Crude Rally May Echo 2022 US Gas Decline
Crude Surge Could Track Falling US Gas Akin to 2022 Big green quarterly candles in Brent crude oil to roughly $120 a barrel have marked peaks and shifts to enduring red reversion since 2008. Has this pattern changed? Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/TxW9xrs7wl {BI COMD} #crudeoil #naturalgas #energy @BBGIntelligence
Corn's Tight Range Signals Potential April‑May Price Peak
Range-Bound Ags Ripe to Move - Is Up Sustainable? The agriculture sector may be guided by corn -- its most significant commodity -- which hasn't ended a quarter outside a per-bushel range of about $4-$5 since 2Q23. That managed money (hedge...
Silver's 2.3x MA Premium Signals Pullback to $50
Normal Silver Retracement Toward $50, Then $34 Not since 1980 has silver's price and volatility been as stretched as they are now, with reversion implications. My graphic highlights the metal at a 2.3x premium to its 20-quarter moving average on April...
January Gas Expected Below $4.40 in Q4
January Gas: Above $5.40 or Below $4.40 in 4Q? A year ago, the January 2027 natural gas future was roughly the same as the $4.60 per MMBtu on April 14, indicating the price to expect in 4Q. A move below the...
Copper Prices Overextended; Must Revisit 5‑Year Mean
Copper Peak Inklings? Stretched From 5-Year Mean Copper faces up-too-much risks near the start of 2Q. If the metal doesn't revisit its five-year moving average at $10,253 a ton, it would be the first year since 2021. Copper dropped 14% in...
Oil Surge Signals Glut Risks for Grains, Crypto
Oil Surge Flags Glut Risks Amid Bear Bounces in Grains, Cryptos Crude oil's move to about $100 a barrel during the Iran war from roughly $60 last year may echo 2022, with oil taking cues from plunging, well-supplied US natural gas....
Crypto Rally Likely Bear‑Market Bounce, Not True Bottom
Cryptos: Selling When They're Yelling, Infinite Supply There may be a few hundred cryptos that matter, but there's effectively an unlimited supply, and Bitcoin was the first. Crypto was among the worst-performing asset classes in 2026 before the Iran war and...
Hedge Funds Bet Heavily on Oversupplied Grains
Hedge Funds Are Long on Oversupplied Grains Hedge funds are at their most net long in about three years despite an oversupplied grain bear market after the Iran-war bounce. My graphic highlights the potential oxymoron: managed-money net longs in corn, soybeans...
Join Bloomberg's Commodity Outlook Webinar April 17
Please join our commodity Outlook Webinar I will host our Bloomberg Intelligence Commodity outlook webinar on Friday April 17 at 10am ET. This session should be both fun and edmucational. As independent strategists, we will discuss and debate our differing...
Crude Oil Joins 2026 ‘Up‑Too‑Much’ Risk List
Up-Too-Much Risks in 2026 - Crude May Follow Natural Gas, Silver Bitcoin in 2025, followed by silver, gold, copper and natural gas in 2026 -- and most importantly, crude oil -- can fall into an "up-too-much" category by year-end. There are...
Copper’s 2026 Rally Threatened by Equity Market Decline
Copper's Big Green Candle Risks Turning Red in 2026 The last three down years for copper (2015, 2018, 2022) coincided with drops in the US stock market, suggesting a dependency on a rising equity tide in 2026. Full report on the...
Bitcoin ETF Lags S&P, Volatility Signals Ongoing Bear
High Risk, Correlation, Poor Performance - Bitcoin, IBIT The crypto bear market may be in its early days if performance since Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024 is a guide. My graphic shows the flat total return of the iShares...
TLT Set to Outperform USO as Oil Rises
TLT Flushed vs. USO -- Dip to Buy, or Different? The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has dropped to a 10-year low vs. the United States Oil Fund LP (USO). Will the TLT/USO total return spread be higher or...
Gold Peaks Signal Potential 25% S&P Decline
When Parabolic Gold Peaks, Stocks Typically Drop The stock market tends to decline when gold peaks from high-velocity rallies. Will it be different this time? My graphic highlights the metal rolling over from its greatest premium to the 20-quarter moving average...
Energy Spot Index Surges 50% in 2026
Time to get excited about energy markets? The Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex is up almost 50% in 2026, to unchanged since 2005! https://t.co/mPF44O7Vkt