Boards Can't Unilaterally Cancel Mergers; Shareholder Vote Required
I am dumbfounded that an institutional investor could think that a board of directors can just terminate a definitive merger agreement. I am even more shocked that they would admit this publicly in the media. For the uninitiated, a merger agreement can only be terminated from the failure to obtain required approvals / closing conditions prior to the outside date. Other less likely termination triggers include a MAE or a superior proposal. We went through this exercise during the Twitter / Elon Musk saga four years ago. In the case of the Foran Mining / Eldorado Gold, if $ELD shareholders don't like it, they can vote against the deal, as it is conditional upon a majority vote of the acquiror's shareholders.
BDC Discounts Suggest Default Rates 5‑10× GFC Levels
Historical recovery rates for middle market direct lending is 65% to 85%. Currently, if one assumes this recovery rate holds, listed BDCs trading at an average -25% discount to NAV imply a 34% to 79% cumulative default rate, which is 5x...
Software Loans Keep Default Rates Below 2% Amid AI Panic
AI fears have flipped the direct lending business on its head. Historically, software has exhibited the lowest default rate in private credit at 1.4%, below the average of 2-3%. https://t.co/Ff7NdOcqJI
Conflict Launched Without Planning or Analysis
It's as if zero planning or thoughtful analysis occurred prior to launching the conflict. https://t.co/agSNYIA2oJ
BDC's Top Holding: SpaceX Stock at 30% Discount
Wait until they find out that a certain BDC’s largest position is SpaceX stock and its trading -30% below NAV
Brookfield Leads $9B Deal as M&A Spree Continues
Today's M&A notes $BLX.to to be acquired by Brookfield / La Caisse for $37.25 cash per share, 31.8% premium, $9.0 billion $TERN to be acquired by MRK for $53.00 cash per share, 6.0% premium, $5.7 billion $JHG / Trian bumped bid by 6.1%...
AI Agents Deliver Rapid, Superior Merger Arbitrage Insights
The $TERN / $MRK deal announced this morning provides a good case study on how Accelerate's AI agents quickly analyze a merger arbitrage investment opportunity: - Equity research agent: Paste target ticker. Agent generates an initiating coverage report on the target. -...
Private Credit's Circular Lending: Cliffwater Borrows From Itself
The circular relationships within the private credit ecosystem are fascinating. For example, Cliffwater invests in Carlyle's private credit fund. On the other end, Carlyle's private credit fund lends to Cliffwater (first lien loan shown below). So it appears that ultimately, Cliffwater is lending...
OpenAI's 17.5% Guaranteed Return Claim Seems Dubious
I have trouble believing that OpenAI is offering PE firms a "guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%" on preferred shares. This is the rate offered by highly distressed firms or those in contentious bankruptcies - not a firm operating as a going...
Political Clout Now Trumps Antitrust in M&A
There is a new meta for merger arbitrageurs, such that traditional antitrust analysis is outweighed by the acquiror's political clout. In particular, if the acquiror employs Mike Davis, their M&A deal is getting done. https://t.co/B0QuYUxxv2
Cut Fees, Buy Back Shares, Avoid Nontraded BDCs
My thoughts on how private credit mangers can rebuild investor confidence in this weekend's @barronsonline: First, they should cut fees: "A lower fee structure would go a long way toward improving managers’ standing with investors". Investors will return to the asset...
Media Overlooks the Growing Syndicated Loan Market
It is as if the media is unaware of the broadly syndicated loan market https://t.co/7VASp4fFsN
Iran War Drives Market
Due to the war in Iran and the resulting inflationary effects, the market is now pricing in zero rate cuts from the Fed this year (in contrast to the previously forecast two rate cuts). Moreover, the market is now forecasting a...
Prorating Vs. Gating: Different Tender Offer Mechanics
Prorating investors in a standard 5% quarterly tender offer is not the same as gating or halting redemptions. https://t.co/p9tLyxgsOi
AGs Sue, Deal Closes Same Day: TGNA Winners
State AGs sue to block the merger in the am, deal closes in the pm. Wild ride for $TGNA shareholders - congrats to those who held for $22.00. https://t.co/hroSGkpRRo
Iran War Slashes US M&A Deals by Half
The war in Iran has had a significant impact on the merger market. Month-to-date, just 6 public US M&A deals have been announced (worth a total of $56 billion), down -65% in number and -44% in value compared to last month....
Liquidity, Not Credit, Drives Crises; Public BDCs Undervalued
If you read one thing on private credit today, make it Sixth Street's investor letter. The highlights: “Crises don’t happen because of credit issues, they happen because of liquidity issues. "If you believe in efficient markets, public BDCs trading at significant discounts...
IRR Overstates Private Equity Returns, Shows 20% ≈ 12%
The most important concept for allocators to understand in private equity is that IRRs are numbers used in marketing and not representative of investor retuns In the below example, a 20% "IRR" is actually equal to an 11.9% annualized return (and...
Bill Dudley’s Market Mix‑up Highlights Investor Confusion
If Bill Dudley still confuses First Brands and Tricolor with private credit, literally six months after all market participants realized they were in the broadly syndicated loan and asset backed finance markets, then what hope do regular people have? https://t.co/aA33Nc1928
Canada’s Housing Market Plummets 20%, Quietly Absorbed by Stable Finance
Canadian residential real estate is down -20% from its peak in 2022, a crash in prices worse than the U.S. in 2008. But no one is talking about it, primarily because the financial system is well-functioning (so far), as creditors do...
LENSAR Ends Alcon Merger Amid FTC Opposition
Kudos sir - this was a good tweet LENSAR Announces Termination of Merger Agreement with Alcon Research "We understand that the Federal Trade Commission intends to seek to enjoin the acquisition" $LSNR $ALC
Private Equity’s Marketing Masks True Volatility and Returns
One of the main reasons behind the significant backlash against private equity and private credit is some of the ways they were marketed are misleading: - Volatility laundering: Private equity claiming vol of 8% when it's actually 25%+. Private credit claiming...
MFIC Chooses Discounted Share Buybacks Over New Loans
Apollo's listed BDC, $MFIC, trades at a -27.2% discount to NAV with non-accruals of 2.6%, PIK of 4.8%, and software exposure of 11.4% While it doesn't stand out via its market average NAV discount, it does stand out on capital allocation....
Abra's $846M Acquisition Highlights Digital Asset Wealth Management
Abra / New Providence Acquisition III deal overview Digital asset wealth management platform $846.3 million enterprise value Symbol $ABRX PR: https://t.co/PKIWSdVOsf IR deck: https://t.co/4K0equHQqD Disclosure: Long $NPAC shares + warrants in $ARB.to https://t.co/2X7jjFOvzd
PE Firms Eye Anthropic AI to Boost Portfolio Innovation
The market is counting out private equity-owned (and private credit-financed) companies, even though they could be the firms that pursue AI most aggressively. A consortium of PE firms are in talks to integrate Anthropic's AI into their portfolio companies. https://t.co/ajG448PXen
Cliffwater Drama Yields Just $0.7B Net Inflow
While the headlines around Cliffwater have been apocalyptic, here's how fund flows are looking for Q1: - redemptions received: $4.5 billion - amount repurchased in tender: $2.3 billion - expected new commitments: $3.0 billion All of this drama for $0.7 billion of net...
Liquidity for Forced Direct‑Loan Sellers Set to Outperform
Good take below. I agree that a strategy providing liquidity to forced sellers of direct loans, due to elevated outflows, will be one of the best performing investment strategies over the next 3 years.
Merger Arbitrage Yields Still Low, No Arbageddon Yet
While we're seeing panic in certain areas of the market (private credit), it has not translated to merger arbitrage, where the current average yield of 10.8% is far below a March 2020-type environment. Once we see arbitrage yields nearing 20%, then...
Critical EDGAR
The world's most important website is in shambles. What the heck is going on with EDGAR? https://t.co/pKsJXrmAal
SPACs Need Mergers, Not Just IPOs
My thoughts on the SPAC market today: “Not having mergers is certainly a negative because that’s what ultimately drives the entire sector. There’s no point in having a bunch of IPOs if you’re not going to see any material deal...
Testing if Best SPAC 2 Beats Its Predecessor
Excited to see whether Best SPAC 2 truly is better than Best SPAC 1 https://t.co/UZsTF1gaFs
Sponsor-Backed SaaS Leads Agent
Narrative violation: Sponsor-backed SaaS companies are becoming the leaders in agentic AI. Seems unlikely that the Zendesk 1L loan is worth $0. https://t.co/WTPW4ywh8V
HLEND’s Tiny AUM Impact Doesn’t Justify BlackRock Dip
The negative spin from the media and doomers on HLEND affecting $BLK stock price is actually really stupid for a couple of reasons: "Hlend didn’t need to draw down on any liquidity to pay for the 5% redemption. It had more...
Pershing Square Launches $5B Closed‑end IPO, Offers Management Shares
Pershing Square has filed for a $5 billion IPO of a closed-end fund, Pershing Square USA $PSUS. Additionally, Pershing Square Inc. will go public under the symbol $PS. Buyers of the closed-end fund IPO will also receive shares in the management company. Interesting...
Questioning Zero‑Marking of Jiffy Lube Private Credit Loans
"Golub Capital will act as sole administrative agent and joint lead arranger on the financing. Ares Credit funds and MidCap Financial will also act as joint lead arrangers on the financing." Should we be marking the private credit loans to Jiffy...
Three Major M&A/SPAC Deals Unveiled Today
Today's M&A and SPAC notes $TALK to be acquired by $UHS for $5.25 cash per share, 10.3% premium, $835 million $PLMK announced a business combination with Controlled Thermal Resources $ALIS announced a business combination with GoodVision https://t.co/m3Y3HvkUbt
Rising Energy Prices Lock in Inflation, Halt Rate Cuts
With this move in energy and commodities prices, inflation will have a 5-handle in no time. And with that, rate cuts will be firmly off the table this year. Due to the upcoming pain for the U.S consumer, I believe we'll...
Canadian Unicorn Sale Highlights Capital Drain to U.S., Abu Dhabi
Calgary-based tech unicorn CoolIT is speculated to be for sale for more than $3 billion. All of this value creation from this Canadian business will go to the U.S. (KKR) and Abu Dhabi (Mubadala). Sadly, this is par for the course for...
AI-Powered Merger Arbitrage Superforecaster Launched with GPT‑5.4
Balyasny has built an AI agent called Merger Arbitrage Superforecaster, with GPT‑5.4 as its reasoning engine. Merger arbitrage is one segment of investing that greatly benefits from AI. https://t.co/kQPsOW5Ww3
Secondary Market Signals Private Credit Defaults Over 20%
The thing is, the current secondary market prices of liquid private credit vehicles (BDCs) are implying a default rate north of 20%, far in excess of anything experienced during the GFC and greater than UBS’s draconian “worst case” scenario
SPAC CEO Misappropriates Funds, Refuses Repayment, Faces Prison
A SPAC CEO was caught with her hand in the cookie jar, taking money from the working capital account that she was not authorized to. When the board requested she repay the funds, she refused. While the stolen funds are a fraction...
Private Credit Redemptions Stay Under 5% Cap Amid Bear Market
Despite the bear market in private credit, negative press, and poor performance of some BlackRock funds, the quarterly redemption requests for its non-traded BDC came in below the 5% cap. https://t.co/36ABXJ1FCK
Chamath's SPAC Commands 10.5% NAV Premium, Out
Believe it or not but @chamath's current SPAC, $AEXA, trades at the highest NAV premium of all pre-deal SPACs (by a long shot). $AEXA trades at a 10.5% premium to NAV, while the next highest valued are below a 2.5% premium. Despite...
Delayed Coverage of $20 Million Loan Write‑down Emerges
Not sure why the write-down of a $20 million loan that was disclosed nearly two months ago is news but here we are https://t.co/lfuuXrqdYg
Pasqal‑Bleichroeder Deal Targets $2B Valuation by 2026
Pasqal / Bleichroeder Acquisition II deal overview Quantum computing company $2.0 billion enterprise value Closing H2 2026 PR: https://t.co/Y8kjd8LJdO IR deck: https://t.co/27uxUkWA9t Disclosure: Long $BBCQ shares + warrants in $ARB.to https://t.co/EfgkoWpFiI
AI Poised to Upend Software, Jeopardizing Private Equity
The Extinction of Private Equity? My latest memo on the potential of AI to disrupt the software industry and its effect on private equity: https://t.co/GMi44JG2PQ https://t.co/oZYyMnfppx
PE‑
Major narrative violation but a private equity-owned SaaS company, financed by *gasp* private credit, is rapidly building out its AI capabilities. https://t.co/DOGvFQyXdN
Software Buyout Lending Shows Near‑zero Default
No wonder direct lending to software buyouts was so popular. Out of 300+ loans that Blue Owl has made since inception, only one has defaulted. That one loan was to finance Vista Equity's $3.5 billion buyout of Pluralsight in 2021. Blue Owl...
Allocators Swap BCRED Redemptions for Discounted BXSL
Allocators are funding a logical switch trade: Redeeming BCRED at NAV to buy $BXSL at an -11% discount to NAV. Look for this dynamic to occur between every other private credit fund with both a non-traded and listed BDC.
Musk's X, XAI to Repay $
*ELON MUSK'S X, XAI PLAN TO PAY BACK $17.5 BILLION OF DEBT Looks like private credit* is good again *actually BSL but the media gets it wrong all the time so who cares