Fed's 2% PCE Target: March Data Arrives Thursday
The Fed targets 2% PCE Price Index inflation... we'll get the March read on Thursday @augurinfinity https://t.co/WwdpsZ2jxl
MAGS Implied Volatility Drops Below Historical Levels Ahead of Earnings
Coming into a big week of Mag 7 earnings, $MAGS implied volatility is low at 28%.. finally back below its historical/realized volatility @seekingalpha https://t.co/Sn2hdW5zUN https://t.co/vHayAb3ZUZ
1-Year Inflation Swap Peaks; Stocks Hit All-Time Highs
The 1-year inflation swap is now at the highest level since last September Stocks all-time highs. @augurinfinity https://t.co/HrFvA54Sd7
Nvidia’s Market Cap Now Exceeds Japan’s Economy
$NVDA is once again larger than Japan @augurinfinity (and this with the Nikkei at record highs) https://t.co/ML48sWPOad
Hyperscalers Issue $110bn Debt, Exceeding Forecasts
BofA: Hyperscalers have issued $110bn in debt so far in 2026, sharply above forecasts https://t.co/aIc0cIvDl0
Emerging Markets Outperform Domestic Semis Across Timeframes
So much focus on the domestic semi story, but EM leads across many timeframes @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/1QSy6mddK7
Equity Risk Premium Remains Positive: Stocks Outperform Bonds
S&P 500 equity risk premium (earnings yield minus the 10yr TIPS yield) is still solidly positive... stocks are a better buy than bonds. @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/JAZ7YxWZqN
Hormuz Delay Persists; Stocks Hit Record Highs as Forecasted
Strait of Hormuz likely will not fully reopen for months, Baker Hughes executive says @seekingalpha and stocks are at record highs, just as everyone predicted https://t.co/byIcXkNS7j
2026 IPOs Average 19% First‑day Gain, Matching History
GS: The average 2026 IPO has jumped by 19% on its first trading day, in line with the historical median return. https://t.co/8t0zAeVGQq
Longer Horizons Drastically Reduce Negative Return Risk
$ACWI, the probability of enduring negative returns drops substantially as the investment horizon extends. While the probability of a negative return is 32% over a six-month period, it falls to just 7% over a 10-year period. Standard Chartered https://t.co/z7uo2Tvh4s
MSCI ACWI Ends Year Positive 28 of 38 Times
Despite intra-year volatility, the MSCI $ACWI Index had positive year-end total returns 28 out of the last 38 years since 1988. Standard Chartered https://t.co/Gs34aTnb4j
Goldman Correctly Holds 7,600 Year‑End S&P Target
It appears Goldman was right not to reduce its 7600 YE SPX price target https://t.co/rCZSmegO7w
Tech Titans Hit 52‑Week Highs, Heat Map Shifts
Drawdown heat map looks a bit different now $NVDA $GOOGL $AMZN $TSM $AVGO all ~at 52wk highs https://t.co/1DXB8SylAf
S&P 500 Hits Record, Gains 12.5% Over Four Weeks
S&P 500 record high.. up 4 weeks in a row.. +12.5% in that stretch @stockcharts https://t.co/LwE87EC6mR
ITA Aerospace & Defense Suffers Second-W
$ITA Aerospace & Defense 2nd-worst week since late 2020... odd with oil up and the war ongoing -7% https://t.co/xWZSAtzZld
Tech ETF XLK Surges 21%, Outperforms S&P 500
There's 1 sector ETF beating the S&P 500 this month.. $XLK tech.. up 21% https://t.co/QfPQ8uGRJh
SOX Rides 18‑day Winning Streak, Gains 4% Today
$SOX perfect April continues... up 18 in a row +4% a banger today too https://t.co/eR5Iha571n
Market's EPS Surprise Reaction Remains Muted
Market Rewarding Positive EPS Surprises Slightly Less Than Average @factset also punishing negative EPS surprises reported by S&P 500 companies for Q1 less than average. https://t.co/QQufKB4FnT
S&P 500 Forward P/E Tops 5‑Year and 10‑Year Averages
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.9. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.9). @factset https://t.co/spURH0fHEF
Most S&P 500 Firms Beat EPS and Revenue, Grow 15%
84% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, and 81% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. @factset The blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 15.1% https://t.co/Nsrr48cr7k
Blue‑Collar Chip Rally Signals US IS
Harnett BofA: upside breakout blue collar semis (ON, STM, MCHP, TXN...) implies surge in US ISM to >60 https://t.co/HFxKZOdFGN
Intel Spikes After Record Q1, Tops Chip P/E
$INTC Intel surges on a blowout Q1, ranks the highest forward P/E of any large-cap chip stock @finviz_com $SMH https://t.co/Pk7bCzcrLc
WTI Crude Slides From $98 to $94 Today
WTI crude oil from near $98 at 6am ET to $94 briefly a moment ago https://t.co/fFM4s4uIt1
Yields Rise as Market Tests New Fed Chair
The market often tests a new Fed chair... Yields up in 3mo after Fed Chair starts. BofA Hartnett https://t.co/uJHPiLrNsf
BofA Says April Dot Plot Would Appear More Hawkish
BofA: The dot plot would look more hawkish if it were published at the April meeting https://t.co/nN8P0rQug7
BofA Predicts March PCE
BofA: We expect headline PCE inflation to jump to 3.4% y/y in March on the back of the spike in gas prices. The saving rate would probably fall significantly, to 3.1% https://t.co/dorT1DTMid
Balanced 25/25/25/25 Portfolio Yields 26% YTD
BofA Hartnett: “sleep like a baby” 25/25/25/25 stock/bonds/cash/commodity portfolio tracking 26% YTD, best year since ‘33 https://t.co/NCGhsf54CS
Tariff Revenues Slip While Effective Rate Stays Near 9%
BofA: Tariff revenues have been declining since their October peak, with the effective tariff rate reaching 8.7% in February despite the SCOTUS ruling being towards the end of that month https://t.co/lkk5dMwUze
Asian Economies Face Staggered Fertility Shock and Aging
Asian economies are undergoing a “fertility shock”, with aging unfolding at different speeds: Japan and Korea ahead, China and Thailand follow, while India is still young, BofA https://t.co/lHJqcEGcCA
Warsh Backs Trimmed-Mean, Median Inflation Metrics
The Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, noted during his testimony that he prefers “underlying” inflation gauges, such as “trimmed average” and “median” inflation. Here are the Cleveland Fed’s comparable measures. @augurinfinity https://t.co/9qyOInml8k https://t.co/dP07boVyym
April Data Shows Consumer Spending Slowing Sharply
Pantheon Macroeconomics: More timely data for April indicates that consumer spending is already slowing sharply @augurinfinity https://t.co/9qyOInml8k https://t.co/CRJODJYxDu
Commodities Win High Inflation;
GS: Commodities have tended to outperform in periods of high and rising inflation but with falling inflation real estate and infrastructure stocks have tended to perform better https://t.co/uKhMnG8nTd
Retail Sales Surge Fueled by Gasoline, Weather, Refunds
Retail Sales: Retail sales strength was driven primarily by higher gasoline sales and other temporary factors... such as warm weather and larger tax refunds. @augurinfinity https://t.co/9qyOInml8k https://t.co/tBmvgFvoEf
SPY Faces Dual Gap Fill: Bulls Vs. Bears
$SPY gap fill soon? A couple of them.. one for the bulls and one for the bears... @stockcharts I got gappy in this week's @stockcharts market round-up https://t.co/czBIDE9RHn https://t.co/zDz8o6yPIs
Tech Leads Sector Rotation, Reviving Equity Momentum
"While there was some handwringing about weak breadth over the weekend, it’s important to note that sector rotation has played a starring role in the recent equity drama. Tech stocks have sprung back to life..." More from me on @stockcharts $SPY...
Gap‑filling Myth Debunked: Not All Gaps Close
"As a reminder, gaps are measured by the period’s closing price and the subsequent period’s opening price. The thinking is that there’s unfinished business on the chart. In Japan, they say there’s an open window that must be closed. In Western...
Dow Surges 11.3% in Three Days, Biggest Rally Since 1930s
Dow Transports +11.3% last 3 days.. best rally since COVID...among the biggest jumps back to the 1930s @stockcharts https://t.co/Ng9Zzel9yw
US Small Caps Outpace International Stocks This Year
US small caps are having an awesome year... $IJR +13.5% Beating even international stocks $VEU +10.5% https://t.co/gZGoFRf9d6
Core PCE Inflation Projected at 2.2% by 2026
GS We Expect Core PCE Inflation Net of Tariff Effects to Fall to 2.2% by the End of 2026 https://t.co/ckLILK225L
Stocks Rebound Post‑war; Gold Down, Rates Up
BofA: What Matters Today: The stock market has recovered from the start of the war, but gold remains lower and interest rates higher https://t.co/l2Md6r6thW
US Stocks Peaked; Oil and Yields Stay Elevated
GS: US equities are through the highs, but oil and yields are still well above pre-war levels https://t.co/aMwCrKHBwC
Oil Spikes While Stocks and Commodities Slide
$SPY -0.5% $QQQ -0.5% $IWM -0.9% $EEM -1.5% $TLT -0.2% $USO +5.4% $IBIT -3.2% $GLD -1.2% $XLE +1.4% https://t.co/mpRZrC3jG7
Upcoming Week: Retail Sales, PMIs, and Sentiment Data
Nothing tomorrow. Retail Sales Tuesday. Quiet Wednesday. Flash April PMIs Thursday. UMich Friday (may not get the official lowest consumer sentiment on record... we'll see) https://t.co/MQfx9DdMUJ
Policy Shifts Set to Accelerate Growth by 2026
MS: We see Fed and fiscal policy, deregulation and fading tariff headwinds all contributing to a growth acceleration in 2026 https://t.co/jEapo33q0x
Hormuz Disruption Could Push Oil Above $130, Trigger Demand Collapse
MS: Tail Risks Would Drive Oil Into Demand Destruction Territory A prolonged disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would require oil prices to rise into demand destruction territory, historically above of $130 Distribution of Inflation-Adjusted Oil Prices https://t.co/Hw1dB85crz
Industrial Valuations Lag Record Behind S&P 500
S&P 500 sector valuations.. record gap between Industrials and the SPX Index, I hear https://t.co/k2tLMv610Z
Russell 2000 EPS Growth Outpaces S&P 500
18% S&P 500 EPS growth seen this year... just 11% for the S&P 500 EW. But 44% for the Russell 2000. GS https://t.co/ZYTwDJ60Km
Top 10 US Firms Hit Record Earnings Share
The 10 largest US companies haven't contributed this much to total earnings in the modern era GS https://t.co/KBJshEbLTw
Productivity Surge Returns: Early Signs of New Boom
MS: We Are Likely in the Early Stages of Another Productivity Boom Productivity Growth Appears To Be Turning Higher Again https://t.co/M5GiqJzWRW
U.S. Household Energy Use Hits Historic Low
Energy consumption as percentage of total household consumption (%) U.S. Energy Consumption Is at a Historical Lows https://t.co/l0SGdTtv94