China to Issue RMB 15.5bn Treasury Bonds in Hong Kong
Xinhua: "China's Ministry of Finance on Wednesday said that it will issue this year's second batch of RMB 15.5 billion in renminbi-denominated treasury bonds in Hong Kong on April 22." https://t.co/OFSlsUluRF
Regularly Browse China Books Review for Fresh Insights
For those interested in China, it's a good idea every few weeks to check China Books Review and look through the reviews and interviews. @chinabksreview https://t.co/VzIFn0Z842
China Cracks Down on Firms Ditching Its Suppliers
1/2 NYT: "As China’s mammoth trade surplus stokes global tensions, Beijing has enacted sweeping new regulations to investigate and punish foreign companies that stop using Chinese suppliers in response to political pressure at home." https://t.co/hHhm9lhuk8
Rogoff's New Book Offers Valuable Insights Despite Disagreements
I just finished reading Ken Rogoff's latest book. Although I have different views on a number of topics, the book nonetheless has many good insights and some very helpful historical data. https://t.co/eneewgjZPy
China's GDP Obsession Fuels Persistent Overcapacity
1/9 Very good FT article on why overcapacity is structurally embedded into the Chinese economy. It quotes one (anonymous, of course) investor who notes that "Officials are scared of missing their GDP targets. Nobody is scared of overcapacity." https://t.co/uKm2LNhqXd via @ft
Beijing Turns to Credit Subsidies to Revive Demand
1/7 Interesting Caixin article on Beijing's plan to support the economy by further subsidizing credit: "In a more forceful push to boost China’s sluggish domestic demand, policymakers are trying to make fiscal policy do more of the heavy lifting." https://t.co/4e1cuLLgF4
China’s New Bank Lending Slows as Household Credit Halves
Caixin: "The slowdown in China's new bank lending was driven largely by household credit, which rose 490.9 billion yuan in March, nearly halving from 988.8 billion yuan a year earlier." https://t.co/8VQxfrVL2I
China's Q
1/3 According to the People's Bank of China, the total amount of aggregate new financing in the first quarter of 2026 was RMB 14.83 trillion, or 2.3% less than in the first quarter of 2025, with more than 100% of the...
SCMP's Symbolic Story Crosses Into Bizarre Territory
Pretty bizarre SCMP story, even if the god of symbolism may have gone a little overboard on this one. https://t.co/wR5Dl8Onxt
Chinese City Land Sales Plunge 46% Year‑on‑year
Yicai: "300 cities auctioned 64.72 million square meters of land in the three months ended March 31, a 24 percent drop from a year ago. By value, sales plunged 46 percent to CNY215.4 billion. By floor area, they shrank 26...
China Railway Boosts Q1 Investment 5% to Spur Growth
Xinhua: "In the first three months of 2026, China State Railway completed 137.9 billion yuan in fixed-asset investment, a year-on-year increase of 5.1 percent. The company will implement the key railway construction tasks specified in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030),...
Hidden Debt Transfers Burden, Distorts National Income Distribution
The East is Read has translated a very interesting paper by Wang Xiaolu. Speaking about "debt burdens the borrower could not service", he notes that "debt may be written off on paper, but the loss is ultimately shifted, through various...
Macron Demands Concrete Action on Global Imbalances
Mark Sobel: "That relates to this year’s focus on global imbalances for the G7, G20 and IMF. French President Emmanuel Macron, current G7 chair, wants concrete commitments to reduce them. The US, as G20 president, is also paying attention, mainly...
IMF Admits Currency Intervention Fuels Depreciation, Balances External Accounts
Brad Setser is pleased to see the IMF conceding that intervention by a country in its currency and external accounts “can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances”. He is being quite polite. We have known for...
Weak Loan Demand Drives Repo Rate to Three-Year Low
Bloomberg reports that weak loan demand has driven the overnight repo rate to a near three-year low, widening its gap with the PBoC’s seven-day policy rate to the widest since September 2024. The spread suggests that banks are flush with...
Spain’s PM Pushes Chinese Firms to Share Tech Expertise
1/3 Bloomberg: "Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is aiming to persuade Chinese companies to share more tech know-how with their Spanish partners on a trip to Beijing next week, according to people familiar with the preparations." https://t.co/rdKXynb2L7
Beijing Retail Rents Plunge 10% YoY Amid Cautious Spending
Caixin: "Retail property rents in Beijing extended their decline in the first quarter of 2026, as cautious consumer spending forced landlords to cut prices to maintain occupancy. Urban retail rents in Beijing fell 3% quarter-on-quarter and 10.4% from a year...
China Q1 Car Sales Plunge Over 17%, NEVs Down 21%
1/2 Yicai: "China's retail sales of passenger cars declined more than 17 percent in the first quarter of the year, as new energy vehicle sales fell 21 percent following adjustments to the NEV purchase tax breaks." https://t.co/sWTFDBWjLi
China’s Lending Prioritizes Short‑Term Demand Over Viability
@hofunghung makes an important point: "In many ways the dynamics of China's external lending are very similar to the dynamics of China's internal lending". In either case, he argues, the purpose of the project funded is to generate demand and employment...
China Fills Infrastructure Gap, yet Cuts Sovereign Loans
Kevin Gallagher and Rebecca Ray: "Given that financing from the World Bank and its counterparts has remained stagnant since the 1990s, China has helped fill widening infrastructure gaps across the Global South. That’s the good news. The bad news is...
China Mulls Aid for State Airlines Amid Fuel Surge
1/5 Bloomberg: "China is considering financial relief and other measures for its struggling state-run airlines as the Iran war sends fuel costs soaring, in what could be the industry’s biggest lifeline since the Covid pandemic." https://t.co/bT7WcksHuN
US Tariffs Are Leverage Tools, Not Deficit Fixes
1/2 Sam Lowe: "this isn’t really a tariff regime. It’s a perpetual leverage machine with tariffs as the enforcement mechanism." Exactly right. And that's why US tariffs so far have had so little impact on the US trade deficit. https://t.co/GutH5fGJ6s
Major Chinese Banks Cut Pay as Economy Stalls
SCMP: "Several major Chinese banks have clawed back staff bonuses or cut salaries amid a sluggish economic recovery and Beijing’s ongoing scrutiny of the financial sector." https://t.co/7HaKaMzkVD via @scmpnews
China's Q1 GDP Forecast Hits 4.8%, Annual 4.7%
Yicai: "Chief economists surveyed by Yicai predicted China’s gross domestic product to have expanded 4.8 percent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, higher than the 4.5 percent growth in the fourth quarter of last year....
China’s Courts Curb Forced Sales, Hiding True Mortgage Defaults
Bloomberg: "The moves [by local courts to limit the volume of forced property sales by slowing the number of cases involving defaulted mortgages] underscore how China’s local institutions are working to limit the damage of a yearslong property crisis that...
Tuesday Night Series Boosts Beijing’s Underground Music Scene
For my friends living in Beijing, our Tuesday night series at Raw Material Space is playing a big role in supporting Chinese underground composers and experimental performers, and we've already had exciting young musicians whose work was so good that...
More Bank Staff, Lower Pay Stalls Chinese Consumption
Interesting story. While employee numbers at nine joint-stock banks in China climbed last year, total compensation actually declined, by 1.4%. I don't know how typical this is, but it does suggest why it has been so hard to accelerate consumption...
IMF Urges Nations to Fix Domestic Imbalances Independently
1/15 IMF: "If coordination proves difficult, the best course of action for each country is clear: start addressing domestic imbalances now, regardless of what others do." This is one of several discordant lines in an otherwise interesting paper. https://t.co/Yn79aOWNzr
Finance Wars Shaped America: Hamilton Triumphs Over Egalitarians
I just finished William Hogeland's fascinating book on the struggles over finance and credit during the formative period of the US republic, during which time radical, egalitarian movements were, for better or worse, defeated by financial elites. Alexander Hamilton may not...
US External Deficits Mirror Unsustainable Domestic Borrowing
1/7 Martin Wolf, in an important piece on unsustainable current account imbalances, makes a point that most American economists miss: "the counterpart of external deficits tends to be unsustainable domestic borrowing." https://t.co/h7ob7Aac6A via @ft
China's Bad‑Loan Market Grows Amid Squeezed Bank Margins
China Daily notes that non-performing loan disposals are rising, suggesting that China is slowly developing a bad-loan market, even as record low net-interest margins make it harder for banks to recognize bad loans. https://t.co/UhXgPDv3nE
China Urges Balanced Growth of Imports and Exports
1/3 Xinhua: "China has sent fresh signals of promoting more balanced development of imports and exports. A recent commentary article in the Qiushi Journal called for concrete steps to balance import and export growth." https://t.co/eO90uuquzA
Canada Seeks to Grow Financial Services in China
1/12 Bloomberg: "Canada pitched expanding its financial services presence in the Chinese market as the northern nation aims to increase exports to its second-largest trading partner in a push to diversify from the US." https://t.co/MifJtmoDWc
China’s Urban Rail Investment Slumps 34% in 2026
1/4 Caixin: "Investment in China’s urban rail networks is set to plunge nearly 34% in 2026, the fifth consecutive year of declining capital expenditure, as local governments struggle with mounting operating losses and tighter project-approval requirements." https://t.co/s0B8GEvatW
Top Developers' Sales Drop 23%, Existing Market Revives
Caixin: "Sales by China’s top 100 real estate developers plunged roughly 23% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The prolonged slump in new home sales contrasts with a nascent rebound in the existing home market of major cities like...
China Book Review Announces 2025 Nonfiction Shortlist
China Book Review's shortlist for the 2025 Award for Outstanding Nonfiction Book on China https://t.co/08lsjdMCVJ
China Adds Household Income Boost to Top Policy
1/12 Caixin: "For the first time, China has embedded a dedicated plan to raise household incomes into a top-level national policy document, signaling a change in priorities as policymakers grapple with persistently weak consumer spending." https://t.co/ynrYu49v8R
Q1 2026 Dim Sum Issuance Rises 14% to 400bn Yuan
Caixin: "For the first quarter of 2026, dim sum issuance totaled nearly 400 billion yuan, up 14% from a year earlier." https://t.co/yksX2koWPr
French Biography Reexamines Mao’s Successor, Hua Guofeng
China Books Review has an interesting review of a recent French biography of Hua Guofeng, Mao's successor.
GDP Growth Differs Under Hard Vs. Soft Budget Constraints
In my latest piece for Carnegie, I explain why GDP growth in economies that mainly operate under hard budget constraints is not comparable to GDP growth in countries, like China, in which a large part of the economy operates under...
China Clamps Down on Consumer Lending, Forces Lower Rates
Interesting Caixin article on China’s intensifying crackdown on the consumer lending and loan-facilitation business, with regulators summoning major platforms for talks and pressing the industry to sharply curb borrowing costs. https://t.co/BIv3i5trGx
China to Top CNY400 Bn R&D Spend by 2026
Yicai: "Beijing's expenditure on science and technology is expected to break through CNY400 billion (USD58 billion) for the first time in 2026, with a greater emphasis on basic research, as the country ramps up funding to drive innovation and strengthen...
Chinese Solar Makers Raise Prices, Market Remains Stagnant
Yicai: "Leading Chinese manufacturers of solar modules have raised the prices of their products, as China is lifting the 9 percent rebates on the export value-added tax for photovoltaic products. However even as large manufacturers have raised prices, the market...
China Must Shift From Export Model to Balanced Trade
1/5 SCMP quotes Qiushi as saying "the inherent traits of China’s economy dictate that the export-driven model relied upon during its phase of outward-oriented accumulation is unsustainable, making the push for balanced trade development inevitable." https://t.co/E39ctbmg5R
Undervalued RMB Functions Like Massive Trade Tariff
Good Setser thread on a recent report on global imbalances. By the way, if the RMB is indeed 20-30% undervalued, that is the functional equivalent of a 25-43% tariff on all imports and a 20-30% subsidy on all exports. The Trump...
Europe Lacks Hamiltonian Power Without Central Tax Authority
Jacques de Larosière writes that "anyone who believes that Europe is close to a Hamiltonian moment has fallen victim to self-delusion. In fact, despite diverse external pressures for the Europeans to become a more powerful strategic force in the world,...
Middle Powers Rally to Fill US Void in Global Trade
1/6 FT editorial: "Other governments have not done much to play the role the US once did of seeking to anchor the world trading system. Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, and others have been talking about an alliance of middle powers...
China's New Home Prices Tick up in March
Reuters: "China's new home prices edged up in March, reversing a decline in the previous month, supported by a seasonal pickup in demand in major cities. New home prices in 100 cities rose 0.05% from a month earlier after falling...
1926 British General Strike Lessons Echo Today
1/12 On the centennial of Britain's 1926 general strike, the FT reviews three new books that discuss and explain the events that year. I haven't read them (although I'd love to do so), but it is worth noting what those events...
China Accelerates Local Debt Cleanup via Central Debt Swap
1/4 Yicai: "China’s local debt cleanup is moving faster, with the central government’s debt swap program simultaneously lowering borrowing costs and shrinking the implicit debt pile." https://t.co/Ru3dUFDjL5