USD Reserve Status Threatened If Commodity Contracts Fail
Good point & good question - what happens to the USD's reserve status if USD commodity contracts are broken on a widespread basis? What's the point of holding USDs if they are declared worthless for commodities when inconvenient? See 2022 seizure of Russian FX reserves. #gold
Hormuz Closure Would Crash Markets, Boost Commodities and Inflation
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
Question Saudi Drone Deals Using Inversion Thinking
"Invert, always invert." -Charlie Munger For example, "Why isn't Saudi buying any and all such drones from the US?" There are only a few possible answers; none of them fit with US investor consensus views. 🤔 BN 03/12 15:35 *SAUDI ARAMCO IN TALKS...
Pentagon Knew Vietnam Unwinnable, yet Kept Sending Troops.
The Pentagon Papers revealed that the US Pentagon knew the Vietnam war was unwinnable by 1966 and yet kept sending US boys to die anyway... After 9 more years and ~55,000 more dead GI's, we were forced to hurriedly evacuate Saigon...
Early Input Pricing Shields Farmers Amid Iran War
Friend of mine that runs a large agricultural operation just texted: "We locked in pricing for farm inputs late last year & early this year before the Iran War started, which is good because now our suppliers will not even provide...
Hormuz Closure Threatens Markets, Fuels Inflation Surge
...and yet, the Strait of Hormuz is STILL closed, for the 13th day. Why? 🤔 At some point, investors are going to understand why this is; when they do, it is going to be very bad for both stocks AND...
Iran Targets US Markets; Conflict Strains Credit Channels
March 3, 2026 edition of FFTT: "Iran doesn't need to defeat the US military; just the UST market" March 11, 2026: "S&P has warned that the Middle East conflict is beginning to strain credit channels across multiple sectors" https://t.co/pnftNUeht5
Israeli Missile‑intercept Footage Now Banned From Media
"Images of Israeli air defenses intercepting incoming missiles had been a major part of the coverage at the start of the war, and was a feature in the coverage of the June 2025 war. However, this is now forbidden." -France24,...
US, Israel, Iran Trade Bluffs Over Missile Capabilities
US and Israel: “This means Iran is out of missiles with warheads lighter than one ton.” Iran: “We think Israel is largely out of interceptor missiles.” High stakes poker to find out who has been bluffing about missile capabilities and who hasn’t...
Japan Lifts YCC; Iran Targets UST Market Vulnerability
10y UST yield (blue, RS1) USDJPY * oil (red, LS) USDCNY * oil (green, RS2) Since Japan lifted YCC on 10y JGBs 👇 "Iran doesn't have to beat the US military; it just has to beat the UST market" -Title of 3/3/26...
Trump Admin Anticipates Prolonged Oil Disruptions Amid Russia‑Iran Ties
A sophisticated man like Bessent “unsanctioning” Russian oil as Russia is… 1. Openly supporting Iran 2. Reportedly helping Iran target US assets 3. Still fighting Ukraine …strongly suggests the Trump Admin knows these oil disruptions are going to be longer than expected.
Gold as Safety Valve, Oil Price Spikes Threaten Global Chaos
In theory, this looks like they are trying to let gold be a release valve of the coming oil inflation. If so, this would be smart IMO, because if gold goes to $7,000, nothing happens…but if oil goes to $130, all...
US AI Supercomputers in Middle East Shift Global Race
Look at how much US AI supercomputer cluster capacity was planned for/installed in UAE and Saudi Have not seen any strategists discuss yet what this means for US v. China AI race Seems important. Thoughts? https://t.co/23plcm9k0V
US Urges Oil Shift to Pressure China, Russia
"I know I said last April that 'as the debtor country, America has all the leverage v. China'...& I know we are actively trying to choke out both you AND Russia...but could you buy less oil from Russia & more...
US ISR Support to Ukraine Raises Escalation Risks
Last March, the New York Times wrote that the US was supplying detailed ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) to Ukraine so that Ukraine could more effectively kill Russian targets (with US-made weapons.) We appear to be approaching dangerous territory. https://t.co/aBoGhQCU2x
US Debt Surge Meets Historic Oil Shock, Spiraling Risks
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 32%, deficit/GDP was 1%, & NIIP/GDP was +10%. There was no level of inflation & rates that could push the US into a debt spiral. Today those #’s are 122%, 6%, & -90%, & 4.8% 10y...
Russia Shifts Gas to China, Threatens Europe Supply
September 2, 2025: Russia and China sign major new gas pipeline deal March 4, 2026: Putin says Russia may halt gas supplies to Europe https://t.co/kEjAnIqyrP
Yield Rise Minimal Despite Growing Middle East Tensions
Mideastern commodity force majeures beginning to populate my X feed Western company evacuations of Mideastern countries beginning to populate my X feed Western investor consensus still heavily weighted to this being a short conflict. Yet 10y UST yields are only up to 4.08%?...
US Weapon Supply Hinges on Chinese Components Despite Oil Strikes
"Amateurs talk tactics; professionals study logistics." -USMC Gen. Robert Barrow Many rightfully noting US hitting Chinese oil supplies; few noting that US cannot restock weapons without Chinese components. Left headline: Wednesday of last week Right headline: WSJ today https://t.co/N0oRvB87DA
Bond Rally Threatened by Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure
Bond bulls that were celebrating 10y UST yields dropping <4% on Friday waking up Saturday morning to reports that the Strait of Hormuz is possibly being closed 👇 https://t.co/pg9o9TPdO5
US Ignores China AI Threat to Corporate Profits
Notable IMO b/c thus far this sell-off narrative seems to be focused solely on how US AI could disrupt the US. No one seems to be worried yet about what happens to US corporate profits if China AI disrupts the US. If...
AI Job Losses Could Spark Credit and Debt Crisis Soon
The question is NOT "Will AI take all the white-collar jobs or not?" (It won't.) The questions are: 1. "How many white-collar jobs does AI have to take to trigger a consumer credit, & then government receipt & global sovereign...
AI's White‑Collar Disruption Inevitable, Timing Only Question
When industrial companies were rewarded by the stock market for moving production to China, it was like a starting gun going off for jobs moving to China. Fade calls that AI will not be that disruptive to white collar jobs; the...
Redirect Chinese Savings to Gold to Preserve USD Dominance
“The goal is to keep the USD as the world's transaction rail without agreeing to absorb unlimited foreign savings into USTs” Exactly. Separating from China & re-shoring requires redirecting Chinese surpluses into a neutral reserve asset (gold)…and that requires 5-figure...
China Swapped US Treasuries for Commodities via BRI
How China largely sold out of their net UST exposure yrs ago AND cornered critical minerals without ever impacting UST or commodity markets: Lend USDs along Belt & Road (BRI), repayable in either USD, CNY, or physical commodities This amounted to swapping...
AI Could Be the First Non‑displacing Productivity Wave
L: Productivity miracle 1.0 - autos (white) replace horses (orange) in 10 yrs; horses never recover R: Productivity miracle 2.0 - China replaces US manufacturing workers; US mfg workers down ~35% in 10 yrs Productivity miracle 3.0 - AI v. white-collar jobs;...
Weaker Dollar Spurs Record Foreign Inflows
1. Chart in original post shows the weaker USD (DXY) gets, the more flows will move into USD assets...& DXY had biggest drop in 52 yrs in 1H25👇 2. So as long as DXY keeps falling 10-15%/yr, foreign** inflows will grow **37%...
China’s Defense Surplus Funding Threatens US Corporate Influence
Sad to watch so many analysts and economists argue that it is a "win" to allow China to continue to deploy surpluses earned from making a significant % of the US military for us 👇into US equity stakes which China...
Foreign Central Banks Sell USTs Even as Dollar Weakens
One of a number of potentially important macro divergences that occurred in 2H25 is shown below. For the prior 10+ years, foreign Central Banks sold USTs when the USD rose and bought USTs when the USD fell. In 2H25, foreign CB’s sold...