6.64% Rate Threshold Determines Mortgage Demand
6.64% has always been my line in sand for rates when they tick higher from here demand slows when they go lower toward 6% things improve. Hug a mortgage spread today https://t.co/DeRZntaHsC
2026 Target Missed: 4.6% Goal Unmet
Not how I envisioned my peak 4.60% premise for 2026 🤨 but here we are striking at the door https://t.co/w1Vwd6cxs9
Five Boomers Can’t Explain Five Million Home Sales
Near 5,000,000 total home sales, even if you couldn’t do basic math, the rational of 5 boomers holding up near 5,000,000 sales is very unlikely 😏 stop burning books
War's Economics Drive Housing Market Turbulence
Logan Mohtashami on the economics of war and its effect on housing https://t.co/23QO1ifkKU via @YouTube
Higher Rates Above 6.6% Dampening Demand
This is where the data in the past starts to get hit as in the past few years rates moving above 6.64% and above 7% impacts demand https://t.co/oiZjW5mQiD
Redfin's Seller Data Is Misleading, Beware the Hype
If you men haven't learned that Redfin is playing you like a chump with their most sellers ever data, just look at their weekly pricing data since their chart came out. You guys are getting hustled. https://t.co/OJouoW3HqA
War‑Time Economics Drive Oil, Bonds, Mortgage Rates
Today’s podcast, ignore the morning hair, is about war time #economics. #oil #bonds #mortgagerates #chartdaddy @housingwire @sarahteresa6
Supply and Distress Drive Home Price Cycles
Supply and distress supply are the big keys; we have 84 years of data on this and many economic cycles with nominal national home prices data. https://t.co/7ojUXodFpL
Sky‑High Rates Stall Existing Home Sales, New Sales Flat
Rates getting to 18% made is less affordable back then, different ways to measure this, but prices & rates exploded. A big variable on why existing home sales haven't finished a year under 4,000,000 the last 3 with with new...
1970s Rates Spiked, yet Home Prices Outpaced COVID Era
From 1977 to 1979, mortgage rates rose from 8% to 13%, yet home prices still grew faster than during the sub-4% COVID years. Rates peaked around 18%, with spreads being quite large at nearly 6%. The spread market today is...
Past Home Price Booms Surpassed Covid, No Crash
The hottest home price growth period was 1943-1947, with no bubble crash afterward, and 1977-1979 had even hotter price increases than during Covid, also without a bubble crash. If people bothered to read books instead of burning them, they would...
Fixed‑rate 30‑year Loans Stabilize Debt as Wages Climb
30-year fixed loan. Fixed debt cost and rising wages, even with more people with 6% plus mortgage rates vs 3% and lower. https://t.co/fLDxpBRw15
Mortgage Applications Up YoY, Weekly Demand Drops
#Mortgage purchase application data remains positive year over year, but weekly demand declined last week. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #economics #mortgagerstes #chartdaddy
Housing Bubble Persists Since 2012, Now Worse than 2008
Since 2012 housing has always been in a bubble and it's housing 2008 or worse ☺️😏😁🫡 https://t.co/l2fykhXDfn
Purchase Applications Dip 5% Weekly, YoY Growth Slows
Purchase application data, although still positive year over year, showed a week-to-week decline of 5% and the YoY growth slowed down. https://t.co/1ZaOtoeLuN
Explaining This Week’s Mortgage, Oil, and Bond Turmoil
@housingwire @sarahteresa6 We try to explain the madness if this week with #mortgagerates #oil and #bonds with this conflict. #economics #chartdaddy
Rates to Exceed 7% with Worsening Spreads
2023-2025 rates would already be over 7% with the worse levels of spreads each year. https://t.co/2c2qtO9Hlx
Housing Market Set to Grow If Iran Tensions Spare Rates
Housing market is poised for growth this year if Iran conflict doesn't raise rates, says HousingWire Mohtashami https://t.co/ZBWUvaA7UQ
New Home Sales Yet to Slip Below 2022 Lows
If new homes can fall below the 2022 lows in sales for at least 5-7 months, that would do it, but their purchase application data hasn't shown that yet. https://t.co/Jv2eyLip1u
Spreads Peaked 2023, Normalize by 2026 After 2022 Rise
2023 had the peak spreads of the cycle at 3.11%. Since then, it has gradually improved each year. By 2026, spreads approached normal levels again. February 2022 is when the spreads started to worsen. https://t.co/hK3qQPLtIs
Brace for Market Turbulence If No New News
Given all the news in the past 24 hours, if nothing new is announced in the next 24 hours, strap in—things are about to get intense. #oil #bonds #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Existing Home Sales Near Record Lows, Sensitive to 7% Rates
We have to be mindful that existing home sales, unlike new home sales, are still working from all-time lows; the bar is very low for growth. Sales haven't collapsed since the end of 2022, no matter where rates went, but...
Florida Inventory Drop Easier; Comps Soften Through Mid‑June
Also, be mindful that the inventory decline in Florida YoY was working from an easier bar to do so. Just like the national data, the YoY comps get easier up until mid-June. https://t.co/z4GnIpxb5B
Rare 100K+ Listings Forecast 80K Breakthrough
The last time we had new listings above 100K May 24th, 2019 at 101,000 June 12, 2015, at 110,000 It's only happened a few times post 2013 During the housing crash years, it ran at 250K-400K for years We can break over 80K...
Current Rates Far Below Worst‑case Mortgage Spread Scenarios
If we had the worst levels of mortgage spreads in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.67% today, not 6.53% If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.29% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025,...
Prolonged High Oil Prices Harm Economy Over Time
A look at #Oil prices, post 2010 we have been able to handle elevated prices, but elevated prices and rates aren't a positive when duration is applied #energy #Economics #Chartdaddy
Weekly Demand up YoY Even as Rates Fall
As crazy as this sounds, the weekly demand with our tracker data is still positive YoY, just remember that rates are still lower YoY; more on this with our weekend tracker. 🫡
Only One US Home Price Crash Despite Many Recessions
We have experienced many recessions since WWII, but only one nationwide home price crash and foreclosure crisis, household debt leverage ratio was much higher back then. https://t.co/VjgmPgQgRv
Rising 10‑Year
Last year, a 4.50%-4.60% on the 10-year yield got the White House To Blink, with stocks falling. Now higher oil prices 🧙♂️🪄
Slower Inventory, Strong Demand Thanks to Low Mortgage Spreads
Inventory growth has been much slower this year vs last; the housing demand curve has been positive this year because rates are still lower YoY. If mortgage spreads didn't improve rates would have already been above 7% already https://t.co/J8onCbn0WP
Trump Should Keep Powell Amid Ongoing Inflation Concerns
Warsh will be out hawkes this year; Trump might as well keep Powell as Fed chair until the inflation story changes. No point in criticizing your guy for rate cuts now.
Daily Chart Guidance Amid Volatile Oil and Bonds
No matter how crazy #oil and #bonds get, your friendly neighborhood #chartdaddy will guide you daily. #mortgagerates #economics
Mortgage Spreads Hold up Despite Global Turmoil
Considering what is going on in the world, not bad. Hug a mortgage spread https://t.co/p5DPczjpvY
Purchase Applications Stay Positive Weekly Year‑Over‑Year
Even with all the drama this year, purchase application data has been positive year over year every week. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #realestate #economics #chartdaddy
Purchase App Data Up 1% Weekly, 12% YoY
Purchase application data update: +1% week to week +12% year over year Every week this year has had positive year-over-year data. https://t.co/gfHZLTffev
De‑escalation Signaled by Seeking NATO and China Help
Clearly, a sense of de-escalation if we are asking for help from NATO and China 🫡
Mortgage Rate “Lockdown” Proven Myth by Data
The #Mortgage rate lockdown sounds reasonable, but it wasn't really a thing with all the data we have now. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Rate Lock‑In Suppresses Millions of Home Listings
The mortgage rate lockdown theory has not existed in the data since 2022, as nobody would sell their low rate to buy another home. https://t.co/E2q1j8TMjQ
France Declines Warships; China Unlikely—Who's Left?
I take it France is a no on War Ships coming to help. I can't imagine China says yes. Who do we have left?
Pre‑Conflict 2026 Mortgage Locks Hovered
To give you an idea of what levels were rates locked in 2026 before the conflict started, a bunch of rate locks came in at 6.20%-6.35% @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #housing #realestate #chartdaddy
Mortgage Rates
Rate locks between 6.20% - 6.35% corrinadting with positive purchase application data and weekly pending sales all year long, so far, yes. At 6.41% today is the first day that pricing is above the September 17th, 2025 data point https://t.co/lqWqldYe3s
War Threatens Spring Housing Market Stability
Today's podcast discusses is spring #housing is really at risk due to the war? @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Housing Market Set to Grow if Rates Stay Steady
#Housing market is poised for growth this year if Iran conflict doesn't raise rates, says HousingWire Mohtashami https://t.co/ZBWUvaAFKo
Housing Construction Stalls as Permits Show No Real Rise
The honest truth is that not much is happening in housing construction until permits start to rise with some kick, but this is really going nowhere, aside from monthly volatility. https://t.co/Nw9k88N1fn
Home Inventory Slumps to 1.29M, Far Below Historic Levels
After this week's existing home sales report. Let's do an inventory checkup, today we stand at 1,290,000. Historically, it's been between 2-2.5 million; it was 4,000,000 in 2007. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #economics #chartdaddy
Flat Housing Inventory Persists Unless Rates Spike Dramatically
It's going to be a boring year for housing inventory, unless rates spike up big time However, now that we are in 2026 You can see the difference in the inventory channel When comparing sales crashing from 2005 to 2008, vs sales...
New Variable Lifts 10-Year Yield Above 4.15%
Sticking with the 24 theme for 2026, a new variable pushes the 10-year yield above 4.15%! #housing #mortgagerates #realestate #chartdaddy
Housing Inventory Shrinks to 1.29M, Far Below 2007
1.29 million total inventory in 2026 4,000,000 in 2007 It's 2026, the 4th year after the big sales crash in 2022. Stop dancing with a ghost 🫡
Ignore Recent Dip, Trend Since June Remains Upward
So we can move along from this 2-month period Last month's report was a holiday softness; the rebound should be discounted as well, and just forget these last two months and follow the trend that has been since mid-June
Final Home Sales Report Shows Snow Impact, Outlook Stable
Just remember, this is the final existing home sales report that has some of the snow variable in it; our forward-looking data looks fine for the last 3 weeks https://t.co/JtXKhBSDDM