Over Half of S&P 500 Post Q1 Results
GS: With the busiest week of the earnings season behind us, 63% of S&P 500 companies have now reported Q1 2026 results. https://t.co/KNUoyd1Kk6
Broad US ETFs Beat S&P 500 This Year
The average US stock ETF $EQAL +11% YTD International stocks $VEU +10% All US stocks ex SPX $VXF +9% S&P 500 EW $RSP +6% S&P 500 $SPY +6% https://t.co/rkwAjVmCtE
Spot Oil Prices Outpace Futures as Timing Drives Gap
"WTI and Brent are near $100, but physical crude is way higher." Isn't that just a timing issue? Real-time oil is obviously going to be way more expensive than oil contracts expiring in 1-2 months.
ADP Payrolls Firm; Jobless Claims Hit 1969 Low
Firm ADP weekly payrolls, lowest Initial Claims since 1969... we'll find out next Friday if the labor market held up in April https://t.co/XRYrs03w6u
Apple Hits YTD High, Shows Bearish Shadow Pre‑Berkshire
$AAPL YTD high, but a long upper shadow there... all ahead of the Berkshire meeting tomorrow https://t.co/YhMnG1IOcu
Great Lakes Gas Prices Surge to $4.43 Average
$4.43 average gas price right now - massive w/w gains in the Great Lakes.. $1 or more in some spots https://t.co/2ER5bwqoz3
Intel Hits $500B Market Cap, Outpacing Rivals
$INTC is now a half-trillion $ market cap... larger than: $ORCL $COST $MA $NFLX $PG $KO @Koyfincharts https://t.co/OzwzCPW5r2
Intel's 131% Surge Sets New Five‑Week Record
$INTC is +131% in the last 5 weeks... that's a record... by a factor of 2 https://t.co/YsY6ttvD1z
Only 8 S&P 500 Stocks Double, None Halve This Year
8 S&P 500 stocks are up 100% or more YTD 0 S&P 500 stocks are down 50% or more YTD https://t.co/ZbrCrmPrha
Northeast Wage Growth up 3.3%, but Low‑mid
BofAI: In March, wage growth was up 3.3% YoY in the Northeast The “K” within wage growth was strongest in the South, but in the Northeast, both lower- and middle-income households’ wage growth turned negative https://t.co/r5KRTSAaWl
Gasoline’s Income Share Lower; Price Pressure Remains Limited
BofAI: Gasoline is less important than other necessities as a share of income…and so far price pressure from these categories is limited https://t.co/fbHVra0Jam
Card Use Rebounds, yet Low‑income Households Feel Tighter
BofAI: Overall average card utilization is close to the pre-Covid period…but there was less wiggle room for lower-income households in March 2026 https://t.co/ruOWs46POD
US Nominal GDP Set to Jump 75% by 2027
BofA Hartnett: US nominal GDP in the midst of an unprecedented 75% surge from 2020 to 2027 https://t.co/S8KY87lUlL
AI Adoption Drives Surge in New Business Applications
Sectors with the highest AI adoption rates have also seen the strongest growth in new business applications since 2022, showing that AI is lowering the barriers to starting a company Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/y5Iy0nScl3
Income Growth Stalls, Unemployment Rate Stays Low
BofA: The slowdown in income growth is notable, but it hasn’t coincided with a meaningful rise in the U-rate During recessions, the U-rate rises and real income declines https://t.co/47HVfOmyFP
Card Spending Growth Remains Strong Despite Iran War Shock
BofA: Total card ex gas spending growth continues to run at healthy levels despite the shock from the Iran war https://t.co/EZSBhhElrt
Alphabet Nears Top Spot, Closing on Nvidia
$GOOGL a few percentage points from overtaking $NVDA as the world's most valuable company @augurinfinity https://t.co/FYDdXsHxrP
Q1 Economy Shows Healthy Underlying Momentum, BofA Reports
BofA: Underlying momentum in the economy remained healthy in 1Q Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers (saar, % ch annualized) https://t.co/wG9LR2zOvP
BofA Sell‑Side Indicator Stays Neutral, Near Sell
BofA Sell Side Indicator was unchanged in April Strategists’ equity sentiment unchanged in April, “Neutral”, but closer to a “Sell” signal than a “Buy” https://t.co/pf5gAkdMLy
AI Momentum Undermines Traditional “Sell in May” Strategy
Sell in May? Hard to make the case with this kind of AI momentum Look at that, a quote from yours truly @seekingalpha https://t.co/EYmeGHOPIc https://t.co/li4GQPEUvm
Global Markets Surge as US Mega‑cap Tech Lags
A ton of green away from US mega-cap tech $RSP, SMIDs, & ex-US +1%... bitcoin, bonds, gold also up https://t.co/DbNQGqHO7X
Caterpillar Boosts DJIA, Offsetting 90‑Point Drop
DJIA would be down 90pts if not for $CAT (adding 370pts to the average) https://t.co/enUdGgtidO
30‑Year Treasury Yield Hovers Near 5%
Lots of data... yields remain lower this morning... but that 30yr is still close to 5% https://t.co/ol2XJ3StCG
Semiconductors Now Exceed Consumer Discretionary in Market Cap
Semis represented more than 10% of global market cap as of Monday... that industry is larger than the Consumer Discretionary sector UBS via @augurinfinity https://t.co/53A9gOEPr5 https://t.co/mUSyBhDNrN
Tech Stocks Split: Google up, Microsoft and Meta Slide
$MSFT turns red, but not as bad as $META $GOOGL +4% Seeing some red in chips @finviz_com https://t.co/AcL7e93ASS
RSPD:SPY Ratio Hits Lowest Level Since 2000
The RSPD:SPY ratio just sank to its worst level since the year 2000 Equal-weight discretionary fresh relative lows to the S&P 500 $RSPD $SPY More from me on @stockcharts: https://t.co/Y9zWo1TSRi https://t.co/7GXaiqCS3w
Oil Jumps 3.5% as Markets Stay Flat
$SPY +0.1% $QQQ +0.4% $SMH +0.9% $IWM +0.1% $EEM +0.5% $TLT -0.2% $USO +3.5% $IBIT +1.0% $GLD -0.4% @finviz_com https://t.co/opW23XtMOB
Gold Remains Bullish Long‑Term, Yet Near‑Term Risks Loom
GS: Structurally Bullish Gold, Tactically Cautious Near‑Term Risks Skew to the Downside, With Gold Still Vulnerable to Liquidation If Hormuz Disruptions Persist https://t.co/jO5rDjhspl
May RBOB Hits $3.57; June Settles
May RBOB soared to $3.57 today, but June will soon be the prompt.. it's 13 cents lower https://t.co/FFrAdC596l
Top 10 US Firms Hold >40% of S&P 500
10 largest US companies back > 40% of total S&P 500 market cap @augurinfinity https://t.co/yyCg7bayuE
SOXX EPS Forecast Jumps Over $400 Since Q4 2025
$SOXX forward EPS estimate has surged from $250 to above $400 just since Q4 2025 @johnauthers @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/QSQJXvqIWj
Prevailing Belief: 5% Inflation From GFC to Pre‑Covid
Pretty wild that from the GFC through pre-Covid, folks thought inflation would be 5% https://t.co/NTWRmpY7nk
Redbook Sales Jump 7.7% YoY, Best Since 2022
Redbook retail sales +7.7% YoY - highest since late 2022 Index is a weekly sales-weighted measure of YoY SSS growth across ~9k large US gen. merch. retailers. Covering locations open 12+ mos, it reps >80% of official US Dept. of Commerce...
DJIA Climbs Despite CAT Drag; KO Jumps, NVDA Dips
$CAT weighs on the DJIA, but the Index is up $UNH $AMGN @stockcharts $KO popping 6% $NVDA -2% https://t.co/jNhwJV2stv
US Home Prices Rise Only 1.2% YoY, Still Deflationary
US home price appreciation slowed to 1.2% YoY in March, and inflation-adjusted remained negative. weighing on US inflation @soberlook AEI Housing Center https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/5h5g2SST3S
Small Caps Lead US Returns, Beating Large Caps
Narrow breadth? YTD returns... US large caps +5.2% US small caps +13.8% International stocks +9.3% https://t.co/ch8YH720NS
NVDA Surge Raises Questions for SOXX, SMH
$NVDA +8% last two days... record high. But is that bearish for $SOXX $SMH? My thoughts... https://t.co/dRPc37eWjs https://t.co/Kt4G5qdi98
Nuclear Stocks Show Low Correlation with S&P 500
BofA: Nuclear power stocks have a low correlation to the S&P 500 $NUKZ $XLU https://t.co/t2mtNnwmGQ
EM Small‑Cap Rally Likely, Few Hold Large Positions
EM small caps are ripping? I'm guessing not many folks hold a ton of that. GS https://t.co/qjtoYHe5yP
EM and APAC Gains Powered by EPS Growth, Not Multiples
EM & APAC YTD equity gains stem from EPS growth, not multiple expansion $EEM $VPL GS https://t.co/m4ZsyKrhZv
March PCE Index Projected up 0.7%, Core 0.3%
March PCE Price Index seen having risin 0.7% in March... due out Thursday morning core +0.3% https://t.co/qpzvt3zpKQ
Refined Product Prices Surge, Gap with Crude Hits Record
GS: The Gap Between Refined Product Prices and Crude Prices Is Record Large 'record large' ... good phrase.. using that https://t.co/TpdQfUMb7r
Goldman Sachs Spots Upside Risks to $90
GS: Net Upside Risks to Our Brent Forecast of $90 in 2026Q4, Which Is Above Market Pricing https://t.co/XJuQAU1kbl
War May Spark Persistent Inflation and Rate Hikes
GS: We Would Worry More About the War Sparking Persistent Inflation and Possible Rate Hikes If Wage Growth Accelerated, Inflation Breath Increased, and Inflation Expectations Beyond This Year Rose https://t.co/aWNwI5lWrW
Goldman Predicts Two More Fed Cuts, Dismisses Hikes
GS: Our Probability-Weighted Fed Forecast Is Much More Dovish Than Market Pricing Because We Expect Two More Cuts This Year and Because We Think That Rate Hikes Are Quite Unlikely https://t.co/JZZ2VNnLfU
Oil Forecast Rise Signals 3.4% Headline PCE Inflation
GS: Our Commodities Strategists Have Just Raised Their Oil Price Forecast, and We Now Expect Year-over-year Headline PCE Inflation to Stand at 3.4% and Core PCE Inflation at 2.6% in December 2026 https://t.co/JgB1CnXmdx
Bear Markets Average 14 Months; Bull Runs Span 70 Months
The average bear market lasts 14 months and is followed by a 70-month bull market. JPMAM Had to manually update the current bull run... up to 42 months https://t.co/fr7efuYage
S&P 500 Fell Under
Remember at the start of the month when the S&P 500 traded under 20x earnings? That was awesome. JPMAM https://t.co/4eagWzJBWD
Market Predicts US Gas Hitting $5 This Year
How high will US gas prices get this year? The market says $5.00 @kalshi https://t.co/6iN7z5X7oB https://t.co/iVU1a4Krzb
April Jobs
We'll have to wait until May 8 for the April jobs report, but we will get ISM Mfg this Friday morning @augurinfinity https://t.co/MZgKbyKAGc