Tariff Confusion: Mixed Signals and White House Denial
“We’re in a Schrodinger’s tariff right now.” One proclamation says “a 10% tariff on the rest of the world,” the next post says “a 15% tariff literally effective immediately,” then the White House pretends he never said it. The crack team who brought you the trade war are now in Iran.
Pre‑emptive Oil Purchases Could Offset Iran Bombing Price Spike
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
Post‑Liberation Promises Mask a Looming Jobs Recession
"Since Liberation Day -- the President's last big, bold set of promises when he told us everything was about to be magical -- we've lost jobs. We've gone backwards... I'm going to call that a jobs recession." https://t.co/GZQfUVRfWG
US Oil Independence Shifts Gains to Industry, Hurts Drivers
“The US is roughly speaking oil independent… on net, we export petroleum products.” That’s why this is less an ‘America is poorer’ story than an ‘Americans reshuffle who wins’ story. Oil industry wins. Drivers lose. https://t.co/Efd22aQEeK
Data‑driven Debate, Not Magical Thinking, Drives Solutions
A “serious and responsible discussion” would start with the data, name the trade-offs, and propose fixes. Magical thinking isn’t a program; it’s an alibi. https://t.co/wtjQL4ly9p
Weaker Dollar Raises Import Costs, Boosts Export Appeal
"When the dollar falls in value... it takes more of our dollars to buy stuff from abroad." That’s the basic math of a weaker currency: imports cost more, and so do the everyday items with imported parts. The upside is...
Trump's Tariff Rate Uncertain: 10% Formal, 15% Unconfirmed
Trump's 10% global tariff was formalized in a proclamation from Friday and goes into effect at midnight tonight. He later said he would raise it to 15% but with three hours to go, is yet to do anything formal to...
Tariff Refunds Boost Retailer Profits, Not Consumer Refunds
If retailers raised prices during tariffs, that doesn’t create a liability to each customer—it creates profit (or covers costs). So if or when tariff refunds arrive, the default outcome is: firms recoup, shoppers don’t. Bottom line: You aren't getting a penny...
Short‑term Tariffs Won’t Drive Multi‑year Investment
A tariff that expires in 150 days isn’t a long-run industrial policy. Firms invest on multi-year horizons. If the policy is temporary, the investment response will be, too: mostly none. (This was recorded when the tariff rate was 10%; it's...
Tariff Refunds Benefit Importers, Not Shoppers
A tariff “refund” mostly goes to whoever wrote the tariff check: the importer of record. That’s not the same person who paid more at the register. So refunds -- if they're offered -- might sound like consumer relief, but in...
New Jobs Report: What It Means for You
Latest jobs report just dropped. Let's spend a few minutes talking about what's really going on, what it means for you, and what to keep your eye on. https://t.co/ptv6DbFqKM
President's Attempt to Manipulate Job Data Failed
My menchies show a lotta distrust about the official jobs numbers right now. Lemme be clear: I don't believe there's *any* political meddling in these numbers. While the President has tried to mess with the BLS, he failed. I explain in...
2025 Job Growth Halved by New BLS Revision
Every year the BLS does a benchmark revision which incorporates new and more detailed information. This year's revision suggests that 2025 was a far worse year than earlier estimates suggested, and total job growth was less than half that suggested...
One Sector Drives All US Job Growth, Others Lose
The U.S. job market is very unbalanced right now. One sector more than accounts for all jobs growth over the past year. The rest of the economy is shedding jobs. https://t.co/EGsnQj04uA
January Jobs Surge: Payrolls +130k, Unemployment at 4.3%
Payrolls rose a very healthy +130k in January, and unemployment fell a tick to 4.3 percent. Revisions subtracted -17k from the past two months, so not much there. This is the healthiest jobs report we've seen in a while. Keep your fingers...
New BLS Commissioner Signals Positive Economic Outlook Amid Trump
I'm trying something new: Video essays exploring recent economic developments. There's... a lot to talk about these days. Here's the first one: Thoughts on Trump, the BLS, and the new BLS Commissioner. Spoiler: This is a good news story. https://t.co/M4NltoNXJR
Unemployment Rises to 4.5%, Signaling Market Underperformance
"So what does the job market data say to you?" "It says that we're underperforming right now... The thing that matters most to people's lives is the unemployment rate. Can you find work? And that was as low as...
US Stocks Look Strong, Yet Lag Global Peers
"The US stock market, while it looks strong, is actually much weaker than almost any other industrialized country.... So while we're doing well… everyone else is doing even better." https://t.co/7KavXe5LXh
AI Cheapens Services, Cutting Vendor Profits, Boosting Productivity
That little market freakout is a real mechanism: if AI makes it cheap to do what a vendor used to sell you, the vendor’s future profits fall—even as the rest of us get more productive. https://t.co/HE7npk5km7
AI's Real Divide: Users vs Non‑users of Machines
AI anxiety often misses the key margin: it’s not “humans vs machines,” it’s “humans who use machines vs humans who don’t.” The tech shifts who’s productive—and who gets paid. Remember, you don't need to outrun the bear. https://t.co/jULdqTdCrU
