Extreme Backwardation Signals Potential Crude Oil Price Peak
Has Crude Oil Peaked? Extreme Backwardation Leans that Way Crude oil reached a historic backwardation extreme in 1Q, which typically marks price peaks. Reflecting financing and storage costs, contango is normal in commodities, when further-out futures -- the backs -- trade at higher prices. However, backwardation has become common in crude for almost a decade, reflecting increasing US supply surpluses. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/5PCgGF2qyG {BI COMD} #crudeoil #futures @BBGIntelligence
Gold, Silver Likely Enter Poor‑Performance Cycle After Rallies
Gold, Silver May Face a Typical Cycle: Years of Bad Performance Crude oil has been stuck in a range for about two decades and is approaching the upper end, which could be a guide for what to expect in gold and...
Gold Poised for 1980‑Level Peak by 2026
A Peak Like 1980? Gold Is Leaning That Way Gold futures started trading in 1975, peaked near $873 an ounce in 1Q80 and did not breach that high until 1Q08. I see peak parallels in 2026. Full report on the Bloomberg here:...
Silver's 2026 Peak May Sustain for Years
Silver's 2026 High Could Endure for Years In transition over the years to more industrial commodity from money and store of value, silver may be more elastic than ever, and the 1Q price surge could mark a peaking process. Full report on...
Elasticity Holds Crude, Corn Prices; Copper Vulnerable to Market Swings
Crude, Corn, Copper vs. Primary Forces of Elasticity, Dependency Elasticity is a top force that has kept the primary energy and agriculture commodities -- crude oil and corn -- under price pressure for decades, and 2026 is a good test. Ample...
Copper Prices Now Riding on US Stock Market
Copper Heavily Reliant on a Rising Stock Market Copper appears increasingly dependent on the US stock market to keep going up for the metal not to go down. My graphic featuring the per-pound price of copper on the same scale as...
Corn Set for Second-Half Price Pressure, Consumers Benefit
Corn, Like Crude, Faces 2H Price Pressure Similar to crude oil, the US is the largest producer of corn and a net exporter, while prices have bounced in 1H and domestic supplies are ample. The recipe benefits consumers, not prices. Full report...
Gold Volatility Spike Signals Impending Stock Market Downturn
Hoping This Indicator Is Wrong? Gold Volatility Extreme peaks in gold vs. S&P 500 volatility have a tendency to front-run drawdowns in the US stock market. Is it different this time? My graphic of the spread between gold and SPX volatility...
Crude Oil at Record Premium Over Gas Signals Reversion Risk
Crude Oil's Extreme Premium vs. Itself, Natural Gas Crude has never stretched to a greater premium to its 100-week moving average and vs. the price of natural gas in the history of WTI futures trading (since 1985) and US natural gas...
Bitcoin/Gold Ratio Signals Stock Market Reversion at 17x
Plunging Bitcoin/Gold - Wrong, Redundant or Recovery If the stock market can navigate through 2026 with a gain, a leading indicator -- Bitcoin/gold -- may be rendered redundant. That, or the ratio of the crypto in gold ounces could recover from...
Energy Index Peaks, Mirrors 30‑Year Treasury Deflation Trend
Energy, T-Bonds, Stocks and Post-Inflation Deflation The Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex may have peaked in 2026 at about 500, similar to its 2005 apex, with deflationary implications. My graphic highlights the energy index's same-chart syndrome with the 30-year US Treasury (in...
Metals Lean on Stocks While Energy, Grains Revert
Normal autocorrelation in commodities vs. rising dependency. Energy and grains typically go down because they went up. Metals appear highly dependent on stocks to keep going up. https://t.co/ipBg8zbDaq
WTI Crude Peaks Near $120; Bonds, Grains Stabilize
Peak Inklings: $100 Crude, 5% T-Bonds, $5 Corn and Gas, $12 Soy Roughly $120 a barrel in WTI crude oil may be reaching its peak potential, akin to $147 in 2008 and $130 in 2022. Staying below $100 would reinforce the...
Crude Oil Lower-High Pattern Holds, Fueled by US Stocks
Crude Oil Pump-Then-Dump Pattern Appears Intact The crude oil pattern of lower highs since 2008 is being tested in 2026 and looks intact. My graphic shows a top potential determinant for maintaining the lower-lows trend -- the lofty US stock market. Full...
Oil Spike Boosts Soybean Oil, May Pull Crude to $60
Crude Toward $60? Soybean Oil as a Substitute The tendency for crude-oil price surges to be their own worst enemy may be emphasized by the rise of biofuels. Well supplied soybeans will gain demand due to the WTI spike above $100...
Soybean Net-Longs Triple Corn, Heightening Liquidation Risk
Following the Money, Soybeans Lead Risk vs. Reward Speculator net-longs in soybeans dwarf those in corn and wheat, indicating an epicenter for position liquidation risks in grains. The dollar value of hedge fund net-longs in soybean complex futures is about 3x...
Wheat Futures Hit 2‑Year High on Record Speculator Net‑Long
Bouncing Wheat, Long Specs and Reversion Risks The benchmark wheat future has risen to its highest price in about two years on the back of grain speculators being the most net-long in four years -- and it's the time of year...
Crude Spikes Rare; only 1973 Embargo Sustained Rise
Surges in Crude Typically Their Own Worst Enemy The only period in our database since 1861 that crude oil went up sharply and stayed up was during the first Arab oil embargo in 1973-74, when WTI jumped to about $10 a...
Corn and Crude Prices Slip Below Historic $4 Mark
Corn and Crude Emphasize Commodity Price Deflation Corn futures first traded at $4 a bushel in 1974, and the 2024-25 lows dipped below this threshold. Will 2026 be different? Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/8d2nZRKal3 {BI COMD} #corn #crudeoil #commodities @BBGIntelligence
SPX/Gold Ratio Likely Keeps Falling Through 2026
SPX/Gold Trend Is Down; Can It Continue in 2026? The S&P 500 in gold ounces breached 2.0 support in 2024, and the next big driver may be the SPX. At 1.58 on April 31, the SPX/gold ratio has bounced from 1.29...
Iran Conflict May Revive Undervalued Commodities Vs. Overheated Stocks
Commodities Too Cold, Stocks Too Hot or Both? The Iran conflict may mark a worthy recovery catalyst for broad commodities from roughly a quarter-century low vs. US equities. Were commodities just too low at the end of 2025, or equity prices...
Copper’s Gains Mirror S&P, Yet Lag Behind Trends
Highly Stock-Market Dependent Copper May Be a Guide Copper's increasing dependency for stability on a rising US stock market may underscore elevated risks across assets. My macroeconomic scorecard shows both copper and the S&P 500 up about 5% year to date...
Energy Drives 2026 Commodity Rally, Metals Lag Behind
Energy Shifts Commodity Sectors - 2026 Performance Energy is pulling other commodity sectors higher in 2026 -- the key question is how far and for how long. Sector performance has reversed from 2025, with energy leading and precious metals lagging. Full report...
Brent $120+ Needed to Hit 2005 Energy Index High
This Year May Test a Top Force in Energy - Elasticity If Brent crude oil can stay above $120 a barrel, the Bloomberg Energy Spot Index may top 2005's high. Both outcomes appear unlikely absent something very bad happening in the...
Energy Surge May Trigger Deflation, Crude Prices Collapse
Energy Surge Can Be a Lose-Lose for Crude Prices Spiking diesel, gasoline and natural gas prices, particularly in Europe and Asia, are curbing demand, and it's a question of magnitude and duration. My top takeaway from the energy crisis is that...
Metals May Have Peaked in 2026, Silver Risks Reversal
May Metals Outlook - 2026 High-Price Cure Can Endure for Years - Gold, Silver Historically, metals -- the best-performing commodities sector -- may have reached an up-too-much plateau in 2026. Silver is on the cusp of turning a roughly 70% 1Q...
US Wheat Signals Potential 2026 Corn Belt Drought
May Agriculture Outlook - Is US Wheat Foretelling a 2026 Corn Belt Drought? Gas May Guide April is typically a peak price month in the grains. Speculators are the longest they've been in about three years, while winter and spring wheat...
Crude Oil Expected to Fall, Capping Grain Prices
All Linked Now -- How Long Can Crude Buoy Grains? If crude oil stays elevated in 2026, grain and agriculture prices may as well, but elasticity is typically a primary constraint. My bias is that the December WTI crude future, at...
Grain Speculators at 3‑year High Amid Abundant Corn, Soybean Supplies
Specs are Long Despite Ample Corn, Soybean Supply Speculators in the grains are the longest they've been in about three years, despite elevated US corn stocks and substantial soybean supply from South America. Full report on the Bloomberg terminal here: https://t.co/SrDvq26ZtG {BI...
Commodity Bull Markets Reverse After Rising with US Stocks
Top commodity bull markets are in dependency (on US stocks) and elasticity, they typically go down because they went up https://t.co/VV1CBeJ8Vt
Gold‑Crude Divergence at 44: Cue for Copper, Stocks
Gold's Breakdown vs. Crude May Guide Copper, Stocks Volatility in gold and crude oil has never surged at a similar pace as in 2026 without spilling into the stock market, with implications for most markets. My graphic depicts crude's price pump...
2026 Energy Surge Likely
Just a Short Cleansing Range Trade in Energy Prices? The enduring lesson of weak underlying-commodity price performance vs. producer equities is playing out in 2026. The question is whether it's a normal rotation lower or start of sustained higher prices. My...
Geopolitics Accelerates Clean Energy Shift, Raises US Prices
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accelerated the process of technology replacing fossil fuels and the Iran war is adding fuel, in addition to boosting US energy price making status. Please join our BI Energy Exchange on Wednesday, April 29, 10am EST, hosted...
Crypto Index Stagnates, Needs Low‑Price Remedy
Oversupplied and Seeking a Low-Price Cure -- Cryptos The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) has been flat for about five years, despite the S&P 500 nearly doubling and the BGCI exhibiting roughly 4x the volatility. Oversupplied, overhyped and overpriced is my...
Palladium Poised to Break $1,472‑$1,586 Range
Narrowing Palladium's Range to $1,472-$1,586 Stuck between its downward sloping 50-day moving average and the uptrend in its 200-day moving average, palladium appears ripe to exit its narrowing cage at about $1,472-$1,586 per ounce on April 23. Full report on the...
Platinum Overextended yet Deeply Discounted to Gold
Platinum Is Stretched, But Low vs. Gold Platinum is extremely extended vs. its 60-month moving average, but a primary underpinning may be its steep discount to gold. At about $2,000 an ounce on April 22, my graphic shows platinum around the...
Metals and Crypto Offer No Diversification Edge Over S&P
Metals and Cryptos May Face Lose-Lose vs. S&P 500 High volatility, strong beta correlation and similar long-term price appreciation may define poor diversification, an issue afflicting cryptos and metals. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) has been flat vs. the S&P...
US‑Canada Crude Surplus Could Drive Prices Toward $40
Lower Prices May Be Top Cure for US+Canada Surplus The recent WTI crude oil surge may add fuel to an incomplete low-price-cure cycle toward $40 a barrel. My graphic highlights a key reason why: the growing surplus in US and Canadian...
Corn Near $5 Ceiling; Gas Pump‑Dump May Pull to $4
Technical Outlook - Corn vs. $5 Ceiling and Pump-Then-Dump Pattern From Natural Gas Corn's low in this down cycle might not yet be in. December corn revisited threshold resistance near $5 a bushel in 1Q, alongside crude oil's surge to about...
December Corn Likely Slides Toward $4.30
December Corn May Lean Toward $4.30 vs. Above $5 New-crop December (Dec26) corn, at about $4.80 a bushel on April 20, may have a greater propensity to extend its life-of-contract low near $4.39 than to stay above the high of around...
Stocks Must Remain Strong to Shield Crude From Gas Slide
Stocks May Need to Stay Up for Crude Oil Not to Follow US Natural Gas Down https://t.co/TLsVGd92SK #crudeoil @BBGIntelligence
Weak Corn, Soybean Markets Threaten Crude's $100 Barrier
Crude Breaks Stuff Above $100; $80 Initial Support Crude oil's red 2Q candle to April 17 may have a greater tendency to deepen if corn and soybeans are guides. My graphic highlights a big difference from the last three times WTI...
Soybeans May Touch $12.39, But $9 Likely
$12.39 Soybeans Could Mark 2026 High Soybeans have been between $9.36-$12.39 a bushel since the start of 2024, recently revisiting the upper end due to the Iran war. Sustaining above $12 may require an unlikely combination of WTI crude oil staying...
Gold and Treasuries Outshine Bitcoin as Crypto Declines
Next Big Trade vs. the Last - US Treasuries Shining vs. Bitcoin Glory Days Bitcoin stopped outperforming the S&P 500 in 2021 and has been lagging beta, notably on a risk-adjusted basis, since US ETFs were launched in 2024. Crypo appreciation...
TLT Outperforms USO Tenfold Amid Oil Price Shifts
Is TLT vs. USO a 10x? From the 2018 low to 2020 high, TLT advanced about 10x vs. USO (total return). From the 2008 low to this year's nadir so far, TLT/USO is up about 10x (was up roughly 130x to...
Elasticity Fuels Wild Commodity Bull Market
A top bull market in commodities is elasticity. The front US natural gas future made an up about 100% to down 30% round turn in 1Q. Crude oil may be next. https://t.co/f9xXlI5GLv
Energy Index Surges 45% YTD, Still Trails Gold
Has the Gold Stud vs. Energy Dud Pattern Changed? The Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex (BCOMENSP) has been robust year to date, gaining about 45%, getting it to breakeven from 2005. Will the Iran war sustain higher prices, or follow the pattern...
Stock Volatility Approaches Crude and Gold Levels
What's next? Wrong on stock market volatility catching up to crude and gold volatility so far
Questioning “We”: Individual Commodity Outlooks at 10 Am EST
When you hear someone say "we think" or "our view" - who are the we's and our's? My experience is it's typically one person and the rest of the team complies. Today we will hash our our individual Bloomberg Intelligence commodity...
Bitcoin, Copper Hit Resistance; Peaks Likely Ahead
Bitcoin $75,000, Copper $6: Last Chance to Sell or Rising Tide? The record-setting US stock market is helping underpin metals and cryptos, but copper and Bitcoin have revisited key resistance at $6 a pound and $75,000. Do these signal a broader...