Skipped BIRD Liquidation; Stock Surged 467%
I took a look at $BIRD upon announcement of their asset sale as a liquidation play, but figured we may get screwed on the liquidation proceeds, so I passed. Turns out my thesis was right, but the result was very, very wrong (at least today's +467% move says it certainly is). https://t.co/pWMfAubvYN
M&A Surge: AVNS, GSAT Deals Lead $13B Activity
Today's M&A and SPAC notes $AVNS to be acquired by American Industrial Partners for $25.00 cash per share, 72.1% premium, $1.3 billion $GSAT to be acquired by $AMZN for $90.00 in cash + stock, 23.5% premium, $11.7 billion $SZZL announced a business combination...
Private Credit Defaults Far Lower than Market Fears
Goldman's David Solomon providing some much needed rational thought around private credit: - GFC saw defaults peak at 10% - recoveries were 50% - trough cumulative loss of 5%-6% vs coupons of 9%-10% For context, listed BDCs are currently pricing in defaults of more...
Private Credit May Calm, Not Amplify, Corporate Cycles
How dare these academics posit such a narrative violation: "Contrary to the concern that private credit could amplify credit supply shocks, our results indicate that private credit may dampen the corporate credit cycle"
All Factors Down, Hedge Fund Proxy Plummets, Shorts Rise
Value, quality, and momentum factors all down today. Long short hedge fund proxy declined -188bps. The only thing that was up was high short interest. Not healthy. https://t.co/nCK12nnBAU
Two Major Acquisitions Announced, Two SPAC Deals Terminated
Today's M&A and SPAC notes $SES.to to be acquired by $GFL.to for $4.95 cash + 0.3356x shares, 16.8% premium, $6.4 billion $LEG to be acquired by $SGI for 0.1455x shares, 13.7% premium, $2.5 billion $ETHM / The Ether Machine deal terminated $SPAC.to / Cube...
Covered Calls Aren’t Income, They’re Position Reductions
Selling a covered call does not "generate income". It represents cash proceeds from reducing your position (the functional equivalent to selling), and paying a massive bid-ask spread to do so. https://t.co/evuVehJaQT
Second Inflation Wave Revives Commodity Prices
My latest monthly client memo: The Second Wave of Inflation and the Commodity Comeback https://t.co/4L7dEvdDn4 https://t.co/eRCYHTHapt
Commodities Futures Add Value to Balanced Portfolios
If you look at the data, investing in commodities futures makes sense within the context of a total portfolio approach. https://t.co/KYqknJKQ54
Lowest‑P/E Stocks Explode: Micron Up 520% Year‑to‑Date
The cheapest stock in America is up 520% in a year. The 10 lowest-P/E stocks are up 70% YoY. Micron has the lowest P/E in the S&P 500 at just 4.4x. Disclosure: long $MU https://t.co/W2gEcOm2By
SPAC DAT Merger Ends, PIPE Investors Breathe Relief
PIPE investors breathe a sigh of relief as we get the first big SPAC DAT merger termination. Dynamix $ETHM terminates its business combination with The Ether Machine, which is awkward after already changing its ticker. Also, who gets the $50 million break...
Private Equity: The Kid Who Hides Trouble Until Inevitable
Remember when you were a kid and got in trouble at school but held off telling your mom for as long as possible, delaying the inevitable? That's private equity today.
Massive WBD, KVUE Block Trades Signal Merger Arb Alert
$198mm $WBD and $200.4mm $KVUE block trades today at the close Merger arb PM got a tap on the shoulder today? https://t.co/tx0WOC2arI
M&A Spree Sees Premiums up to 80%
Today's M&A and SPAC notes $GTWO.to to be acquired by $GMIN.to for 0.212x shares + CVR + Spinco, 79.7% premium, $3.0 billion $WSR to be acquired by $ARES for $19.00 cash per share, 26.5% premium, $1.7 billion $ASRT to be acquired by Garda...
Discounted BDC Seeks Dilution, Vote Likely to Fail
A BDC can only issue shares below NAV if it has prior shareholder authorization. This shareholder approval for dilutive share issuance is required annually. In the current market environment, most BDCs with good corporate governance are aggressively buying back shares at...
