Falling Oil Demand May Trigger Higher Future Prices
Is it reasonable to say that a long-term, structural decline in global oil demand would not necessarily translate into lower prices, and could plausibly turn into significantly higher prices in the future?
China Gains First Benefit as Iran War Cuts Oil Imports
CHINA ALREADY GOT ITS FIRST WIN FROM THE WAR IN IRAN In today's newsletter, I wrote about how the long term trend of countries reducing their oil imports by substituting them with Chinese tech is already accelerating since the start of...
Panic Buying Leaves over 100 NSW Diesel Stations Empty
"At least 107 fuel stations across the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia have run out of diesel as panic buying has outstripped supply, premier Chris Minns said today." https://t.co/zXWc5xVLPK
Low Stock Levels Threaten US Reserve Capacity Integrity
Here is something I had not realized. Functionally, the US' strategic petroleum reserve may have less capacity than the stated figures. Should stocks fall below a certain threshold, it could damage the structural integrity of the actual storage facility. https://t.co/AIeGeWdXWV...
Early Dismissal of LLMs Fuels Left‑Right Divide
This is the schism of the left right here. By having staked the claim early on, that LLMs are a gimmick or a "stochastic parrot" that can't actually know anything, it's unacceptable, from the perspective of many, to actually take...
Homebuilder Stocks Tumble 17% Since War Began
Homebuilder stocks are now down 2% today, and have plunged 17% since the start of the war
FOMC Hawkishness Index Surges After Powell’s Press Conference
It'll be interesting to see how this looks over the next week, as we get more post-FOMC Fedspeak. But my proprietary measure of FOMC hawkishness climbed even further after Powell's press conference. https://t.co/lNilk5T2yz
Obsessed with the Name of China's Lunar Rocket
Speaking of going insanely hard, I’m obsessed with the name of the rocket that will take the first Chinese astronauts to the moon https://t.co/62ZZ4ZV2lS
Market Signals No Near-Term Rate Cuts, Slightly Higher Policy Outlook
Also in today's newsletter. Per the WIRP function on the terminal, not only are imminent rate cuts off the table, the market-implied policy path is actually *slightly* higher over the rest of the year now. https://t.co/FRganNTPH0
War's Ongoing Cost: Economic Damage Compounds Daily
Every single day that this war goes on, the more the economic damage just compounds. This is the key line right here from @tracyalloway https://t.co/T6hrWxL1Op https://t.co/t8Qos0vB1A
Polymarket Odds Mirror 2‑year Yield on 2026 Rate Cut
The Polymarket odds of "no rate cut in 2026" continue to generally track the 2-year yield https://t.co/VY0P2eN1XO
Powell Refuses to Call Tariff Inflation Impact Certain
Powell says he definitely would not use the word "certain" to describe his view on the onetimeness of the inflationary effect of tariffs
Powell to Stay on Board Until Investigation Concludes
Powell says he has no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is over. And beyond that, he says he has not decided whether or not he will remain on as a Governor after is his term as chair.
Fed Chief Warns Inflation Expectations Could Unanchor Amid Shocks
Powell reiterates that the Fed "worries a lot" about inflation expectations becoming unanchored due to the multiple shocks over the last 5 years.
Powell Grasps Oil Firms' Mindset, Sees Drilling Catalyst
Powell seems to have a strong handle on the thinking of oil companies, and what would catalyze further drillling
Powell: Five Years Off‑Target Guides Oil Surge Tolerance
In response to a question from @colbyLsmith, Powell acknowledges that 5 years of missing the inflation target will help inform the degree to which the FOMC can look through the oil price surge.
FOMC Inflation Forecast Rises for 2026‑2028
The distribution of the FOMC inflation outlook shifted to the right (higher) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 https://t.co/6hxNK4fUdP
Foreign‑flag Tankers Raise Domestic Fuel Costs, Study Finds
"A careful look at the current state of international market freight rates shows that, in fact, substituting a foreign flag tanker on a domestic route currently served by a Jones Act tanker would more than likely result in an increase...
12‑Month Oil Futures Surge Past March Spike
Oil for delivery in 12 months is now way above its spike on March 9. Even if the futures curve were a market forecast of prices -- which as @Rory_Johnston will remind us, it is absolutely not -- that forward...
Bob Brackett Returns: War in Iran Reshapes Global Gas Flows
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
Iran Conflict Drains U.S. Missile Defense, Spurs Procurement Push
NEW ODD LOTS: War in Iran is chewing through America’s missile defense stockpiles @tracyalloway and I talk to @tomkarako about Pentagon procurement and the efforts to ramp up production of offensive and defensive weaponry https://t.co/Wnm1RozhbR
Chatbots Default to Consciousness Debates; Data May Be Cause
When AI chatbots talk to each other, it always seems to descend into tedious dorm room stuff about the nature of consciousness. Has anyone built an LLM with zero sci-fi or philosophy-of-mind content in the training data to see if this...
US Oil Exports Could Spark Overwhelming Ban Demand
I’m really concerned that when people take this one step further and learn that the US is actually selling oil to other countries that the public’s demand for an export ban will become overwhelming.
Linguists Aren’t Just Etymology Fact‑Checkers, McWhorter Explains
I started reading @JohnHMcWhorter’s book about the history of English. It’s so great. The first several pages are a rant about how people think that linguists are etymologists, with their little cocktail party factoids any about specific word histories.
Chinese Zinc Shipments From Iran Cancelled Amid Conflict
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
Iran Conflict Threatens China's Small-Scale Oil Refineries
NEW ODD LOTS: What War in Iran means for the 'teapot' oil refineries in China. @tracyalloway and I talk to @Erica_Downs_ about what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for Chinese energy security. https://t.co/ZdGwLQJV8E
Near‑term Crude Cheap, 12‑month Forward Near Peak
While crude for next month delivery is still well below the Monday highs, crude for delivery in 12 months is almost back to its recent peak https://t.co/SGyTj8k9S6
Oil Near Record Close Despite Falling Short of Early Highs
Oil is still well below its highs from the extreme buying that we saw early Monday morning. But if it closed here for the day, it'd be its highest close yet.
2028 Will Force Massive Software Debt Rollovers
A lot of software debt is going to have to be rolled over in 2028. Via Torsten Slok https://t.co/Ddov6qo7ey
IEA Warns War Could Cause Unprecedented Oil Disruption
The IEA says the war in turning into the biggest oil disruption in world history https://t.co/UJZqGyrhUP
Opponents Haven't Urged Fannie/Freddie to Ease Credit Standards
Have any of the people who oppose investors owning “build to rent” housing called on Fannie/Freddie to liberalize their lending standards to lower FICO buyers?
Urea‑to‑corn Price Ratio Hits Near Post‑Covid Peak
The ratio of urea to corn is nearing its worst levels of the post-Covid inflation. https://t.co/2Eazf7LmiV https://t.co/O3bgdlViKO
No Strategic Urea Reserve; Buffer Storage Nearly Nonexistent
Not only is there no strategic urea reserve, if you listen to today's episode, you'll see there really isn't much buffer storage anywhere at all https://t.co/niRvIF7txf
US Spends $4 Billion on Munitions in First 72 Hours
"The US used as much as $4 billion worth of munitions in the first 72 hours of its attacks against Iran" https://t.co/j5LKsavuyS
Developers
Why do a lot of software people like a tool that can allow them to expend their mental energy on higher order problems, while writers dislike the tool that can replace their output completely? Truly one of the great...
Futures Dip to Daily Lows, Market Stays Calm
Futures are at their lows of the day, but everything's quieted down since the start of the week https://t.co/sqcA2J1f9o
Every Dip Purchase Eventually Matched Earnings Growth, Surprisingly
People like to claim that traders have been trained like circus monkeys to buy every dip. But has there been any dip buying which, ex post, wasn’t justified by subsequent realized earning growth?
Displaced Professionals Now Paid to Teach AI Their Jobs
Lawyers and scientists and other people who have lost their jobs have now entered the gig economy, where they get paid to help train AIs to do their old job. https://t.co/GnzhOtpe8O https://t.co/km7gCmpXK0
Stocks Stay Green, Oil Barely Rebounds After Recovery
After the big recovery yesterday, and the headline that we got since Trump's comments, it's interesting that stocks are still green, and that oil hasn't bounced very much
Hormuz Closure Could Push Oil Past $200
HOW OIL COULD SURGE TO $200 AND BEYOND @tracyalloway and I talk with @Rory_Johnston -- typically one of the least-alarmist people in oil -- about how the longer the Straight of Hormuz is shut, the greater the likelihood of an...
AI Image Generators Rose Alongside LLMs by Design
Was it inevitable (from a tech perspective) that AI image generation would take off at roughly the same time as LLMs?
New Pipeline Could Ease Hormuz Strait Oil Disruption
Read @JavierBlas on the oil pipeline that could ameliorate the closure of the Straight of Hormuz https://t.co/hfkrPgLpIy https://t.co/BIgHZhk6rA
Quit Intentions Hit Lowest Point Since Survey Start
The % of workers who plan to quit their jobs has fallen to its lowest level since the start of the NY Fed's survey. People who have a job are not giving them up right now https://t.co/p7kO4PdQ2A
Beyond Price Control: New Roles for a Full US SPR
People recoil at the idea of using the SPR just to damp prices. But now that the US has plenty of domestic oil, what other purposes would it serve? What other conditions would be an appropriate time to use it?
Iranian Attacks on UAE Sharply Decline; Motives Unclear
There's been a big drop in Iranian attacks on the UAE, though nobody knows whether it's a strategic choice, or whether it reflects diminishing stockpiles. https://t.co/gt6ed9Fg9S https://t.co/oMHskjmjSQ
Memory Chip Prices Surge 50% in Two Weeks
Wow, a respondent to the Dallas Fed's Service Sector report said that the prices they're paying for memory chips have jumped 50% in the last two weeks https://t.co/RdULT0epp4
SPAC IPO of $
I hadn't realized that $OWL came public via SPAC. It's now right back to its original price. Turns out it was all priced in. EMH undefeated https://t.co/Q6eyG9hYLM
Market Fueled by Doomers and Boomers, Says Nomura
Charlie McElligott at Nomura says that the market is being driven by 'Doomers and Boomers' https://t.co/PbuzHGo8VF
Core PCE Goods Over 2% Inflation Trending Upward
The number of core goods in the PCE basket with >2% inflation is clearly on the rise https://t.co/zfnw5c3Qnr
Jobs Data Wednesday, CPI Hits Friday
All the data coming for the rest of the week. We're going to have Jobs Wednesday and then CPI Friday https://t.co/8DDq0vkOvD