Mortgage Rates Have Surged Far Beyond 4.95%
4 years ago, we thought a 4.95% mortgage was steep. That was cute. #OTD from me on @ClementsMoney https://t.co/nU3mkGlWHf https://t.co/aecygolvLT
Past $90‑$100 Oil Deemed Normal, Now Sparks Panic
Pretty wild how WTI crude oil averaged $90-$100 from late 2010 to late 2014.. and everyone just assumed that was normal. Total freakout today... (even with significantly higher average and median hourly earnings) https://t.co/L6XCC4Wf8y
Gas Prices Near $4, Expected Spike to $4.20 Soon
Gas prices steady under $4, but I think the average will jump quickly to $4.20 by mid next week @gasbuddy @gasbuddyguy https://t.co/AWxp7hHZsD
2024 S&P 500 Slump Joins Rare Historic Lows
The S&P 500 -7% YTD Since 1983, only 2001, 2008, 2009, and 2020 had a worse return through March 27 https://t.co/ULDpN7L6wH
Nasdaq 100 P/E Drops Below Russell 2000 Valuation
Wow - Nasdaq 100 P/E now below that of the Russell 2000.. fractionally ... 24x GS https://t.co/L1wgeQ1E24
Fed Futures Show 28% Chance of October Hike
Fed Fund futures market is loose.. now just a 28% chance of a hike by October https://t.co/xszONB6nqL
Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Staples Lead Gains; Tech, Communications Falter
$XLE $XLB $XLU $XLP nice gains this week $XLRE $XLV $XLI $XLY $XLF modest losses $XLK $XLC rekt @KoyfinCharts https://t.co/3l41610FAi
VIX Hits Highest Since 2025, Predicts 2.2% Rise
1-day $VIX highest since Tax Day 2025 33.5.. implying a 2.2% move by Monday's close https://t.co/VEUpmCMZmc
Homebuilders, Banks, Utilities, Materials, Europe Rally Amid QQQ Dip
This week: $QQQ -3.3% $VEU -0.2% $IJR +1.1% Homebuilders, regional banks, Utes, Materials, and Europe(!) nicely up last 5 days. https://t.co/5i4ZlLx6rI
Citi Holds S&P 500 Target Despite Iran Tensions and Pullback
Citi holds firm on S&P 500 target despite Iran tensions and the current market pullback ... the market won't bottom until the sellside slashes YE targets https://t.co/wcQjQH879W
Analysts Forecast 29% S&P 500 Rise in Year
Industry Analysts Project 29% Increase in S&P 500 Price Over the Next 12 Months @factset https://t.co/7KtJzSkyej
S&P 500 Earnings Set for Sixth Double‑digit Quarter
Q1 2026 S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow 13.0% YoY, marking a sixth straight quarter of double-digit gains. @factset https://t.co/9e3Ce7uvHP
Tech and Communications Services Lead Weakest Sectors This Week
Tech & Comm Services by far the weakest sectors this week so far @koyfincharts https://t.co/fvjDWdZzFu
Three-Year Bull Markets Often Last a Fourth Year
Bull markets that reach a third year typically extend into a fourth. @soberlook Fisher Investments https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/sBX0mRXRR7
AI Pressure Drags Credit, Software; Bonds Inch Higher
Mag 7, credit card stocks, software are getting whacked... AI has long knives out... $RSP -0.3% $MDY $IWM -0.4% $VEU +0.2% $AGG now up.. +0.1% https://t.co/EEjbRTBI25
Short‑Term Inflation Expectations Spike, Long‑Term Dip
UMich biggest sour swing since April 2025.. 1yr inflation expectations surge to 3.8%... but the long-term inflation outlook was down a tick https://t.co/jKnBGuulSH
Wells Fargo Forecasts Gold Surpassing $6,000 by Year‑end
Gold seen well above $6,000 by year-end despite recent struggles, Wells Fargo says $GLD @seekingalpha https://t.co/aUuFstZJDx
QQQ Posts Unusual 3.5%
$QQQ with a rare negative return over the last 6 months well, not that rare.. but 3.5% is material https://t.co/sPGVWoNt6b
US Stocks Dominate Top 10, Cover 63% Global Market
Weight in top 10 stocks: $VTI 32% USA (63% of the global stock market) $VEU 14% ex-USA (37% of the global stock market) https://t.co/1v1pdFpniW
Bluesky Activity Spikes Post-Musk, Then Wanes
Bluesky saw a surge in activity following Elon Musk’s political involvement in late 2024, but engagement has since declined. @soberlook The Update https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/SdRLZVcZMc
5‑7‑Year Treasurys Historically Yielded 6‑6.5%
Back in the day, on average, you could get 6-6.5% on 5-7yr Treasurys @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/rb6v4PeHGs
National Hurricane Center Expands Services Despite Budget Cuts
Great to see all these new National Hurricane Center features and services... I thought their budget was getting gutted?? I guess it all worked out. https://t.co/Pg10sCbvOn
Investors Underweight International as Market Shifts Toward 50/50 Split
Imagine if the global stock market reverted to 50/50 US/ex-US... doesn't seem like folks are positioned for it.. ...in today's environment, "we are bullish international" means having like a 10% allocatoin to it lol $EFA $EEM $ACWI $VEU https://t.co/bSBFac5qch
Just 28% Say It’s a Good Time to Job Hunt
Gallup: Only 28% of US employees now say it is a good time to find a quality job. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/u0BrFnPngN
XLF Poised for Six-Day Winning Streak
$XLF trying to sneak green.. would be a 6-day winning streak More from me: https://t.co/UKggIGLeI1 https://t.co/neQp5IrWeZ
AI‑heavy Sectors See Slower Wage Growth
DB: Sectors with higher AI adoption have shown a more significant deceleration in wage growth. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/a0GkxtUZTB
RBOB Futures at $2.21 Forecast $3.15 Pump Price
March 2027 RBOB gasoline futures $2.21, implying $3.15 at the pump by the winter https://t.co/TkEv0pc6Zf
Current S&P Dip Is Normal, Not Bearish
The S&P 500 is 5.9% from its 52-week high. The median S&P 500 stock drawdown is 16.6%. And that's very normal. Don't let anyone tell you it's somehow bearish or indicative of extra risk in the market. https://t.co/E1RyD8z4LQ
S&P Slumps While Broader Markets Gain 3% YTD
The S&P 500 is -3.4% YTD But everything else is up... US SMIDs, ex-US.. +2.5% to +3.7% https://t.co/8nTZBWpDKU
IG Index Spread Returns to Near‑Unchanged Level
The IG index spread of 84bps is now back near unchanged levels since February 27 https://t.co/44eACVJ587
S&P 500 Forward EPS Hits Record $332, SMIDs Surge
S&P 500 forward EPS a record high of $332 SMIDs also yodeling higher over the last six months @yardeni https://t.co/BfA01cKlKd
S&P 500 Stays Below 200‑Day Moving Average
4 days below the 200dma for the S&P 500 @stockcharts More thoughts from me: https://t.co/q4uxCqxeRV https://t.co/dXZykXt9ov
AI: The Biggest Cybersecurity Catalyst in Two Decades
AI presents most significant catalyst cybersecurity industry has experienced in 20 years: Wedbush @divestech @seekingalpha https://t.co/NNoN66CtQG
Core PCE Inflation Hits 2.93% YoY in February
GS: We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.32% in February (vs. 0.31% previously), corresponding to a YoY rate of +2.93%. https://t.co/qdzutjc5RO
Diesel Prices Fell Over 25% in Real Terms
Diesel was $7.25 in real dollars back in July 2008, $6.51 in June 2022 @jkempenergy .. $5.38 in real-time. I'd like to see @JeffWeniger work his magic on this chart https://t.co/u3Tn1K8vRc
Barclays Lifts 2026 S&P 500 Target to 7,650
Barclays raises 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 despite Middle East, inflation risks https://t.co/UIix0xSpIM
VIX at 25 Signals Bearish Market Comfort
$VIX at 25 is pretty much right where the stock market bears want to see it (I posted an X article this morning for my subscribers about this) https://t.co/nM3ANvkYbo
May RBOB Price Drop Signals Lower National Average
May soon becomes the RBOB prompt.. it's $2.89... implying a $3.80-$3.85 national average (down from today's $3.99 level) https://t.co/0eD1CGzOZ5
Is XLF's Rally a Dead‑Cat Bounce or Bullish Bellwether?
$XLF vs $SPY ... is this just a dead-cat bounce? Or a bullish bank bellwether? I'll dig into it over at @stockcharts today... https://t.co/MhlcvVnB8k
SPY Up 16% YoY, Global & SMID Stocks Outperform
Liberation Day crash, a war with oil to $100... and $SPY is +16% YoY @stockcharts International stocks and SMIDs even better $VEU $VXF https://t.co/Gk0s6YgEPV
Big Tech Valuations Drop Below 20x Earnings
$MSFT now below 20x earnings... $AVGO 18x $NVDA 16x $META 17x out-year earnings estimates @finviz_com https://t.co/i1ijeByOv6
Broad Market Breadth: 60% of S&P
Good breadth today (if you're a bull) @stockcharts 60% of SPX names were up... $MDY $IJR $IWM higher https://t.co/pH2LtE4VaQ
Gold's 10-Day Decline Hits Record, Yet GLD Rises
Physical gold down 10 straight days... a record... but $GLD was up today by 0.03% @stockcharts https://t.co/VFPXaVWobA
Gen Z, Millennials Boost Discretionary Spending on Tech, Dining
BofAI: Gen Z and Millennials have seen the most improvement in discretionary spending, especially on electronics and restaurants https://t.co/lokfH0dJN0
Redbook Sales Jump 6.7% YoY, Spending Remains Strong
Redbook retail sales ... no sign of consumer spending stress yet +6.7% YoY WE March 21 https://t.co/8GFoXUdydC
Deutsche Bank Predicts US CPI Near 4% in May
Deutsche Bank forecasts US CPI to hit 3.81% in April and 4.02% in May. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/R7pCnJYmkg
Fed Rate Outlook Shifts Higher Yet Remains Dovish
BofA: Naming the 2026 dots The distribution of dots shifted higher in March, but the voting members still lean dovish and expect to ease this year. https://t.co/Qklr1A2um1
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plummets 98% Below Normal
GS: We Estimate Based on Reported Vessel Counts that Average Daily Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz Are Down 98% From Their Normal Levels (4-Day Moving Average) https://t.co/af4DPzafNM
Asia's Jet Fuel Demand Crumbling, Oil Outlook Dims
GS: Increasing Evidence of Oil Demand Destruction, Especially in Asia and for Jet Fuel https://t.co/ZXj2aGuaMX
December 2026 PCE Inflation Projected at 3.1%
GS: We Now Expect December 2026 Headline PCE Inflation of 3.1%, 1pp Above Our Pre-War Forecast; Both Headline and Core PCE Could Peak Higher in a More Severe Risk Scenario https://t.co/sMwHyf6s7N
