Four-Step Guide to Earning Zenith Chronomaster Sport
My path to Zenith Chronomaster Sport — 4 steps across 4 categories on HaikuZone https://t.co/iu7pLVoUxT https://t.co/ujYm2l0SG4
AI Benchmarks May Be Skewed by Selective Reporting
How much p-hacking is happening among AI benchmark makers? IE: Coming up with 100 model capability tests, and then only publishing results that show a nice upward slope that matches our intuitions about improving strength over time?
Model Predicts Moves Easier in 1000‑Elo Games than 2000‑Elo
Still fiddling around with this as a benchmark. I created 200 synthetic chess games (with Stockfish). One batch at 1000 elo, and another batch at 2000 elo. I show the models a board and ask it to guess the last...
Economists Misjudge AI's White‑Collar Job Disruption
NEW ODD LOTS: @tracyalloway and I talk to @alexolegimas about what economists might be getting wrong about AI and white collar disruption, and how to most clearly understand what jobs are at risk https://t.co/GO71lxRITy
AI Tweets Miss My Voice, but Embrace Absurdity
I asked Opus 4.7 to come up with 10 tweets in my voice. And they sound nothing like me. But some of them have a kind of bizarre or absurd quality that I kind of like https://t.co/PcZyz7DCVK
Oil Industry Reality Checked Against Landman Scenes
We recorded two episodes today about the general state of the oil industry and half the questions were me asking about various scenes in Landman and asking how realistic they were
Landlords Reap Gold Rush Profits, Not Miners
Remember. In a gold rush, the big winners are the landlords where the workers at the picks and shovels factories live. https://t.co/ROYlS1kD64
Custom Chips Threaten True Openness of AI Models
If the most performant AI models are going to be those that are being run on a custom-tailored chip architecture (for that model) for inference, does that mean that "open source" means less than meets the eye, since most users...
NASDAQ Gains 5% in 2026 Without Tech Giants
The NASDAQ is up over 5% in 2026. This is an index that includes tons of software companies, and doesn't include the companies that are supposedly going to devour the software companies. And yet it's still up over 5%
NASDAQ Poised for 12-Day Green Streak, First Since 2009
If the NASDAQ closes green, it will be its longest streak of up days (12) since 2009.
Initial Jobless Claims Remain Unusually Low Recently
Interesting chart. Just going based on the last few years, initial jobless claims are unusually subdued https://t.co/3oUeLlzLaW
SpaceX Registers Over 18% of U.S. Cybertrucks Q4
"SpaceX, the Musk-led rocket and satellite maker, accounted for 1,279 — or more than 18% — of the 7,071 Cybertrucks registered in the US during the fourth quarter, according to registration data that S&P Global Mobility provided to Bloomberg News."...
Jobless Claims Beat Forecasts, Layoffs Remain Stalled
Still nothing doing on the layoff front *US JOBLESS CLAIMS 207,000 IN APRIL 11 WEEK; EST. 213K
AI Breakthroughs in Language, Vision, Browsing Arrived Together
If you had told an AI researcher in 2016 that in 6 or 7 years, computers would be easily able to communicate in language?Would it have been obvious to them that other non-obviously linguistic capabilities (image generation, web browsing, etc)...
China Urges Platforms to Stop AI‑fear Amplification
There was an editorial in China's Science & Technology Daily last month saying that internet platforms should not amplify content about falling behind if you don't use AI. https://t.co/h9qdo6Uni4 (seen via @mattsheehan88's Substack) https://t.co/vgi6mK6kOa https://t.co/6Oboqu56BI
LLMs Need Human-Level Persuasion to Become Economically Relevant
LLMs won't be economically significant until they can display a certain level of human convincingness. So we need a difficult test for that. How about: Can we get a model that can convince your median startup founder that GDP is actually...
Jane Street Invests $1B in CRWV, Secures Nvidia Chip Access
Jane Street is taking a $1 billion equity stake in $CRWV and as part of the deal, the trading firm will get early access to some of Nvidia's most advanced chips. https://t.co/Q5wpPfkbdq https://t.co/Sy75Mmuen0
AI Hype Fatigue and Subscription Quality Decline
There are two things in particular that I agree with in this @edzitron piece The ongoing pressure campaign to get everyone to try using AI is nauseating. It is bad that after you pay for an AI subscription, it gets degraded https://t.co/SBOw9muSlb
Questioning Dismissal of Stylometric Links Between Back and Satoshi
@JohnCarreyrou what’s your response to people who say that stylometrically, Adam Back’s C++ is nothing like Satoshi’s? What’s the rationale for discarding that analysis
Kids Raised with Eight Languages Thrive Linguistically
The “forbidden experiment” — raising a child with no language exposure — is forbidden for very good reasons. But has anyone studied the opposite, what happens to children in extreme polyglot households? Like where they’re hearing 8 languages with equal regularity...
AI Overbuild Quietly Fades From Headlines
In today's Odd Lots newsletter, I wrote about how you don't hear much about the AI overbuild anymore. https://t.co/qkfyqDYIVF
Hungarian Forint Leads Global Currency Gains Today
Hungarian forint is far and away the best performing major currency in the world today https://t.co/fg6Z1FKw5u
New AI Benchmark Idea May Uncover More than Noise
Last night in the middle of the night, I thought of a possible new AI benchmark. Still needs some more work and data though before I can tell if it will reveal anything more than just noise. https://t.co/31MmDMUA7A
Anthropic's Compute Shortage Limits Mythos Rollout
So how much of the limited (virtually non-existent) Mythos rollout a function of Anthropic’s compute scarcity?
Solidarity Struggles When You Have Cool Things
“Solidarity can be difficult if you’ve got cool stuff to lose” I can’t tell if that’s a great line or a terrible one, but either way, I love the new Strokes single https://t.co/DqwWUdXYNP
Concern: Chinese Hackers May Steal Advanced Orality Detection Tech
Yo @AnthropicAI I’m worried that Chinese hackers will steal our most advanced orality detection technology
Satlock Detects Text Similarity to Satoshi’s Writing Style
PRESENTING: Satlock First stab at a tool that can identify how similar a piece of text is to Satoshi's writing style First screenshot is a known Satoshi comment on Bitcointalk. Second Screenshot is a known @adam3us text. Try it out: https://t.co/ztVVG3i57J https://t.co/9um2MvMXMU
Wall Street Banks Showcase Anthropic’s Mythos As
Has any company ever gotten better advertising than this for anything? *WALL STREET BANKS TRY OUT ANTHROPIC’S MYTHOS AS US URGES TESTS
Limited Satoshi Data Hampers Classifier; AI Still Hallucinates
Trying to build a classifier that can predict whether a given piece of text is Satoshi or not. Unfortunately, I don't think there's enough actual Satoshi content to really do that well But also look how garbage AI can be sometime. Read...
Adam Hides Email Metadata to Preserve Satoshi Mystique
At first glance, it’s fishy that Adam didn’t furnish John the metadata of those emails. But wait. It’s only fishy if Adam wants to be “exonerated.” If he wants people to come away with the impression that he is Satoshi, he...
Satoshi's Britishisms Aren't Proof of British Identity
Another thing. Once we accept the premise that Satoshi took steps to disguise his identity, why should we take his use of Britishisms as evidence of him being British? I mean, nobody (except that one reporter) thought "Satoshi Nakamoto" was...
New Lens on Adam3us Satoshi Claim Challenges Past Identifications
WHY THIS SATOSHI ARTICLE WAS DIFFERENT: In today's newsletter I wrote about the NYT's piece connecting @adam3us to Satoshi, and why it definitely hits different than any prior identification attempt. I also offer a different framework for thinking through Adam's denials https://t.co/5L4jBBrKGS
Bitcoin Community Warns: Exposing Adam without Proof Is Reckless
Everyone in Bitcoin: It’s really reckless and dangerous to expose Adam like that, especially without a smoking gun Adam: https://t.co/YwL5NaJ016
Iranian Traders Swap Gold for Bonds Amid War
This is a really fantastic overview of what's been going on in Iranian financial markets over the last year. Turns out, since the start of this war, Iranian retail traders have been rotating out of precious metals and into fixed income...
Questioning Kimi Claims and Chinese Model Test Validity
Is this true (accurate) about Kimi? If so, is this generally true about Chinese open models? And more importantly, are the tests along this dimension considered to be robust ones? https://t.co/S8SihRyRbI
Satoshi Would Avoid a Public Treasury to Stay Hidden
Would Satoshi have founded a Bitcoin treasury company? It seems really, really hard to imagine. So if you were someone suspected of being Satoshi, and you didn't want to be found out, what would you do?
Peterffy Argues Against Insider Trading Bans Across All Assets
When @tracyalloway asked Thomas Peterffy about insider trading on prediction markets, his answer is that we just shouldn't have insider trading laws in any asset class at all. https://t.co/3qbE7KYcuG https://t.co/VK1yW6TgP2
Adam's Bitcoin Mining Claim Sparks Overstatement Debate
It’s interesting that Adam does claim to have invented Bitcoin mining, and that’s the one area where many people claim he’s making an overstatement. https://t.co/kXirPE7jhy
Satoshi's Mysterious Origin and Flawless OpSec Baffle Us
How are people not fascinated by the origin of Satoshi? Whether it’s one guy or a group, to invent this gigantic novel thing, and to have such incredible OpSec in this day and age is a wild story
LLM Hallucinations Real—Verify Chatbot Answers Like Searches
The critics who talk about LLM's hallucination problem are, IME, completely correct. Other than for coding, I just use the chatbots as glorified search engines, and I don't think you should trust a word they say if you can't find a...
NYT's Powerful Brand Fuels Thriving Non‑news Revenue
There's a lot of cope about the NYT only thriving because of recipes and games. The question is: Why was NYT able to build out these non-news revenue streams? It's because the newspaper has an incredible brand, such that it could be...
Ceasefire Headlines Barely Dent Market; Futures Stay Strong
A day filled with headlines about the ceasefire being violated, not holding, etc. has had almost no impact on stock prices. Futures still way up on the day. https://t.co/6JyGWIaWcl
NY Times' Twitter Silence Hurts Engagement
It's almost certainly true that part of the reason the NY Times twitter account doesn't get much engagement is because they're not really even trying. But also: https://t.co/GtHN3UR5VU
Havelock AI API Free for Researchers to Compare Writing
If anyone wants to compare the orality of Adam Back's writing with Satoshi's writing, the @havelock_AI API is now free for researchers. (It was always free, but it is now as well) https://t.co/mjfYIFAxES
Testing NYT's Claim: Is Satoshi Behind 2015 Debate?
The NYT reported it as a fact that this post was in fact Satoshi getting involved in the block size debate in 2015. But I’m curious how it holds up on the battery of stylometric tests.
Link Posts Don't Harm Engagement, Concerns Overblown
I can only speak for myself, but just from my own posting, I don’t see engagement dropping off when I post links. There are a lot of bad incentivizes around here (some inherent to social media), but i think the...
Netanyahu Faces Bipartisan Backlash over Ceasefire Agreement
Netanyahu is getting slammed domestically in Israel by figures across the spectrum for agreeing to the ceasefire https://t.co/HKFBhhhFdN https://t.co/0a3MiUoT4c
Questioning Satoshi's Alleged Reappearance During Block Size War
Also what's this about? Do we actually know for sure that Satoshi "came out of hiding" during the block size war? I don't remember that detail in @jonathanbier's book. https://t.co/hQbUw6pY6g
Back: Near Bitcoin Inventor Turned Early Evangelist
My read on Back has always been that of the people in the Cypherpunk orbit he was the closest to inventing Bitcoin. And that he became one of Bitcoin's loudest/earliest evangelists, in part, to compensate for not having put it...
Explore Bitcoin's Roots: Must-Read Early Digital Money History
BTW, if you're interested in the pre-history of Bitcoin, and the people who were working on P2P digital money since like the 1970s, I can't recommend this book enough. https://t.co/o2ywOSrdLR