Do Chinese OEMs' Gonzo Instagram Reels Actually Convert?
Has anyone written about whether the gonzo marketing tactics of small Chinese contract manufacturers on Instagram Reels “works” or whether it just makes for amusing content. Like that company that sells charging cables.
Oil's Steepest One‑day Drop Since 1991 Gulf War
Excluding Covid, we're looking at the biggest one day plunge in oil since the first Gulf War in 1991 https://t.co/gjT5CUgwkE
Jefferson Delivers Most Hawkish Fed Speech Since 2023
According to Fedlock, today's speech from Fed Governor Jefferson was his most hawkish since 2023 https://t.co/rgs6erEO5l
Kacey Musgraves' Anti‑hookup Single Breaks Into Country Radio
Interesting cultural development. Kacey Musgraves' latest single about not getting laid is actually getting picked up by mainstream country radio stations. https://t.co/dEqMeZ7BRE
Inside the Real Work of Investment Bankers Daily
NEW ODD LOTS: This is what investment bankers actually do all day. @tracyalloway and I talk to Scott Bok, former longtime CEO of Greenhill & Co, to understand better what the industry does and why companies pay up for their services https://t.co/bLORIQJ8Oq
AI Still Lacks Human‑like Impatient Interjections in Conversation
When will we have chatbots that impatiently interrupt you when it knows where you’re going with a question or point? There are so many elements of actual human conversation that AI isn’t anywhere close to replicating.
AI Bad for Writing, Great for Hawkish Speech Scoring
Kinda mixed feelings about using AI. For writing it’s definitely bad. But I think it’s totally fine to use an LLM to gauge which of two (anonymized) FOMC speeches is more hawkish (macro context dependent) and repeat that thousands of...
Trump's Speech Signals Shift in Oil Market
Short but (characteristically) excellent piece from @Rory_Johnston on Trump’s speech and the oil market https://t.co/UCAlkgeCLD https://t.co/TaxA7jMxrL
Brent Oil Surges to $141.37, Highest Since 2008
Physical oil hits its highest level since 2008 *DATED BRENT OIL PRICE SOARS TO $141.37/BBL, HIGHEST SINCE 2008 https://t.co/OkcbcnE3kg
AI Dominates Medium, Gaining Ground on Reddit
Per @max_spero_ over 50% of Medium was AI-written as of a year and a half ago. Reddit is now up to 10% AI-generated content, up from 7% last year
Havelock AI Parses Trump's Speech, Mostly Accurate with Minor Mislabels
Running Trump's speech last night through @Havelock_AI. Overall does very well. Not all span identifications are perfect. It flagged "Tonight, Iran's navy is gone" as a proverb, for example. But note the Self Correction in sentence 14, which is not...
Detecting AI-Generated Writing: New Tools and Insights
NEW ODD LOTS: How to detect when something was written by AI @tracyalloway and I talk to @max_spero_ of @pangramlabs about this emerging world of written slop, and training models that know the difference between human and machine https://t.co/PZQsLtyCBV
Raimondo Discusses Chips, AI, and US‑Europe Strategy
Really enjoyed chatting with former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimando today @CFR_org. Talked chips, CHIPS, China, AI, US-Europe relations and more. Find it on the feed next week https://t.co/zslTYa4yH1
S&P Barely Down 4% Despite Multiple Crises
The S&P is down less than 4% in 2026. This is despite a war, an oil spike, extreme levels of anxiety about AI disrupting every industry on earth, rising interest rates, private credit worries, and big tech companies moving either...
Seeking Specifics on Balance of Payments Support
@adam_tooze what do you have in mind specifically with respect to balance of payment support?
AI Excels Everywhere Except Writing and Interviewing
Starting to appreciate AI’s so-called “jagged frontier.” It’s obviously really powerful for coding, accounting, graphic design, economics, trip planning, reviewing legal documents, DIY projects marketing, advertising, etc. Yet somehow still terrible at writing and interviewing.
Non‑tech Creator Builds Victorian‑style L
Extremely impressive and inspiring writeup. Someone with no technical background talking about building an LLM that talks like something out of a Victorian-era novel for less than $500.
China's Geothermal Potential Stymied by Policy and Cost
Interesting read on why Geothermal has not taken off as a domestic power source in CHina. https://t.co/sq8xn774Mg https://t.co/K0gI2v6nKr
AI Regulation Mirrors Nuclear Non‑proliferation’s Flawed Moratorium
Good piece on the problem with a datacenter moratorium and the limits of nuclear non-proliferation as an analogy to regulating AI https://t.co/UVjiO0pBBM
AI Code Assistants Raise New Pair‑programming Dynamics
Do engineers who use Claude Code (et. al.) worry about the obsequiousness problem? When we talked with @heyitsnoah he pointed out that "pair programming" has long been a thing in software development. But presumably in a pair, one human isn't just...
AI's Convincing Yet Flawed Arguments Aren't Mere Hallucinations
@sidereal111 thinking about it some more, I disagree. An AI being able to to argue a convincing (but strained) hypothesis feels different to me than just a sub category of hallucination.
Ukraine's Drone Attacks Slash Russian Oil Exports
This is something to keep an eye on. Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil export capacity, via drone. The country's seaborne shipments last week were the lowest since 2022, but unclear if it's the start of a longer trend. ...
China Climbs Value Chain yet Still Dominates Low‑end Markets
One thing that's really impressive is China moving up the manufacturing value chain, while still absolutely dominating the low end. As @Camrjohnson has pointed out (and industry data confirms), China still absolutely dominates in areas like Christmas ornaments.
Market Down 20% Pre-War, Defying Bleak Expectations
This is, honestly, less than I might've guessed given A) An insane run up at the start of the year. B) Expected to be a very hard-hit economy. In fact, the market had fallen ~20% even before the start of the...
Chinese Firms Shift to Vietnam, yet Overall Impact Remains Modest
This is a very interesting piece on Chinese companies moving production to Vietnam. In some sense it's happening at major scale. But also in some other sense, it's very minor, with very little of the TVA leaving China. https://t.co/ZixLeXz4nC https://t.co/BnujaABZ5M
Allbirds' Valuation Plummets From $4B to $39M
Allbirds just sold for $39 million. The company was once worth over $4 billion. https://t.co/KqbYOf0TBg
South Korea Limits Civil Servants' Car Access by Plate Number
"South Korea has already imposed driving restrictions on civil servants, curbing how often they can access government buildings by car based on the last number of their license plates." https://t.co/u8BHPpQXNw
Only 38% Believe AI Progress Matches Their Expectations
Something extremely funny to me about this poll showing that 38% of Americans say the pace of AI development is happening roughly in line with their estimates. https://t.co/MoKRVrsRKY https://t.co/Wrnpsj1pp7
Dallas Fed Survey Comment Turns Unexpectedly Poetic
Someone in the comments to the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey decided to get poetic https://t.co/qJdrLZHg6f
We’ll Never Know What Neanderthals Thought of Us
When Homo Sapiens came onto the scene, were there Neanderthals telling other Neanderthals that they had to get on board to avoid being left behind? Did some Neanderthals think that boosterism would save them? Do we have any hypotheses about...
AI Will Digitize Knowledge, Limiting Understanding to Single Topics
IMO it's delusional to deny AI's potential for research. There are well-known pitfalls ofc (hallucinations are one, obsequiousness and convincingness are others). But I also think it'll make people's knowledge more digital, in the sense that people will know about...
Tanzania Tightens Borders to Halt Fuel Smuggling
"Tanzania is strengthening border controls to stop the smuggling of fuel to its fuel-strapped neighbors..." https://t.co/4B3f7ssGsi
Air Canada CEO Steps Down After English‑only Condolence Video Controversy
The CEO of Air Canada is retiring early after a controversy erupted over his only making a condolences video in English. https://t.co/G1j7JZBGyi https://t.co/Nxny3kHkDu
Discovering a Must
When @our_decay alerted me to the existence is this book knew I had to get a copy https://t.co/hDCgVQPLoC
Rising Inflation Threatens Balanced Portfolios Like 2022
Fears of re-accelerating inflation obliterating balanced portfolios, just like they did in 2022. https://t.co/S7laKGwQLC https://t.co/oLsV6wsuXf
Gulf Nations Question US Security Guarantees Amid Iran Conflict
"Gulf countries are increasingly frustrated with the US over the Iran war, privately questioning American security guarantees and expressing concern about the Trump administration’s apparent lack of strategy..." https://t.co/dmcHthBwRz
AI Generates Personality-Driven Sub‑Agents That Self‑Improve
Let's see if this works. Had Claude Code create sub-agents, each with their own personality, and then told it to just keep improving [think I'm working on] until the sub-agents are impressed. https://t.co/HjEuy5XKoN
US Assures Allies: No Immediate Iran Invasion Plans
Not even a slight bounce on this headline. *US SIGNALS TO ALLIES NO IMMEDIATE PLANS FOR IRAN INVASION
UK Faces First Ever Net Salt Imports
For the first time in history, the UK could become a net importer of salt. https://t.co/LebKeoPpE6 https://t.co/SJkfWqLqVr
Helium Shortage Threatens Semiconductor Production, Says CEO
NEW ODD LOTSL The helium shortage @tracyalloway and I talk to Nicholas Snyder, CEO of North Americah Helium about a commodity with a surprising number of industrial applications, including and especially the semiconductor industry https://t.co/QjwqFhMsdO
Jefferson and Barr's Speeches Raise Fedlock Hawkishness
Today's policy speeches from Jefferson and Barr continue to push the Fedlock hawkishness measure even higher. https://t.co/PYi7b3edxv
Claude Praised for Prose; Liberal Journalists Favor Anthropic
50% because Claude is perceived to produce better prose. 50% because journalists skew liberal and Anthropic seems like the more lib-coded of the big AI labs.
10‑Year
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
General Predicts Limited Impact of US Boots in Iran
I thought this was an interesting interview with a former general about what "boots on the ground" in Iran might look like, and also what would (and wouldn't be accomplished) by some landing on Kharg Island https://t.co/DDEilUbnMz
Only Two Months of NYC Cold Remind Me
The cold weather in NYC is starting to seriously drag me down, and the only thing keeping me going right is the knowledge that we only have another two months of it. Just gotta keep reminding myself of that.
Saudi Red Sea Oil Shipments Near 5 Million‑Barrel Target
Saudi oil shipments via the Red Sea have been ramping up rapidly and are getting close to the five million BPD target https://t.co/SkPyeLTXbO https://t.co/nmq5Kt89xT
Oil Prices Defy Expectations, Falling Below 2022 Peaks
Every normie feels in their gut that oil should go higher. And every oil expert seems to think that every day we get closer to the true disaster scenario. So why is it that oil is not only below the...
Iran’s “No Ceasefire” Stance Reveals Hidden Interest
You've seen the headlines about Iran not being interested in ceasefire talks. But there is a certain logic by which that means they are interested in ceasefire talks. https://t.co/n0Mh7ctXxo
War Pushes Gulf States to Tighten US Security Ties
This is what @gbrew24 said on Odd Lots, that ultimately, as a result of this war, the Gulf states will have no choice but to deepen their security links to the US.
When a TV Won’t Power On: A Bizarre Glitch
As far as technical glitches go, not being able to turn on TVs is just a super weird thing to go wrong.