China’s Services Sector Lags High‑
According to China Daily, China's services sector comprises 58% of the country's total production (GDP), having risen from 50% in 2015. It accounts for 50% of total employment. For comparison purposes, the GDP share of the services sector is 70-80% in high-income economies while the employment share is also 70-80%. In middle-income countries, the GDP share is 50-65% while the employment share is 40-60%. https://t.co/ZncK75X5mq
Maekawa Report Reveals Why Japan-China Rebalancing Falters
I have often mentioned Japan's 1986 Maekawa Commission Report as a way of understanding why Japan's (and by extension, China's) rebalancing was never going to be easy. For those who might be interested, I asked ChatGPT to summarize the report...
Domestic EV Production, Not Cheap Imports, Lifts Standards
Canadians as consumers may dream of cheaper EV imports, but Canadians as workers and producers won't, and contrary to what many believe, it isn't cheaper imports that raise living standards. It is more domestic production. https://t.co/p3gb1UwYqv
Chinese Carmakers Battle, Profits per Vehicle Stay Razor‑thin
Yicai: Fierce competition among the 12 major listed Chinese automakers kept carmakers’ per-vehicle profits extremely slim, with three still losing money on each one sold. The highest profit per vehicle last year was at Seres, at RMB 9,936 ($1,454). https://t.co/eioFBfk7Ox
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico Illogical in Hyper‑Globalized Trade
1/3 Putting tariffs on Canada and Mexico makes no sense at all, even though they run trade surpluses with the US. That's because in a hyper-globalized world, trade imbalances are always resolved systemically, never bilaterally. https://t.co/M382OjWzJ2
High‑tech Manufacturing Drives over Half of Industrial Profit
People's Daily: "Although high-tech manufacturing accounts for less than 20% of total industrial output, it contributed 32.6% to overall industrial growth. Data for January and February showed that it accounted for 51.8% of total industrial profits." https://t.co/iazDjkrddR
China's GDP Growth only Loosely Mirrors Real Economy
CER: "There is obviously to some extent a relationship between China's GDP growth number and the real economy. Although we don’t know exactly how closely those two things match." https://t.co/ARbicIVAH8
Infrastructure Investment Fuels China’s Q1 Growth Amid Weak Consumption
1/3 NYT: "Strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus as the Chinese economy continued to grow in the first three months of the year." This is exactly it. https://t.co/nM9A94Bq3q
China's Stagnant Imports Pose Bigger Trade Challenge than Exports
1/2 Soumaya Keynes notes that while China's surging exports may be a problem for many countries, they are the smaller problem. The bigger problem is that China's imports have barely grown at all. The more general point is that free trade...
Lee Jae Myung Redirects Housing Funds to Boost Industry
1/9 The Economist discusses the determination of South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, to expand RoK industrial policy aggressively. "His plan involves diverting capital from the housing market to... https://t.co/KKRJiuWb4E
China’s New‑home Prices Dip 0.21% in March, Easing Pressure
1/3 Bloomberg: "New-home prices in 70 cities in China dropped 0.21% in March, the second consecutive month of easing pressure and the smallest decline in 11 months." https://t.co/OQEWA9QELf
China's Q1 2026 Imports Surge 19.6%, Exports Rise
1/4 On Tuesday China reported that the total value of exports in the first three months of 2026 was RMB 6,846.7 billion yuan, up 11.9% year on year, while the total value of imports was 4,991.3 billion yuan, up 19.6%. https://t.co/5TDMdkLpCw
China Q1 GDP Hits 5%, Growth Imbalance Worsens
1/8 China’s first-quarter GDP grew by 5.0%, faster than the 4.8-4.9% most polls suggested, but the composition of the growth was more unbalanced than ever, especially in March. https://t.co/Wa8M2mo1rR
China’s Growth Likely Beats IMF Forecast, Hits 4.5‑5%
1/2 SCMP: "The IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast. China – the world’s second-largest economy – is now expected to expand by 4.4 per cent this year." I, however, predict that China's GDP will grow this year by between 4.5%...
EU Must Adopt Systemic Approach to External Account Control
Good FT article on the role of Chinese investment in manufacturing in Europe. I worry however that EU policymakers may be framing the issue poorly. This should not be about managing incremental, country-by-country changes in production. Policymakers in the EU (and...