Fed's Rate‑Cut Dilemma: Weak Economy vs Rising Inflation
Normally a weaker economy might lead the Fed to cut rates. But if inflation is also rising, rate cuts risk adding fuel to the price problem. Two goals, one instrument, lousy trade-off.
IRS Cuts Act as Tax Breaks for the Hidden Wealthy
Here’s the thing—especially on April 15: cutting the IRS isn't some abstract budget trim. It's a tax cut delivered through weaker enforcement. And it mostly goes to people with the most scope to hide income. https://t.co/HAu6RDag6P
War's Hidden Costs Hit Americans Irreversibly, Even After Ceasefire
The question that I get asked most often is: Even if the ceasefire holds, has the war already imposed large irreversible costs on Americans? So I made a video digging into these issues. The stakes may be much larger than you...
Blockading Ports Isn’t Strategy; It’s Self‑defeating.
2025: blockading American ports. 2026: blockading Iranian ports. Same move, different flag. If your grand strategy is just “less trade for everyone,” mate, that’s not chess. That’s flipping the board. https://t.co/Re8HN1bIye
Trump's Moves Price Chaos in Market Volatility
"Every time Trump escalates, markets go down. Every time he deescalates, markets go up." That's not a mystery. It's a price tag on chaos. https://t.co/i552NfcSzT
Markets Find Relief, Not Optimism, in Reduced Conflict Risk
In English: markets aren't cheering conflict. They're reacting to a reduced chance of a much bigger mess. That's not optimism. That's relief. https://t.co/xyuf645L9H
Economists Embrace Uncertainty When Leaders Behave Inconsistently
An economist’s job isn’t to pretend certainty where none exists. If the key decision-maker is wildly inconsistent, the right forecast comes with a very wide error bar.
Defense Spending Costs You: Every Dollar Means a Tax
"If you’re gonna spend another dollar, that means you’re gonna have to tax another dollar." That’s the whole game here. More defense spending isn’t free. It’s a bill with your name on it. https://t.co/bxiqmzZNCB
Oil's Hidden Role Powers Every Corner of Economy
"Oil is an absolutely essential commodity that's built into our economy in all sorts of ways that are not immediately obvious." https://t.co/cLvjjzdJDU
Inflation Expectations Become a Self‑fulfilling Macroeconomics Feedback Loop
Inflation expectations are the group chat of macroeconomics: once everyone thinks prices are going up, everyone starts acting like prices are going up, and then... surprise... prices go up. https://t.co/eXVIDDjJ4V
Molly Jong-Fast Unpacks Trump Economy, Trade War, Truth Crisis
Today's pod: The brilliant @mollyjongfast had me on Fast Politics to discuss the Trump economy, the trade war, the war war, and the war on truth. https://youtu.be/-2poUJZP_fQ?si=VtfGr80vGj_Xa7JA
Energy Self‑sufficiency Shifts Oil Shock Costs to Consumers
We’ve seen this movie before, but not on the same technology. In the 1970s, an oil shock made America poorer overall. Today we’re far more energy self-sufficient, so the big story is less national collapse and more who gets stuck...
Policy Blunders: Self‑Inflicted Economic Shock via Rake
Usually economic shocks are called things like pandemics or oil embargoes. This version is more: bloke walks into the policy room, sees a rake, and steps on it repeatedly. https://t.co/Lzh723GjsJ
War Data Reveals Soaring Inflation, Explained in Two Minutes
We just got the first hard economic data showing the effects of the war, and it shows inflation surging. Lemme take two minutes to explain what it all means while talking into a baby koala's butt. https://t.co/uYzeWmSssj
Stagnant Wages Can't Keep Pace with Rising Prices
The reason it feels hard to get ahead right now is because it's hard to get ahead right now. Wages are barely keeping up with prices, and prices are just starting to heat up. https://t.co/Lb4BnQl6Un
