Three Major M&A/SPAC Deals Unveiled Today
Today's M&A and SPAC notes $TALK to be acquired by $UHS for $5.25 cash per share, 10.3% premium, $835 million $PLMK announced a business combination with Controlled Thermal Resources $ALIS announced a business combination with GoodVision https://t.co/m3Y3HvkUbt
Rising Energy Prices Lock in Inflation, Halt Rate Cuts
With this move in energy and commodities prices, inflation will have a 5-handle in no time. And with that, rate cuts will be firmly off the table this year. Due to the upcoming pain for the U.S consumer, I believe we'll...
Canadian Unicorn Sale Highlights Capital Drain to U.S., Abu Dhabi
Calgary-based tech unicorn CoolIT is speculated to be for sale for more than $3 billion. All of this value creation from this Canadian business will go to the U.S. (KKR) and Abu Dhabi (Mubadala). Sadly, this is par for the course for...
AI-Powered Merger Arbitrage Superforecaster Launched with GPT‑5.4
Balyasny has built an AI agent called Merger Arbitrage Superforecaster, with GPT‑5.4 as its reasoning engine. Merger arbitrage is one segment of investing that greatly benefits from AI. https://t.co/kQPsOW5Ww3
Secondary Market Signals Private Credit Defaults Over 20%
The thing is, the current secondary market prices of liquid private credit vehicles (BDCs) are implying a default rate north of 20%, far in excess of anything experienced during the GFC and greater than UBS’s draconian “worst case” scenario
SPAC CEO Misappropriates Funds, Refuses Repayment, Faces Prison
A SPAC CEO was caught with her hand in the cookie jar, taking money from the working capital account that she was not authorized to. When the board requested she repay the funds, she refused. While the stolen funds are a fraction...
Private Credit Redemptions Stay Under 5% Cap Amid Bear Market
Despite the bear market in private credit, negative press, and poor performance of some BlackRock funds, the quarterly redemption requests for its non-traded BDC came in below the 5% cap. https://t.co/36ABXJ1FCK
Chamath's SPAC Commands 10.5% NAV Premium, Out
Believe it or not but @chamath's current SPAC, $AEXA, trades at the highest NAV premium of all pre-deal SPACs (by a long shot). $AEXA trades at a 10.5% premium to NAV, while the next highest valued are below a 2.5% premium. Despite...
Delayed Coverage of $20 Million Loan Write‑down Emerges
Not sure why the write-down of a $20 million loan that was disclosed nearly two months ago is news but here we are https://t.co/lfuuXrqdYg
Pasqal‑Bleichroeder Deal Targets $2B Valuation by 2026
Pasqal / Bleichroeder Acquisition II deal overview Quantum computing company $2.0 billion enterprise value Closing H2 2026 PR: https://t.co/Y8kjd8LJdO IR deck: https://t.co/27uxUkWA9t Disclosure: Long $BBCQ shares + warrants in $ARB.to https://t.co/EfgkoWpFiI
AI Poised to Upend Software, Jeopardizing Private Equity
The Extinction of Private Equity? My latest memo on the potential of AI to disrupt the software industry and its effect on private equity: https://t.co/GMi44JG2PQ https://t.co/oZYyMnfppx
PE‑
Major narrative violation but a private equity-owned SaaS company, financed by *gasp* private credit, is rapidly building out its AI capabilities. https://t.co/DOGvFQyXdN
Software Buyout Lending Shows Near‑zero Default
No wonder direct lending to software buyouts was so popular. Out of 300+ loans that Blue Owl has made since inception, only one has defaulted. That one loan was to finance Vista Equity's $3.5 billion buyout of Pluralsight in 2021. Blue Owl...
Allocators Swap BCRED Redemptions for Discounted BXSL
Allocators are funding a logical switch trade: Redeeming BCRED at NAV to buy $BXSL at an -11% discount to NAV. Look for this dynamic to occur between every other private credit fund with both a non-traded and listed BDC.
Musk's X, XAI to Repay $
*ELON MUSK'S X, XAI PLAN TO PAY BACK $17.5 BILLION OF DEBT Looks like private credit* is good again *actually BSL but the media gets it wrong all the time so who cares
Massive M&A Spree: Premium Deals Across Sectors
Today's M&A notes - $WBD to be acquired by $PSKY for $31.00, 147.2% premium, $110bn - $AES to be acquired by GIP / EQT / CalPERS / QIA for $15.00, 35.5% premium, $33.4bn - $ASCU.to to be acquired by $HBM.to for 0.242x shares,...
Private Credit Crash Already Evident in BDC NAV Discounts
Many calling/hoping for a crash in private credit. While loan performance has mostly been ok, secondary prices tell a different story. A crash has already happened in the listed BDC market, with NAV discounts previously only seen during Covid and the GFC,...
Record $7 B Reverse Break Fee Tops All Deals
We have a new record, folks. $PSKY's now friendly acquisition of $WBD comes with a $7 billion reverse break fee - the largest in history. https://t.co/GNoyWI0tl0
Private Credit’s Worst Deals: Aggregators, Roll‑ups, Soccer, Education
The worst segments of private credit (hint: it's not software*): Amazon aggregators Dental roll-ups Veterinary roll-ups Soccer teams Education *except for Pluralsight, which may be the worst private credit deal of all time
SPAC IPOs Raise $10B in First Two Months
Just two months into the year and there have been 51 SPAC IPOs, which have raised a total of more than $10 billion, exceeding the total blank check IPO issuance in all of 2024. https://t.co/qkcICZwFet
Private Credit BDCs Plunge From Premium to Deep Discount
In just 12 months, private credit went from red hot to ice cold One year ago, the average BDC traded at a +6.2% premium to NAV Now, the average BDC trades at nearly a -20% discount to NAV, a level only exceeded...
Major M&A Moves: NATL, KORE, RNA/NVS Deals Announced
Today's M&A notes $NATL to be acquired by $BCO for $30.00 cash + 0.1574x shares, 22.6% premium, $6.6 billion $KORE to be acquired by Searchlight Capital / Abry Partners for $9.25 cash per share, 132.4% premium, $726 million $RNA / $NVS deal closed https://t.co/J7D2HirSUh
Warner Backs Paramount's Superior Offer, NLFX Should Exit
*WARNER BROS. SAYS PARAMOUNT OFFER IS 'SUPERIOR PROPOSAL' Seems like a good opportunity for $NLFX to graciously bow out of the $WBD bidding war and take the break fee paid for by $PSKY
Blackstone's Medallia Loan Downgrade Erases $5B Equity
Surprised no journalists have read $BXSL's 10-K filed this am, but I'll front run them with the story: Blackstone marked the Medallia loan at 78 in Q4, down from 82 in Q3. It's safe to say the PE sponsor's (and co-investors') $5...
SpaceX Stake Lifts Blue Owl NAV Amid Credit Slump
Why is the Blue Owl Tech BDC's NAV going UP when private credit sentiment is so bad? While it is primarily a private credit fund, the BDC does have a small equity portfolio, which mostly consists of a large chunk of...
Three AI‑Resilient Stocks Offer Bullish Opportunities
I joined @BNNBloomberg this morning to discuss Stocks Resistant to AI Disruption, where I gave the bull case for 3 equities that we are long. We also chatted about "AI agent vs AI agent combat" Here's the link: https://t.co/ZhP0KSAQtz https://t.co/kvEc8YnfTy
M&A Spree Sees Premiums up to 79%, One Discount
Today's M&A and SPAC notes $ACLX to be acquired by GILD for $115 cash + CVR worth up to $5, 79.4% premium, $7.8 billion $VRE to be acquired by Affinius Capital / Vista Hill Partners for $19.00 cash per share, 23.2% premium,...
Wells Fargo Confirms No Hidden Incentives in $1.4B Loan Sale
Finian O'Shea of Wells Fargo just asked this question on this morning's $OBDC conference call and mgmt confirmed nothing behind the scenes, no bonus economics or shenanigans behind the $1.4bn private credit loan sale at par value to 4 institutional...
SPAC Activity Slumps: 21 IPOs, Just One Deal
Month-to-date SPAC statistics: IPOs: 21 Definitive agreements: 1 As Jerry Seinfeld said, "That's not gonna be good for anybody."
Pentwater Leads Merger Arbitrage with $10.6 B Book
Largest merger arbitrage books (by 13-F*) Pentwater: $10.6 billion HBK: $8.1 billion Millennium: $7.8 billion Balyasny: $5.3 billion Fidelity: $4.4 billion Citadel: $2.9 billion Qube: $2.7 billion AQR: $2.4 billion Glazer: $2.3 billion Magnetar: $2.1 billion h/t Cantor
Major M&A Moves: IHS, MCW Deals and New IPO
Today's M&A and SPAC notes $IHS to be acquired by MTN Group for $8.50 cash, 3.3% premium, $6.2 billion $MCW to be acquired by Leonard Green & Partners for $7.00 cash, 16.5% premium, $3.1 billion $POLE / StoreDot deal terminated $AACIU $225 million IPO https://t.co/ugQ3GsLFCw
Massive M&A Premiums: MASI, KW, ZIM Deals
Today's M&A notes $MASI to be acquired by $DHR for $180.00 cash, 38.3% premium, $9.9 billion $KW to be acquired by $FFH.to for $10.90 cash, 45.9% premium, $6.5 billion $ZIM to be acquired by $HLAGF for $35.00 cash, 125.8% premium, $4.2 billion https://t.co/ayupP5Rv2J
Walmart's EBITDA Multiple Jumps From 6x to 23x
What a re-rating for Walmart stock. From 6x EBITDA in 2011 to 23x today. Sometimes buying good businesses cheaply just works. https://t.co/ORuNNv1HBY
Unclear if Gains Stem From Profit or Restructuring
Unsure whether this will be because they're in the money or via an out-of-court restructuring
