day dollar rise. The current 61-cent rise was exceeded...
Seafarer Deaths Surpass US Casualties, Strait Reopening Uncertain
1/6 Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war. The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of...
Oil Prices Swing Amid Naval Escort and Mine Threats
Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the...
Navy Escort Through Hormuz Eases Supply Fears, Oil Falls
This Bloomberg headline crossing now may explain the new downturn in crude oil prices (repost) --- *US NAVY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
US Oil Slides 15% to $80, 32% Below Peak
*US OIL PRICES EXTEND DECLINE, FALL 15% TO TRADE NEAR $80/BBL April 2026 WTI futures are now down ~32% since Sunday night's peak https://t.co/9QugACQ3Q0
War Drives Gas Prices up 18% in Eight Days
Yesterday was day 8 of the war. The national average of gas prices is up 54 cents (18%) since it started. Prices were up 6 cents yesterday. https://t.co/gCWn8VQcNz
Oil Slides as Hormuz Transits Expected to Ease War Impact
*WTI OIL DROPS AS MUCH AS 10% TO $85.52/BBL AT START OF [Tuesday] TRADING *TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR WILL END 'SOON' BUT NOT THIS WEEK Not to be callous ... but the market really cares about oil tankers moving through the Strait...
Trump's Iran Comment Pushes Oil Below $90, Markets Rally
As I noted in this thread, no oil infrastructure was damaged. This was all about waiting for a resolution to gets the ships moving again. Looks like that happened and the market is pricing in the end of the war. Headlines * TRUMP...
Year‑long 10% Energy Surge Adds 40bps Inflation, Cuts Growth
1/5 A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. So, what price measures "persists for a...
Brent Crude Jumps 25% Amid Middle East Conflict
*BRENT CRUDE OIL EXTENDS SURGE TO 25% ON MIDEAST WAR DISRUPTION In addition to rallying 25% today (Sunday night), May Brent Crude oil futures are up 56% since last Wednesday's low (March 4th). https://t.co/Afycm5leiS
Gas Prices Jump 15%, Boost March CPI by 0.45%
The national average of gasoline prices is up 45 cents since the war began last week, or a 15.12% increase. This is the second largest increase in the last two decades, depending on the measure you choose (dollar or percentage). All things...
Retail‑Heavy Korean Market Crashes, Triggers Circuit Breaker
*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED AFTER S. KOREA'S KOSPI PLUNGES 8% *KOREA'S KOSPI EXTENDS DROP TO 10% AFTER TRADING RESUMES The chart shows that the South Korean KOSPI stock index has doubled since last August (green) and has already corrected 17% from Friday's high...
Stocks May Need to Tumble as Bonds Buy Crash Insurance
The SPX is now down ~2.5%. As the red annotations show, the 10-year yield is 5 bps lower to 4.06%. Bonds are being bought as crash insurance. This probably means stocks have to crash to keep bonds from trading back to 4.11%. https://t.co/Ks8NfeSfzT
SPX Near Record High Amid Soaring Stock Volatility
As of Fri's close, the SPX sat just 0.99% below its Jan 28 all-time high (~6,978.6). Yet everyone's screaming "chaos & uncertainty"? Blue = mkt-cap wgted avg "VIX" of the 500 constituents (now 38) Orange = standard 30-day VIX (17.6) Green =...
Software Stocks Tumble; Crypto Mirrors the Decline
Software stocks are struggling again today. $IGV (iShares Software ETF) is essentially back to last week's panic lows. Don't forget there's another type of software, "programmable money," crypto. Bitcoin (blue) with the software index (orange). They are the same thing. https://t.co/tLEELqcWcJ