Market Cycles Return to 30‑45 Day Norm
Normal days on market run usually 30-45 days year-round, and we are somewhat back to that now. Everyone has a different data line on this but that is the NAR, back in 2011 it was over 100 days
Year‑over‑Year Price Comparisons Simplify Over Time
As the year goes on, the year-over-year comparisons become easier, so please keep that in mind with prices.
Today's Homebuyers Face Worse Conditions Than 2008
The situation is similar when comparing housing now to 2008. 😏 Now, the new kids on the block are using worse than in 2008. 🥳 https://t.co/QME4WVC86H
Home Purchase Apps Reach Post‑COVID Record, Still Under 1M
New home sales purchase apps just hit a new post-COVID high, but sales aren't close to 1,000,000. Purchase apps are a quirky trend survey. https://t.co/L1YPqLmSVC
Home Sales Still Below 2014 Lows Despite App
Remember base effects with purchase app data, even though we are at 2014 levels, existing home sales haven't even returned to the lowest levels of 2014 data, and won't this year https://t.co/TwbSqgl1YH
Mid‑
Crayon economics for a reason, credit channels run inventory channels... Mid June 2025 housing shifted 🫡 https://t.co/X4PCpW4zoi
Redfin Rebounds From Record Lows to Four-Year Sales High
Redfin went from the lowest demand ever, the highest number of sellers ever, and the highest cancelation rates ever to a four-year high in pending sales within a few weeks 🤔😏 I have questions. https://t.co/5Ijqf0Sdfu
Mortgage Rate Lockdown Hype over, Data Shows
@GRoditiD, whose job is to look at this stuff, has the coupon data on mortgages, so it's a bit unfair that we both talk about the mortgage rate lockdown being over hyped; he has the best Charts on this https://t.co/osWg5Co0Ly
Florida Inventory Dip Milder than 2008, Market Shifts
We have to be mindful of the inventory decline in Florida, since it isn't worse than 2008; it needs context. It's working from an elevated level. In general, the housing market shifted mid-June nationally & here as well. https://t.co/9kKIjLgaFe
Housing Bubble Crash Delayed Until 2027; Heed Experts
Now that we have pushed the housing bubble crash to 2027. Hopefully, by now, you all know who to listen to on this subject matter. Or you can stay in the doom porn trash world until death and the afterlife
Turnover Shifts Post‑2008
You're correct with housing tenure at 11 years, and even younger households running near 8 years. The turnover data, which changed after 2008, has been a bigger variable not only post 2020 but from 2010-2019 as well
Low 2021 Mortgage Rates Didn't Spur More Listings
To my point: In 2021, when mortgage rates were around 3% or slightly lower, people expected a significant increase in new listings. However, the number of new listings in 2021 was actually lower than in the pre-COVID era during the...
Housing Tenure Doubled Post‑Covid Despite Brief Low‑rate Period
Housing tenure is now 11-13 years, doubling to 10 years before Covid even hit us. We had sub-3% rates for roughly a year, so it's only one calendar year of sales with that rate level that is supposedly holding housing...
Higher Mortgage Rates Lift Housing Inventory Despite Lower Demand
No lower rates drove inventory lower, higher rates, and less mortgage demand pushed inventory higher 2014 rates went up, inventory rose, and in 2022 and on Inventory has been rising since the lows of 2022 as rates rose https://t.co/P0s2EF33ME
50% Price Crash Predicted for 2026 Despite Stable Rates
The best debate all year was a 50% price crash in 2026, recorded on YouTube, because rates would go to 5.5% this year, and there were no distress sales Link is below, I kid you not, we recorded the entire...
Housing Rarely Crashes; Liquidity Needs Sustained Distress
We have had many recessions post-WWII. We only had one national nominal home price crash in over 80 years. Housing isn't a liquid sector of our economy unless you have high levels of distressed sales as a % of total...
Call for Live Debate on Housing Bubble Predictions
You talk too much for someone who keeps saying housing will have a bubble mean crash. Let's see how you do live in front of everyone with your real name and written forecasts Time to ball up Challenge live...
Housing Affordability Rises, yet Mortgage Rates Stay Above 5.75%
Purchase apps and weekly pending home sales are at multi-year highs last week, low base-effect growth. Housing is slowly getting more affordable with time, as long as wages outpace prices. Extremely hard to get mortgage rates under 5.75% with a...
Housing Inventory Set to Turn Negative YoY Amid UFO Buzz
In honor of the #UFO information release and the fact that #housing inventory is about to go negative year over year. 👽👾 #mortgagerates #realestate #chartdaddy
Housing Market Tracker Shows Inventory Near Negative YoY
It was another positive week for the housing market tracker, with inventory on the verge of going negative year over year. More updates on this will be provided over the weekend.
Robust Job Growth Fuels Fed Hawks, Delays Rate Cuts
The Civil War with the Fed just got more interesting as the year-to-date job growth will give the Fed hawks more ammunition not to cut rates. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #labor #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Current Labor Market, Mortgage Rates, and Housing Demand Overview
It's #jobs Friday. In today's podcast, we preview the current labor market, mortgage rates, and inflation. We also discuss the recent #housing demand data. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Early 2020 Economic Indicators Outperformed Despite Recession Fears
One thing about Pre Covid data. Jan & Feb 2020 data pre Covid was good, the recession calls were wild in 2019 due to the trade war & rates, but almost every forward-looking economic data we had was outperforming the first...
No Rate Cuts
Until the conflict ends, no rate cuts. You would need to see a big rise with duration with jobless claims data for the hawks to budge now
Wages Out
3% wage growth or under 1% Productivity growth Target 2% inflaiton, wage growth still too high for the Fed
Mid‑June 2025 Housing Shift: Demand Drops, Pending Sales Surge
It strikes again now on the other side. You can't go from one chart showing the lowest demand ever to pending home sales jumping this much on the other one. The housing market shifted in mid-June 2025, but... Context is...
Purchase Applications Slip 3% Weekly, Up 5% Yearly
Purchase application data declined 3% week over week but increased 5% year over year. Slower data, of course, when rates are near yearly highs, but nothing too drastic. https://t.co/u4F2VonvWZ
New Home Sales Spike, Yet Long‑Term Growth Stagnates
New home sales beat estimates today to the upside, but in reality, aside from the COVID bump in sales, it has gone nowhere for years. #housing #realestate #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
New Home Sales Stagnant Amid COVID and War
Take the Covid bump a war, new home sales have gone nowhere for a long time https://t.co/wux0SurDgQ
Jobs Week Persists Amid Yesterday’s Housing Drama
We have a lot to talk about after the drama of yesterday and it's still jobs week. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #realestate #housing #chartdaddy
Rates Near Yearly Highs, Slowing Activity but Manageable
Rates are near yearly highs, still lower than last year, but these levels have already slowed things down this year. Nothing too bad, but there is definitely some impact.
Mortgage Spreads Hit 2023 Lows, Rates Near 8%
If we had the worst levels of mortgage spreads in 2023, we are close to 8% rates https://t.co/sLnq98D0Ce
Housing Inventory Improves; Market Health Rebounds Post‑2023
Mid June 2025, things changed, but… we are in a better spot with our inventory. No longer the savagely unhealthy housing market of 2020-2023. https://t.co/P33FOhUFRj
War Continues, Rate Cuts Unlikely; Hike Probability Rises
No rate cuts while the war is ongoing; there's a higher chance of a hike if this persists.
Housing Inventory Nears Negative YoY, Defying 2008‑era Fears
#Housing inventory is approaching negative year-over-year levels in a year when some doomers predicted it would be worse than 2008. Time to call a scrub and scrub @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy
Housing Inventory Growth Plummets From 33% to 2.3%
Housing inventory growth has now gone from 33% year over year last year to just 2.33%. Remember, this is a hard comp story too, up until mid June
Fixed-Rate Mortgages Boost Homeowners' Real Income
With fixed long term debt costs and rising wages, your wages rise more during an inflationary period. A 30-year fixed loan was an unfair advantage in American economic history. The stock of homeowners in America is doing fine https://t.co/aM5DZjlqdV
ChartDaddy Highlights Real Estate Trends on Day Two
Day 2 of The Gathering was a #ChartDaddy special @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #economics
Mortgage Spread Trends Since 1970 Revealed
Nothing better than talking about the history of mortgage spreads going back to 1970 🫡 https://t.co/upgguOdje6
Powell’s Final Fed Meeting May Raise Guidance, but Influence Wanes
The Fed meeting is approaching, and Powell might raise guidance; we'll see. It's his last Fed meeting, so his stance won't carry as much weight. #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy #realestate #housing
Worst‑Case Spreads Push Rates Above 7% (202
Rates would have been over 7% already from 2023 to 2025 using the worst levels of the spreads back then. https://t.co/aZUC6h4rQu
40% Home Price Drop Triggers Massive Distress Sales
History indicates that a 40% nominal national home price crash would necessitate significant distress sales. https://t.co/h46Wqa4NpK
Purchase App Data Shows 2% Weekly, 21% YoY Growth
Purchase application data update: 2% week to week growth. 21% year over year growth https://t.co/0rJaQcBlPc
Purchase Apps Jump 21% YoY After 12% Rise
Purchase apps up 21% year over year, coming off a 12% YoY print last week
Home‑buying Sentiment Hits Multiyear High
The consumer sentiment index on the intent to buy a new #home was released today at a multiyear high. #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Housing Market Stays Resilient Amid Storms, War, Rate Swings
Quietly, the housing market has weathered the epic snowstorm and the war quite well, considering all the drama and fluctuations with #mortgage rates. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #chartdaddy
Active Listings Below Historic Norm, Inventory Remains Healthy
My stance has always been the same: 1.52-1.93 million active listings with over four months of supply. Inventory is fine. Data from 2020-2024 was never seen historically with active listings. Normal is 2-2.5 million listings, we have 1,360,000 today, the...
Inflation Spikes: War, Credit Booms, Pandemic Pressures
1943-1947 1974-1979 Both high inflationary periods 2002-2005 didn't have high inflation, but a credit demand boom and bust 2020-2022 Pandemic Inflation https://t.co/Jjov0fsNAY
Mid‑June 2025: Housing Market Rebalances Supply and Demand
The national housing market generally shifted in mid-June of 2025 🫡 S.D.E Supply Demand Equilibirum
1980 Mortgage Rates Hit 13% Despite Negative Spread
Even with a negative 0.24% mortgage spread in Feb of 1980, mortgage rates where 13% at that tme