Weekly Demand up YoY Even as Rates Fall
As crazy as this sounds, the weekly demand with our tracker data is still positive YoY, just remember that rates are still lower YoY; more on this with our weekend tracker. 🫡
Only One US Home Price Crash Despite Many Recessions
We have experienced many recessions since WWII, but only one nationwide home price crash and foreclosure crisis, household debt leverage ratio was much higher back then. https://t.co/VjgmPgQgRv
Rising 10‑Year
Last year, a 4.50%-4.60% on the 10-year yield got the White House To Blink, with stocks falling. Now higher oil prices 🧙♂️🪄
Slower Inventory, Strong Demand Thanks to Low Mortgage Spreads
Inventory growth has been much slower this year vs last; the housing demand curve has been positive this year because rates are still lower YoY. If mortgage spreads didn't improve rates would have already been above 7% already https://t.co/J8onCbn0WP
Trump Should Keep Powell Amid Ongoing Inflation Concerns
Warsh will be out hawkes this year; Trump might as well keep Powell as Fed chair until the inflation story changes. No point in criticizing your guy for rate cuts now.
Daily Chart Guidance Amid Volatile Oil and Bonds
No matter how crazy #oil and #bonds get, your friendly neighborhood #chartdaddy will guide you daily. #mortgagerates #economics
Mortgage Spreads Hold up Despite Global Turmoil
Considering what is going on in the world, not bad. Hug a mortgage spread https://t.co/p5DPczjpvY
Purchase Applications Stay Positive Weekly Year‑Over‑Year
Even with all the drama this year, purchase application data has been positive year over year every week. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #realestate #economics #chartdaddy
Purchase App Data Up 1% Weekly, 12% YoY
Purchase application data update: +1% week to week +12% year over year Every week this year has had positive year-over-year data. https://t.co/gfHZLTffev
De‑escalation Signaled by Seeking NATO and China Help
Clearly, a sense of de-escalation if we are asking for help from NATO and China 🫡
Mortgage Rate “Lockdown” Proven Myth by Data
The #Mortgage rate lockdown sounds reasonable, but it wasn't really a thing with all the data we have now. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Rate Lock‑In Suppresses Millions of Home Listings
The mortgage rate lockdown theory has not existed in the data since 2022, as nobody would sell their low rate to buy another home. https://t.co/E2q1j8TMjQ
France Declines Warships; China Unlikely—Who's Left?
I take it France is a no on War Ships coming to help. I can't imagine China says yes. Who do we have left?
Pre‑Conflict 2026 Mortgage Locks Hovered
To give you an idea of what levels were rates locked in 2026 before the conflict started, a bunch of rate locks came in at 6.20%-6.35% @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #housing #realestate #chartdaddy
Mortgage Rates
Rate locks between 6.20% - 6.35% corrinadting with positive purchase application data and weekly pending sales all year long, so far, yes. At 6.41% today is the first day that pricing is above the September 17th, 2025 data point https://t.co/lqWqldYe3s
War Threatens Spring Housing Market Stability
Today's podcast discusses is spring #housing is really at risk due to the war? @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Housing Market Set to Grow if Rates Stay Steady
#Housing market is poised for growth this year if Iran conflict doesn't raise rates, says HousingWire Mohtashami https://t.co/ZBWUvaAFKo
Housing Construction Stalls as Permits Show No Real Rise
The honest truth is that not much is happening in housing construction until permits start to rise with some kick, but this is really going nowhere, aside from monthly volatility. https://t.co/Nw9k88N1fn
Home Inventory Slumps to 1.29M, Far Below Historic Levels
After this week's existing home sales report. Let's do an inventory checkup, today we stand at 1,290,000. Historically, it's been between 2-2.5 million; it was 4,000,000 in 2007. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #economics #chartdaddy
Flat Housing Inventory Persists Unless Rates Spike Dramatically
It's going to be a boring year for housing inventory, unless rates spike up big time However, now that we are in 2026 You can see the difference in the inventory channel When comparing sales crashing from 2005 to 2008, vs sales...
New Variable Lifts 10-Year Yield Above 4.15%
Sticking with the 24 theme for 2026, a new variable pushes the 10-year yield above 4.15%! #housing #mortgagerates #realestate #chartdaddy
Housing Inventory Shrinks to 1.29M, Far Below 2007
1.29 million total inventory in 2026 4,000,000 in 2007 It's 2026, the 4th year after the big sales crash in 2022. Stop dancing with a ghost 🫡
Ignore Recent Dip, Trend Since June Remains Upward
So we can move along from this 2-month period Last month's report was a holiday softness; the rebound should be discounted as well, and just forget these last two months and follow the trend that has been since mid-June
Final Home Sales Report Shows Snow Impact, Outlook Stable
Just remember, this is the final existing home sales report that has some of the snow variable in it; our forward-looking data looks fine for the last 3 weeks https://t.co/JtXKhBSDDM
Fed Curbs Wage Growth, Especially at the Top
The Fed is winning the war against wage growth, at least on 2 of the 3, but probably would love to see lower wage growth in the higher end
Inventory May Turn Negative YoY by Early April
Inventory has a shot of being negative year over year by the end of March or the first week of April if the seasonal increase doesn't happen soon. https://t.co/yYspHxEdvu
Housing Inventory May Turn Negative Despite Low Rates
Kinda embarrassing for the #housing 2008 crowd, and, worse than 2008. At this pace, if rates stay low, inventory might show some negative week-to-week data. 🤯🤯🤯😳😱 What a bunch of scrubs 😁😉🥂 @housingwire @sarahteresa6 read the tracker reports and join...
Housing Inventory Growth Slows Sharply, Risks Negative Prints
The housing market shifted mid-June 2025. Inventory growth was running at 33% and now it's running at 6.91% with a risk of some negative week-to-week prints. https://t.co/VgpdKDUPpd
National Inventory Heading Negative
At current pace, the national inventory data will have some negative year-over-year weekly data. Read books, don't burn them. 🫡 https://t.co/pV6P6SxOka
National Inventory Set to Turn Negative, Price Cuts Decline
The National Inventory is expected to turn negative at some point this year, and the percentage of price cuts is lower compared to last year. Whoever you're getting your housing info from, I would question them about this. https://t.co/AHHEytiMoR
Potential Negative YoY Inventory by April if Seasonal Rise Delayed
We should be getting the national seasonal inventory increase soon, but if, for some reason, that doesn't happen, we will have negative year-over-year inventory data by the end of March or Early April Note: For the worse than 2008 crowd...
Pending Sales Rise YoY, Driving Inventory Decline
Another week of positive year-over-year growth in our weekly pending sales data, and it's biting inventory lower now. 😉 A lot more with tracker article this weekend
Mortgage Spreads Curb Rates Amid Iran War Concerns
Mortgage spreads continue to keep mortgage rates in check as Iran war sp... https://t.co/iBMRx6aFsB via @YouTube
Inventory Surged Pre‑recession, Now Below Normal Levels
Home sales peaked in 2005 Home Sales crashed from 2005 to 2008 Inventory spiked before the recession started 2005 2.5 million Inventory 2007 4,000,000 Inventory Currently at 1.22 million Normal is 2-2.5 million Credit channels have run inventory channels for...
Discard Outdated Housing Debt Bubble Narrative
You have to let go of the housing debt bubble premise from the past — that's an old battle that no longer exists, you're chasing a ghost here. https://t.co/DV4aV0RuyM
Homeowner Numbers Stagnant; New Laws Fuel Economic Shift
That is not the scale of homeowners in America for 15 years now. The QM laws of 2010 and the 2005 BK reform law changed a lot for American economics https://t.co/SfPRuod5EC
Rising PITI Costs Shatter 2020‑24 Sales Threshold
Total PITI costs surged for housing and in a QM lending environment that was set to crush sales. I had a price model limit for 2020-2024: if we didn't surpass 23% during those five years, we would be okay; we...
US Homebuilding Follows Demand, Halts at 120K Units
As a country, we simply don't ever build on a supply-first model; we only build based on our demand curve. This is why the builders pause when total completed units for sale just hit 120K, for decades https://t.co/S6RwyAA3hO
Homeowners Cling to Low Rates, yet Many Still Move
Given this situation, millions of Americans could afford and even need to move, but they stay in homes they no longer want because they do not want to lose their low mortgage rates. Yet each quarter, people have given up...
War in Iran and Inflation Push Mortgage Rates Near 6%
Today’s podcast discusses a theory of mine on why #mortgagerates are near 6%, with hotter inflation data and the war with Iran driving up oil prices. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #economics #realestate #housing #chartdaddy
Purchase Applications Rise YoY, Five Weeks Double‑Digit Growth
Yes, it's true that even with the snow this year which is melting away, purchase application data is up year over year every week this year, with 5 weeks showing double-digit growth. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Mortgage Rates Nearing Sub‑6% Despite Week’s Volatility
Even with all the madness of this week #mortgagerates are almost back below 6% #realestate #housing #chartdaddy #mortgagespreads
10-Year Yield Stagnates
10-year yield action this week 🥱 considering all that has happened, maybe jobs Friday changes that https://t.co/30TFujFiHs
Yesterday’s Pricing Event Predicts Today’s Market Move
Today's podcast discusses yesterday's market pricing event, and today's market action isn't surprising to me. I encourage people to listen to this for a better understanding. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
2% Inflation Won’t Trigger 3% Mortgage Rates
2% inflation won't lead to 3% mortgage rates with the Fed at neutral policy. https://t.co/TpEKz1u8Cu
Economic Wild
Today's topic is #economic wildcards; this was prepared before the Iran situation began, but that topic was discussed. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #realestate #housing #chartdaddy
2023 Spread Surge Pushes Mortgages to 7.17%
The worst levels of the spreads in 2023 resulted in 7.17% mortgage rates today instead of 5.99%. https://t.co/PkASya1lri
Demand Rises, Inventory Falls Amid Mortgage Rate Tension
What will happen? What did happen with the housing data last week? Demand went up, inventory went down, but I also have a special section about #mortgagerares and the conflict. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Snow Data Vanishes, Hits Weekly Housing Report
On this note, snow data is totally fading away from our weekly housing, one more existing home sales report that gets impacted, and that's it
Housing Inventory and New Listings Dip, See Weekend Tracker
Housing Inventory and new listings took a noticeble dip but I do explain it in this weekend's tracker