Energy Spikes Lift CPI 0.9%; Core Steadies at 0.2%
An eye-popping 0.9% *monthly* rise in the CPI was driven mainly by rising energy prices. Core inflation rose a more sedate 0.2% in March. https://t.co/547aq6hkvo
Exploring Gambling's Societal Impact with Danny Funt
I'll be at my local indy boostore (@LiteratiBkstore) this afternoon, talking with the amazing @dannyfunt about his new book "Everybody Loses." He's the most serious voice around asking exploring the consequences of our dramatic shift toward gambling. Join us! https://t.co/4edIc0eHhE
Markets Rally When President De‑Escalates, War Hurts Business
It's just an utterly relentless pattern: Every time the President de-escalates in the Middle East, the stockmarket in the U.S. rejoices. It's like they think war is bad for business. https://t.co/tuQpxlqjGB
AI Cuts Entry Work, Threatens Future Senior Talent
This isn't just a story about lawyers. It's a story about career ladders. If AI wipes out the entry-level tasks, firms save money today but may lose the training ground that creates senior talent tomorrow.
Iran Deal Won’t Reverse Permanent Economic Damage
Even a quick Iran deal won't undo the damage already done. Stock losses, years of elevated oil prices, and a $350B defense budget increase that quietly translates to $3–4K in added taxes per household. The economy doesn't just snap back. Some of...
Iran Deal Won’t Reverse Last Years’ Economic Damage
Even a quick Iran deal won't undo the damage already done. Stock losses, years of elevated oil prices, and a $350B defense budget increase that quietly translates to $3–4K in added taxes per household. The economy doesn't just snap back. Some of...
Predicting Stocks Is Futile; Iran War Harms Economy
Anyone claiming they know where stock prices are headed is lying to you. More importantly: the idea that war with Iran is somehow good for the American economy is just nonsense. Stock prices are down. Grocery and gas prices are already...
Futures Verdict: President’s Weekend Bender Hurts Business
If you were wondering whether the President’s weekend bender helped or hurt the long-term interest of American business, futures markets just opened, and delivered their verdict. https://t.co/YNWdATAMmc
National Debt Is About Sustainability, Not Household Limits
Public debt isn’t like household debt. A family can hit a hard stop. A country can refinance, tax, grow, and revisit its budget year after year. The issue is sustainability, not a single scary number. https://t.co/T4l1gg78Xk
Economist Warns: War's Hidden Costs Outweigh Oil Prices
Yes, I'm an economist. And yes, I'll talk about oil and gas prices. But still, I wonder whether (and why) we're avoiding talking about the bigger costs of war.
Is America Really Insolvent? A Simple Economic Breakdown
Is the United States insolvent? Lemme youtubesplain: https://t.co/6Re8YEXmWA I'm trying a few new things on my YouTube channel -- trying to make economics more accessible -- and so I'm also really interested in your feedback.
White House Policies Hit Your Wallet Directly
Policy feels abstract right up until it lands in your budget. That’s the point: the stakes are real because White House decisions can show up as pricier gas, a bigger health bill, and higher prices on imported goods. https://t.co/JkEALd3F4O
U.S. Labor Market Slows to Low‑Hire, Low‑Fire Cycle
The labor market can be "roughly steady" with a lotta hiring matched by a lotta firing, or few fires matched by few hires. The U.S. is moving into a low hire-low fire equilibrium, which really hurts folks—the young, those (re-)entering...
Recession Risk Doubles Normal, yet Stays Under 50%
If you're asking whether 30% recession risk is bad, compare it with the right baseline. Normal is about 14%. So yes, we're still below 50%—but we're also roughly double normal. Seems troubling. https://t.co/2dO5Qjmi3q
Defense Secretary's War‑Time Investments Demand Immediate Resignation
In what world is it okay for the Defense Secretary to make multi-million dollar investments in defense companies: a) Ever; b) Just before launching a war. FT has the scoop: https://t.co/ulRcXTH2Vp In a functional democracy, he would offer his resignation tonight. https://t.co/013BL2pZEB
Airlines
Airlines going bust over oil prices? Unlikely. Airlines plan for oil shocks. Or at least competent ones do. Fuel prices are a classic business risk, not a meteor strike. So the likely story is lower profits and fewer flights, not mass...
Iran Conflict Enters Fifth Week, Exceeding White House Timeline
We are now in the fifth week of the Iran war (which the White House assured us would last 4-5 weeks).
Economic Weakness Erodes U.S. Military Superiority
Bit of a deep dive with a handsome economist (me) on how America's economic vulnerability undermines its military advantage. https://t.co/WZQ5ou95bM
Immigrants Expand Demand, Creating New Jobs
Immigrants weren’t just filling existing jobs; they were helping create them. That’s Econ 101: jobs are not a fixed pie. More people means more customers, more demand, more businesses expanding, and yes, more hiring. https://t.co/TuC32PJmUk
Weekend Podcast Breaks Down Iran War's Economic Impact
What better way to begin the weekend with a podcast exploring -- hopefully in plain English -- the economic consequences of the war with Iran. https://t.co/e6xz6fn92u
Even Kids Discover the U.S. Has a Congress
I was just helping my kid with their high school Gov homework, and was astonished to learn the United States has a Congress.
Unconstitutional Tariffs Deliver Costs Without Revenue—A Lose‑Lose
A wry aside (inspired by @stanveuger): Implementing unconstitutional tariffs ensures you get all of the distortions and costs of tariffs, and (assuming refunds are required) none of the revenue. Lose lose.
Prolonged Shock Turns Temporary Crisis Into Lasting Economic Damage
"If this lasts longer than the four to five weeks that the president promised... this could do real and lasting damage." That's the whole game: duration turns a shock into an economic problem. https://t.co/dmeAL0v5ib
Federal Employee Satisfaction Halves, Signaling Systemic Collapse
Federal worker job satisfaction: 69% → 33% in one year. Willingness to recommend their workplace: 67% → 35%. "What we're seeing here is not a wobble or a rough patch or growing pains. It's a collapse." https://t.co/e0xnvkrd6c
Federal Workforce Crisis Revealed by Alarming Data
Once I got started on this piece, the numbers started talking to me, and by the end they were screaming. So I feel like I've got to share it with you: The Federal Employee Crisis Nobody's Talking About. https://t.co/6rdnuvxTW9
Oil Futures Curve Tracks Middle East News Shifts
I find the oil futures curve to be a useful way of keeping track of news out of the Middle East, as it provides a useful metric for assessing what's changing, and how much. https://t.co/Hl3XzfUEfP
President's Anti‑wind Rant Sounds Like Grandpa Simpson
"The president's case against wind are literally the rantings of an old man. I've seen grandpa Simpson make more sense." https://t.co/3rAbLKpVqe
Iran's Strait of Hormuz Leverage Ensures Persistent Economic Power
“Iran holds a lot of cards with the Strait Of Hormuz.” That’s the quote to remember. Geography can be economic power, and “that vulnerability remains pretty much forever.” https://t.co/OoCOYi8LMc
Trump's Aggression Drags Markets; Restraint Lifts Them
The Iran war has in one respect followed a similar pattern to the trade war: Every time Trump leaned into his aggressive instincts, markets fell. This morning we see the opposite: When he backs off his aggressive instincts, markets rise....
Growth Slump Extends Through 2026‑2027, Hits Jobs
“Growth is lower, not just for one quarter. It stays lower throughout all of 2026 and all of 2027.” In English: this isn’t a blip. It’s a persistent hit to jobs, incomes, and the economy’s trajectory.
Markets Aggregate Opinions with Cash, Revealing Future Expectations
Markets are useful for the same reason polls are useful: not because they’re flawless, but because they aggregate lots of views. The difference is investors back their opinions with cash. Stocks aren’t GDP, but they do reveal what people expect...
Politicians Hide True War Costs—Hundreds of Billions Missing
When politicians quote war costs, they're usually giving you the Pentagon's grocery bill, not the real economic damage. Oil shocks, lost jobs, delayed investment - the true cost isn't billions, it's hundreds of billions. Always ask: what are they not counting? https://t.co/Q56IHqdfvB
War's Hidden Cost: $2‑5k Less per Family
Here’s the thing: wars have budget costs, and they have economic costs. The first shows up in government accounts. The second shows up as less national income. Spread across households, that’s roughly $2,000 to $5,000 per family. https://t.co/yrD2nUbrzW
S&P Drops 5.4% YTD, Losses Concentrated in Two Weeks
Markets have turned. S&P down 5.4% YTD — all of that loss in the last two weeks. War premium showing up fast. Watch this space. https://t.co/D3wvQr7z9M
Trump's Iran War Costs Outpace Tariff Revenue
Putting the fiscal cost of the Iran war in context. $200 billion > $194.9 billion, which means that Trump is planning on spending more on the Iran war than he took in with his tariffs which raised tons of revenue....
Oil Futures Signal Long-Term Impact From Iran War
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
Fed's Latest Move Hints at Future Policy Amid Iran, Tariffs
Let me be your Fed whisperer. What the Fed decided, what we can infer about it's next steps, how Iran and tariffs factored in, and what it all means for you. https://t.co/3JC756KIAH
Powell Warns White House, Asserts Fed’s Crucial Leverage
Fed Chair Jay Powell fired a warning shot today, reminding the White House that he holds some pretty important cards. Yes, it's drama, melodrama and soap opera. But it also really matters. And I admire how Powell has handled himself here....
Fed Holds Steady, Awaits Middle East Clarity
The Fed's stance appears to have changed very little. A simple interpretation: The Fed wants to wait and see what's happening in the Middle East. There's no point taking a strong view until reality becomes clearer. (Powell just described FOMC members...
Powell’s Frustration Signals Moderately Hawkish Stance Amid Stubborn Inflation
At the Fed press conference, Powell reflects some frustration that inflation hasn't moved more sharply toward target, as tariff-fueled prices are still working their way through the system. This is a moderately hawkish presser, for reasons that largely pre-date the...
Fed Says Supply Shock Shouldn't Trigger Rate Hikes
The Fed disagree with markets on this (and I largely agree). A supply shock -- especially one that doesn't really move core inflation -- should not automatically lead to higher rates. https://t.co/V0LS0P6sGE
Iran War Reshapes Fed Expectations and Monetary Policy Outlook
Worth noting just how much the Iran war has changed expectations about the Fed and the future path of monetary policy. https://t.co/NBYZx2Uuza
Geopolitical Risk Spikes to 21st‑century Worst Levels
This measure of geopolitical risk just hit levels that put the current moment in the same league as the most dangerous moments of the 21st century. https://t.co/7ciy5RuN8b
Kick Off Weekend with In‑Depth Talk Featuring Molly Jong
Begin your weekend by joining me for a long chat with Molly Jong-Fast about *all this*. https://t.co/upeUqKge1T
Oil Prices Set to Remain High Through Midterms
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
White House Flips: War to Keep Hormuz Open
I kid you not... The same White House that forgot that didn't realize that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, is now arguing (through Ron Vara) that the war is a good idea because it'll prevent Iran from closing...
Energy Independence Doesn't Mean Price Independence, Oil Can Be Exported
"You've always got the option of putting that barrel of oil on a tanker and sending it abroad." Which is why energy independence ≠ price independence. https://t.co/BmuaLeZWk6
Markets Reveal Signals on Iran War and US Role
A pretty great conversation with @ed_elson_ and the FT's Katie Martin about what financial markets can tell us at critical moments, and what they're telling us about the war in Iran and America's place in the world. https://youtu.be/Jr7X0tlOl1k?si=9FjFHp0n13n6dPoL
War's Economics Explained: Theory Meets Today's Conflict
I'm not quite sure what to call this — a video essay, an explainer, or an econ lesson... It's my attempt to explain the economics of war — economic theories of how and why war occurs — and to use that...
Post-War Recovery: Trust Lags, Trade and Cooperation Suffer
Even if the war ends fast, “normal” won’t fully return. Trust and relationships are slow to rebuild, and that shows up as less trade, less cooperation, and more expensive risk management. https://t.co/mIgNA1yJph
