Bitcoin Stalls at $75K as Stocks Drive Market
Can Bitcoin Stay Above $75,000? Stocks Likely Guiding At about $75,000 on April 16, Bitcoin was little changed from its March 2024 peak after the launch of US ETFs, despite the S&P 500's nearly 40% gain. Will the crypto catch up to beta, or did the launch of US ETFs and President Donald Trump's shift to advocate from antagonist mark an enduring crypto peak? I lean toward the latter. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/u7HSPxpVvm {BI COMD} #Bitcoin #cryptos #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence
Bitcoin Must Hold $60K to Avoid 2026 Low
Bitcoin $60,000-$75,000 May Define 2026 Risk vs. Reward Since 2017, when listed Bitcoin futures started trading, the crypto has been a top performer, which may augur elevated reversion risks when the beta tide ebbs. A key takeaway from our graphic is...
Crude Rally May Echo 2022 US Gas Decline
Crude Surge Could Track Falling US Gas Akin to 2022 Big green quarterly candles in Brent crude oil to roughly $120 a barrel have marked peaks and shifts to enduring red reversion since 2008. Has this pattern changed? Full report on the...
Corn's Tight Range Signals Potential April‑May Price Peak
Range-Bound Ags Ripe to Move - Is Up Sustainable? The agriculture sector may be guided by corn -- its most significant commodity -- which hasn't ended a quarter outside a per-bushel range of about $4-$5 since 2Q23. That managed money (hedge...
Silver's 2.3x MA Premium Signals Pullback to $50
Normal Silver Retracement Toward $50, Then $34 Not since 1980 has silver's price and volatility been as stretched as they are now, with reversion implications. My graphic highlights the metal at a 2.3x premium to its 20-quarter moving average on April...
January Gas Expected Below $4.40 in Q4
January Gas: Above $5.40 or Below $4.40 in 4Q? A year ago, the January 2027 natural gas future was roughly the same as the $4.60 per MMBtu on April 14, indicating the price to expect in 4Q. A move below the...
Copper Prices Overextended; Must Revisit 5‑Year Mean
Copper Peak Inklings? Stretched From 5-Year Mean Copper faces up-too-much risks near the start of 2Q. If the metal doesn't revisit its five-year moving average at $10,253 a ton, it would be the first year since 2021. Copper dropped 14% in...
Oil Surge Signals Glut Risks for Grains, Crypto
Oil Surge Flags Glut Risks Amid Bear Bounces in Grains, Cryptos Crude oil's move to about $100 a barrel during the Iran war from roughly $60 last year may echo 2022, with oil taking cues from plunging, well-supplied US natural gas....
Crypto Rally Likely Bear‑Market Bounce, Not True Bottom
Cryptos: Selling When They're Yelling, Infinite Supply There may be a few hundred cryptos that matter, but there's effectively an unlimited supply, and Bitcoin was the first. Crypto was among the worst-performing asset classes in 2026 before the Iran war and...
Hedge Funds Bet Heavily on Oversupplied Grains
Hedge Funds Are Long on Oversupplied Grains Hedge funds are at their most net long in about three years despite an oversupplied grain bear market after the Iran-war bounce. My graphic highlights the potential oxymoron: managed-money net longs in corn, soybeans...
Join Bloomberg's Commodity Outlook Webinar April 17
Please join our commodity Outlook Webinar I will host our Bloomberg Intelligence Commodity outlook webinar on Friday April 17 at 10am ET. This session should be both fun and edmucational. As independent strategists, we will discuss and debate our differing...
Crude Oil Joins 2026 ‘Up‑Too‑Much’ Risk List
Up-Too-Much Risks in 2026 - Crude May Follow Natural Gas, Silver Bitcoin in 2025, followed by silver, gold, copper and natural gas in 2026 -- and most importantly, crude oil -- can fall into an "up-too-much" category by year-end. There are...
Copper’s 2026 Rally Threatened by Equity Market Decline
Copper's Big Green Candle Risks Turning Red in 2026 The last three down years for copper (2015, 2018, 2022) coincided with drops in the US stock market, suggesting a dependency on a rising equity tide in 2026. Full report on the...
Bitcoin ETF Lags S&P, Volatility Signals Ongoing Bear
High Risk, Correlation, Poor Performance - Bitcoin, IBIT The crypto bear market may be in its early days if performance since Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024 is a guide. My graphic shows the flat total return of the iShares...
TLT Set to Outperform USO as Oil Rises
TLT Flushed vs. USO -- Dip to Buy, or Different? The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has dropped to a 10-year low vs. the United States Oil Fund LP (USO). Will the TLT/USO total return spread be higher or...
Gold Peaks Signal Potential 25% S&P Decline
When Parabolic Gold Peaks, Stocks Typically Drop The stock market tends to decline when gold peaks from high-velocity rallies. Will it be different this time? My graphic highlights the metal rolling over from its greatest premium to the 20-quarter moving average...
Energy Spot Index Surges 50% in 2026
Time to get excited about energy markets? The Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex is up almost 50% in 2026, to unchanged since 2005! https://t.co/mPF44O7Vkt
Gold Rally Signals Overdue Bitcoin Beta Reversion
Bitcoin/Gold Signaling Overdue Beta Reversion Gold's parabolic rally to a 1Q record, alongside Bitcoin's 50% drawdown from 2025's peak, may be a warning. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/eBbZvyueNK {BI COMD} #Bitcoin #gold #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence https://t.co/uSMUPg5EoR
Bitcoin ETFs Trail Gold, Gold Gains 135%
Bitcoin ETF Performance Pales Next to Gold The launch of US Bitcoin ETFs may have been the harbinger for the end of broad crypto price appreciation, favoring gold. Since the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) started trading in January 2024, Bitcoin...
Bitcoin ETFs Spark Peak, Signal Asset Reversion
Bitcoin May be Guiding Risk Asset Reversion The launch of US Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 helped push the price above $100,000 and may guide reversion back toward $10,000. What's notable from my graphic is the first-born crypto reaching an apex in...
Gold and Oil Volatility Set to Lift Stock Market Volatility
Buried US Stock-Market Volatility Ripe to Recover Declining S&P 500 180-day volatility in 2026 is an anomaly alongside surging gold and crude oil volatility, with implications for risk-asset reversion. My graphic highlights what could signal the next big trade: surging volatility...
Soybean Speculators’ Long Stance Fueled by Rising Crude
Bullish Soybean Specs May Depend on Higher Crude At about 19% of open interest, soybean complex managed money (hedge fund) positions are the most net long in roughly three years. Are speculators too optimistic despite a supply glut from Brazil? My...
Corn Speculators Near Peak Longs as Prices Hover $5
Corn Revisits $5 With Specs Long, Gas Falling At about 15% of futures open interest, net-long corn speculators may be overly optimistic for higher prices. My graphic shows spec longs approaching last year's 1Q peak near 18% -- about when the...
Stock Volatility Flat While Gold, Crude Volatility Spikes
Stock Market Volatility has never stayed this low vs. spike gold and crude volatility https://t.co/PJye9zoM2S
Crude‑Gold Ratio Hits Historic Peak, Signals 2026 Reversal
Worthy Reversion Spark? Stocks vs. Gold, GDP, Crude Mean reversion can be profound when it's from historical extremes, and the relationship between crude oil and gold may suggest a reverse wealth effect that defines 2026. The roughly 86x January high in...
Geopolitical Realignments Signal Looming 2026 Bear Market
A Faustian Bargain, the Battle of the Bulge and Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact - President Trump's conversion to crypto zealot helped get him elected and pumped prices to nosebleed levels. That Faustian-like bargain is unraveling. Stocks may be next. - The "unlimited friendship" between...
Trump Era Mirrors Hoover: Market Overvaluation Sparks Gold Surge
Hoover 1929 vs. Trump 2026: Cycles Favoring Risk-Off vs. Risk Assets - The election of President Donald Trump in 2024 has a disconcerting parallel with that of President Herbert Hoover in 1928 -- US stock-market capitalization stretched to over 2x...
Repeated Warnings Signal Impending Reversion in Risk Assets
If I keep saying the same thing, may eventually be right. It may finally be time for some overdue reversion in risk assets. Collapsing Bitcoin vs. gold warned us. https://t.co/68bBhmBmJ1
Shift to US Treasuries as Gold Peaks
I'm not supposed to give investment advice, but compliance has never said I can't suggest overweighting US Treasuries :) Tinderbox Seeking a Spark: US Treasuries vs. Gold A basic factor may be all that's needed to spur some reversion from the...
Soybean Prices Capped at $12 Amid Record Brazil Output
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside crude's spike...
Bitcoin Poised to Revisit $10k by 2026
The Bursting Crypto Bubble and Potential $10,000 Bitcoin in 2026 - Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting. Roughly $10,000 is also the first-born crypto's most traded price since...
Hormuz Closure Sparks Recession, Futures Hint Deflation
Hormuz Closure, December Futures Signal Post-Inflation Deflation - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz might have already triggered a global recession, with lose-lose implications for most risk assets and commodities -- particularly crude oil. Rolling to front-month just before...
Gas at $5 vs 5% Bonds: Inflation Signal
Natural Gas $5, T-Bonds 5%: Inflation vs. Deflation - January (Jan27) US natural gas futures and the 30-year Treasury bond on the same scale highlights inflation vs. deflation implications of $5 per million BTU gas and 5% yields. Full report on...
US Stock Volatility May Ignite Recovery Amid Deflation
A Lose-Lose? Crude Spike vs. Buried Equity Volatility - Subdued US stock market volatility may have found a worthy spark for recovery, with deflationary implications. US stock-market capitalization was down about $6 trillion year to date to March 30, representing...
Stocks vs Commodities Divergence May Finally Revert
What Stops Stocks vs. Commodities Reversion? An extremely extended US stock market vs. commodities and GDP may have found a worthy spark for reversion, with post-inflation deflation leanings. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/KWrklODsPM {BI COMD} |#commodities #stockmarket #crudeoil @BBGIntelligence
Natural Gas Spike Signals Crude Oil Slide to $50
US Natural Gas' 100% 1Q Pump-Then-Dump May Guide 2026 Crude Oil - The roughly 100% 1Q rise in the front US natural gas future, and reversal to minus 18% on March 27, may lead crude oil's way in 2026, as...
US Natural Gas Floor Shifts to $3, Not $2
Is $3 the New $2 Floor for US Natural Gas? The front US natural gas future hasn't ended a quarter below $3 per million BTUs since 2Q24. Is $3 replacing $2 as the new floor? The 2026-27 winter should be a...
Heating Oil Doubles Q1, Echoes 2008 Energy Crisis
Heating Oil, Distillate Surges and Price Peaks - Heating oil's 100% surge in 1Q may emphasize extreme stress and the potential for demand destruction that typically results when energy prices spike. On a weekly basis since 1986, the 4.5 ratio...
Q1 Pump‑Then‑Dump Sets Potential Peaks for Metals
Gold, Silver, Copper 1Q Pump-Then-Dump Pattern Might Define 2026 - Signs of high-price cures, common in more elastic commodities, emerged in the metals sector in 1Q. My analysis suggests pump-then-dump patterns to record highs in gold, silver and copper could...
Gold's 2025 Surge Signals Possible 2026 Rebound
Gold's 2025 Rally Was Prescient: Is It Hangover Time? Gold may have one main problem -- ample room for reversion. At the end of February, the metal stretched to its highest-ever vs. the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index and its greatest premium...
Metals Likely Pump‑Then‑Dump After 2026 Peak
2026 May Mark Enduring Metals Peaks - The Bloomberg Commodity All Metals Total Return Subindex cut its 22% gain for 2026 (to the Jan. 29 high) to roughly 2% on March 27. Did the metals sector set a pump-then-dump peak,...
2026 Gold and Crude Face Pump‑Then‑Dump Risk
2026 Pump-Then-Dump Risks in Both Gold and Crude - Gold's big green 2026 annual candle to its Jan. 29 high of $5,595 an ounce risks turning red by year-end -- particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is secured -- with...
Soybean $12 Barrier Demands $100+ Oil, Crop Shortfalls
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil - It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside...
Grain Producers Hedge as Futures Signal Mild Profitability
March Selling When They're Yelling in Grains - A takeaway from the March 24-25 Bloomberg Farm, Food & Fuel Summit in Kansas City was that many Corn Belt grain producers used recent price increases to hedge. Corn and soybean futures...
US‑Canada Crude Surplus Fuels Dec26 WTI Spike
Growing US, Canada Crude and Fuel Surplus - When the December 2026 (Dec26) WTI crude future started trading in 2017, the US and Canada had a supply-demand deficit near 1 million barrels a day (MMb/d). Now it's a roughly 7 MMb/d...
US Stockpiles Keep $5 Corn From Surpassing 2022 Peak
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66 apex...
Early 2026 Market Volatility Signals Potential Crude Oil Dump
A Tactical Traders Delight May Be Just Getting Started - 2026 - Gold, silver, copper, the S&P 500, Bitcoin and US natural gas have turned 1Q gains into declines. How sustainable are the pumps-then-dumps? Crude oil may be next. That...
Fuel Price Surge Echoes 2008, 2022, Threatens Equities
Gasoline, Diesel Price Surges May Mirror 2008, 2022 - US average gasoline and diesel prices have approached the $4 and $5 a gallon thresholds, raising the prospect of greater consumer and economic stress -- and peaks akin to 2008 and...
WTI May Top Near $120 by 2026, Echoing 2008
WTI Peaks and Recessions: $120 (2026), $147 (2008), $130 (2022) - WTI crude oil was near unchanged for the week ending March 20 despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining mostly closed, suggesting a potential topping process reminiscent of 2008. Roughly...
2026 Commodity Pump‑Then‑Dump May Hit WTI Crude
Crude vs. 2026 Commodity Pump-Then-Dump Pattern - Front-month US natural gas futures surged roughly 100% to the January peak, then reversed to about a 15% decline by March 20. Will WTI crude oil follow? Silver and copper have also shifted...