Gold Rally Signals Overdue Bitcoin Beta Reversion
Bitcoin/Gold Signaling Overdue Beta Reversion Gold's parabolic rally to a 1Q record, alongside Bitcoin's 50% drawdown from 2025's peak, may be a warning. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/eBbZvyueNK {BI COMD} #Bitcoin #gold #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence https://t.co/uSMUPg5EoR
Bitcoin ETFs Trail Gold, Gold Gains 135%
Bitcoin ETF Performance Pales Next to Gold The launch of US Bitcoin ETFs may have been the harbinger for the end of broad crypto price appreciation, favoring gold. Since the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) started trading in January 2024, Bitcoin...
Bitcoin ETFs Spark Peak, Signal Asset Reversion
Bitcoin May be Guiding Risk Asset Reversion The launch of US Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 helped push the price above $100,000 and may guide reversion back toward $10,000. What's notable from my graphic is the first-born crypto reaching an apex in...
Gold and Oil Volatility Set to Lift Stock Market Volatility
Buried US Stock-Market Volatility Ripe to Recover Declining S&P 500 180-day volatility in 2026 is an anomaly alongside surging gold and crude oil volatility, with implications for risk-asset reversion. My graphic highlights what could signal the next big trade: surging volatility...
Soybean Speculators’ Long Stance Fueled by Rising Crude
Bullish Soybean Specs May Depend on Higher Crude At about 19% of open interest, soybean complex managed money (hedge fund) positions are the most net long in roughly three years. Are speculators too optimistic despite a supply glut from Brazil? My...
Corn Speculators Near Peak Longs as Prices Hover $5
Corn Revisits $5 With Specs Long, Gas Falling At about 15% of futures open interest, net-long corn speculators may be overly optimistic for higher prices. My graphic shows spec longs approaching last year's 1Q peak near 18% -- about when the...
Stock Volatility Flat While Gold, Crude Volatility Spikes
Stock Market Volatility has never stayed this low vs. spike gold and crude volatility https://t.co/PJye9zoM2S
Crude‑Gold Ratio Hits Historic Peak, Signals 2026 Reversal
Worthy Reversion Spark? Stocks vs. Gold, GDP, Crude Mean reversion can be profound when it's from historical extremes, and the relationship between crude oil and gold may suggest a reverse wealth effect that defines 2026. The roughly 86x January high in...
Geopolitical Realignments Signal Looming 2026 Bear Market
A Faustian Bargain, the Battle of the Bulge and Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact - President Trump's conversion to crypto zealot helped get him elected and pumped prices to nosebleed levels. That Faustian-like bargain is unraveling. Stocks may be next. - The "unlimited friendship" between...
Trump Era Mirrors Hoover: Market Overvaluation Sparks Gold Surge
Hoover 1929 vs. Trump 2026: Cycles Favoring Risk-Off vs. Risk Assets - The election of President Donald Trump in 2024 has a disconcerting parallel with that of President Herbert Hoover in 1928 -- US stock-market capitalization stretched to over 2x...
Repeated Warnings Signal Impending Reversion in Risk Assets
If I keep saying the same thing, may eventually be right. It may finally be time for some overdue reversion in risk assets. Collapsing Bitcoin vs. gold warned us. https://t.co/68bBhmBmJ1
Shift to US Treasuries as Gold Peaks
I'm not supposed to give investment advice, but compliance has never said I can't suggest overweighting US Treasuries :) Tinderbox Seeking a Spark: US Treasuries vs. Gold A basic factor may be all that's needed to spur some reversion from the...
Soybean Prices Capped at $12 Amid Record Brazil Output
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside crude's spike...
Bitcoin Poised to Revisit $10k by 2026
The Bursting Crypto Bubble and Potential $10,000 Bitcoin in 2026 - Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting. Roughly $10,000 is also the first-born crypto's most traded price since...
Hormuz Closure Sparks Recession, Futures Hint Deflation
Hormuz Closure, December Futures Signal Post-Inflation Deflation - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz might have already triggered a global recession, with lose-lose implications for most risk assets and commodities -- particularly crude oil. Rolling to front-month just before...
Gas at $5 vs 5% Bonds: Inflation Signal
Natural Gas $5, T-Bonds 5%: Inflation vs. Deflation - January (Jan27) US natural gas futures and the 30-year Treasury bond on the same scale highlights inflation vs. deflation implications of $5 per million BTU gas and 5% yields. Full report on...
US Stock Volatility May Ignite Recovery Amid Deflation
A Lose-Lose? Crude Spike vs. Buried Equity Volatility - Subdued US stock market volatility may have found a worthy spark for recovery, with deflationary implications. US stock-market capitalization was down about $6 trillion year to date to March 30, representing...
Stocks vs Commodities Divergence May Finally Revert
What Stops Stocks vs. Commodities Reversion? An extremely extended US stock market vs. commodities and GDP may have found a worthy spark for reversion, with post-inflation deflation leanings. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/KWrklODsPM {BI COMD} |#commodities #stockmarket #crudeoil @BBGIntelligence
Natural Gas Spike Signals Crude Oil Slide to $50
US Natural Gas' 100% 1Q Pump-Then-Dump May Guide 2026 Crude Oil - The roughly 100% 1Q rise in the front US natural gas future, and reversal to minus 18% on March 27, may lead crude oil's way in 2026, as...
US Natural Gas Floor Shifts to $3, Not $2
Is $3 the New $2 Floor for US Natural Gas? The front US natural gas future hasn't ended a quarter below $3 per million BTUs since 2Q24. Is $3 replacing $2 as the new floor? The 2026-27 winter should be a...
Heating Oil Doubles Q1, Echoes 2008 Energy Crisis
Heating Oil, Distillate Surges and Price Peaks - Heating oil's 100% surge in 1Q may emphasize extreme stress and the potential for demand destruction that typically results when energy prices spike. On a weekly basis since 1986, the 4.5 ratio...
Q1 Pump‑Then‑Dump Sets Potential Peaks for Metals
Gold, Silver, Copper 1Q Pump-Then-Dump Pattern Might Define 2026 - Signs of high-price cures, common in more elastic commodities, emerged in the metals sector in 1Q. My analysis suggests pump-then-dump patterns to record highs in gold, silver and copper could...
Gold's 2025 Surge Signals Possible 2026 Rebound
Gold's 2025 Rally Was Prescient: Is It Hangover Time? Gold may have one main problem -- ample room for reversion. At the end of February, the metal stretched to its highest-ever vs. the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index and its greatest premium...
Metals Likely Pump‑Then‑Dump After 2026 Peak
2026 May Mark Enduring Metals Peaks - The Bloomberg Commodity All Metals Total Return Subindex cut its 22% gain for 2026 (to the Jan. 29 high) to roughly 2% on March 27. Did the metals sector set a pump-then-dump peak,...
2026 Gold and Crude Face Pump‑Then‑Dump Risk
2026 Pump-Then-Dump Risks in Both Gold and Crude - Gold's big green 2026 annual candle to its Jan. 29 high of $5,595 an ounce risks turning red by year-end -- particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is secured -- with...
Soybean $12 Barrier Demands $100+ Oil, Crop Shortfalls
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil - It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside...
Grain Producers Hedge as Futures Signal Mild Profitability
March Selling When They're Yelling in Grains - A takeaway from the March 24-25 Bloomberg Farm, Food & Fuel Summit in Kansas City was that many Corn Belt grain producers used recent price increases to hedge. Corn and soybean futures...
US‑Canada Crude Surplus Fuels Dec26 WTI Spike
Growing US, Canada Crude and Fuel Surplus - When the December 2026 (Dec26) WTI crude future started trading in 2017, the US and Canada had a supply-demand deficit near 1 million barrels a day (MMb/d). Now it's a roughly 7 MMb/d...
US Stockpiles Keep $5 Corn From Surpassing 2022 Peak
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66 apex...
Early 2026 Market Volatility Signals Potential Crude Oil Dump
A Tactical Traders Delight May Be Just Getting Started - 2026 - Gold, silver, copper, the S&P 500, Bitcoin and US natural gas have turned 1Q gains into declines. How sustainable are the pumps-then-dumps? Crude oil may be next. That...
Fuel Price Surge Echoes 2008, 2022, Threatens Equities
Gasoline, Diesel Price Surges May Mirror 2008, 2022 - US average gasoline and diesel prices have approached the $4 and $5 a gallon thresholds, raising the prospect of greater consumer and economic stress -- and peaks akin to 2008 and...
WTI May Top Near $120 by 2026, Echoing 2008
WTI Peaks and Recessions: $120 (2026), $147 (2008), $130 (2022) - WTI crude oil was near unchanged for the week ending March 20 despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining mostly closed, suggesting a potential topping process reminiscent of 2008. Roughly...
2026 Commodity Pump‑Then‑Dump May Hit WTI Crude
Crude vs. 2026 Commodity Pump-Then-Dump Pattern - Front-month US natural gas futures surged roughly 100% to the January peak, then reversed to about a 15% decline by March 20. Will WTI crude oil follow? Silver and copper have also shifted...
Silver's Pump‑dump Threatens Broader Market Stability
The Devil's Metal: Silver and Risks of Contagion - Silver's 1Q pump-then-dump may prove contagious. The so-called "devil's metal" has lived up to its reputation, reversing a 63% year-to-date gain on Jan. 28 to a 5% decline on March 20....
Gold's Fastest Rally Since 1980 Signals Bull Market
$5,000 Gold Stretched Akin to 1980, 2011 Highs - Highlighting the extreme velocity of gold's rally, the store of value at the end of February reached the greatest premium to its 60-month moving average since 1980 and lowest ever vs. the...
2026 Asset Ceilings Set by Q1 Highs, Volatility Soon
Sell 1Q, Buy 4Q26? Bitcoin, Copper, Gold, Silver, Crude, Stocks - Inklings of 9/11, 2008 and 2022 are gaining traction in 2026, while US stock-market volatility is near decade lows. Akin to 2008, post-inflation deflation may trickle down from the...
Gold Volatility Peaks as Nasdaq Hits Low, Signaling Market Reversion
Crocodile Jaws May Have Begun Biting in Gold vs. NDX Volatility - Gold's highest 180-day volatility since 2009, juxtaposed with the lowest for the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) since 2018, forms a crocodile-jaw pattern ripe to bite. My graphic highlights what...
Gold's 2025 Surge Signals Next Market Pivot
Gold's parabolic rally in 2025 warned us, now what? https://t.co/gPI9FAAgip #crudeoil #gold #energy #metals #Iran @markets
Iran Conflict Triggers Gold‑Crude Reversal Signal
Iran War Sparked Gold/Crude Reversion - Significant reversal potential, with a worthy catalyst, may be the takeaway from silver reaching its highest ever vs. copper and crude oil, and from the gold/crude ratio peaking in January. Was the Iran-US conflict...
2026 Gold and Crude Face Pump‑Then‑Dump Threat
2026 Pump-Then-Dump Risks in Both Gold and Crude - Gold's big green 2026 annual candle to its Jan. 29 high of $5,595 an ounce risks turning red by year-end -- particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is secured -- with...
BCOM Nears Key Resistance, Mirrors 2008 Surge
Peak Inklings: $120 Crude, $6 Copper, $5 Corn, $7 Natural Gas - Up almost 25% in 2026 to March 17, the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM) is showing its diversification attributes. Will autocorrelation be avoided this time? In 2008,...
US Abundance Could Cap 2026 Corn at $5, Crude at $120
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to almost $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66...
US Supply Surge Could Pull WTI Back to $53
What Stops WTI Crude From Reverting Toward $53? The December WTI crude oil future (Dec26), which becomes front-month just before the midterms, was at roughly $76 a barrel on March 17 and may revert toward $53. Before the closing of the...
Natural Gas Likely to Stabilize Around $3‑$5
Natural Gas $3 or $5 Near Year-End? Risks Appear to Lean Lower - The second consecutive colder-than-normal winter pushed the front US natural gas future to a high of $7.83 per MMBtus in January, and the price near $3 on...
Brent's 120‑to‑40 Cycle May Be Ending
Brent Crude's Pattern: $120 Highs Lead to $40 Lows - Brent crude price surges to $120 a barrel have been resolved near $40 for about two decades. Has that pattern changed? This key macroeconomic question of 2026 may be guided...
Will 2026’s Commodity Volatility Spill Into Stocks?
Can we get through 2026 with crude and gold volatility not trickling up to stocks? https://t.co/owCVec57DY
Gold's Historic Peak Signals Potential Bull‑Market Endgame
Gold Might Be Facing a Lose-Lose vs. Stocks - Gold has reached historic nosebleed levels at 1.6x vs. its five-year moving average in 2026, last matched at the 1979-80 peak, with reversion implications. What's notable from our graphic is the...
Gold-to-Crude Ratio Hits Record, Signals Potential Peak
Historic Gold Stretch vs. Crude May Signal Peak - "Unsustainably high" describes the 79 barrels of WTI crude oil equal to an ounce of gold at the end of February. Only the collapse to negative crude prices in April 2020...
Bitcoin Hangover Signals Broader Risk‑Asset Reversion
Bitcoin's Hangover Could Have Severe Implications - Bitcoin's same-chart syndrome alongside the stock market has broken down. Is it a warning or feint? My bias is the former. There may be a good reason the first-born crypto (now there's millions)...
Surplus Supply Likely Drives Gas Prices Back Toward $2
Gasoline Surge Above $3 May Fuel Reversion Toward $2 - The national average gasoline price has jumped above $3 a gallon on the back of the Iran war, which may fuel reversion toward $2 by year-end. My graphic highlights a...