IPO First-Day Gains Hit 21%, Matching Historical Norm
GS: First-day returns of recent IPOs indicate a healthy appetite for new issuance, with the average IPO in Q2 rising by 21% on its first trading day, in line with the historical average. https://t.co/A1JwXlFZoT
Global M&A Volumes Projected to Rise 18% Next Year
GS: Our Global Financials Team forecasts c.18% growth in global M&A volumes over the next 12 months. https://t.co/ujbYtQ1RFz
Momentum Factor Delivers Record-Strong Returns Recently
GS: Our equal-weight, long/short Momentum factor has generated one of its strongest returns on record during the last few months. https://t.co/8HBVQJHeDJ
Three Forces Driving Yields Higher Across Curve
📈 3 forces pushing yields higher across the curve: ⏱️ Front-end: Sticky inflation ("higher for longer") 💻 Belly: Heavy hyperscaler corporate issuance 🏦 Long-end: More Treasury supply + less Fed demand Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/bdL9dbSfur
10‑yr TIPS Yield Beats History, Bonds Still Viable
10yr TIPS yield of 2.15% is actually above the historical average JPMAM Don't dismiss bonds https://t.co/hVjJJcczis
Financials and Energy Cheap; Industrials Overpriced Yet AI‑Boosted
S&P 500 sector valuations... Financials, Energy remain very cheap. $XLF $XLE Industrials priciest... but you get some AI-buildout pixie dust there $XLI GS https://t.co/HQrDpfxr84
Business Investment Outpaces Consumption, Adding 1.4% to Q1 GDP
Business fixed investment contributed a massive 1.4% to real GDP in Q1... a larger growth driver than consumption JPMAM #AI https://t.co/PAqtt2OUYa
Fed Shows Reluctance to Cut, Open to Rate Hikes
GS: Waller’s comments today and the minutes to the FOMC’s April meeting released on Wednesday suggest that the Committee has become more reluctant to cut... ...and more open to the possibility of rate hikes in recent weeks. https://t.co/8fABqSMYVP
Mortgage Rates Drop 8 Bps, Now 6.67%
Mortgage rates back off 8bps to 6.67% today, down from 6.98% a year ago https://t.co/35WGHKd75r
Gasoline Futures Slip, Sub‑$4 Pump Prices Possible
$3.48 RBOB gasoline futures suggest some modest relief at the pump in the days ahead July RBOB is a dime lower, too The October contract trades $2.83, so sub-$4 at the pump possible by end of summer https://t.co/OmnLTXMVTc
Broad Market Breadth Turns Negative Across All Segments
S&P 500 Equal Weight US stock market ex-SPX MidCap 400 SmallCap 600 Russell 1000 EW Russell 2000 Microcaps International Stocks International small caps All negative in the last month https://t.co/rSD4f9RSsr
S&P Near Low, Sector ETFs Climb, SMIDs Lag
S&P 500 near the LoD, but most sector ETFs are up... value holding up fine... but not US SMIDs & Ex-US https://t.co/XDSeIq8kX4
Rate Hike Hits 30‑yr Treasury Harder than AGG
A 1% rate rise implies a 10.7% annual loss on the 30yr Treasury bond. $TLT $AGG would lose 1.2% These are much softer losses, given higher starting yields, compared to 4-6 years ago. https://t.co/a2m9WEhBuj
ADP Reports Record 42.25k Weekly Hires
ADP weekly employment - new high at 42.25k/wk for the four weeks ending May 2 https://t.co/NGJuGoUAi8
S&P 500 EPS Forecast Jumps to $360 by Memorial Day
S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS was $300 around last Thanksgiving... could be near $360 by Memorial Day @Yardeni https://t.co/LIIThdbkx8
Core PCE Climbs 3.3% YoY, Highest Since 2023
BofA: Our economists are now tracking +3.3% YoY core PCE in April – the highest since 2023 https://t.co/kiWMvw9BU9
S&P Flat; EM ETF Drops 4%, Small Caps Lag
S&P 500 about flat this week $EEM crushed 4% Small craps and $EFA about 2.5pts of negative alpha https://t.co/W5ZjCIzhCb
IGV Outperforms S&P, Signaling Software Bottom
$IGV beating the S&P 500 by 2.5ppt today... rounded relative bottom forming for software? @stockcharts @fundstrat https://t.co/qUANvs169z
2‑Year Yield 38bps Above Fed Funds, Historically Normal
2yr yield 4.01%... 38bps above the Fed Funds rate... which is historically extremely normal https://t.co/vo9smDHjd9
Most S&P 500 Sector ETFs Rise, AI Lags
7/11 S&P 500 sector ETFs are up today... AI trade kicked to the curb https://t.co/VI4ITL5IyT
Consumer Discretionary ETF Sizzles Amid Economic Headwinds
Equal-weight Consumer Discretionary ETF 3-month performance heat map is an inferno @stockcharts $RSPD Gas prices, another pandemic, negative real wages... not good. https://t.co/Ukjd3xD6jl
S&P Eyes 7th Winning Week as Sectors Lag
S&P 500 gunning for its 7th straight positive week... as EW Industrials & EW Discretionary pace for 5 straight negative weeks @stockcharts https://t.co/CC1DABfpaS https://t.co/A2AzvRdNFc
RSPD Near 52‑Week Low After Months of Decline
EW Consumer Discretionary... $RSPD... a couple months and a couple percent from a 52wk low https://t.co/qBKmfhVPmx
SPX Hits Record Amid Rising Volatility and Chip Surge
Interesting today.. jumpy yields, oil up a bit, silver soared, retail rekt... memory/storage/chips kept surging VIX near 19, SPX record high, more new lows than highs
Cocoa Prices Surge 50% YTD Despite Recent Crash
Cocoa crashed, but it's up 50% from January... not like we ever saw a drop in chocolate prices https://t.co/2TNYkxdpnV
More 52‑week Lows than Highs, yet S&P Hits Record
More S&P 500 52wk lows than 52wk highs today... the index is at an all-time high right now More from me on @stockcharts: https://t.co/CC1DABfpaS https://t.co/lUMNwiIsUB
XRT Hits Near‑all‑time Low versus SPY, Worst Since 2021
$XRT Retail ETF near an all-time low vs the S&P 500 $SPY... almost its worst relative session since early 2021.. besides that, you have to go back to 2008-09 Rare to see days this bad https://t.co/oY11XKVlro
Equity Risk Premiums Hit Pre‑GFC Lows; Bonds Gain Appeal
APAC ex Japan's equity risk premium sinks to the lowest since right before the GFC $VPL $EEM Same with Europe $VGK ... bonds increasingly attractive vs stocks https://t.co/9RoQNv3ref
HSBC Lifts S&P 500 Target to 7,650, Eyes 8,000
HSBC raises S&P 500 target to 7,650, sees path to 8,000 Joining RBC, Yardeni.. @seekingalpha https://t.co/OST088n9Ol
Goldman Predicts Weak PPI, Retail Sales on Inflation‑adjusted Terms
PPI Weds, then comes Retail Sales Thursday Goldman sees tepid numbers, negative on an inflation-adjusted basis https://t.co/LTRiiVzUzb
Job Growth Hits Breakeven, Yet Unemployment Climbs
GS: Underlying Trend Job Growth Has Now Rebounded to Roughly Our Estimate of the Breakeven Rate, but the Unemployment Rate Rose https://t.co/62hwvAItYn
Energy Pass‑through Keeps Core PCE Near 3%
GS: Energy Passthrough Will Likely Keep Core PCE Inflation Closer to 3% Than 2% Through Year-End https://t.co/P0LWNyKbtE
April M&A Activity Slows, Excluding March Mega Deals
M&A activity cooled in April. BofA Excludes acquisition of xAI Corp ($250bn) and OpenAI Inc. ($120bn) in March 2026 https://t.co/9c99Rj4Wj7
EBITDA Growth Hits Four-Year High Across Issuers
Median YoY change in EBITDA... best in 4 years (it's not just 5 companies) (based on US investment grade non-financial non-utility issuers) BofA https://t.co/235aQY9wwT
20‑minute Commute Loss Equals 19% Pay Cut
According to researchers at the University of the West of England (UWE Bristol), adding 20 minutes to a round-trip daily commute has the same negative impact on job satisfaction as a 19% pay cut. h/t @danielcrosby https://t.co/jUUP2UfRoO
EPS Outlook: Russell 45
-Russell 2000 EPS growth rate hold at at 45% for the current year $IWM -S&P 500 up to 23% for CY 2026 $SPY -Steady 10-13% for the S&P 500 EW isn't bad $RSP https://t.co/noFpTnYumM
SOX's Six-Week Rally Stands Out on Log Chart
$SOX 6-week rally is impressive even on an all-time weekly log chart @stockcharts https://t.co/dRPc37eWjs https://t.co/cGz2ILx8uj
Devil Wears Prada 2 Poised for Mother’s Day Sales
Solid box office recently... The Devil Wears Prada 2 is likely to score major Mother's Day sales too @augurinfinity https://t.co/HE0D4ITfFS
Morgan Stanley: Stay US‑Overweight, Favor Large‑Cap Over Small‑Mid
Morgan Stanley: Remain O/W U.S. relative to international given positive earnings trends and relative resilience to energy-related supply disruptions. Move to U/W Large-Caps vs. SMID with added O/W to SMID in U.S. along with continued exposure in Europe. https://t.co/jsHtsvDvOQ
S&P 500 Tech P/E Stagnates Mid‑Range Since 2020
The S&P 500 Expanded Tech P/E is right in the middle of its range since 2020... quite boring, actually @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/7FQmhF8OUY
Emerging Markets Showing Unprecedented Relative Strength
I've never seen such relative strength in Emerging Markets... of course, I was in high school from 2003-2006 (not looking at charts) $EEM @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/Z5B2ZbCVtI
MidCap Tech Soars While Consumer Discretionary Stumbles
Eye-popping MidCap Tech returns MidCap Consumer Discretionary returns point to a very weak consumer backdrop @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/q3db3UUSfs
Initial Claims Plummet Below Historical Seasonal Range
Initial Claims has broken sharply below the 2023-25 range for this time of year @augurinfinity https://t.co/8h7fMZGuVZ
Retail Sales Surge Masked by Inflation Effects
Big Johnson Redbook retail sales lately, but a chunk of the YoY gain is inflation @augurinfinity April Retail Sales next week from the Census Bureau.. watch the "real" numbers https://t.co/CMhuPDSMIQ
TMT Outperforms; Energy, Healthcare, Others Lag
TMT is crushing it in the last month+ Energy, Health Care, Financials, Staples, Utes lagging @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/dCOm3pTZuB
SMID Stocks Poised to Outperform as Growth Broadens
Morgan Stanley: As Economic Growth Broadens, SMID To Outperform SMID Earnings To Experience a Cyclical and Structural Tailwind SMID Equities Remain Extremely Cheap vs. Large Cap https://t.co/8lzqbJFZyX
Strong‑balance‑sheet Stocks Stay Pricey Amid Capital Cost Pressure
GS: We see limited scope for further rotation into weak-balance-sheet stocks, as the cost of capital is under pressure from Fed policy and AI-related demand for capital. Premium for strong balance sheet stocks remains elevated versus history https://t.co/eUHYCy1ace
Egg Prices Hit Record Low Near One Dollar
Eggs approaching $0 Down to 17 cents per dozen wholesale ($0.99/dozen at the store by me)... easily a record low, adjusted for wages https://t.co/nNvmz5OSuZ
High‑Yield Spreads Hit Pre‑Iran Conflict Lows Globally
DB: US high-yield spreads are now tighter than levels prior to the Iran conflict... in Europe too @augurinfinity https://t.co/Yu7IqKp2Aw https://t.co/s9fwrJSPan
Energy Beats Tech YTD, But Momentum Fades Fast
Energy $XLE still beating Tech $XLK YTD... but those alligator jaws are snapping fast @Koyfincharts https://t.co/LUWxrNi5ax