Silver's Pump‑dump Threatens Broader Market Stability
The Devil's Metal: Silver and Risks of Contagion - Silver's 1Q pump-then-dump may prove contagious. The so-called "devil's metal" has lived up to its reputation, reversing a 63% year-to-date gain on Jan. 28 to a 5% decline on March 20. Will its pump-then-dump trickle down to other assets? My bias leans that way, and the chart shows two reasons why: S&P 500 60-day volatility is still buried, down about 7% in 2026, alongside Bitcoin's roughly 20% slide. Declining stock market volatility in 1Q may, in hindsight, resemble 2008. A secure Strait of Hormuz can prompt a relief rally in most risk assets, but the damage may have been done for a down year for beta, with ebbing-tide implications. The graphic features the start of convergence, which I expect to persist -- rising stock-market volatility and falling risk assets, including gold. Full report on the Bloomberg terminal here: https://t.co/a8nSx9rmeI {BI COMD} #silver #stockmarket #bitcoin #gold @markets
Gold's Fastest Rally Since 1980 Signals Bull Market
$5,000 Gold Stretched Akin to 1980, 2011 Highs - Highlighting the extreme velocity of gold's rally, the store of value at the end of February reached the greatest premium to its 60-month moving average since 1980 and lowest ever vs. the...
2026 Asset Ceilings Set by Q1 Highs, Volatility Soon
Sell 1Q, Buy 4Q26? Bitcoin, Copper, Gold, Silver, Crude, Stocks - Inklings of 9/11, 2008 and 2022 are gaining traction in 2026, while US stock-market volatility is near decade lows. Akin to 2008, post-inflation deflation may trickle down from the...
Gold Volatility Peaks as Nasdaq Hits Low, Signaling Market Reversion
Crocodile Jaws May Have Begun Biting in Gold vs. NDX Volatility - Gold's highest 180-day volatility since 2009, juxtaposed with the lowest for the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) since 2018, forms a crocodile-jaw pattern ripe to bite. My graphic highlights what...
Gold's 2025 Surge Signals Next Market Pivot
Gold's parabolic rally in 2025 warned us, now what? https://t.co/gPI9FAAgip #crudeoil #gold #energy #metals #Iran @markets
Iran Conflict Triggers Gold‑Crude Reversal Signal
Iran War Sparked Gold/Crude Reversion - Significant reversal potential, with a worthy catalyst, may be the takeaway from silver reaching its highest ever vs. copper and crude oil, and from the gold/crude ratio peaking in January. Was the Iran-US conflict...
2026 Gold and Crude Face Pump‑Then‑Dump Threat
2026 Pump-Then-Dump Risks in Both Gold and Crude - Gold's big green 2026 annual candle to its Jan. 29 high of $5,595 an ounce risks turning red by year-end -- particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is secured -- with...
BCOM Nears Key Resistance, Mirrors 2008 Surge
Peak Inklings: $120 Crude, $6 Copper, $5 Corn, $7 Natural Gas - Up almost 25% in 2026 to March 17, the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM) is showing its diversification attributes. Will autocorrelation be avoided this time? In 2008,...
US Abundance Could Cap 2026 Corn at $5, Crude at $120
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to almost $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66...
US Supply Surge Could Pull WTI Back to $53
What Stops WTI Crude From Reverting Toward $53? The December WTI crude oil future (Dec26), which becomes front-month just before the midterms, was at roughly $76 a barrel on March 17 and may revert toward $53. Before the closing of the...
Natural Gas Likely to Stabilize Around $3‑$5
Natural Gas $3 or $5 Near Year-End? Risks Appear to Lean Lower - The second consecutive colder-than-normal winter pushed the front US natural gas future to a high of $7.83 per MMBtus in January, and the price near $3 on...
Brent's 120‑to‑40 Cycle May Be Ending
Brent Crude's Pattern: $120 Highs Lead to $40 Lows - Brent crude price surges to $120 a barrel have been resolved near $40 for about two decades. Has that pattern changed? This key macroeconomic question of 2026 may be guided...
Will 2026’s Commodity Volatility Spill Into Stocks?
Can we get through 2026 with crude and gold volatility not trickling up to stocks? https://t.co/owCVec57DY
Gold's Historic Peak Signals Potential Bull‑Market Endgame
Gold Might Be Facing a Lose-Lose vs. Stocks - Gold has reached historic nosebleed levels at 1.6x vs. its five-year moving average in 2026, last matched at the 1979-80 peak, with reversion implications. What's notable from our graphic is the...
Gold-to-Crude Ratio Hits Record, Signals Potential Peak
Historic Gold Stretch vs. Crude May Signal Peak - "Unsustainably high" describes the 79 barrels of WTI crude oil equal to an ounce of gold at the end of February. Only the collapse to negative crude prices in April 2020...
Bitcoin Hangover Signals Broader Risk‑Asset Reversion
Bitcoin's Hangover Could Have Severe Implications - Bitcoin's same-chart syndrome alongside the stock market has broken down. Is it a warning or feint? My bias is the former. There may be a good reason the first-born crypto (now there's millions)...
Surplus Supply Likely Drives Gas Prices Back Toward $2
Gasoline Surge Above $3 May Fuel Reversion Toward $2 - The national average gasoline price has jumped above $3 a gallon on the back of the Iran war, which may fuel reversion toward $2 by year-end. My graphic highlights a...
2026 Mirrors Past Crises: Bitcoin, Oil, Yields Peak
Is 2026 Next After 9/11, 2008, 2022? Bitcoin Slides - This year may be shaping up like some combination of 2001, 2008 and 2022, with similar risk-asset-reversion implications. Crude oil's spike to its $147-a-barrel peak in 2008 accelerated the Great...
Volatility Signals Potential Crypto Peak Amid Market Rollovers
Just Getting Started, If Volatility Is a Guide - Whether volatility can stay buried may be the key question as the Nasdaq-100's (NDX) 50-day moving average rolls over alongside Bitcoin. A low-price-cure cycle common in autocorrelated commodities may be afflicting...
WTI Crude Likely Slides Below $57.42 by 2026
A Down 2026 for WTI Crude Oil Is Under $57.42; What Stops It? The world's largest energy producer and net exporter's attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provided strong reasons to pump crude oil prices...
Energy Index Surge Threatened by Falling US‑Canada Demand
Collapsing US, Canada Demand vs. Supply and Energy - The Bloomberg Energy Spot Index (BCOMENSP) has had an exceptional year in 2026, gaining about 30% to March 10. Is it sustainable? My graphic shows top reasons why the 1Q pump...
Rising Gas Prices Clash With Record Low Market Volatility
$3.50 Gasoline Spike May Fuel $2 Toward Year-End - The oxymoron of spiking energy and precious-metals volatility vs. a complacent stock market may prove unsustainable, with deflationary implications. Sustainability is a key question from my graphic showing the national average...
December Crude and Corn Futures Poised Below $55, $4.60
Massive Short Cleansing or New Bull Market? Crude May Follow Gas - The invisible hand can be quite efficient in autocorrelated commodities, and crude oil and corn producers may have just received a chance to hedge and bring on more...
December Corn Caps Near $5 Amid Rising Stocks
Did December Corn Peak Near $5? Corn's $5-a-bushel ceiling may have solidified due to the Iran war. When December corn (Dec26) began trading in 2022 at about the same price as on March 9 near $4.85 a bushel, US ending stocks...
Iran Conflict Could Halt Grain Surplus Recovery
Commodity Price Pumps and Iran vs. Russia's Ukraine Invasion - The US exports about 25% of its grain production, and prices have been declining on the back of the 2022 spikes, which incentivized more supply -- notably from Brazil. Russia's...
WTI Could Hit $115 If Gas Gains Replicate
If the front-month WTI crude oil future matches natural gas’s 100% gain in 2026 to its January peak, it would reach about $115 a barrel -- then what by the midterms? Gas has reversed all of those gains. Spiking crude can be...
Midterm Elections Will Test Q1 Energy Price Surge
Peak Energy Price Inklings in 1Q? Midterms in 4Q a Top Test - The leader of the world's largest energy producer -- and net crude oil and natural gas exporter -- wants lower prices, and elections are in November. The...
Natural Gas Slides Toward $2 Trough After $5 Resistance
$2 Natural Gas Support vs. $5 Resistance - The inability of the front US natural gas future to stay above $5 per million British thermal units may be emphasized by the price just below $3 on March 4 despite a...
Bitcoin's Drop Signals Inevitable Low‑price Commodity Slump
Can we avoid typical low-price cures toward $40 crude, $3.5 corn in 2026? Bitcoin bear market prove otherwise starts at about $74,000 https://t.co/TATxs2Sdkc
Brent Likely to Dip Toward $50 Despite Recent Surge
$50 or $100 Year-End for Brent Crude? It took an unprecedented closure of the Strait of Hormuz to push the front-month Brent crude oil future to extend 2025's high -- now what? December Brent is near $69 and will become front...
Safer Global Outlook Threatens Gold's Recent Surge
A Safer World Could Pressure Stretched Gold - Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a signal to buy gold, and subduing Iran could mark the opposite. Since the "unlimited friendship" between presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in 2022, leadership in...
Brent Oil Slides, Yet Likely Peaks Before Midterms
December 2026 Brent crude oil is down on the day. It will near top step by the Midterms. Higher or lower by then? My bias is lower https://t.co/bu6WD5MAw6
Low Equity Volatility Could Push Silver Below $100
Silver's $100 Ceiling May Be Solidifying - A key risk for silver and most risk assets may be the spike in precious-metals volatility and plunging crypto prices spilling over into equities. My graphic highlights why we view a rebound in equity...
Quick Iran Conflict Could Cap Gold and Oil Gains
US-Israel Invasion of Iran May Cap Crude and Gold - Gold and crude oil may show signs of peaking if the conflict is quick and infrastructure isn't impaired. Both were up about 20% in 2026 before Feb. 28. If typical swift...
Record US Crude Exports Threaten Brent Price Rally
Is Crude Oil Becoming a Rally to Sell? US crude and liquid fuel net exports approaching 4 million barrels a day in 2026 -- the highest ever -- may be a primary price-pressure factor for oil. My graphic shows an annual...
Hidden Market Volatility May Surface via Crypto, Bonds, Metals
Stock market volatility is still buried. Falling cryptos, T-bond yields and spiking precious metals volatility may trickle down. https://t.co/SeGPI6EvAe
Metals May Lift Commodities, Yet Risks Favor Decline
Deflation May Reign If Metals Meet High-Price Cure - That orange juice and cocoa were the worst-performing commodities in 2025, after being among the best in 2024, may foreshadow metals in 2026. In the history of the Bloomberg Commodity Spot...
Metals Enter Bull Market’s High‑Price Phase, Spark Speculation
From Top Commodity Value to Stretched Speculation - Metals 2026: The Bloomberg All Metals Total Return Subindex represents the top-performing sector over time, but metals may have entered the high-price cure stage of a bull market. The highest-velocity rallies since...
US Oversupply Drives Down Energy Prices, Peaks Likely 2026
Peak Gas, Crude Risks Elevated in 2026; Energy Price Trend Down - Absent a supply shock from potential hostilities with Iran, crude oil may be more likely to peak in 1Q on the back of natural gas. Predominant downward price...
Brazil's Record Soy Output Caps 2026 Prices Near $11.70
Are Soybeans Getting Too Hot Near $11.70? Runaway Brazilian soybean production is a top pressure factor for prices, and $11.70 a bushel in 2026 may be too high. My graphic shows the US-traded oilseed bumping up against the 2025 peak, at...
Gold's Historic Premium Signals Potential 2025 Bust
The 2026 Gold Rush Risks a 2025 Bitcoin-Like Bust - At almost 3x, gold has never sustained a greater stretch vs. its 120-month moving average with inflation so low. The graphic highlights a historic oxymoron for the traditional haven: its...
Copper Must Stay Above $6 to Avoid Deflationary Dominoes
Atlas' Burden Shifting to $6 Copper? Bitcoin's Gravity Pull - Copper may need to remain above $6 a pound or else. If the economically and stock-market-sensitive industrial metal follows falling Bitcoin, iron ore, crude oil and Chinese government-bond yields, it...
Copper Above $6 Offers Poor Risk‑Reward for New Longs
A Lot Riding on Copper Remaining Over $6 - Copper, the S&P 500 and US Treasury 30-year yield on the same scale may emphasize the implications of some normal reversion. That the metal hasn't had a year since 2021 without...
Copper Overheated: Price Spike Signals Potential Deflation
Is Copper a Prudent Short? Next to its industrial commodity and inflation companions -- iron ore, Brent crude oil and Chinese Government 10-year Bond yields (CGBs) -- copper might be too hot. From a base of 100, starting with our iron...
Gold Overvalued? Questioning Its Safe‑Haven Status
Is the store-of-value, gold, too stretched to be considered a safe haven? https://t.co/nC6Jxgznlb #gold #bonds @markets https://t.co/VvCZYA742S
Short Bitcoin, Copper, Silver Near 2026 Peaks
Sell the 2026 Open, Buy the Close? Bitcoin, Copper, Silver Tilts - Potentially prudent shorts around $90,000 for Bitcoin, $6 per pound for copper and $100 an ounce for silver could gain traction -- and companions -- when stock...
Gold Volatility Surge Signals Looming Stock Market Reversal
Gold Volatility Could Trickle Up to Stocks - Gold's highest 180-day volatility since 2009, juxtaposed with the lowest for the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) since 2018, forms a crocodile-jaw pattern ripe to bite. My graphic highlights what might be the top...
Jan Gas Futures Near $5, Could Slip Below $4.40
January Natural Gas vs. Lower Energy, Rates Goals - The January natural gas future (Jan27) is typically the tip of the price curve and will be tops in relevance around the US midterms, with a potential downward bias. Preexisting trends...
Gold Poised for Reversion as Oil Bears Down
Is Gold the Next Big Commodity Trade? Historic Reversion Risks - Geopolitical tensions could add fuel to crude oil's bear market as it approaches good resistance while heightening peak signals in gold's bull market. The metal has reached historic extremes...
Supply Scare Could Deepen Brent’s Bear Market
A Supply Scare Can Add Fuel to Brent Downtrend - What will end crude's downtrend may be a top commodity question of 2026. A supply scare that spikes prices might fuel more of the same -- US-led Western Hemisphere production...