We’ll Never Know What Neanderthals Thought of Us
When Homo Sapiens came onto the scene, were there Neanderthals telling other Neanderthals that they had to get on board to avoid being left behind? Did some Neanderthals think that boosterism would save them? Do we have any hypotheses about what they thought of us?
AI Will Digitize Knowledge, Limiting Understanding to Single Topics
IMO it's delusional to deny AI's potential for research. There are well-known pitfalls ofc (hallucinations are one, obsequiousness and convincingness are others). But I also think it'll make people's knowledge more digital, in the sense that people will know about...
Tanzania Tightens Borders to Halt Fuel Smuggling
"Tanzania is strengthening border controls to stop the smuggling of fuel to its fuel-strapped neighbors..." https://t.co/4B3f7ssGsi
Air Canada CEO Steps Down After English‑only Condolence Video Controversy
The CEO of Air Canada is retiring early after a controversy erupted over his only making a condolences video in English. https://t.co/G1j7JZBGyi https://t.co/Nxny3kHkDu
Discovering a Must
When @our_decay alerted me to the existence is this book knew I had to get a copy https://t.co/hDCgVQPLoC
Rising Inflation Threatens Balanced Portfolios Like 2022
Fears of re-accelerating inflation obliterating balanced portfolios, just like they did in 2022. https://t.co/S7laKGwQLC https://t.co/oLsV6wsuXf
Gulf Nations Question US Security Guarantees Amid Iran Conflict
"Gulf countries are increasingly frustrated with the US over the Iran war, privately questioning American security guarantees and expressing concern about the Trump administration’s apparent lack of strategy..." https://t.co/dmcHthBwRz
AI Generates Personality-Driven Sub‑Agents That Self‑Improve
Let's see if this works. Had Claude Code create sub-agents, each with their own personality, and then told it to just keep improving [think I'm working on] until the sub-agents are impressed. https://t.co/HjEuy5XKoN
US Assures Allies: No Immediate Iran Invasion Plans
Not even a slight bounce on this headline. *US SIGNALS TO ALLIES NO IMMEDIATE PLANS FOR IRAN INVASION
UK Faces First Ever Net Salt Imports
For the first time in history, the UK could become a net importer of salt. https://t.co/LebKeoPpE6 https://t.co/SJkfWqLqVr
Helium Shortage Threatens Semiconductor Production, Says CEO
NEW ODD LOTSL The helium shortage @tracyalloway and I talk to Nicholas Snyder, CEO of North Americah Helium about a commodity with a surprising number of industrial applications, including and especially the semiconductor industry https://t.co/QjwqFhMsdO
Jefferson and Barr's Speeches Raise Fedlock Hawkishness
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
Claude Praised for Prose; Liberal Journalists Favor Anthropic
50% because Claude is perceived to produce better prose. 50% because journalists skew liberal and Anthropic seems like the more lib-coded of the big AI labs.
10‑Year
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
General Predicts Limited Impact of US Boots in Iran
I thought this was an interesting interview with a former general about what "boots on the ground" in Iran might look like, and also what would (and wouldn't be accomplished) by some landing on Kharg Island https://t.co/DDEilUbnMz
Only Two Months of NYC Cold Remind Me
The cold weather in NYC is starting to seriously drag me down, and the only thing keeping me going right is the knowledge that we only have another two months of it. Just gotta keep reminding myself of that.
Saudi Red Sea Oil Shipments Near 5 Million‑Barrel Target
Saudi oil shipments via the Red Sea have been ramping up rapidly and are getting close to the five million BPD target https://t.co/SkPyeLTXbO https://t.co/nmq5Kt89xT
Oil Prices Defy Expectations, Falling Below 2022 Peaks
Every normie feels in their gut that oil should go higher. And every oil expert seems to think that every day we get closer to the true disaster scenario. So why is it that oil is not only below the...
Iran’s “No Ceasefire” Stance Reveals Hidden Interest
You've seen the headlines about Iran not being interested in ceasefire talks. But there is a certain logic by which that means they are interested in ceasefire talks. https://t.co/n0Mh7ctXxo
War Pushes Gulf States to Tighten US Security Ties
This is what @gbrew24 said on Odd Lots, that ultimately, as a result of this war, the Gulf states will have no choice but to deepen their security links to the US.
When a TV Won’t Power On: A Bizarre Glitch
As far as technical glitches go, not being able to turn on TVs is just a super weird thing to go wrong.
Falling Oil Demand May Trigger Higher Future Prices
Is it reasonable to say that a long-term, structural decline in global oil demand would not necessarily translate into lower prices, and could plausibly turn into significantly higher prices in the future?
China Gains First Benefit as Iran War Cuts Oil Imports
CHINA ALREADY GOT ITS FIRST WIN FROM THE WAR IN IRAN In today's newsletter, I wrote about how the long term trend of countries reducing their oil imports by substituting them with Chinese tech is already accelerating since the start of...
Panic Buying Leaves over 100 NSW Diesel Stations Empty
"At least 107 fuel stations across the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia have run out of diesel as panic buying has outstripped supply, premier Chris Minns said today." https://t.co/zXWc5xVLPK
Low Stock Levels Threaten US Reserve Capacity Integrity
Here is something I had not realized. Functionally, the US' strategic petroleum reserve may have less capacity than the stated figures. Should stocks fall below a certain threshold, it could damage the structural integrity of the actual storage facility. https://t.co/AIeGeWdXWV...
Early Dismissal of LLMs Fuels Left‑Right Divide
This is the schism of the left right here. By having staked the claim early on, that LLMs are a gimmick or a "stochastic parrot" that can't actually know anything, it's unacceptable, from the perspective of many, to actually take...
Homebuilder Stocks Tumble 17% Since War Began
Homebuilder stocks are now down 2% today, and have plunged 17% since the start of the war
FOMC Hawkishness Index Surges After Powell’s Press Conference
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
Obsessed with the Name of China's Lunar Rocket
Speaking of going insanely hard, I’m obsessed with the name of the rocket that will take the first Chinese astronauts to the moon https://t.co/62ZZ4ZV2lS
Market Signals No Near-Term Rate Cuts, Slightly Higher Policy Outlook
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
War's Ongoing Cost: Economic Damage Compounds Daily
Every single day that this war goes on, the more the economic damage just compounds. This is the key line right here from @tracyalloway https://t.co/T6hrWxL1Op https://t.co/t8Qos0vB1A
Polymarket Odds Mirror 2‑year Yield on 2026 Rate Cut
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
Powell Refuses to Call Tariff Inflation Impact Certain
Powell says he definitely would not use the word "certain" to describe his view on the onetimeness of the inflationary effect of tariffs
Powell to Stay on Board Until Investigation Concludes
Powell says he has no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is over. And beyond that, he says he has not decided whether or not he will remain on as a Governor after is his term as chair.
Fed Chief Warns Inflation Expectations Could Unanchor Amid Shocks
Powell reiterates that the Fed "worries a lot" about inflation expectations becoming unanchored due to the multiple shocks over the last 5 years.
Powell Grasps Oil Firms' Mindset, Sees Drilling Catalyst
Powell seems to have a strong handle on the thinking of oil companies, and what would catalyze further drillling
Powell: Five Years Off‑Target Guides Oil Surge Tolerance
In response to a question from @colbyLsmith, Powell acknowledges that 5 years of missing the inflation target will help inform the degree to which the FOMC can look through the oil price surge.
FOMC Inflation Forecast Rises for 2026‑2028
The distribution of the FOMC inflation outlook shifted to the right (higher) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 https://t.co/6hxNK4fUdP
Foreign‑flag Tankers Raise Domestic Fuel Costs, Study Finds
"A careful look at the current state of international market freight rates shows that, in fact, substituting a foreign flag tanker on a domestic route currently served by a Jones Act tanker would more than likely result in an increase...
12‑Month Oil Futures Surge Past March Spike
Oil for delivery in 12 months is now way above its spike on March 9. Even if the futures curve were a market forecast of prices -- which as @Rory_Johnston will remind us, it is absolutely not -- that forward...
Bob Brackett Returns: War in Iran Reshapes Global Gas Flows
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
Iran Conflict Drains U.S. Missile Defense, Spurs Procurement Push
NEW ODD LOTS: War in Iran is chewing through America’s missile defense stockpiles @tracyalloway and I talk to @tomkarako about Pentagon procurement and the efforts to ramp up production of offensive and defensive weaponry https://t.co/Wnm1RozhbR
Chatbots Default to Consciousness Debates; Data May Be Cause
When AI chatbots talk to each other, it always seems to descend into tedious dorm room stuff about the nature of consciousness. Has anyone built an LLM with zero sci-fi or philosophy-of-mind content in the training data to see if this...
US Oil Exports Could Spark Overwhelming Ban Demand
I’m really concerned that when people take this one step further and learn that the US is actually selling oil to other countries that the public’s demand for an export ban will become overwhelming.
Linguists Aren’t Just Etymology Fact‑Checkers, McWhorter Explains
I started reading @JohnHMcWhorter’s book about the history of English. It’s so great. The first several pages are a rant about how people think that linguists are etymologists, with their little cocktail party factoids any about specific word histories.
Chinese Zinc Shipments From Iran Cancelled Amid Conflict
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
Iran Conflict Threatens China's Small-Scale Oil Refineries
NEW ODD LOTS: What War in Iran means for the 'teapot' oil refineries in China. @tracyalloway and I talk to @Erica_Downs_ about what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Chinese energy security. https://t.co/ZdGwLQJV8E
Near‑term Crude Cheap, 12‑month Forward Near Peak
While crude for next month delivery is still well below the Monday highs, crude for delivery in 12 months is almost back to its recent peak https://t.co/SGyTj8k9S6
Oil Near Record Close Despite Falling Short of Early Highs
Oil is still well below its highs from the extreme buying that we saw early Monday morning. But if it closed here for the day, it'd be its highest close yet.
2028 Will Force Massive Software Debt Rollovers
A lot of software debt is going to have to be rolled over in 2028. Via Torsten Slok https://t.co/Ddov6qo7ey
