Brent at $230 if Hormuz Disruption Persists, Threatens Growth
MS sees $230 Brent in a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption scenario, which would result in a significant growth headwind, risking recession The Beat June 2026 https://t.co/VDbOs9FTx8
Big IPOs Ahead, Demand Outpaces Supply This Year
Very few IPOs lately... but massive ones on the horizon Relative to equity market cap, however, issuance should register close to the average volume from 2015-2019 GS: we expect corporate equity demand will continue to outweigh supply this year. https://t.co/aAnRqLwUJG
Rate Hikes Unlikely as War‑induced Inflation Fades
GS: We Continue to See Rate Hikes as Unlikely, Largely Because Economic Conditions Today Make It Less Likely That the Initial Inflation Shock from the War Will Spark Sustained High Inflation https://t.co/xF6IrQbwJZ
Tariffs and Oil
GS: Tariffs, Higher Oil Prices, and (Mismeasured) Effects of AI Demand Are Likely to Keep Year-over-Year Core PCE Inflation Close to 3% All Year, but We Still Expect a Decline to Close to 2% in 2027 https://t.co/MtiVof1Eai
Fed Delays Cuts Until 2027 as Labor Remains Strong
GS: No Fed Cuts This Year We are pushing the final two rate cuts in our Fed forecast back to June and December of 2027 The labor market has been stronger than we anticipated, and we now expect the unemployment rate to...
IWC Microcaps Surge 2.2% After Bullish Engulfing
$IWC microcaps with a massive bullish engulfing marubozu working today.. it was down big this morning Now +2.2%. Risk on. https://t.co/hMB46a9Nqv
Financials Surge, Outpacing Tech Since Jan 2025
Pretty epic rotation day... Financials best session vs Tech since Jan 2025 $XLF $XLK Dead cat bounce for value vs growth? https://t.co/R3yjh3Ll0e
US Manufacturing PMI Surges Into Expansionary Zone
GS: US Manufacturing PMIs Have Risen Notably This Year and Are Now Firmly in Expansionary Territory https://t.co/wfAc8dnQf0
S&P 500 Likely Can't Reach Ten-Day Winning Streak
The S&P 500 could be hard-pressed to extend the winning streak (daily) to 10 https://t.co/DXUvB5cZuX
Solid Jobs Data to Boost Yields, Strengthen Dollar
BofA: We expect another solid US labor report, reinforcing near-term views of higher yields and USD strength Fed hikes unlikely to materialize until u-rate close to 4.0% https://t.co/rVo6rlis1u
Vacancies Outnumber Unemployed for First Time Since June 2025
BofA: For the first time since Jun '25, there are more vacancies than unemployed workers https://t.co/E6QwPieBtR
S&P 500 Hits Nine-Day Streak, Markets Reach Record Highs
S&P 500 daily winning streak extends to 9 DJIA, Nasdaq, $VEU $EEM record highs https://t.co/PnPqwHHsm9
Weak Demand Offsets Supply Shocks, Keeping Brent Volatile
GS: Why has Brent dropped 22% from its March peak despite Mideast tensions? Weak end demand (jet fuel, petchems, and China/Europe road fuels) and rapid destocking are offsetting supply shocks. With 2mb/d of demand downside, 2026 Q4 price risks for Brent...
Stocks Outperform Bonds and Commodities Over Century
Stocks for the long run... US stocks produced a 6.9% real return (closer to 5% for ex-US) 1802-2025 Bonds 3.3% Bills 2.5% Gold 0.9% Oil 0.4% (since the early 1900s) Dollar -1.5% My take: commodities may be tempting, but their long-term returns are dreadful https://t.co/LdXZjJ7FjN
S&P 500 Buyback Yield Drops Below Historical Median
GS: Slowing buyback growth alongside equity market appreciation has continued to push the S&P 500 buyback yield lower. The S&P 500 trailing 12-month net buyback yield sits at 1.9%, compared with a median of 2.4% since 2005. https://t.co/PQ1XO5AuhK