Fed Curbs Wage Growth, Especially at the Top
The Fed is winning the war against wage growth, at least on 2 of the 3, but probably would love to see lower wage growth in the higher end
Inventory May Turn Negative YoY by Early April
Inventory has a shot of being negative year over year by the end of March or the first week of April if the seasonal increase doesn't happen soon. https://t.co/yYspHxEdvu
Housing Inventory May Turn Negative Despite Low Rates
Kinda embarrassing for the #housing 2008 crowd, and, worse than 2008. At this pace, if rates stay low, inventory might show some negative week-to-week data. 🤯🤯🤯😳😱 What a bunch of scrubs 😁😉🥂 @housingwire @sarahteresa6 read the tracker reports and join...
Housing Inventory Growth Slows Sharply, Risks Negative Prints
The housing market shifted mid-June 2025. Inventory growth was running at 33% and now it's running at 6.91% with a risk of some negative week-to-week prints. https://t.co/VgpdKDUPpd
National Inventory Heading Negative
At current pace, the national inventory data will have some negative year-over-year weekly data. Read books, don't burn them. 🫡 https://t.co/pV6P6SxOka
National Inventory Set to Turn Negative, Price Cuts Decline
The National Inventory is expected to turn negative at some point this year, and the percentage of price cuts is lower compared to last year. Whoever you're getting your housing info from, I would question them about this. https://t.co/AHHEytiMoR
Potential Negative YoY Inventory by April if Seasonal Rise Delayed
We should be getting the national seasonal inventory increase soon, but if, for some reason, that doesn't happen, we will have negative year-over-year inventory data by the end of March or Early April Note: For the worse than 2008 crowd...
Pending Sales Rise YoY, Driving Inventory Decline
Another week of positive year-over-year growth in our weekly pending sales data, and it's biting inventory lower now. 😉 A lot more with tracker article this weekend
Mortgage Spreads Curb Rates Amid Iran War Concerns
Mortgage spreads continue to keep mortgage rates in check as Iran war sp... https://t.co/iBMRx6aFsB via @YouTube
Inventory Surged Pre‑recession, Now Below Normal Levels
Home sales peaked in 2005 Home Sales crashed from 2005 to 2008 Inventory spiked before the recession started 2005 2.5 million Inventory 2007 4,000,000 Inventory Currently at 1.22 million Normal is 2-2.5 million Credit channels have run inventory channels for...
Discard Outdated Housing Debt Bubble Narrative
You have to let go of the housing debt bubble premise from the past — that's an old battle that no longer exists, you're chasing a ghost here. https://t.co/DV4aV0RuyM
Homeowner Numbers Stagnant; New Laws Fuel Economic Shift
That is not the scale of homeowners in America for 15 years now. The QM laws of 2010 and the 2005 BK reform law changed a lot for American economics https://t.co/SfPRuod5EC
Rising PITI Costs Shatter 2020‑24 Sales Threshold
Total PITI costs surged for housing and in a QM lending environment that was set to crush sales. I had a price model limit for 2020-2024: if we didn't surpass 23% during those five years, we would be okay; we...
US Homebuilding Follows Demand, Halts at 120K Units
As a country, we simply don't ever build on a supply-first model; we only build based on our demand curve. This is why the builders pause when total completed units for sale just hit 120K, for decades https://t.co/S6RwyAA3hO
Homeowners Cling to Low Rates, yet Many Still Move
Given this situation, millions of Americans could afford and even need to move, but they stay in homes they no longer want because they do not want to lose their low mortgage rates. Yet each quarter, people have given up...
War in Iran and Inflation Push Mortgage Rates Near 6%
Today’s podcast discusses a theory of mine on why #mortgagerates are near 6%, with hotter inflation data and the war with Iran driving up oil prices. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #economics #realestate #housing #chartdaddy
Purchase Applications Rise YoY, Five Weeks Double‑Digit Growth
Yes, it's true that even with the snow this year which is melting away, purchase application data is up year over year every week this year, with 5 weeks showing double-digit growth. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Mortgage Rates Nearing Sub‑6% Despite Week’s Volatility
Even with all the madness of this week #mortgagerates are almost back below 6% #realestate #housing #chartdaddy #mortgagespreads
10-Year Yield Stagnates
10-year yield action this week 🥱 considering all that has happened, maybe jobs Friday changes that https://t.co/30TFujFiHs
Yesterday’s Pricing Event Predicts Today’s Market Move
Today's podcast discusses yesterday's market pricing event, and today's market action isn't surprising to me. I encourage people to listen to this for a better understanding. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
2% Inflation Won’t Trigger 3% Mortgage Rates
2% inflation won't lead to 3% mortgage rates with the Fed at neutral policy. https://t.co/TpEKz1u8Cu
Economic Wild
Today's topic is #economic wildcards; this was prepared before the Iran situation began, but that topic was discussed. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #realestate #housing #chartdaddy
2023 Spread Surge Pushes Mortgages to 7.17%
The worst levels of the spreads in 2023 resulted in 7.17% mortgage rates today instead of 5.99%. https://t.co/PkASya1lri
Demand Rises, Inventory Falls Amid Mortgage Rate Tension
What will happen? What did happen with the housing data last week? Demand went up, inventory went down, but I also have a special section about #mortgagerares and the conflict. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
Snow Data Vanishes, Hits Weekly Housing Report
On this note, snow data is totally fading away from our weekly housing, one more existing home sales report that gets impacted, and that's it
Housing Inventory and New Listings Dip, See Weekend Tracker
Housing Inventory and new listings took a noticeble dip but I do explain it in this weekend's tracker
Mortgage Rates Mirror 10‑year Yield Plus Spread
The slow dance with the 10-year yield and mortgage rates has been happening for decades. You just add the mortgage spread variable here, too https://t.co/gavjysTwDz
Rates Slip Even as Inflation Heat Rises
Why did rates and bond yields drop today despite a hot inflation report? #Labor over #inflation. #mortgagerates #realestate #chartdaddy
Permits
Permits and builders' confidence data would be more solid if that were the case. https://t.co/N1nLoES68j
Shelter‑driven Inflation Easing as Vacancies Rise, Wages Slow
Fed doves have happy tears, since over 40% of CPI inflation is due to shelter and wage growth is slowing down. Rising rental vacancies mean it's unlikely to see breakaway inflation again. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #mortgagerates #inflation #economics #realestate #chartdaddy
Housing Market Snapshot: Latest Home Price Index Insights
Today’s podcast covers the state of the union housing talking points and the recent home price index reports @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy
Rental Vacancies Stay Low, Supporting Mortgage Rates
Rental vacancy data has been the quietly positive story for #mortgagerares for over a year now. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #economics #chartdaddy
First-Time Homebuyers Are Far Younger than 40
40-Year-Old Virgin was a funny movie, but it's not the age of the first-time home buyer in America https://t.co/wcVOoa450Q
Home Prices Stay Sticky Without Massive Supply Shock
The history of homeprices going back over 80 years. It's rare for nominal home prices to fall; it's super rare to have a massive nominal housing price crash. Home prices are sticky unless you have massive supply and distress sales...
Rising Sales, Inventory, and Prices Co‑occurred Historically
The reason I draw these black lines in 1980's, 1990's, and 2000s It was common that we had rising sales, rising inventory, and rising prices together, a lot of people = rising inventory with pricing falling on this site (This...
Weekly Sales Dip Yet Up 12% YoY Amid Snow Melt
Purchase application data update -5% week to week +12% year over year So far this year, even with a higher bar to work with, every week has had positive year-over-year growth The last 2 weeks, our weekly pending sales data have...
Housing Inventory Down 2.6 M From 2008 Levels
For those asking about the gap in this chart today vs 2008 2008: 4,000,000 existing home sales 2008: 3.8 million active inventory Currently active inventory here is 1,220,000 roughly a 2.6 million gap Normal inventory levels are actually 2-2.5 million
Home Prices Stay Resilient Across 2.75%-18% Rates
The history of home prices when rates ranged from 2.75% to 18% during this period. https://t.co/I0aE7X40Jt
Weekend Tracker Shows Positive Housing Market Amid Crazy Headlines
There are a lot of crazy headlines, and the weekend tracker was positive. We discuss it all today. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #economics
Mortgage Spreads Push Rates Under 6% Despite 10‑yr Yield
#mortgagespreads have allowed rates to get below 6% without the 10-year yield below 4% @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Warsh Chairmanship Could Push Mortgage Rates Near Zero
How low can mortgage rates go with tariff ruling and Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair? https://t.co/eEzHs3zcYh
Pending Sales Rebound, Prices Drop, Inventory Set to Rise
It was a good week - Weekly Pending sales back to year-over-year growth with new listings Other details - Price cut % is down over 1% year over year - Total active seasonal inventory increase should start soon
Limited Migration Saved
If the migration to a few states didn’t slow down this chart could have been worse. In this light, team higher rates won 🫡 https://t.co/YrBc6tLU0D