Proposed Elimination of Property Taxes for Seniors May Be Illegal
Next, they will try to eliminate property taxes for those 65 and over 😏 even though legally that might be an issue
Housing Yields Sweet Spot: ≤6.25% Thanks to Spreads
The sweet spot for housing over the past few years has been 6.25% and under, with duration. The only reason we have a shot here again is due to the spreads this year
Case‑Shiller Reveals National Housing Price Crash.
If you show the Case-Shiller index instead of a median sales price index, prices have been crashing nationally "The drugs you're on," Wow https://t.co/98Oo6wuBbW
Inventory Shift: Sun Belt Stabilizes, Northeast Declines, Rates Under 6.25%
2026.... Think 2023 data Except that spreads are much lower, we have a lot of rate cuts in the system. Inventory is higher, but hard comps for inventory growth until mid-June. Housing shifted in Mid June of 2025. Look at...
2019 Arms Predicted to Flood Market by 2025
Remember, the 2019 arms were expected to crash the market with listings in 2025. https://t.co/xHprg5yCwD
Post‑2010 Reforms Boosted Oil Price Resilience
We have handled higher oil prices better after 2010 than pre 2010 cycles. Post 2005 BK reform and 2010 QM laws https://t.co/SwQzY3OpNQ
Inflation and Iran Tensions Threaten Mortgage Rate Stability
Today we discussed the recent #inflation data and the complications of the Iran conflict for rates if labor stabilizes. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #oil #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Higher Oil Prices Need Weak Labor Market to Spare Inflation
We have had elevated oil prices before without much impact on core inflation, but back in 2011-2014, the labor market was softer, and wage growth was much lower with lower nominal growth https://t.co/sgut5B2XBG
AirPod Case Theft Reveals Precise Location Tracking Limits
Someone stole my AirPod case, but I can track exactly where they live, 🤔 If I click the sound button, does it still work if it's in another state?
Peak Inventory at 1.5M,
While inventory won't get back to normal 2-2.5 million, having peak inventory above 1.52 million and 4 months plus of supply during the seasonal peak supply months is a much healthier backdrop than in the past
Homes Now Sell in 30‑45 Days, Market Healthier than Covid Era
30-45 days on the market is normal, this is a much healthier marketplace than the Covid years
NAR Pending Data Increasingly Diverges From Existing Sales
Back-to-back months, there is a gap between the NAR's pending and their existing home sales data, which has been more common lately, this is why I am suspect of their pending data
Lower Rates Could Reverse Expected Home Price Decline
My forecast of negative -0.62% national home price growth is at risk if rates go lower
Anti‑central‑bank Activists Have Long Warned Housing Bubble
2012 and on the Anti central bank movement have been bat $:/- crazy about a housing bubble for a long time https://t.co/MIvPSfkR3e
Housing Scarcity Drove Rate Hikes in Early 2021
Dallas and the country, from 2020 to early 2022, didn't have enough housing listings, too many people chasing too few homes. Hence, the entire team higher rates concept in February of 2021 https://t.co/KU1fXBbATF
Current Crisis Surpasses 2008, Don’t Trust the Doomers
Worse, I mean worse, than 2008, how can't you all see this? It's not housing 2008; it's worse... Oh wait Mike and I have tried to teach you all how it works, you got suckered by a bunch of doomers,...
Live Mortgage Rate Lock Debate: 30‑Minute Decision Challenge
You talk too much. Challenge live debate, you and I on spaces, one I can't wait to have 30 minutes to accept my mortgage rate lock-down premise or get blocked, good recording to share among many Do you...
1970s Home Prices Outpaced 2020s Despite Higher Rates
Home prices rose faster from 1977 to 1979, with rates going from 8% to 13% than 2020 to 2022, when rates were sub 4% https://t.co/WlkyoI0JTr
Since 2022, New Listings Aren't Cash‑buyer Sellers
To make it as simple as possible, all the new listings data we have had since 2022, weren't sellers that bought homes with cash people, for F sake, this isn't complicated folks
70‑80% of New Sellers Are Mortgage‑Financed Buyers
New listings data ranged between 30K-80K per week seasonally, 70%-80% of these sellers are buyers, they don't sell and buy with cash. Most buy with mortgages. If you can't get this simple concept, I am no use to you both,...
Older Buyers Driving Mortgage Rate Lockdown, Data Shows
Again, if you analyze the buyer profile data, there’s no logical way we experienced a mortgage rate lockdown. The largest group of buyers tends to be older; the coupon data consistently showed this as they sold their homes with lower...
Data Shows Mortgage Rate Lock‑Down Theory Overstated
If the mortgage rate lock-down theory were a real thing, then existing home sales would be near 2 million because the 4 generational sellers that were buyers since late 2022 would not have sold and bought homes. As the data...
National Inventory Nears Negative YoY, but Not 2008 Levels
The national inventory is on the verge of going negative year over year. States like Florida that have seen a clear year-over-year decline were working from more elevated levels. Context is key, it's not worse than 2008, doom porn is...
Property Taxes Fuel New Red‑Blue State Migration Wave
Red States vs Blue States, the next wave of trying to get migration is going after property taxes
Existing Home Sales Data Arriving Tomorrow, Shows Inventory Trends
Existing home sales will be released tomorrow, providing a historical view of active inventory. https://t.co/Numo1lkNMr
Housing Inventory Drops Negative Year‑Over‑Year, Explained
#housing inventory going negative year over year? This weekend’s tracker we discuss what is really going on! @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #economics #mortgagerates #realestate #chartdaddy
Better Mortgage Spreads Keep Rates About 1% Lower
If we had the worst mortgage spread levels in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.45% today, not 6.39%. If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.08% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates...
Inventory Growth Stalls; New Listings Dip Sharply Year‑over‑year
Inventory growth really slowed this week, both active and new lisitngs, new listings is noticebly lower this year vs last year, but I do have a theory on that this week with the weekend tracker
Fed Accepts Low Job Growth, Won’t Tolerate Wage Surge
The war has undeniably complicated things. Initially, the Fed aimed to dismiss the rise in Goods PCE inflation as a temporary blip until it passed. However, they are now starting to accept the reality of low job growth as the...
Mortgage Spread Holds Near 6%, Avoids 7% Spike
It could have been much worse today, but closer to 6% than above 7%, hug a #mortgage spread. #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Strong Job Numbers Spark Rate‑cut Debate, Wage Growth Key
Low jobless claims and even job growth at 33,000 raise the question of rate cuts, as long as wage growth remains above 3%
Purchase Applications Up 1% Weekly, Down 7% YoY
Purchase applicaiton data update +1% week to week -7% year over year First negative YoY print of the year, working off a harder one-week comp https://t.co/RPol0wlsHM
Bond Market and Mortgage Rates Enjoy Rare Rally
A good day for the #bond market and #mortgagerares for a change. #economics #housing #realestate
Better Spreads May Push Returns
10’s back in the bowl and spreads getting a tad better can get you sub 6% on 15 easy, it might even happen tomorrow, mid 5% near closer to 4%! https://t.co/Kt4rjgTehd
Ceasefire Triggers Oil and Bond Yield Declines
Two-week ceasefire leads to drops in oil and bond yields. #oil #bonds #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Housing Market Resilient Amid Rising Mortgage Spreads
Today's podcast discusses #mortgage spreads and how the #housing market is holding up with wartime #economics @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #chartdaddy
Year's First Pre‑Tax Day Amid Sub‑6.5% Rates
First pre-tax day year when rates have been 6.50% or below most of the time. https://t.co/YibUd3rIAT
St. Louis Fed Spread Hit 3.11% on June 1 2023
Always remember that the spreads are quoted differently depending on who you're quoting mortgage rates with. The St. Louis Fed spread's recent high was June 1, 2023, at 3.11% https://t.co/sraBmi3n5u
Shelter Now
Since over 40% CPI is shelter, anyone doing dual axis war crimes needs to imply that shelter and housing are about to take off like it did in the mid to late 1970's https://t.co/kFRdJ1fDGu
SF Housing Market Diverges Sharply From National Trends
The San Francisco housing market is disconnected from national data. Remember the negative year-over-year inventory data from Florida, it was working from elevated levels too 🫡 https://t.co/S838PdvONt
Pending Sales Hit Multi-Year Highs, Growth Slows
Purchase apps, weekly pending, and total pending sales are still at multi-year highs, but growth has slowed over the last 2 weeks. The 6 weeks of positive YoY data on the weekly pendings were snapped last week, even though we...
Existing Home Sales at 1.29M, Well Below Normal
We will get this updated this week with the new existing home sales report. ...
Surround Yourself with Uplifters, Not Doomers
“The key is to keep company only with people who uplift you, whose presence calls forth your best.” Epictetus Or .... F all doomers
Credit Spreads Stay Under Historic Peak at 2.11%
Even with the LTCM drama of the late 1990's, spreads never got above 2.40%, we are at 2.11% today https://t.co/yTyr072f92
New Listings Near Crash Levels, Yet Market Differs
New listings data is trying to return to normal, usually between 80K-100K during seasonal peak months, but this is what it looked like during the housing bubble crash years. Not the same marketplace as you can see @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate...
Current Listings Surge From Historic Lows
New listings data this last week were 70,191 The same week back in 2009 -287,185 2010 - 306,150 2011 - 367,465 https://t.co/hrxkJ4eTa5
3%
A history lesson on spreads and how rare 3% spreads have been in recent history. We never had 3% + spreads during the GFC or Covid We did in 2023, as the Fed was still hiking rates & the SVB crisis was...
Mortgage Spreads High; 8% Rates Demand Booming Economy
With where mortgage spreads are at with the Fed Funds Rate, 8% rates would need a booming economy with job and wage growth picking up again Spreads got as high as 3.11% in 2023, currently at 2.11% https://t.co/25afwLqFtN
2026 Housing Data Starts Calm Amid Pandemic Aftermath
With all the madness in 2026, the housing data has had the most boring, normal start to the year we have had post-COVID. 🫡
2026 Job
Since the bar is so low for job growth in 2026 to surpass 2025, even with normal revisions, we would still be higher than last year. https://t.co/LEfXSmvQST