First 60 Pages Reveal the Unseen Sprint Ahead
If you want to know the path we are now sprinting down, read the first 60 pages of this book. The Brits never saw it coming either, until it was too late. https://t.co/oX1NeGWhO7
Ohio Guard F‑16 Wing Conducts Week‑Long Night Flights
US Air National Guard F-16 fighter wing in Ohio conducting night flying operations all this week 🤔 Source: WTOL https://t.co/H3RjUL5aUQ
Unexpected Twist Challenges Narratives on China's Gold Sales
Big non-sequitur to multiple narratives in March about official gold selling & China's level of desperation. 👇
Putin’s Eurozone Bid Once Threatened US‑Europe Ties
Here’s another one: Many on X seem to forget that Europe also tried to separate from the US 16 years ago, when Putin said Russia would join the Eurozone, which would have married Russian energy with German engineering, a combo...
EU Tried Pricing Iraqi Oil in Euros, US Halted Independence
Many on X seem to forget that Europe tried to separate from the US 26 years ago, when the EU arranged for Iraq to sell oil in EUR instead of USD (Source: CNN Int’l👇) The EU would have been independent of...
Innovation Requires Production: Rethink USD Reserve for Reindustrialization
“To innovate, you must make.” -INTC CEO Andy Grove, 2011 The reality is we cannot and will not reindustrialize unless we change USD reserve status structure to a system with a neutral reserve asset instead of USTs; it’s a fundamental double-entry...
BTC's March Resilience Stems From February Crash Rebound
I've been surprised by the resilience of BTC over the last month. Initially I thought it might be being bid by flight capital out of the Mideast, but when I look at BTC v. software (IGV), it looks more like BTC...
Gold Leads US Exports, Offsetting Trade Deficits
The US’ single biggest export in February was “non-monetary gold.” Gold has been the US’ biggest export in 4 out of the past 5 months (it was the 2nd biggest export in the 5th mth.) Trump is partially settling US trade deficits...
COVID's Shutdown Cut Oil Demand 9%; Deeper Cuts Impossible without Crisis
In COVID oil demand was down 9.2% y/y. All it took was shutting down much of the economy & handing out stimmy’s. You think we can shut the economy more than COVID, with no stimulus and without stock & bond markets, banking...
Iran Turns to Euro, France Pays in Yuan
Iranians accepting EUR....or French paying in CNY (after selling gold to China to get CNY)?
Gold Sellers Beware: Iran's CNY Deal Triggers Arbitrage
They’ll hold a meeting, realize they can’t open it if the US couldn’t, & then just agree to pay Iran in CNY… …and the easiest/only way to secure CNY is by buying physical gold in USD and selling that gold to...
Logistics, Not Tactics, Determines Missile Priority Amid Chinese Supply Crunch
More evidence US and Israeli interceptor missiles are running down faster than Iranian offensive weapons US, Israel, & Iran are all dependent on China’s factory base to replenish their missiles. Who gets priority? Logistics > tactics.
Critical US Grid Insight Over
This fact has been emphasized to me for years by execs at a US private electrical infrastructure I have an investment in… …yet it is ignored by most geopolitical analysts and policymakers because it is too inconvenient to acknowledge: https://t.co/CODqrwbKm1
Beijing’s 2002 Strategy Exploited US’s War on Terror
Left: "Much of Beijing's current strategy toward the US was laid down in 2002, when the CCP concluded China faced an unprecedented 20-year 'period of strategic opportunity' [due to] the GWOT distracting US leaders." Right: Cover of this week's The Economist...
Supply‑chain Disruptions Are only Now Fueling Inflation
…and the inflation from global supply chain breakdowns that have already begun have likely only just begun being reflected. 😳
Graham’s Shift Signals Trump’s Hidden 4‑D Iran Strategy
Why is Lindsey Graham (arguably the warmonger-in-chief of the Iran war) now advocating for “winding down” the Iran war, given that by all accounts, it is an elaborate 4-D chess play by Trump that is going according to plan or...
Foreign Central Banks Cut UST Holdings to 2012 Low
"Foreign central bank holdings of USTs at NY Fed fall to lowest level since 2012 in wake of Iran war" Via @seaniechaos https://t.co/VIiwJqrZAY
New Iranian Regime, Yet Hormuz Remains Closed
So Iran is “defeated” (per Karoline Leavitt yesterday) with a “new and more reasonable regime” in charge…and yet Hormuz is still not open? 🤔 https://t.co/HQqiKfhcrY
Weekly Market Cycle: Optimism Monday, Panic Wednesday, Crash Friday
Interestingly, last week multiple senior fund managers pointed out to me that this pattern has held for each of the last 3 weeks: “TACO/positive news” Monday, “uh-oh” by Wednesday, “dumpster fire” by Friday
10‑Year Treasury Yield Signals Oil’s Impending Downturn
Sec. Bessent, February 2025: "Judge us by the 10y UST yield." 10y UST yield (blue, RS) v. oil, since Bessent said that 👇 "3 Arrows" about to turn into "0-for-3 Arrows": https://t.co/goqhygmgv6
US Food and Energy Self‑sufficiency Is an Illusion
US is "self-sufficient in food & energy"... ...but US food & energy supply chains are now HIGHLY centralized, fragile, & long (& usually stretch back to China.) "US is self-sufficient in food & energy" is like the man who drowned in a...
Hormuz Closure Likely Drives 10‑Year Yields Higher
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
U.S. Bases in Gulf Largely Uninhabitable, Kuwait Worst
“Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage.” -NYT just now First MSM admission I’ve seen of...
2019 Book Predicted Missile‑Drone Dominance
2019 book that predicted the “missiles + drones > naval ships” dynamic we are watching play out in real time in Hormuz. Martyanov’s warnings apparently fell on deaf ears in DC unfortunately. https://t.co/4nsMkPDhTm
Hormuz Closure Threatens World Economy, Outweighs US Strikes
...and yet Hormuz remains closed. The US bragging about how many targets we've hit in Iran while Hormuz remains closed is the geopolitical equivalent of "Every kid gets a trophy", because Hormuz closure means the world economy is on the clock. Another...
Trump Hints at Hormuz Delay Due to Rapid Interceptions
One of the charms of Trump is that he will sometimes tell you what is really happening if you read between the lines. For example, here he all but told us the real reason Hormuz isn't open yet. I would think interception...
US Yield Rise Threatens Debt Spiral Amid Oil Tensions
Update: 10y UST yields (blue, RS1) USDJPY*oil (red, LS) USDCNY*oil (green, RS2) Hormuz is still closed; China still has several years of oil inventories; 10y UST yields are ~20-30 bps from triggering a US & global debt spiral. What happens first? Let's watch. https://t.co/ixdOHnatCg
Long-Term Treasuries Turn Risk‑On, Driven by Hedge‑Fund Basis Trades
LT USTs are now a "risk-on" asset: 10y UST yields UP on risk-off, DOWN on risk-on. This is the price action you would expect when 37% of net issuance of UST notes & bonds since 2022 have been bought by "Cayman...
US Debt Surge Mirrors 1980s Argentine Crisis
In 1973, US debt/GDP was 31%...today it's 122%. US fiscal deficit/GDP was 1%...today, it's 6% on its way to 8-10% (or more if the war drags on.) Translation: "That 70s Show" will feel like "1980s Argentina with US characteristics."
Long‑term UST Holders Lost ~80% Purchasing Power
Joke's on you - anyone that has owned LT USTs for the past 10 years has already had their purchasing power destroyed (ZB priced in gold down ~80% since global CB's stopped buying USTs on net in 3q14 & ramped...
GCC and Israeli Power Plants Targeted Within 72 Hours
…which means GCC and Israeli power plants will begin getting hit within 72 hours from this exact point in time. 😳 https://t.co/RtWko7NOgm
China Won’t Be the Biggest Loser if Hormuz Closes
Many commentators on Iran war have seemingly not thought any further ahead than “China is hurt most by Hormuz closing” Below is just one small example of why that view is so wrong 👇
TACO Plans Falter Without Open Hormuz, Market Pressure
Third attempt at TACO this week (one early in the week by Trump, one Thursday by Netanyahu - was that a NACHO?) Both of those failed because Iran and the bond market both get a say. This TACO attempt and all...
Gold Slides Below $4500, Biggest Weekly Drop Since 1983
GOLD FALLS TO UNDER $4500, SET FOR ITS BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL SINCE 1983. - @FirstSquawk Gold volatility in USD is doing what gold volatility did in 1920s Weimar German Reichsmarks, which makes perfect sense once you understand our present context. Chart...
War with Iran Could Collapse Global Financial System
If I wanted to discredit US neocons & their foreign sponsors for a generation, I would give them exactly what they have always wanted: A big war with Iran, at their urging… …that leads directly to a collapse of global financial...
B
Bessent un-sanctioned Russian oil AFTER WaPo reported Russia was helping Iran targeting US assets the way the US has been helping UKR target Russian assets... ...& yet Wall Street consensus overwhelmingly remains that "Bessent has everything under control." Fade that view, hard
Extended Hormuz Closure Threatens Sovereign Debt, Consumer Credit
If Hormuz stays closed another 3-4 weeks, it all begins to crumble...into an already-teetering global sovereign debt problem & consumer credit problem. Based on what I'm hearing, it is highly likely Hormuz will remain closed for at least another 3-4 weeks. Let's...
Late‑
10y UST yields (blue, RS) v. USDCNY (red, LS), since Russia invaded UKR in Feb-22. Something changed in late 2025 (stronger CNY v. USD and higher 10y UST yield, instead of lower.) https://t.co/hW48oZdc2B
US Intel Says China Not Planning 2027 Taiwan Invasion
US intelligence assessment admits China is not planning a 2027 Taiwan invasion, contrary to the assertions of numerous China hawks. h/t PA https://t.co/yR1D5boDrL
Briefing on Q3 2026 CPI Ahead of Midterms
Did he just get a briefing about what CPI is likely to be in 3q26, just ahead of midterms?
Hormuz Closure Sparks Oil Spike, Not Deficit Monetization
If Hormuz is still closed in a month (it likely will be), this is going to turn into "We are doing more not-QE RMP's into an oil spike, but we are NOT monetizing deficits" so fast that investors heads will...
Iran's Missile Strike Fails; Investors Still Expect Hormuz Opening
Several "dogs that didn't bark" in one headline: -Iran warned ahead of time it would hit Ras Laffan. -It fired five missiles (which it is said to be running out of.) -Four were reportedly intercepted, but one got through. -Investor consensus remains...
Power Makes People Impulsive, Risk‑Blind, Perspective‑Deficient
"Subjects under the influence of power, he found in studies spanning two decades, acted as if they had suffered a traumatic brain injury - becoming more impulsive, less risk-aware, and crucially, less adept at seeing things from other people's point...
Separating China and Russia Failing Like Hormuz Reopening
The plan to separate China and Russia appears to be going about as well as the plan to re-open Hormuz. https://t.co/77hPZR1z9w
Closing Hormuz Guarantees Outcome; Only Duration Matters
Keep Hormuz closed long enough and it is a mathematical and logistical certainty. The only debate is "How long is 'long enough' to make that happen?"
Policymakers Miss Logistics Impact of Closing Hormuz
Every US policymaker & investor we see talks about "tactics": How many Iranian ships we've sunk, how many launchers we've destroyed.... ...while ignoring what keeping Hormuz closed will do to global "logistics", even as Iran openly admits "logistics" is their whole...
Bessent Mirrors 1992 BOE: Fighting USD Collapse Over Oil
Bessent now finds himself in the position of the Bank of England in 1992 when Soros, Druckenmiller, & Bessent "broke the BOE": Trying to prevent the USD from collapsing v. oil with a finite amount of oil reserves as markets &...
Qatar, Kuwait Will Dump US Assets Amid GDP Collapse
If their GDP drops 14%, do you think Qatar and Kuwait will: a) Slash government outlays (thereby risking domestic unrest), or; b) Sell USTs & US equities “until their hands bleed” to raise USDs to buy needed goods to try to...
US Now Settles Trade Deficit with Gold Exports
3rd month out of the last 4 that the US' biggest export has been gold. Only time that's happened in at least 20 years (& probably ever.) US is de facto net settling a portion of trade its trade deficit...
Drones Undermine Russia; Hormuz Closure Un
We're told Russia has always been good at electronic warfare. Russia has been bogged down in Ukraine for four YEARS by drones, etc. US investors believe drones, etc. will not keep Hormuz closed much longer. Here's what happens if Hormuz stays closed for...