LTV Hits Historic Lows, Unchartable Since 2008
The total LTV data is so low now that I can't even chart it back to 2008 when it was running back in the mid '80s 💀😏🎭 #housing #realestate #economics #mortgage #chartdaddy @housingwire @sarahteresa6
National Housing Inventory Growth Plummets From 33% to 4.7%
National Housing Inventory growth has slowed from the peak of 33% YoY last year to now, just 4.67% However, be mindful that the year-over-year comps are a big variable here. Just like it is with Florida's negative YoY inventory...
Better Mortgage Spreads Keep Rates a Full Percent Lower
If we had the worst mortgage spread levels in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.45% today, not 6.45%. If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.07% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates...
2026 Jobs Data Shows Early Improvement Over 2025
As crazy as this sounds, the jobs data has improved in 2026 compared to 2025 so far. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #economics #jobs #chartdaddy
Builders’ Rate Cuts Mask Deeper Housing Supply Misalignment
If it weren't the builders paying down rates, housing permits would be worse today. We will never build housing the way people want because we aren't a supply-first economy; the demand curve needs to align with it, and rental vacancies...
Low Claims Make 15K Monthly Jobs Viable
As long as jobless claims stay low, adding 15,000 jobs per month for 3 years will be acceptable for a neutral policy.
Past Low LTVs Preceded Credit Boom; Today’s Opposite
Loan-to-value data was low back then. In 2006, only 4% of homes were underwater, but we experienced a massive credit leverage boom, with down payment data dropping to 21st lows in 2008 after credit broke in 2005. It's the complete...
Mortgage Spreads Hold Steady Amid Global Turmoil
Considering all the drama in the world, not bad, hug a #mortgage spread. #realestate #housing #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
From 23% Underwater to Record Home Equity Gains
In 2010 we had over 23% of the homes underwater; today, we have massive home equity @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #mortgagerates #economics #chartdaddy
6%+ Mortgage Rates Outnumber 3% or Lower
Yes, it's true — no April Fools' joke — more people have rates of 6% or higher than those with 3% or lower. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #economics #chartdaddy
Mortgage Rate Lockdown Myth Remains Unfounded
One of the most misunderstood housing economic stories in this cycle is the mortgage rate lockdown premise, which I never bought into, even in the last decade when it was being discussed. https://t.co/ae3tzVWdb9
Geopolitical Tensions, Not Jobs Data, Drive Mortgage Rates
Does jobs week matter for mortgage rates as the Iran war intensifies? https://t.co/eNWu4sPUwS via @YouTube
Fed Aims to Curb Wages to Hit 2% Inflation
The Fed would like this lower to get wage growth back down to 3% or lower to target 2% inflation.
Only One Nationwide Home Price Crash in 84 Years
There have been many economic cycles, recessions, and rising mortgage rates since 1942. In 84 years, there has only been one national home price crash period. https://t.co/AjoH2agyyy
Four Years of Credit Stress Preceded 2008 Recession
We had 4 years of credit stress built up before the 2008 recession with an oil shock back then https://t.co/OjLbnx5L9R
Florida Inventory Drops; National Growth Slows to 5.7%
Did you know Florida's inventory is down year over year? Also, the growth rate of inventory nationally decreased from 33% to 5.69%. With a HousingWire subscription, you can access local, state, city, and ZIP code data with multiple data points....
Post‑2010 Oil Shocks Managed Better, Yet Jobs Lag
Post-2010 data oil shocks were handled better than pre-2010 oil shocks, but duration is key here at this stage, with job growth at the 21st-century lows https://t.co/FndShr2Oi6
Florida Inventory Drop Reflects Elevated Base, Not 2008 Crisis
Be mindful that the inventory decline we are seeing in Florida was working from an elevated level, and since it's not 2008 or worse than 2008, the decline needs context on a year-over-year basis. Try not to overthink this one,...
Local Conflict Could Keep Brent Above $125 Longer
This is the advantage of having the conflict on your home turf and close targets. How does Brent not go above 125 and stay higher for longer if this escalates? https://t.co/gDEQNzeiGJ
Housing Data Stays Steady Amid Global Turmoil
Considering all the drama we have had all year, AI, private credit, and an epic snowstorm, and now the Iran conflict, the housing data has been mostly stable & boring for now
Yearly Growth Persists; Weekend Tracker Report Awaits
Still showed yearly growth this week, it will be an interesting weekend tracker report this weekend
Conflict's Dual Impact: Housing Booms or Crashes
Today's podcast covers the best and worse outcome for #housing due to the conflict. #housing #mortgagerates #oil #bond
Pending Home Sales Remain Positive Year‑Over‑Year
Housing data is still postive year over year with our weekly pending sales data; if there were no war, it would have easily grown in 2026. In any case, more on this with the weekend tracker. 🫡
Weighing Crypto for Home Purchases: Risks and Rewards
Should you use crypto to buy your new home? - ABC News - https://t.co/XTjulfuzyY via @ABC
6.64% Rate Threshold Determines Mortgage Demand
6.64% has always been my line in sand for rates when they tick higher from here demand slows when they go lower toward 6% things improve. Hug a mortgage spread today https://t.co/DeRZntaHsC
2026 Target Missed: 4.6% Goal Unmet
Not how I envisioned my peak 4.60% premise for 2026 🤨 but here we are striking at the door https://t.co/w1Vwd6cxs9
Five Boomers Can’t Explain Five Million Home Sales
Near 5,000,000 total home sales, even if you couldn’t do basic math, the rational of 5 boomers holding up near 5,000,000 sales is very unlikely 😏 stop burning books
War's Economics Drive Housing Market Turbulence
Logan Mohtashami on the economics of war and its effect on housing https://t.co/23QO1ifkKU via @YouTube
Higher Rates Above 6.6% Dampening Demand
This is where the data in the past starts to get hit as in the past few years rates moving above 6.64% and above 7% impacts demand https://t.co/oiZjW5mQiD
Redfin's Seller Data Is Misleading, Beware the Hype
If you men haven't learned that Redfin is playing you like a chump with their most sellers ever data, just look at their weekly pricing data since their chart came out. You guys are getting hustled. https://t.co/OJouoW3HqA
War‑Time Economics Drive Oil, Bonds, Mortgage Rates
Today’s podcast, ignore the morning hair, is about war time #economics. #oil #bonds #mortgagerates #chartdaddy @housingwire @sarahteresa6
Supply and Distress Drive Home Price Cycles
Supply and distress supply are the big keys; we have 84 years of data on this and many economic cycles with nominal national home prices data. https://t.co/7ojUXodFpL
Sky‑High Rates Stall Existing Home Sales, New Sales Flat
Rates getting to 18% made is less affordable back then, different ways to measure this, but prices & rates exploded. A big variable on why existing home sales haven't finished a year under 4,000,000 the last 3 with with new...
1970s Rates Spiked, yet Home Prices Outpaced COVID Era
From 1977 to 1979, mortgage rates rose from 8% to 13%, yet home prices still grew faster than during the sub-4% COVID years. Rates peaked around 18%, with spreads being quite large at nearly 6%. The spread market today is...
Past Home Price Booms Surpassed Covid, No Crash
The hottest home price growth period was 1943-1947, with no bubble crash afterward, and 1977-1979 had even hotter price increases than during Covid, also without a bubble crash. If people bothered to read books instead of burning them, they would...
Fixed‑rate 30‑year Loans Stabilize Debt as Wages Climb
30-year fixed loan. Fixed debt cost and rising wages, even with more people with 6% plus mortgage rates vs 3% and lower. https://t.co/fLDxpBRw15
Mortgage Applications Up YoY, Weekly Demand Drops
#Mortgage purchase application data remains positive year over year, but weekly demand declined last week. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #realestate #economics #mortgagerstes #chartdaddy
Housing Bubble Persists Since 2012, Now Worse than 2008
Since 2012 housing has always been in a bubble and it's housing 2008 or worse ☺️😏😁🫡 https://t.co/l2fykhXDfn
Purchase Applications Dip 5% Weekly, YoY Growth Slows
Purchase application data, although still positive year over year, showed a week-to-week decline of 5% and the YoY growth slowed down. https://t.co/1ZaOtoeLuN
Explaining This Week’s Mortgage, Oil, and Bond Turmoil
@housingwire @sarahteresa6 We try to explain the madness if this week with #mortgagerates #oil and #bonds with this conflict. #economics #chartdaddy
Rates to Exceed 7% with Worsening Spreads
2023-2025 rates would already be over 7% with the worse levels of spreads each year. https://t.co/2c2qtO9Hlx
Housing Market Set to Grow If Iran Tensions Spare Rates
Housing market is poised for growth this year if Iran conflict doesn't raise rates, says HousingWire Mohtashami https://t.co/ZBWUvaA7UQ
New Home Sales Yet to Slip Below 2022 Lows
If new homes can fall below the 2022 lows in sales for at least 5-7 months, that would do it, but their purchase application data hasn't shown that yet. https://t.co/Jv2eyLip1u
Spreads Peaked 2023, Normalize by 2026 After 2022 Rise
2023 had the peak spreads of the cycle at 3.11%. Since then, it has gradually improved each year. By 2026, spreads approached normal levels again. February 2022 is when the spreads started to worsen. https://t.co/hK3qQPLtIs
Brace for Market Turbulence If No New News
Given all the news in the past 24 hours, if nothing new is announced in the next 24 hours, strap in—things are about to get intense. #oil #bonds #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
Existing Home Sales Near Record Lows, Sensitive to 7% Rates
We have to be mindful that existing home sales, unlike new home sales, are still working from all-time lows; the bar is very low for growth. Sales haven't collapsed since the end of 2022, no matter where rates went, but...
Florida Inventory Drop Easier; Comps Soften Through Mid‑June
Also, be mindful that the inventory decline in Florida YoY was working from an easier bar to do so. Just like the national data, the YoY comps get easier up until mid-June. https://t.co/z4GnIpxb5B
Rare 100K+ Listings Forecast 80K Breakthrough
The last time we had new listings above 100K May 24th, 2019 at 101,000 June 12, 2015, at 110,000 It's only happened a few times post 2013 During the housing crash years, it ran at 250K-400K for years We can break over 80K...
Current Rates Far Below Worst‑case Mortgage Spread Scenarios
If we had the worst levels of mortgage spreads in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.67% today, not 6.53% If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.29% today. If we had the worst levels of 2025,...
Prolonged High Oil Prices Harm Economy Over Time
A look at #Oil prices, post 2010 we have been able to handle elevated prices, but elevated prices and rates aren't a positive when duration is applied #energy #Economics #Chartdaddy