Investment Funds Now Dominate UST Demand, Up to 75%
Top row: In 2011, "Investment Funds" (proxy for retail investors) were 17% of 2-, 3-, & 5y UST demand (left), & 25% of 7-, 10-, and 30y demand (right). Bottom row: By 2026: "Investment Funds" were 75% & 70% of those same two categories of USTs, respectively. Source: TBAC https://t.co/c0rborrnYu
US Plans T‑Bill‑Backed Stablecoins to Fund Deficits
"It's fine - we'll just shift issuance to the front end, have Warsh cut rates & flood the world with T-Bill backed stablecoins to finance US deficits..." https://t.co/pC68U8KAWt
Dollar Dominance Trades US Gains for Chinese Factory Control
The charts rhyme b/c of "dollar dominance": China exports a lot of cars (& other things) US exports a lot of stocks & bonds (but not much else on net) The ultimate outcome = China gets US factories & controlling stakes in US...
Price Controls Temporarily Bridge Futures‑Physical Gap, Then Collapse
Another way to say "disconnect between futures & physical" is "price controls." Price controls work for a while...until they don't.
Fertilizer Giant Shows War‑Driven Price Surge Amid Supply Chain Chaos
Major US fertilizer company...whose end market product's price is SOARING as a result of the war...and yet 👇. "Supply Chain Breaks 101" class just started; take good notes, the lessons contained in this earnings release will be on the final...
China Acquires US Defense Assets Cheaply as Americans Fund Deficits
“Dollar dominance” as defined by many here on X = China buys up the US defense industrial base on the cheap while US Boomers & Banks buy negative real yielding USTs to finance US deficits (aka lose capital on a...
Reserve Currency Shift Drops DJIA 45% Amid 10× Debt Rise
Agree, on both the impact of going broke in the reserve currency & "denominator blindness": Since the March 1972 date of that article, DJIA (which benefits from survivorship bias) is down 45% in terms of the prior world reserve currency (gold,...
End‑of‑Putin and End‑of‑Dollar Myths Overlook Nuance
"The end of Putin" stories almost as enduring as "the end of the dollar" stories... Reality is more nuanced in both cases (indeed, as it is in most things.)
Hint Reveals Why Hormuz Reopening Stalls, Questions Unasked
“I’m not trying to solve a puzzle here, Dr. Kimble…” “Well, I am trying to solve a puzzle…& I just found a big piece.” This story offers a hint about what’s taking so long to re-open Hormuz, but no one seems to...
Yield Spikes Don’t Predict Iran Peace Deal Leaks
"Professor, don't you find it curious that a new US-Iran peace deal leaks almost every time the 10y UST yield breaks 4.4% on the upside?" "Actually, if I think about it, I don't find it curious at all." https://t.co/aMqLenpJp8
Gold Beats Oil as US's Top Export, Flows to China
For the 5th month in the last 6, "Nonmonetary Gold" was again the single biggest export of the US in March. US gold exports were 1.7x > oil; 2x > than Rx preparations, 2.5x > aircraft engines. Biggest destination for US gold...
UST Auctions Trigger Record MOVE Spike and VIX Surge
The Great MOVE UST Volatility Crash of April 2026: Blue = MOVE; red = VIX; green = Oil Mar 24, 25, 26 = 3 straight ugly UST auctions Mar 26 = MOVE hits 115 (near dysfunctional levels) Mar 27 = MOVE & VIX peak...
Massive USD Deposits Make Swap Lines Unnecessary, Says Munger
"Invert...always invert." -Charlie Munger For example, w/ $14T in USD deposits offshore, why would the UAE (or any nation) ever need a USD swap line? If a guy w/a $14B bank deposit needed a home equity line just to pay his bills,...
OPEC Needed as Price Anchor in Dollar‑driven World
OPEC is only needed to manage oil prices in a world where the reserve currency has no other anchor, because only a fool would sell finite oil reserves for infinite (non-gold-backed) dollars. IMO, this may be a big signal, but perhaps...
Germany’s Output Fell; Economy Can’t Ignore 7‑10% Oil Loss
A chart that discredits two current common views at once: 1. "Germany output didn't suffer during the 2022 oil/energy shock." 2. "The global economy can do just fine without 7-10% of its oil supplies indefinitely." https://t.co/ghhZPrhApE