Corn Prices Likely Slip Below $4 Without Drought
Corn Path Appears Below $4 It may take a drought for corn prices to stay above $5 a bushel, while more of the same could revisit 2025's low near $3.70. What stops the world's most significant grain from completing a typical low-price-cure cycle below $4? Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/jsjCbMWuTg {BI COMD} #corn #futures @Bloomberg
Soybean Prices Likely Slide Toward $10 Threshold
Soybeans Face a Downward Cycle Toward $10 The pump in November soybeans to above $12 a bushel in May might not be resolved until prices slip below $10. Global stocks-to-use near 30% is roughly neutral for prices, but soybean-complex managed-money (hedge...
Speculators Cut Crude Bets as US Surplus Grows
Growing US Crude Surpluses Align With Spec Selling Diminishing speculator net-longs in petroleum futures appear more aligned with plunging US and Canadian demand vs. supply than prices, which may be relatively high. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/nJU5xwyQWN {BI COMD} #crudeoil #futures...
Bitcoin Drives Risk Assets Up, Signals 2026 Downturn
Plunging Bitcoin Led the Way Up for Risk Assets Bitcoin led risk assets on the way up and may lead them back down. My graphic featuring the crypto on the same scale as the S&P 500 (times 10) indicates a down...
Bitcoin's S&P Ratio May Halve, Falling Toward 5x
Bitcoin Breaks 10x vs. SPX, and May Be Heading to 5x The roughly 10 Bitcoins needed to equal the S&P 500 (SPX) since 2021 may be cut in half. My graphic shows the Bitcoin/SPX ratio breaching this key pivot at the...
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Tinder Box Awaiting a Spark? TLT vs. USO Reversion The lowest level of US public debt vs. stock-market capitalization in about 20 years, and the highest measure of crude oil vs. Treasury bonds in roughly a decade, may suggest elevated reversion...
Fed Cuts Rates While Stock Market Fuels Inflation
Duh, That Was Dump No risk in predicting the future, so here goes: Federal Reserve DTWD - Continuing to cut rates despite the stock market on a tear at more than 2x GDP, inflation above 2%, and rising T-bond yields signaling to stop -...
Tether Overtakes Ether, Bitcoin Poised for $10K
The Path to $10,000 Bitcoin: Tether Has Flippened Ether - Bitcoin Is Next The US dollar, via the Tether stablecoin, is now the No. 2 cryptocurrency. The technology is awesome. Cryptos adopted the dollar as their base layer, invested in...
2026 Crude Oil Set for Pump‑Then‑Dump Cycle
Crude May Follow Gas, Bitcoin 2026 Pump-then-Dumps A primary factor in commodities -- rising price elasticity -- might face a significant test in 2026 with crude oil. Year-over-year rallies near 100% in heating oil, diesel and petroleum prices to May 27...
Corn Likely to Dip Toward $4 by Year‑end
Corn May Be Leaning Toward $4 vs. $5 for Year-End The December corn future 2026 high is $5.06 per bushel on May 21 vs. the US break-even production cost near $4, which may suggest downward reversion risks. Some combination of WTI...
Falling Natural Gas Could Trigger Post‑Inflation Deflation
Natural Gas May Guide Energy Post-Inflation Deflation Natural gas -- the primary US source of heat, electricity and fertilizer -- is down about 10% year-over-year to May 21 and may shape post-inflation deflation patterns for crude, corn, soybeans and wheat. The...
Fed Rate Cuts Expose Fragile Risk Asset Dependence
Sock Puppets to Stocks? Crude, Gold, Commodities, Bitcoin, Bonds The Federal Reserve's 2025 rate cuts, despite the most inflated stock market vs. GDP since before the Great Depression, may have reinforced how dependent most risk assets are on the beta tide...
Fed Delay May Ignite Inflation Like 1928 Bubble
Adding Fuel to Inflation Fire May Not Fare Well Federal Reserve easing in 2025, despite the greatest stock market inflation since 1928-29, may be a top force buttressing consumer prices and what parabolic rallies in gold and silver sniffed out. History...
Record Equities Drive Metals, Crypto Amid Inflation
Record Equities Are the Key Difference vs. 2008 The latest consumer price index reading of 3.8% is above the effective federal funds rate, a pattern last seen before the Great Recession. My graphic shows a similar CPI-fed funds trajectory, recovering from...
Only $40 Oil Can Halt Growing US Surplus
It May Take $40 Oil to Curtail US Supply Surplus Plunging US demand vs. supply for crude has buffeted broad commodity prices for about two decades, underscoring a key force -- elasticity. Nearing a surplus of 8 million barrels a day...