China Graduate Hiring Falls, AI Roles Surge
Caixin: "In China’s graduate job market, overall hiring volumes and average salaries are trending downward, faring worse than in 2024 and 2025. Yet, amid this widespread gloom, the demand for AI-related roles is surging." https://t.co/bSmIQdWGE5
SCMP Excels on Economy, Falters on Tech Coverage
I share some of Zichen Wang's concerns here. The SCMP has some of the best reporting in the world on China, and especially on the Chinese economy, but some of its mainland-related science and technology articles seem a little eccentric. https://t.co/BLosTuxvh4
China's Biggest HK Yuan Bond Sale Hits Record‑low Yields
Bloomberg: "China’s biggest yuan bond sale in Hong Kong since 2023 drew record-low yields for both two- and 15-year debt, with two-year debt selling at a yield of 1.32% and 15-year debt at 2.08%." https://t.co/Q9FDkpbbJE
State‑owned Firms Boost Investment 24%, Spur Growth
1/2 Yicai: "The 100 companies owned by China's central government raised their fixed-asset investment by 24 percent to more than CNY1 trillion last quarter from a year ago, playing an important role in driving the country's overall economic growth." https://t.co/a1CUMZDz2A
China Set to Outpace US in Nuclear Capacity by 2030
Yicai: "China is expected to surpass the United States in operational nuclear power capacity before 2030, becoming the world’s largest, as the country accelerates reactor construction and investment." https://t.co/mmGLIDcA5g
Youth Unemployment Rises to 16.9% as School Year Ends
SCMP: "The jobless rate for the 16-to-24 age group, excluding students, edged up to 16.9 per cent in March from 16.1 per cent in February, snapping six straight months of decline." The big increase, of course, typically happens in June, when...
Japan's 1960s “Excess Competition” Crippled Profitability and Stability
For those who are interested in Japan's recent economic history, and what that may tell us about other economies that copied its growth model, it is worth noting that in Japan, the term “excess competition” (過当競争, katō kyōsō) emerged, mostly...
Payroll Tax Cut Needed to Align Growth with Productivity
1/6 Good Steven Barnett piece. He points out that "targeting growth rates inconsistent with productivity trends leads to distortive policies", and argues instead for a "dramatic, permanent payroll tax cut" to boost consumption. https://t.co/M3fq4ltnmI
China’s Services Sector Lags High‑
According to China Daily, China's services sector comprises 58% of the country's total production (GDP), having risen from 50% in 2015. It accounts for 50% of total employment. For comparison purposes, the GDP share of the services sector is 70-80% in...
Maekawa Report Reveals Why Japan-China Rebalancing Falters
I have often mentioned Japan's 1986 Maekawa Commission Report as a way of understanding why Japan's (and by extension, China's) rebalancing was never going to be easy. For those who might be interested, I asked ChatGPT to summarize the report...
Domestic EV Production, Not Cheap Imports, Lifts Standards
Canadians as consumers may dream of cheaper EV imports, but Canadians as workers and producers won't, and contrary to what many believe, it isn't cheaper imports that raise living standards. It is more domestic production. https://t.co/p3gb1UwYqv
Chinese Carmakers Battle, Profits per Vehicle Stay Razor‑thin
Yicai: Fierce competition among the 12 major listed Chinese automakers kept carmakers’ per-vehicle profits extremely slim, with three still losing money on each one sold. The highest profit per vehicle last year was at Seres, at RMB 9,936 ($1,454). https://t.co/eioFBfk7Ox
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico Illogical in Hyper‑Globalized Trade
1/3 Putting tariffs on Canada and Mexico makes no sense at all, even though they run trade surpluses with the US. That's because in a hyper-globalized world, trade imbalances are always resolved systemically, never bilaterally. https://t.co/M382OjWzJ2
High‑tech Manufacturing Drives over Half of Industrial Profit
People's Daily: "Although high-tech manufacturing accounts for less than 20% of total industrial output, it contributed 32.6% to overall industrial growth. Data for January and February showed that it accounted for 51.8% of total industrial profits." https://t.co/iazDjkrddR
China's GDP Growth only Loosely Mirrors Real Economy
CER: "There is obviously to some extent a relationship between China's GDP growth number and the real economy. Although we don’t know exactly how closely those two things match." https://t.co/ARbicIVAH8
Infrastructure Investment Fuels China’s Q1 Growth Amid Weak Consumption
1/3 NYT: "Strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus as the Chinese economy continued to grow in the first three months of the year." This is exactly it. https://t.co/nM9A94Bq3q
China's Stagnant Imports Pose Bigger Trade Challenge than Exports
1/2 Soumaya Keynes notes that while China's surging exports may be a problem for many countries, they are the smaller problem. The bigger problem is that China's imports have barely grown at all. The more general point is that free trade...
Lee Jae Myung Redirects Housing Funds to Boost Industry
1/9 The Economist discusses the determination of South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, to expand RoK industrial policy aggressively. "His plan involves diverting capital from the housing market to... https://t.co/KKRJiuWb4E
China’s New‑home Prices Dip 0.21% in March, Easing Pressure
1/3 Bloomberg: "New-home prices in 70 cities in China dropped 0.21% in March, the second consecutive month of easing pressure and the smallest decline in 11 months." https://t.co/OQEWA9QELf
China's Q1 2026 Imports Surge 19.6%, Exports Rise
1/4 On Tuesday China reported that the total value of exports in the first three months of 2026 was RMB 6,846.7 billion yuan, up 11.9% year on year, while the total value of imports was 4,991.3 billion yuan, up 19.6%. https://t.co/5TDMdkLpCw
China Q1 GDP Hits 5%, Growth Imbalance Worsens
1/8 China’s first-quarter GDP grew by 5.0%, faster than the 4.8-4.9% most polls suggested, but the composition of the growth was more unbalanced than ever, especially in March. https://t.co/Wa8M2mo1rR
China’s Growth Likely Beats IMF Forecast, Hits 4.5‑5%
1/2 SCMP: "The IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast. China – the world’s second-largest economy – is now expected to expand by 4.4 per cent this year." I, however, predict that China's GDP will grow this year by between 4.5%...
EU Must Adopt Systemic Approach to External Account Control
Good FT article on the role of Chinese investment in manufacturing in Europe. I worry however that EU policymakers may be framing the issue poorly. This should not be about managing incremental, country-by-country changes in production. Policymakers in the EU (and...
China to Issue RMB 15.5bn Treasury Bonds in Hong Kong
Xinhua: "China's Ministry of Finance on Wednesday said that it will issue this year's second batch of RMB 15.5 billion in renminbi-denominated treasury bonds in Hong Kong on April 22." https://t.co/OFSlsUluRF
Regularly Browse China Books Review for Fresh Insights
For those interested in China, it's a good idea every few weeks to check China Books Review and look through the reviews and interviews. @chinabksreview https://t.co/VzIFn0Z842
China Cracks Down on Firms Ditching Its Suppliers
1/2 NYT: "As China’s mammoth trade surplus stokes global tensions, Beijing has enacted sweeping new regulations to investigate and punish foreign companies that stop using Chinese suppliers in response to political pressure at home." https://t.co/hHhm9lhuk8
Rogoff's New Book Offers Valuable Insights Despite Disagreements
I just finished reading Ken Rogoff's latest book. Although I have different views on a number of topics, the book nonetheless has many good insights and some very helpful historical data. https://t.co/eneewgjZPy
China's GDP Obsession Fuels Persistent Overcapacity
1/9 Very good FT article on why overcapacity is structurally embedded into the Chinese economy. It quotes one (anonymous, of course) investor who notes that "Officials are scared of missing their GDP targets. Nobody is scared of overcapacity." https://t.co/uKm2LNhqXd via @ft
Beijing Turns to Credit Subsidies to Revive Demand
1/7 Interesting Caixin article on Beijing's plan to support the economy by further subsidizing credit: "In a more forceful push to boost China’s sluggish domestic demand, policymakers are trying to make fiscal policy do more of the heavy lifting." https://t.co/4e1cuLLgF4
China’s New Bank Lending Slows as Household Credit Halves
Caixin: "The slowdown in China's new bank lending was driven largely by household credit, which rose 490.9 billion yuan in March, nearly halving from 988.8 billion yuan a year earlier." https://t.co/8VQxfrVL2I
China's Q
1/3 According to the People's Bank of China, the total amount of aggregate new financing in the first quarter of 2026 was RMB 14.83 trillion, or 2.3% less than in the first quarter of 2025, with more than 100% of the...
SCMP's Symbolic Story Crosses Into Bizarre Territory
Pretty bizarre SCMP story, even if the god of symbolism may have gone a little overboard on this one. https://t.co/wR5Dl8Onxt
Chinese City Land Sales Plunge 46% Year‑on‑year
Yicai: "300 cities auctioned 64.72 million square meters of land in the three months ended March 31, a 24 percent drop from a year ago. By value, sales plunged 46 percent to CNY215.4 billion. By floor area, they shrank 26...
China Railway Boosts Q1 Investment 5% to Spur Growth
Xinhua: "In the first three months of 2026, China State Railway completed 137.9 billion yuan in fixed-asset investment, a year-on-year increase of 5.1 percent. The company will implement the key railway construction tasks specified in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030),...
Hidden Debt Transfers Burden, Distorts National Income Distribution
The East is Read has translated a very interesting paper by Wang Xiaolu. Speaking about "debt burdens the borrower could not service", he notes that "debt may be written off on paper, but the loss is ultimately shifted, through various...
Macron Demands Concrete Action on Global Imbalances
Mark Sobel: "That relates to this year’s focus on global imbalances for the G7, G20 and IMF. French President Emmanuel Macron, current G7 chair, wants concrete commitments to reduce them. The US, as G20 president, is also paying attention, mainly...
IMF Admits Currency Intervention Fuels Depreciation, Balances External Accounts
Brad Setser is pleased to see the IMF conceding that intervention by a country in its currency and external accounts “can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances”. He is being quite polite. We have known for...
Weak Loan Demand Drives Repo Rate to Three-Year Low
Bloomberg reports that weak loan demand has driven the overnight repo rate to a near three-year low, widening its gap with the PBoC’s seven-day policy rate to the widest since September 2024. The spread suggests that banks are flush with...
Spain’s PM Pushes Chinese Firms to Share Tech Expertise
1/3 Bloomberg: "Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is aiming to persuade Chinese companies to share more tech know-how with their Spanish partners on a trip to Beijing next week, according to people familiar with the preparations." https://t.co/rdKXynb2L7
Beijing Retail Rents Plunge 10% YoY Amid Cautious Spending
Caixin: "Retail property rents in Beijing extended their decline in the first quarter of 2026, as cautious consumer spending forced landlords to cut prices to maintain occupancy. Urban retail rents in Beijing fell 3% quarter-on-quarter and 10.4% from a year...
China Q1 Car Sales Plunge Over 17%, NEVs Down 21%
1/2 Yicai: "China's retail sales of passenger cars declined more than 17 percent in the first quarter of the year, as new energy vehicle sales fell 21 percent following adjustments to the NEV purchase tax breaks." https://t.co/sWTFDBWjLi
China’s Lending Prioritizes Short‑Term Demand Over Viability
@hofunghung makes an important point: "In many ways the dynamics of China's external lending are very similar to the dynamics of China's internal lending". In either case, he argues, the purpose of the project funded is to generate demand and employment...
China Fills Infrastructure Gap, yet Cuts Sovereign Loans
Kevin Gallagher and Rebecca Ray: "Given that financing from the World Bank and its counterparts has remained stagnant since the 1990s, China has helped fill widening infrastructure gaps across the Global South. That’s the good news. The bad news is...
China Mulls Aid for State Airlines Amid Fuel Surge
1/5 Bloomberg: "China is considering financial relief and other measures for its struggling state-run airlines as the Iran war sends fuel costs soaring, in what could be the industry’s biggest lifeline since the Covid pandemic." https://t.co/bT7WcksHuN
US Tariffs Are Leverage Tools, Not Deficit Fixes
1/2 Sam Lowe: "this isn’t really a tariff regime. It’s a perpetual leverage machine with tariffs as the enforcement mechanism." Exactly right. And that's why US tariffs so far have had so little impact on the US trade deficit. https://t.co/GutH5fGJ6s
Major Chinese Banks Cut Pay as Economy Stalls
SCMP: "Several major Chinese banks have clawed back staff bonuses or cut salaries amid a sluggish economic recovery and Beijing’s ongoing scrutiny of the financial sector." https://t.co/7HaKaMzkVD via @scmpnews
China's Q1 GDP Forecast Hits 4.8%, Annual 4.7%
Yicai: "Chief economists surveyed by Yicai predicted China’s gross domestic product to have expanded 4.8 percent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, higher than the 4.5 percent growth in the fourth quarter of last year....
China’s Courts Curb Forced Sales, Hiding True Mortgage Defaults
Bloomberg: "The moves [by local courts to limit the volume of forced property sales by slowing the number of cases involving defaulted mortgages] underscore how China’s local institutions are working to limit the damage of a yearslong property crisis that...
Tuesday Night Series Boosts Beijing’s Underground Music Scene
For my friends living in Beijing, our Tuesday night series at Raw Material Space is playing a big role in supporting Chinese underground composers and experimental performers, and we've already had exciting young musicians whose work was so good that...
More Bank Staff, Lower Pay Stalls Chinese Consumption
Interesting story. While employee numbers at nine joint-stock banks in China climbed last year, total compensation actually declined, by 1.4%. I don't know how typical this is, but it does suggest why it has been so hard to accelerate consumption...